责任编辑：王许宁 责任编辑：王许宁 亚洲交易时段新加坡元兑美元汇率呈现盘整走势，市场关注新加坡金融管理局可能进行外汇干预的前 景。马来亚银行分析师在外汇研究与策略报告中指出，周二新加坡元名义有效汇率已升至NEER波动区 间中点上方1.8%的峰值，预示潜在干预风险。金管局的货币政策框架以管理新元兑一篮子贸易加权货 币（即SGD NEER）为核心，政策实施需确保SGD NEER维持在预定区间内运行。美元/新加坡元现报 1.2804，几无变动。 亚洲交易时段新加坡元兑美元汇率呈现盘整走势，市场关注新加坡金融管理局可能进行外汇干预的前 景。马来亚银行分析师在外汇研究与策略报告中指出，周二新加坡元名义有效汇率已升至NEER波动区 间中点上方1.8%的峰值，预示潜在干预风险。金管局的货币政策框架以管理新元兑一篮子贸易加权货 币（即SGD NEER）为核心，政策实施需确保SGD NEER维持在预定区间内运行。美元/新加坡元现报 1.2804，几无变动。 ...

市场上多数观点认为，有关部门出手干预的汇率水平还要更靠后一些。有声音表示，"为了不 浪费（作为外汇干预资金来源的）外汇储备，可能要等到汇率超过1美元兑165日元区间之后 才会采取干预行动"…… 12月29日的日元对美元汇率为1美元兑156.0~156.4日元区间，呈现出缺乏方向的局面。 除了交易量减少之外，对外汇干预的警惕也在减弱。在日本银行（央行）货币政策决定会议 后的日元贬值局面下笼罩市场的紧张气氛为何出现缓解？市场参与者中流传的看法是："日本 政府和央行可能还无法真刀真枪地进行外汇干预"。 在12月29日的东京外汇市场上，因临近年底，交易参与者寥寥无几。"我们的工作在年末年 初也一如往常。并不打算为防备日元汇率剧烈波动和外汇干预而采取特殊应对措施"，理索纳 银行的客户经理中里信介表示。他表示，与客户交流时也发现对外汇干预的警惕出现减弱。 而在上周的前半周，市场氛围略有不同。19日，日本央行决定上调政策利率，但对加快加息 步伐的暗示很少，日元抛售动向扩大。22日，日元汇率一度跌至1美元兑157.5日元~157.9日 元区间，日元走弱、美元走强的情况加剧，对外汇干预的警惕升温。日本有关部门可能会在 美国市场 ...

"货币保卫战"突然打响！ 面对持续贬值的韩元汇率，韩国当局12月24日表示，将采取多项新税收措施以稳定外汇市场。另据韩媒报道， 韩国政府近两周来召开系列会议，并向各部门和机构下达了响应措施。受此刺激，韩元兑美元汇率直线猛拉， 日内一度大涨2.5%。 与此同时，日本政府也对汇率市场发出了最强硬的警告。据最新消息，日本财务大臣片山皋月（Katayama） 表示，针对脱离基本面的汇率波动，日本拥有采取"大胆行动"的"自由裁量权"。 韩国"救市" 构持有的法定外汇存款准备金支付利息。 当地时间12月24日，韩国当局表示，韩元过度疲软并非好事，外汇市场将很快就会看到政府的"坚定决心"。 韩国央行、韩国财政部表示，过去两周已多次召开会议讨论韩元近期走弱问题。同时，韩国财政部宣布，将采 取多项新税收措施以稳定外汇市场。 受上述消息刺激，韩元汇率直线爆拉，日内一度暴涨2.5%，最高升至1美元兑1443.79韩元。在此之前，韩元一 度贬值至1美元兑1485韩元，逼近2009年全球金融危机以来的最低水平。 据韩联社报道，韩国政府近两周来召开系列会议，并向各部门和机构下达了响应措施。这些措施能体现韩国政 府稳定汇市的坚定意志和政策 ...

2025 年 12 月 24 日 招银国际环球市场 | 市场策略 | 招财日报 全球市场观察 全球市场观察 每日投资策略 招银国际研究部 邮件：research@cmbi.com.hk | 环球主要股市上日表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 收市价 | | 升跌（%） | | | | 单日 | 年内 | | 恒生指数 | 25,774 | -0.11 | 28.49 | | 恒生国企 | 8,914 | -0.29 | 22.28 | | 恒生科技 | 5,489 | -0.69 | 22.85 | | 上证综指 | 3,920 | 0.07 | 16.95 | | 深证综指 | 2,492 | -0.02 | 27.32 | | 深圳创业板 | 3,205 | 0.41 | 49.65 | | 美国道琼斯 | 48,442 | 0.16 | 13.86 | | 美国标普 500 | 6,910 | 0.46 | 17.48 | | 美国纳斯达克 | 23,562 | 0.57 | 22.01 | | 德国 DAX | 24,340 | 0.23 | 22.26 ...

日本央行上调基准利率后日元兑美元仍不改走弱之势，这使得市场的关注焦点转向若日元进一步贬值， 日本财务省可能采取何种应对措施。 不过，片山皋月在采访中指出，官员们可能会根据具体情况改变他们在市场中采取行动的方式。 "每种情况都不尽相同，因此指望每次都遵循相同模式是错误的，"她谈到财务省在干预方面的策略时 称。 口头警告关键措辞 财务大臣片山皋月12月22日接受采访时表示，若汇率走势偏离基本面，东京方面拥有采取大胆行动 的"自主决定权"，发出她迄今最强硬的警告。 日本央行12月19日加息至30年来的最高水平后，日元兑美元汇率一度跌至157.78。2024年日元在160附 近波动时，当局曾四次出手，给干预门槛在何处提供了一个大致参考。 日本官员通常否认有干预外汇市场的红线，而是辩称只有突发性、无序或投机性的市场波动才需要采取 行动。最近，他们开始援引9月达成的美日外汇协议，该协议规定在市场过度波动时可适当进行干预。 在采取直接干预手段前，日本官员通常会向市场发出一系列经过斟酌的警告，通过措辞严谨的表述来暗 示其离采取行动还有多远。 当官员们的表态从描述外汇市场转向谈论采取行动时，这是他们进入高度戒备状态的关键信号之 ...

"这些走势显然并不符合基本面，而更像是投机行为。"片山在接受采访时表示，指的是上周五日元的快 速贬值。"针对这类走势，我们已经明确表态将果断行动，这一点也写在日美财长联合声明里。" 片山在暗示可能进行直接汇市干预的同时，也谈到：随着高市早苗政府推动更强劲的经济增长，日本短 期内的财政压力可能会加大——这同样是投资者关注的重点。 片山的表态，发生在外界再度猜测财务省可能出手干预之际。此前日本央行在高度"预告"的情况下，将 借贷成本上调至30年来最高水平，但日元在加息后反而走弱。日本央行行长植田和男在会后记者会上的 发言，被部分市场人士解读为对再次加息的信号不够强硬，结果触发日元进一步下滑。 日本政府，刚刚向外汇市场发出"救市"信号。 日本财务大臣片山皋月表示，日本在面对与基本面不符的汇率波动时"有充分回旋余地"采取果断行动。 这是她迄今对投机资金最强硬的警告之一。此前，日本央行加息后日元仍走弱，引发市场对当局可能干 预的猜测。 片山拒绝评论当前汇率水平，并称并不存在一个明确的"基准线"来界定何为过度或无序波动。 "每次情况都不同，所以如果期待每次都出现同样的模式，那是不对的。"她说，并解释称财务省在干预 问题上 ...

周一美盘前，日本财务大臣片山皋月（Satsuki Katayama）表示，对于偏离经济基本面的汇率波动，日本拥有"自主行动权"，可采取果断措施应对。这是她 在日元近期持续走弱后，向市场投机者发出的迄今最强烈警告。 她的前任加藤胜信（Katsunobu Kato）与美国财政部长斯科特・贝森特（Scott Bessent）于9月签署了这份汇率联合声明。声明明确两国坚持由市场决定汇率 的基本立场，同时确认在汇率出现过度波动等特定情况下，仍保留干预空间。 片山皋月称："这意味着我们拥有自主行动权。" 去年，日本财务省为支撑日元汇率，在外汇市场投入约1000亿美元，当时日元兑美元汇率一度跌至160附近。 片山皋月于周一接受彭博社采访时称："上周五日元大幅贬值，这种走势显然与经济基本面不符，纯属投机行为。"她还表示："针对此类波动，正如日美财 长联合声明中所述，我们已明确将采取果断行动。" 美元兑日元闻讯短线下挫50点，最低跌至156.87。 在暗示可能直接出手干预汇市的同时，片山皋月还提到，由于首相高市早苗（Sanae Takaichi）领导的政府正全力推动经济实现更强劲增长，日本短期财政 状况或将进一步恶化，这也是投 ...

Group 1 - UBS analysts predict that the US stock market will remain tense in 2024 due to investor concerns about missing out on AI gains and fears of a potential bubble, with volatility expected to continue until 2026 [1] - Goldman Sachs forecasts a 14% growth in Chinese corporate earnings in 2024, which could boost stock market performance, with a potential 10% valuation re-rating and a projected 38% increase in the Chinese stock market by 2027 [1] - JPMorgan expects the Bank of Japan to continue raising interest rates to address concerns over the weak yen, predicting two rate hikes in 2024, reaching a policy rate of 1.25% by the end of 2026 [1] Group 2 - Nomura's report indicates uncertainty regarding the specific level that would trigger intervention by Japanese authorities, but bold actions may be imminent as the yen strengthens [2] - Danske Bank analysts suggest that the euro may strengthen against the dollar in the medium term due to anticipated Fed rate cuts and stable ECB rates, with a narrowing gap in real interest rates benefiting the euro [2] Group 3 - CICC emphasizes the importance of policy measures to boost consumption, noting that the macroeconomic backdrop has weakened consumer recovery, but signals of support for domestic demand could lead to a turnaround [3] - China Merchants Bank reports that Japan's interest rate hike may exert pressure on global financial conditions, with a potential long-term impact on liquidity and bond markets [4] - CITIC Securities highlights the need to focus on changes in consumer structure for long-term investment, with an emphasis on new products, technologies, channels, and markets [5][6] Group 4 - CITIC Securities anticipates a mild reduction in policy rates in 2026, with a potential decrease of 10 basis points in one to two instances, which could stabilize bank net interest margins [7] - CITIC Securities continues to favor the AI computing sector, noting strong demand for computing power as AI models evolve [8] - CITIC Securities reports that the US CPI has unexpectedly cooled, which may lead to an upward revision of Fed rate cut expectations, positively impacting precious and industrial metal prices [9] Group 5 - China Securities expects listed insurance companies to achieve double-digit growth in core premium income and value in 2026, driven by asset reallocation and a favorable equity market [10] - Huatai Securities suggests continuing to position for a spring market rally, focusing on sectors like AI, batteries, and consumer goods that are expected to improve [11]

Group 1 - The Japanese government is concerned about the recent one-sided and sudden fluctuations in the foreign exchange market, particularly after the Bank of Japan's monetary policy meeting, indicating a potential need for intervention if the yen continues to weaken towards the 160 level [1] - Following the Bank of Japan's decision to maintain interest rates, the yield on the benchmark 10-year Japanese government bond rose by 7.5 basis points to 2.095%, the highest level since February 1999, while the 2-year bond yield increased by 3 basis points to 1.12%, the highest since 1997 [1] - Nomura Securities reports that Prime Minister Fumio Kishida is becoming aware that the continuous depreciation of the yen could impact his political stability, suggesting that Japanese authorities may be close to taking strong action [4] Group 2 - Market participants acknowledge the possibility of further interest rate hikes but do not fully accept a rapid or aggressive rate increase path, indicating a cautious approach to trading the yen [5] - Speculative positions in the dollar-yen pair have been affected by the U.S. government shutdown, with data showing a significant decline in long positions on the yen, approaching neutral levels [5] - Analysts believe that while the Japanese Ministry of Finance can temporarily halt the yen's decline by selling dollars, this strategy may not be sustainable, especially without a shift towards a more hawkish tone from the Bank of Japan [5]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan raised interest rates to 0.75% on December 19, but the lack of a clear hawkish stance from the governor led to unexpected depreciation of the yen, with potential for further decline towards 160 yen per dollar [2][4][6]. Group 1: Interest Rate and Currency Impact - The long-term interest rates in Japan rose to 2% for the first time in 19 years following the interest rate hike, but the yen's exchange rate remained relatively stable around 155.80 yen before the announcement [4]. - After the press conference, the yen quickly depreciated, reaching a low of 157.70 yen per dollar, marking a one-month low due to the unexpected lack of aggressive monetary tightening signals from the Bank of Japan [6][8]. - Market participants expect the yen to depreciate further, with many anticipating a rate of around 160 yen by the end of March 2026 [6][8]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Predictions - Analysts predict that the next interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan may not occur until October 2026, leading to a potential depreciation of the yen to 162 yen in the first quarter of 2024 [8]. - Concerns about currency intervention have arisen, especially as the yen approaches the 160 yen mark, with officials indicating readiness to respond to excessive movements [8]. - Some analysts believe that the yen's depreciation may be limited, with expectations of a potential appreciation back to 155 yen by March 2024, influenced by anticipated actions from the U.S. Federal Reserve [9]. Group 3: Stock Market Implications - The depreciation of the yen is expected to benefit export-oriented companies, potentially driving up stock prices, with forecasts suggesting the Nikkei average could rise to between 50,000 and 55,000 points [10]. - Concerns about fiscal expansion and political developments, such as potential early elections, could pose risks to stock prices, with some analysts suggesting a possible adjustment to around 45,000 points [10].