1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints 2.1沪镍 - Last week, nickel prices fluctuated with an upward bias, mainly influenced by Indonesian policies and some positive news on the cost side. Supply: In March, production scheduling increased, domestic inventories continued to accumulate, and the market supply was sufficient. In the industrial chain, nickel ore prices were firm, the Indonesian RKAB policy continued to ferment, and Indonesia's bargaining power for nickel ore continued to rise. Nickel iron prices were weakly stable, and the cost line was firm. Stainless steel inventories increased slightly, and demand was weak. New energy vehicle production and sales data met expectations, with a large month - on - month decline in the off - season. Overall, it is bearish [3]. - The basis of spot nickel is 1900, which is bullish [3]. - LME nickel inventory is 281574 (-666), and the Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipt is 57069 (-524), which is bearish [3]. - The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward, which is neutral [3]. - The net long position of the main contract increased, which is bullish [3]. - Conclusion: The Shanghai nickel 2605 contract will fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average [3]. 2.2 Stainless Steel - The spot stainless steel price remained flat. In the short term, nickel ore prices were firm, demand in Indonesia was strong, nickel iron prices were weakly stable, and the cost line had strong support. Stainless steel inventories increased slightly, and demand was weak. Overall, it is neutral [5]. - The basis of stainless steel is 672.5, which is bullish [5]. - The futures warehouse receipt is 45676 (unchanged), which is neutral [5]. - The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward, which is bullish [5]. - Conclusion: The stainless steel 2605 contract will have a wide - range fluctuation around the 20 - day moving average [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Nickel, Stainless Steel Price Overview | Type | 3 - 27 | 3 - 26 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai nickel main contract | 137100 | 135860 | +1240 | | LME nickel | 17215 | 17165 | +50 | | Stainless steel main contract | 14390 | 14390 | 0 | | SMM1 electrolytic nickel (spot) | 139000 | 139350 | -350 | | 1 Jinchuan nickel (spot) | 141550 | 142050 | -500 | | 1 imported nickel (spot) | 136450 | 136450 | 0 | | Nickel beans (spot) | 139100 | 139100 | 0 | | Cold - rolled coil 304*2B (Wuxi, spot) | 15100 | 15100 | 0 | | Cold - rolled coil 304*2B (Foshan, spot) | 14900 | 14900 | 0 | | Cold - rolled coil 304*2B (Hangzhou, spot) | 15100 | 15100 | 0 | | Cold - rolled coil 304*2B (Shanghai, spot) | 15150 | 15150 | 0 | [10] 3.2 Nickel Warehouse Receipts and Inventories - As of March 27, the Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory was 64479 tons, of which the futures inventory was 57069 tons, an increase of 818 tons and 379 tons respectively [12]. | Type | 3 - 27 | 3 - 26 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | LME nickel inventory | 281574 | 282240 | -666 | | Nickel warehouse receipts | 57069 | 57593 | -524 | | Total inventory | 338643 | 339833 | -1190 | [13] 3.3 Stainless Steel Warehouse Receipts and Inventories - On March 27, the Wuxi inventory was 601200 tons, the Foshan inventory was 390900 tons, and the national inventory was 1157500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 30100 tons. Among them, the 300 - series inventory was 696700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3000 tons [17]. - The stainless steel futures warehouse receipt on March 27 was 45676 tons, unchanged from the previous day [18]. 3.4 Nickel Ore and Nickel Iron Prices | Nickel Ore | Grade | 3 - 27 | 3 - 26 | Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Laterite nickel ore CIF | Ni1.5% | 79.5 | 79.5 | 0 | USD/wet ton | | Laterite nickel ore CIF | Ni0.9% | 35 | 35 | 0 | USD/wet ton | | Freight from Philippines to Lianyungang | | 14.5 | 14.5 | 0 | USD/ton | | Freight from Philippines to Tianjin Port | | 16 | 16 | 0 | USD/ton | | High - nickel wet ton | 8 - 12 | 1085.73 | 1085.52 | +0.21 | CNY/nickel point | | Low - nickel wet ton | <2 | 3650 | 3650 | 0 | CNY/ton | [22] 3.5 Stainless Steel Production Costs | Traditional Cost | Scrap Steel Production Cost | Low - Nickel + Pure Nickel Cost | | --- | --- | --- | | 14205 | 14085 | 17964 | [24] 3.6 Nickel Import Cost Calculation The converted import price is 134894 CNY/ton [26]

Group 1: Report Information - Report title: Nickel Daily Report [1] - Date: January 20, 2026 [2] - Research team: Nonferrous Metals Research Team [3] - Researchers: Yu Feifei, Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin [3] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 3: Core View - On the 19th, nickel prices fluctuated widely at high levels. After dropping below 140,000 to around 137,000 on the evening of last Friday, prices rebounded during domestic trading hours. The price of ferronickel continued to climb, with the average ex - factory price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron rising by 10 to 1,027.5 yuan per nickel point. The price of battery - grade nickel sulfate remained stable at 33,600 yuan/ton, and the coefficient of intermediate product MHP remained high. Although new projects are put into production in the first quarter, the short - term market circulation is still limited due to a two - month approval process. Benefiting from the news of Indonesia's reduction of RKAB and the macro - environment, nickel prices broke away from the long - term low - level oscillation area, but the oversupply pressure has not been reversed. This week, inventories continued to hit new highs, with the pure nickel inventories in the two markets increasing by nearly 3,000 tons, approaching 350,000 tons. Before the final policy is determined, nickel prices will have greater upside potential [7]. Group 4: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Nickel price movement: On the 19th, nickel prices fluctuated widely at high levels. They dropped below 140,000 to around 137,000 on the evening of last Friday and then rebounded during domestic trading hours [7]. - Price changes of related products: The average ex - factory price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron on the 19th rose by 10 to 1,027.5 yuan per nickel point; the price of battery - grade nickel sulfate remained stable at 33,600 yuan/ton; the MHP coefficient of intermediate products remained high [7]. - Inventory situation: This week, inventories continued to hit new highs, with the pure nickel inventories in the two markets increasing by nearly 3,000 tons, approaching 350,000 tons [7]. - Outlook: Before the final policy from Indonesia is determined, nickel prices will have greater upside potential [7]. Group 5: Industry News - Indonesia's production plan: The Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) will use the 2026 Work Plan and Budget (RKAB) as a strategic tool to align mineral production with domestic industrial demand. The nickel production target is set at about 290 million tons to match smelter capacity. Adjusting production quotas for nickel and coal aims to prevent global oversupply, stabilize falling prices, and protect national resource reserves. Although the Indonesian Nickel Miners Association (APNI) is worried that production may drop to 250 million tons, the government says the specific data is still being integrated [8]. - Suspension of nickel mining by Vale Indonesia: Due to the unapproved 2026 Work Plan (RKAB), PT Vale Indonesia has suspended its nickel mining business. However, management expects the license to be approved soon, and this temporary suspension will not affect the long - term operational sustainability of the joint venture. The delay only temporarily affects the Pomalaa and Bahodopi nickel projects, while the Sorowako mining area and the integrated RKEF project are still operating normally, so the impact on market supply and demand is relatively limited [10]. - Nickel ore demand in Indonesia: The Indonesian Nickel Smelters Association estimates that the domestic nickel smelting industry's demand for nickel ore in 2026 is about 340 - 350 million tons [10].