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油脂产业期现日报-20251117
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-11-17 07:00
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports - **Palm Oil**: In Malaysia, the expected record - high production in 2025 may pressure the benchmark price, but Indonesia's B85 policy supports the market. Dalian palm oil futures are in an upward - trending oscillation and may continue to strengthen in the short - term, but there is a risk of decline after facing resistance below 9000 yuan [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: The USDA report's less - than - expected reduction in US soybean production led to a decline in CBOT soybeans and soy oil. In China, high inventory and weak downstream demand may cause short - term callbacks in Dalian soybean oil [1]. - **Corn**: Due to factors like farmers' price - holding, logistics issues, and demand from deep - processing and feed sectors, corn has a short - term supply - demand imbalance. The price may rebound but is limited by supply pressure, with attention on the 2200 - 2220 pressure level [3]. - **Sugar**: India's export policy and Brazil's approaching end of the harvest season make the sugar market relatively calm. The price of raw sugar is expected to oscillate around 14 cents/pound, and the domestic sugar market is likely to maintain an oscillating trend next week [7][8]. - **Cotton**: The 11 - month USDA report is bearish for cotton prices. In China, the short - term pressure from new cotton supply and weak downstream demand are offset by the relatively low inventory of spinning enterprises, resulting in short - term price pressure within a range [9]. - **Meal**: The USDA's November report lacks significant positive factors. With high domestic soybean inventory and expected reserve rotation, the meal market is expected to have wide - range oscillations [11]. - **Eggs**: High egg production inventory and weak demand lead to a short - term supply - demand imbalance. Although the decline in egg prices has slowed and the willingness to support prices has increased, the market is expected to remain in a weak, oscillating state this week [15]. - **Pigs**: Weak spot prices and high market supply pressure the price, but there is support at low levels. The overall slow progress of November's planned slaughter may boost the price. The market is in an oscillating pattern, and the 3 - 7 reverse spread strategy can be continued [17]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Oils and Fats - **Soybean Oil**: On November 14, the spot price in Jiangsu was 8590 yuan/ton, up 0.35% from the previous day; the futures price of Y2601 was 8256 yuan/ton, down 0.72%; the basis was 334 yuan/ton, up 36.89% [1]. - **Palm Oil**: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8590 yuan/ton, up 0.23%; the futures price of P2601 was 8644 yuan/ton, down 1.23%; the basis was - 54 yuan/ton, up 70.33%. The import cost was 9112.8 yuan/ton, down 0.76%, and the import profit was - 469 yuan/ton, down 8.89% [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The spot price of third - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 10290 yuan/ton, up 0.29%; the futures price of OI601 was 9923 yuan/ton, down 0.52%; the basis was 367 yuan/ton, up 28.77% [1]. - **Spreads**: The soybean oil 01 - 05 spread was 228 yuan/ton, up 2.70%; the palm oil 01 - 05 spread was - 116 yuan/ton, down 13.73%; the rapeseed oil 01 - 05 spread was 499 yuan/ton, up 1.63%. The spot soybean - palm oil spread was 0 yuan/ton, up 100%; the 2601 soybean - palm oil spread was - 732 yuan/ton, up 3.68%. The spot rapeseed - soybean oil spread was 1700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the 2601 rapeseed - soybean oil spread was 1667 yuan/ton, up 0.48% [1]. 3.2 Corn and Corn Starch - **Corn**: The price of corn 2601 at Jinzhou Port was 2185 - 2210 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.05% - 0.45%. The basis was 25 yuan/ton, up 78.57%. The 1 - 5 spread was - 67 yuan/ton, up 5.63%. The price at Shekou was 2330 yuan/ton, up 0.43%. The import profit was 301 yuan/ton, up 5.00%. The number of remaining vehicles at Shandong deep - processing enterprises increased by 11.15%. The position was 1859009, down 1.16% [3]. - **Corn Starch**: The price of corn starch 2601 was 2505 yuan/ton, down 0.08%. The spot price in Changchun was 2510 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Weifang, it was 2750 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was 5 yuan/ton, up 66.67%. The 1 - 5 spread was - 76 yuan/ton, unchanged. The 01 spread between starch and corn was 320 yuan/ton, down 0.31%. The profit of Shandong starch was 35 yuan/ton, down 2.78%. The position was 301830, down 0.43% [3]. 3.3 Sugar - **Futures Market**: The price of sugar 2601 was 5470 yuan/ton, down 0.76%; the price of sugar 2605 was 5404 yuan/ton, down 0.53%. The price of ICE raw sugar was 14.85 cents/pound, up 2.91%. The 1 - 5 spread was 66 yuan/ton, down 16.46%. The position of the main contract was 370242, down 2.99%. The number of warehouse receipts was 8622, up 11.67%; the effective forecast was 183, down 84.53% [7]. - **Spot Market**: The price in Nanning was 5660 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Kunming, it was 5540 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis in Nanning was 256 yuan/ton, up 12.78%; in Kunming, it was 136 yuan/ton, up 27.10%. The price of imported Brazilian sugar (within quota) was 3978 yuan/ton, down 1.41%; (outside quota) was 5036 yuan/ton, down 1.47% [7]. - **Industry Situation**: The cumulative national sugar production was 1116.21 tons, up 12.03%; the cumulative sales were 1048.00 tons, up 9.17%. The cumulative sugar production in Guangxi was 646.50 tons, up 4.59%. The monthly sales in Guangxi were 26.66 tons, down 41.20%. The national cumulative sugar sales rate was 93.90%, down 2.60%; in Guangxi, it was 93.90%, up 4.80%. The national industrial inventory was 68.21 tons, down 41.20%; in Guangxi, it was 44.21 tons, up 62.90%; in Yunnan, it was 33.65 tons, up 26.60%. Sugar imports were 55.00 tons, up 37.50% [7]. 3.4 Cotton - **Futures Market**: The price of cotton 2605 was 13470 yuan/ton, down 0.19%; the price of cotton 2601 was 13450 yuan/ton, down 0.30%. The price of ICE US cotton was 64.14 cents/pound, down 0.68%. The 5 - 1 spread was 20 yuan/ton, up 300%. The position of the main contract was 556440, down 1.15%. The number of warehouse receipts was 4401, up 5.29%; the effective forecast was 643, down 26.77% [9]. - **Spot Market**: The arrival price of Xinjiang cotton (3128B) was 14594 yuan/ton, down 0.14%. The CC Index (3128B) was 14806 yuan/ton, down 0.09%. The FC Index (M: 1%) was 12913 yuan/ton, down 0.28%. The spread between 3128B and the 01 contract was 1124 yuan/ton, up 0.45%; between 3128B and the 05 contract was 1144 yuan/ton, up 1.78%. The spread between CC Index (3128B) and FC Index (M: 1%) was 1883 yuan/ton, up 1.23% [9]. - **Industry Situation**: The commercial inventory was 293.06 tons, up 70.4%; imports were 10.00 tons, up 42.9%; the bonded area inventory was 31.10 tons, up 8.0%. The inventory days of yarn were 26.12 days, up 3.5%. The cotton shipping volume out of Xinjiang was 53.46 tons, up 22.6%. The immediate processing profit of spinning enterprises was - 1796.60 yuan/ton, up 0.8%. The retail sales of clothing, footwear, and textiles were 1471.00 billion yuan, up 19.5%. The year - on - year growth rate of clothing, footwear, and textiles was 6.30%, up 34.0%. The year - on - year growth rate of textile yarn, fabric, and product exports was - 9.10%, down 242.1%; the year - on - year growth rate of clothing and clothing accessories exports was - 15.96%, down 100.2% [9]. 3.5 Meal - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 3060 yuan/ton, up 0.33%; the futures price of M2601 was 3092 yuan/ton, up 0.68%; the basis was - 32 yuan/ton, down 52.38%. The import crushing profit of Brazilian ships in February was - 7 yuan/ton, down 800% [11]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 2500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the futures price of RM2601 was 2490 yuan/ton, down 0.08%; the basis was 10 yuan/ton, up 25.00%. The import crushing profit of Canadian ships in January was 777 yuan/ton, down 3.48% [11]. - **Soybeans**: The spot price of soybeans in Harbin was 3920 yuan/ton, unchanged; the futures price of the main soybean contract was 4215 yuan/ton, up 2.08%; the basis was - 295 yuan/ton, down 41.15%. The spot price of imported soybeans in Jiangsu was 3950 yuan/ton, unchanged; the futures price of the second - grade soybean contract was 3803 yuan/ton, up 0.37%; the basis was 147 yuan/ton, down 8.70% [11]. - **Spreads**: The 01 - 05 spread of soybean meal was 244 yuan/ton, up 11.42%; the 01 - 05 spread of rapeseed meal was 65 yuan/ton, up 3.17%. The spot oil - meal ratio was 2.81, up 0.02%; the main - contract oil - meal ratio was 2.67, down 1.40%. The spot soybean - rapeseed meal spread was 560 yuan/ton, up 1.82%; the 2601 spread was 602 yuan/ton, up 3.97% [11]. 3.6 Eggs - **Futures Market**: The price of the 12 - contract was 3033 yuan/500KG, down 0.23%; the price of the 01 - contract was 3235 yuan/500KG, down 0.92%. The 12 - 01 spread was - 202 yuan/500KG, up 10.22% [15]. - **Spot Market**: The price in egg - producing areas was 2.98 yuan/jin, down 0.34%. The basis was - 51 yuan/500KG, down 6.54% [15]. - **Related Indicators**: The price of egg - laying chicken chicks was 2.80 yuan/feather, unchanged; the price of culled chickens was 4.04 yuan/jin, up 0.25%. The egg - feed ratio was 2.34, down 1.68%. The breeding profit was - 26.52 yuan/feather, down 8.51% [15]. 3.7 Pigs - **Futures Market**: The basis of the main contract was 582 yuan/ton, up 103.57%. The price of the 2605 - contract was 12195 yuan/ton, down 0.33%; the price of the 2601 - contract was 11775 yuan/ton, down 0.72%. The 1 - 5 spread was - 420 yuan/ton, down 12.00%. The position of the main contract was 130675, down 3.05% [17]. - **Spot Market**: The price in Henan was 12060 yuan/ton, up 60.0; in Shandong, it was 12190 yuan/ton, up 140.0; in Sichuan, it was 11340 yuan/ton, down 60.0; in Liaoning, it was 11640 yuan/ton, up 140.0; in Guangdong, it was 12450 yuan/ton, down 160.0; in Hunan, it was 11440 yuan/ton, down 70.0; in Hebei, it was 11970 yuan/ton, up 70.0 [17]. - **Related Indicators**: The daily slaughter volume of sample points was 162927, down 0.74%. The weekly white - strip price was 18.60 yuan, unchanged. The weekly price of piglets was 17.25 yuan/kg, up 1.47%; the weekly price of sows was 32.47 yuan/kg, unchanged. The weekly slaughter weight was 128.48 kg, up 0.14%. The weekly self - breeding profit was - 115 yuan/head, down 28.70%; the weekly purchased - pig breeding profit was - 206 yuan/head, down 17.15%. The monthly number of fertile sows was 40350000, down 0.07% [17].
长江期货粕类油脂月报-20251103
Chang Jiang Qi Huo· 2025-11-03 05:43
Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The document does not provide an investment rating for the industry. 2. Core Views - **Soybean Meal**: The opening of US soybean imports drives up costs, leading to an upward trend in domestic soybean meal prices. However, the upside is limited due to factors such as the high cost of US soybeans and the weakening of domestic demand growth [5][7]. - **Oils and Fats**: In the short - term, the market is in a volatile adjustment phase. Attention should be paid to the realization of positive factors from the producing areas. The prices of palm oil and rapeseed oil are under pressure, while soybean oil shows relatively stronger performance [78][80]. 3. Summary by Directory Soybean Meal - **Market Review**: As of October 31, the spot price in East China was 2950 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton monthly. The M2601 contract closed at 3021 yuan/ton, up 93 yuan/ton monthly. The basis price decreased by 30 yuan/ton [7][9]. - **Supply**: The USDA October report was delayed. US soybean exports accelerated, but China's actual purchases were limited. Brazilian old - crop sales pressure increased, and the new - crop planting progress was 50% as of October 31, lower than the same period last year [7]. - **Demand**: In 2025, the domestic aquaculture profit improved, and the high inventory of pigs and poultry supported the feed demand. The demand for soybean meal in the fourth quarter is expected to increase by more than 5% year - on - year [7]. - **Cost**: The planting cost of US soybeans in the 25/26 season is 1135 cents/bushel. The estimated bottom price of US soybeans is around 980 cents/bushel. The domestic soybean meal cost is calculated to be 3080 yuan/ton [7]. - **Market Outlook**: US soybean prices are expected to fluctuate around 1100 cents/bushel. Domestic soybean meal prices will follow the upward trend of import costs, but the performance is not as strong as that of US soybeans [7]. - **Strategy**: Slightly reduce M2601 long positions and re - enter at low prices. Lightly build long positions in M2605 and M2609 at low prices. Spot enterprises should sell the basis at high prices and roll long positions [7]. Oils and Fats - **Market Review**: As of October 31, palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil futures and spot prices showed different trends. Palm oil and rapeseed oil prices declined, while soybean oil prices were relatively stable [80][82]. - **Palm Oil**: In October, Malaysian palm oil production increased, and exports increased less than production, with an expected inventory build - up. In Indonesia, production is expected to increase by 10% in 2025, and the implementation of the B50 biodiesel policy may face obstacles. In the short - term, palm oil prices are under pressure, but there is support below [80]. - **Soybean Oil**: After the APEC meeting, China agreed to purchase US soybeans, which boosted the market sentiment. The high - level soybean crushing volume in September and the possible downward adjustment of the new - crop yield of US soybeans supported the short - term rebound of US soybean prices. In the long - term, the supply of domestic soybean oil is still sufficient, which limits the de - stocking speed [80]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The relationship between China and Canada has improved, and the possibility of Canadian rapeseed entering China has increased. The supply of rapeseed in Canada is expected to be abundant, but there is still a supply gap in the domestic market in the fourth quarter [80]. - **Market Outlook**: In the short - term, the upside of oils and fats is limited, but the adjustment range is restricted. In the long - term, attention should be paid to the implementation of biodiesel policies in Indonesia and the United States, the reduction of palm oil production in Southeast Asia, and the start of weather speculation in South America [80]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the support levels of soybean, palm, and rapeseed oil 01 contracts. Consider the strategy of narrowing the spread between rapeseed oil and soybean oil 01 contracts and widening the spread between soybean oil and palm oil 01 contracts [80].
长江期货粕类油脂周报-20250922
Chang Jiang Qi Huo· 2025-09-22 06:02
Report Information - Report Name: Yangtze River Futures Weekly Report on Meal and Oil [1] - Report Date: September 22, 2025 [1] - Researcher: Ye Tian [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Report's Core Viewpoints - **Soybean Meal**: Supply improvement is expected, and prices are likely to run weakly. Although the cost provides support, prices are unlikely to drop significantly. [5][7] - **Oils and Fats**: Fundamental support remains, and prices are expected to fluctuate at high levels. The decline in palm oil inventory accumulation and the supply gap in rapeseed before November are expected to limit the downward adjustment range of oil prices. [78][79] Summary by Directory Soybean Meal 1. Market Review - As of September 19, the spot price in East China was 2,930 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton week-on-week. The M2601 contract closed at 3,014 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan/ton week-on-week. The basis price increased by 20 yuan/ton to 01 - 90 yuan/ton. [7][9] 2. Fundamental Data Review - **Price**: Spot and futures prices of soybean meal declined, while the basis price increased. The price difference between regions showed different trends. [13] - **Supply**: The USDA September supply and demand report adjusted the US soybean planting area, yield, and ending stocks. Brazil has started sowing, and the domestic supply is abundant. [7] - **Demand**: In 2025, the domestic aquaculture profit improved, and the high inventory of pigs and poultry supported the demand for feed. The demand for soybean meal is expected to increase by more than 5% year-on-year in the fourth quarter. [7] - **Cost**: The planting cost of US soybeans in the 25/26 season is estimated to be 1,135 cents/bushel, and the bottom price of domestic soybean meal cost has risen to 3,030 yuan/ton. [7] 3. Key Data Tracking - **Global Supply and Demand**: Global soybean supply and demand are tightening, with production declining to 426 million tons and the production-consumption gap narrowing to 1.98 million tons. [15] - **US Soybean Inventory-to-Sales Ratio**: The US soybean inventory-to-sales ratio has tightened to 6.89%. [25] - **Pressing and Export Demand**: As of the week of September 4, the cumulative export of US soybeans in the 24/25 season was 50.1059 million tons, a decrease of 2.74% compared to the same period last year. [26] - **Soybean Growth**: As of September 12, the good and excellent rate of US soybeans was 63%, the defoliation rate was 41%, and the harvest progress was 5%. [31] - **Brazilian Export Sales**: As of the latest data, Brazil's MT sales progress reached 91.94%, and the overall sales progress was good. [32] - **Weather Conditions**: In the next two weeks, precipitation in the main US soybean-producing areas will be low, while precipitation in the main Brazilian soybean-producing areas will improve. [39] - **US Soybean Planting Cost**: The planting cost of US soybeans in the 25/26 season is 1,135 cents/bushel. [44] - **Import and Purchase**: The domestic purchase of Brazilian vessels in the near term is progressing steadily and quickly, while the purchase of vessels in the far term is slow. The domestic soybean supply is abundant before November, but the supply may be insufficient after November. [58] - **Livestock Inventory**: The high inventory of pigs and poultry supports the demand for soybean meal, and the bottom demand support for soybean meal is strengthened. [76] Oils and Fats 1. Market Review - As of the week of September 19, the palm oil 01 contract rose 20 yuan/ton to 9,316 yuan/ton, the soybean oil 01 contract rose 6 yuan/ton to 8,328 yuan/ton, and the rapeseed oil 01 contract rose 221 yuan/ton to 10,068 yuan/ton. [79] 2. Fundamental Data Review - **Palm Oil**: The MPOB August report showed that the Malaysian palm oil inventory increased to 2.2 million tons, in line with market expectations. In September, the production is expected to decline, and the export demand remains, so the inventory accumulation rate is expected to slow down. [79][85] - **Soybean Oil**: The USDA September report adjusted the US soybean production and ending stocks, with a neutral to bearish impact. The domestic soybean supply is sufficient in the short term, but the supply may tighten after November. [79] - **Rapeseed Oil**: The anti-dumping measures against Canadian rapeseed have affected imports, and there is a supply gap before November, which supports the price of rapeseed oil. However, policy uncertainties and high inventory levels limit the room for price increases. [79] 3. Key Data Tracking - **Malaysian Palm Oil**: The MPOB August report had a neutral impact. In September, the production is expected to decline, and the export demand remains, so the inventory accumulation rate is expected to slow down. [79][96] - **Indonesian Palm Oil**: As of the end of June, Indonesia's palm oil inventory decreased by 13% month-on-month to 2.53 million tons. The production in June rebounded strongly, but the demand was also strong, resulting in a continued decline in inventory. [105] - **Indian Oil Imports**: In August, India's total vegetable oil imports increased by 4.75% month-on-month to 1.62 million tons. The inventory as of the week of September 1 was 1.865 million tons, an increase of 8.68% month-on-month. [117] - **Malaysian High-Frequency Data**: The export and production data of Malaysian palm oil in September showed different trends, with the export volume increasing and the production volume decreasing. [119]
蛋白数据日报-20250901
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-09-01 11:34
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The USDA August report raised the US soybean yield to a historical high but unexpectedly lowered the 25/26 planting area, resulting in a tightened supply - demand balance for new - crop US soybeans. The domestic soybean inventory is at a high level, and the soybean inventory is expected to continue to accumulate until October and then start to decline. The supply - demand gap for soybean meal in the first quarter of next year depends on Sino - US policy changes. In the short term, the price of soybean meal is expected to be volatile [7][8] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Basis and Spread Data - On August 29, the basis of the soybean meal main contract in Dalian was 95, down 16; in Tianjin, no data was provided; in Rizhao, it was - 55, down 16. The 43% soybean meal spot basis in Zhangjiagang was - 15, down 16; in Dongguan, it was - 115, down 16; in Zhanjiang, it was - 85, down 6; in Fangcheng, it was - 75, down 16. The rapeseed meal spot basis in Guangdong was 9, down 13. The M1 - 5 spread was 235, up 10 [6] - The RM1 - 5 spread was 89, up 14. The soybean meal - rapeseed meal spot spread in the factory area was 300, and the soybean meal - rapeseed meal spread in the main contract was 542, down 14 [7] 2. International and Inventory Data - The US dollar to RMB exchange rate was 7.0884. The soybean CNF premium showed different trends for different months in Brazil. The domestic soybean inventory in ports and major oil mills was at a high level, and the soybean meal inventory was rising but lower than last year. The feed enterprise soybean meal inventory days were increasing [7] 3. Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply: The USDA August report adjusted the US soybean yield and planting area, and the 25/26 US soybean ending inventory was lowered. The US soybean good - to - excellent rate reached 69% this week. The domestic soybean arrival volume in September is expected to be over ten million tons, and the inventory is expected to accumulate until October. The supply - demand gap for soybean meal in the first quarter of next year depends on Sino - US policy changes [7][8] - Demand: Short - term high存栏 of pigs and poultry supports feed demand, but policy controls on pig存栏 and weight may affect long - term supply. The soybean meal price is cost - effective, but downstream transactions this week were cautious [8] 4. Market Outlook - The 101 contract is weak due to Sino - US negotiation expectations and state reserve releases, but the tight supply - demand of US soybeans supports the CBOT soybean price. The difference between US and Brazilian soybean CNF premiums has narrowed. The 001 contract is expected to have limited downside space and a short - term volatile trend [8]
卓创资讯:美豆需求端迎来利多国内豆粕需求不佳
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-08-19 03:12
Core Viewpoint - The recent increase in U.S. soybean futures prices, driven by strong domestic demand and favorable supply reports, is expected to stabilize above 1000 cents per bushel, with potential for further increases [1] Group 1: U.S. Soybean Market - The July soybean crush volume in the U.S. reached 195.699 million bushels, exceeding market expectations of 191.59 million bushels, indicating robust domestic demand [1] - The increase in soybean demand is primarily attributed to rising U.S. soybean oil consumption, with July soybean oil production reported at 2.348 billion pounds, showing growth both month-on-month and year-on-year [1] - The favorable demand conditions are supported by the recent comments from Trump urging China to purchase U.S. soybeans, alongside the positive supply-demand report [1] Group 2: Domestic Soybean Meal Market - Despite external support for soybean meal costs, domestic demand remains weak, with daily demand peaking at the beginning of August primarily driven by forward contracts for next year [1] - As of August 15, the daily transaction volume for soybean meal in August was 27.5 thousand tons, reflecting a lack of significant spot demand [1] - It is anticipated that the national average price for soybean meal will fluctuate between 3100 yuan/ton and 3200 yuan/ton by the end of August [1]
研客专栏 | USDA7月报告前瞻:国内豆粕还要大跌?
对冲研投· 2025-07-10 10:09
Core Viewpoint - The USDA's July supply and demand report is expected to show slight adjustments in soybean supply and inventory, with a focus on the 2024/25 and 2025/26 crop years, reflecting changes in planting area, export sales, and crushing capacity [1][2][3]. Group 1: Supply and Demand Analysis - For the 2024/25 crop year, U.S. soybean crushing reached 1.846 billion bushels by May, a year-on-year increase of 5.89%, nearing the annual growth target [2]. - As of June 19, weekly net sales of old crop soybeans were around 500,000 tons, with cumulative export sales at 49.47 million tons, leaving 880,000 tons to meet the export target [2]. - The 2025/26 crop year is projected to have a planting area of 83.38 million acres, slightly down from previous estimates, with a yield forecast maintained at 52.5 bushels per acre [3]. Group 2: Market Conditions - The CBOT soybean prices are fluctuating within a range of 1010-1080 cents per bushel, influenced by weather conditions and export demand, particularly from China [4]. - As of late June, approximately 12% of U.S. soybean planting areas were affected by drought, slightly down from the previous week but higher than the same period last year [4]. Group 3: Domestic Market Dynamics - Domestic soybean meal inventory levels were low prior to late June due to delayed imports and operational issues at crushing plants, but have since normalized as feed companies increased purchases [7]. - The price of soybean meal in East China dropped from 2910 yuan/ton in mid-June to 2810 yuan/ton by early July, reflecting changes in supply and demand dynamics [7][11]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The upcoming negotiations regarding U.S. agricultural product purchases by other countries may impact global soybean trade flows, potentially affecting domestic soybean meal prices [14]. - The uncertainty surrounding the resumption of U.S. soybean purchases by China could lead to increased competition between U.S. and South American soybeans, influencing market prices [14][15].