Core Viewpoint - The article draws parallels between the current economic situation in the U.S. and historical events from 40 years ago, particularly focusing on the potential for a repeat of the "Black Monday" stock market crash due to factors such as a weakening dollar and changes in Federal Reserve leadership [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Context - The U.S. dollar has depreciated nearly 10% this year, reaching a three-year low against major currencies, coinciding with Trump's return to the White House [1]. - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq have reached multiple all-time highs, driven by expectations of monetary easing and improved trade relations [2]. Group 2: Historical Comparison - The article references the "Plaza Accord" of 1985, which led to a significant decline in the dollar and a simultaneous rise in U.S. stock markets, with the dollar falling 36.5% against the yen and 30.8% to 36.6% against other major currencies over 17 months [2][4]. - Despite the dollar's decline, U.S. import prices did not significantly rise, aided by falling global oil prices, which helped maintain low inflation [4]. Group 3: Federal Reserve Leadership Impact - The market's confidence during the "Plaza Accord" era was largely attributed to then-Fed Chairman Paul Volcker's reputation for controlling inflation, which reassured investors [5]. - The transition to Alan Greenspan as Fed Chairman in 1987 marked a shift, as he failed to respond to critical market signals, leading to a loss of confidence and ultimately contributing to the "Black Monday" crash [6]. Group 4: Hypothetical Scenarios - The article posits that if Volcker had remained in charge, he likely would have acted to stabilize the dollar and control inflation, potentially preventing the market crash [7].

4月29日，前美联储副主席、债券巨头Pimco全球经济顾问理查德·克拉里达（Richard Clarida）在英国 《金融时报》发表题为《广场协议和卢浮宫协议的真正教训（The real lessons from the Plaza and Louvre accords）》的专栏文章，对1985年广场协议和1987年卢浮宫协议进行了深入剖析，并"纠正"了长期以来 人们对这两项协议成功因素的普遍认知。 Clarida表示，大家普遍认为1985年的广场协议和1987年的卢浮宫协议之所以成功，主要是靠各国联合出 手干预外汇市场，这才让当时过分强势的美元贬值，也缩小了美国的巨额贸易逆差。 但他认为，这其实是个"神话"，或者说，是个流传甚广的误解。 Clarida强调，真正起决定性作用的，其实是当时美国国内的货币政策和财政政策调整。 从事后看，这两个协议确实达到了目标：到1987年，美元确实有序贬值了；到1989年，美国贸易逆差占 GDP的比重也减少了三分之二。 文章指出，而正是因为这个结果，很多人，甚至一些专业人士都觉得，是各国央行联手在外汇市场上买 卖美元（也就是所谓的"干预"），才促成了美元贬值和贸易平衡。 Cl ...