南华期货锡风险管理日报 2025年8月26日 南华有色金属研究团队 肖宇非 投资咨询证号：Z0018441 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 锡价格波动率（日度） | 最新收盘价 | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率 | 当前波动率历史百分位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 269570 | 245000-263000 | 14.36% | 26.1% | source： 同花顺,南华研究 锡风险管理建议（日度） | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 现货敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | 套保比例 | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 库存管理 | 产成品库存偏高，担心价格下跌 | 多 | 做空沪锡主力期货合约 | 沪锡主力期货合约 | 卖出 | 75% | 275000附近 | | | | | 卖出看涨期权 | SN2511C275000 | 卖出 | 25% | 波动率合适时 | | 原料管理 | 原料库存较低，担心价格上涨 | 空 | 做多沪锡主力期货合约 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of tin remain stable. There are both positive and negative factors affecting the tin market. Positive factors include the easing of Sino - US tariff policies, the semiconductor sector being in an expansion cycle, and Myanmar's production resumption falling short of expectations. Negative factors are the volatility of tariff policies, Myanmar's production resumption, and the semiconductor sector's slowdown in expansion and transition to a contraction cycle [3][4][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Price and Volatility - The latest closing price of tin is 268,110 yuan/ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 245,000 - 263,000 yuan/ton. The current volatility is 15.18%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 28.8% [2]. 3.2 Risk Management Suggestions - **Inventory Management**: For those with high finished - product inventory and worried about price drops, it is recommended to short the main Shanghai tin futures contract at around 290,000 yuan/ton with a 100% hedging ratio and sell call options (SN2508C275000) at a suitable volatility with a 25% hedging ratio [2]. - **Raw Material Management**: For those with low raw - material inventory and worried about price increases, it is recommended to long the main Shanghai tin futures contract at around 230,000 yuan/ton with a 50% hedging ratio and sell put options (SN2508P245000) at a suitable volatility with a 25% hedging ratio [2]. 3.3 Futures and Spot Data - **Futures Data**: The latest prices of Shanghai tin futures (main, continuous 1, and continuous 3) are 268,110 yuan/ton, 268,110 yuan/ton, and 267,880 yuan/ton respectively, with no daily change. The LME tin 3M price is 33,565 US dollars/ton, down 245 US dollars (- 0.72%), and the Shanghai - London ratio is 8.01, up 0.15 (1.91%) [6]. - **Spot Data (Weekly)**: The price of Shanghai Non - ferrous tin ingots is 267,200 yuan/ton, up 5,400 yuan (2.06%); 1 tin premium is 600 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan (- 14.29%); 40% tin concentrate is 255,200 yuan/ton, up 5,400 yuan (2.16%); 60% tin concentrate is 259,200 yuan/ton, up 5,400 yuan (2.13%); the price of solder bar (60A) in Shanghai Non - ferrous is 173,750 yuan/ton, up 3,500 yuan (2.06%); the price of solder bar (63A) in Shanghai Non - ferrous is 181,250 yuan/ton, up 3,500 yuan (1.97%); the price of lead - free solder is 273,250 yuan/ton, up 5,000 yuan (1.86%) [10][13]. 3.4 Import and Processing Data - The latest tin import profit and loss is - 17,212.76 yuan/ton, down 2,572.25 yuan (17.57%); 40% tin ore processing fee is 12,200 yuan/ton with no change; 60% tin ore processing fee is 10,550 yuan/ton with no change [15]. 3.5 Inventory Data - **Shanghai Futures Exchange Inventory (Daily)**: The total tin warehouse receipt quantity is 6,750 tons, up 199 tons (3.04%); the warehouse receipt quantity in Guangdong is 4,214 tons, up 24 tons (0.57%); the warehouse receipt quantity in Shanghai is 1,611 tons, up 175 tons (12.19%); the total LME tin inventory is 2,175 tons with no change [17].