1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The short - term V2601 is expected to fluctuate weakly, with technical attention on the low - level support around 4665. Last week, the PVC capacity utilization rate increased slightly, while the downstream开工率 decreased. The inventory continued to accumulate and reached a new high. The cost of PVC's calcium carbide method and ethylene method decreased, and the profit was slightly repaired. In the medium - to - long term, the supply pressure of PVC remains high. After the holiday, downstream enterprises resumed production, but demand growth is limited by the weak domestic real - estate market. The export market may remain on the sidelines due to the Indian anti - dumping tax, and inventory is expected to continue to accumulate at a high level. The calcium carbide method process is deeply in loss, and the cost - side support is limited. Market sentiment is weak, and industrial products mainly declined during the day [3][5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of PVC was 4692 yuan/ton, a decrease of 29 yuan; the trading volume was 736,644 lots, an increase of 94,686 lots; the open interest was 1,254,279 lots, an increase of 19,246 lots. The long positions of the top 20 futures holders were 921,931 lots, an increase of 15,375 lots; the short positions were 1,077,284 lots, an increase of 17,675 lots; the net long positions were - 155,353 lots, a decrease of 2,300 lots [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - In the East China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC was 4,890 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC was 4,625 yuan/ton, a decrease of 19.23 yuan. In the South China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC was 4,845 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC was 4,694.38 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan. The CIF price of PVC in China was 700 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CIF price in Southeast Asia was 650 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the FOB price in Northwest Europe was 715 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of PVC was - 112 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1 yuan [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in Central China was 2,800 yuan/ton, unchanged; in North China, it was 2,673.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11.67 yuan; in Northwest China, it was 2,530 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan. The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia was - 150 yuan/ton, unchanged. The CFR mid - price of VCM in the Far East was 524 US dollars/ton, an increase of 11 US dollars; in Southeast Asia, it was 549 US dollars/ton, an increase of 3 US dollars. The CFR mid - price of EDC in the Far East was 189 US dollars/ton, unchanged; in Southeast Asia, it was 201 US dollars/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The weekly operating rate of PVC was 82.63%, an increase of 3.66 percentage points; the operating rate of calcium carbide - based PVC was 82.94%, an increase of 0.81 percentage points; the operating rate of ethylene - based PVC was 81.9%, an increase of 2.15 percentage points. The total social inventory of PVC was 55.7 tons, an increase of 1.93 tons; the total inventory in the East China region was 50.27 tons, an increase of 1.43 tons; the total inventory in the South China region was 5.43 tons, an increase of 0.5 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The national real - estate climate index was 93.05, a decrease of 0.29. The cumulative value of new housing construction area was 39,801.01 million square meters, an increase of 4,595.01 million square meters. The cumulative value of real - estate construction area was 643,108.94 million square meters, an increase of 4,377.94 million square meters. The cumulative value of real - estate development investment was 316.9394 billion yuan, an increase of 35.8801 billion yuan [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC was 11.38%, an increase of 0.06 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 10.04%, a decrease of 0.11 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 14.72%, an increase of 0.31 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 14.73%, an increase of 0.32 percentage points [3]. 3.7 Industry News - From October 4th to 10th, China's PVC capacity utilization rate was 82.63%, a month - on - month increase of 1.21%. The downstream operating rate of PVC decreased by 8.55% to 39.21%, among which the operating rate of pipes decreased by 7.6% to 32.83%, and the operating rate of profiles decreased by 23.04% to 15.87%. As of October 9th, the social inventory of PVC was 103.63 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.58%. From October 4th to 10th, the cost of PVC's calcium carbide method decreased by 168 yuan/ton to 5,126 yuan/ton, and the cost of the ethylene method decreased by 23 yuan/ton to 5,493 yuan/ton; the profit of the calcium carbide method increased by 153 yuan/ton to - 622 yuan/ton, and the profit of the ethylene method increased by 20 yuan/ton to - 538 yuan/ton [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In October 2025, the PVC market continued the pattern of strong supply and weak demand, with prices under downward pressure. The market lacked obvious support due to high - level supply, accumulated inventory, and the uncertainty of Indian anti - dumping policies, resulting in a weak and volatile price trend [2][34]. - In the short term, the PVC supply - demand fundamentals have not improved significantly, and inventory pressure persists. Prices are expected to continue to fluctuate within a range. Although downstream demand has slightly recovered after the holiday, it remains weak overall [2][34]. - In the long - term, attention should be paid to changes in export policies, especially the final implementation time and intensity of India's anti - dumping duties. The actual impact of the six - department building materials industry growth - stabilizing work plan on the PVC industry also needs to be monitored [2][34]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - PVC futures and spot prices oscillated weakly. As of the night session on October 10, the main PVC futures price was 4,723 yuan/ton, fluctuating slightly compared to the end of September. The trading volume remained at a moderate level of 255,000 lots. From October 9 to 10, the open interest of the PVC2601 contract increased significantly, indicating high hedging pressure [4]. - In the spot market, regional price differences remained stable but showed a downward trend. The prices in different regions were in different ranges, and they briefly increased at the beginning of the month due to futures fluctuations and then declined again at the end of the month due to weak demand. The ethylene - based price was relatively stable, but the trading atmosphere was light [5]. 2. Fundamental Analysis Supply Side - Capacity and operation: As of October 10, the overall PVC operating load rate was 76.11%, with the calcium carbide - based operating rate at 78.97% and the ethylene - based operating rate at 77.52%. New production capacity was put into operation in September, and the effective domestic calcium carbide - based PVC production capacity increased to 21.465 million tons. Although there were some maintenance activities, the long - term capacity increase offset the short - term reduction, and the supply pressure continued to expand [14]. - Maintenance: After the holiday, some devices were under maintenance, but the overall maintenance intensity was limited and could not alleviate the supply surplus situation [14]. Inventory - As of October 10, the in - factory PVC inventory was 384,000 tons, and the social inventory was 1.036 million tons, both increasing year - on - year. The social inventory had been accumulating for 13 consecutive weeks since early July, and the high inventory was one of the core factors suppressing the market. The inventory pressure was difficult to relieve in the short term [17]. Demand Side - Domestic demand was weak. The real estate market, the core consumption area of PVC, was still in a slump, with significant year - on - year declines in construction area, new construction area, investment, and completion area from January to August 2025. The downstream enterprise operating rates were at a low level, and the demand support was limited [20]. - Export support weakened. Although the export volume in August increased year - on - year, the expected implementation of India's anti - dumping duties and the anti - dumping investigation on PVC wallpapers in September pressured export orders. The "rush - to - export" behavior in the early stage over - drafted demand, and the export rhythm slowed down significantly in September [21]. Cost and Profit Analysis - Cost: The production cost of PVC mainly consists of calcium carbide - based and ethylene - based processes. The calcium carbide price accounts for over 80% of the calcium carbide - based PVC cost, and coal price fluctuations significantly affect the cost. The overall PVC industry is in a loss state, with a loss of about 750 yuan/ton for calcium carbide - based PVC and about 650 yuan/ton for ethylene - based PVC [26]. - Cost trend: In September, the average calcium carbide market price rose sharply, driving up the calcium carbide - based PVC production cost by 2.41% to 5,132 yuan/ton. The ethylene - based cost slightly increased to 5,617 yuan/ton. However, it is expected that the cost support will gradually weaken [27]. - Profit: As of the end of September, the calcium carbide - based PVC gross profit was about - 444 yuan/ton, and the ethylene - based gross profit was - 467 yuan/ton. The cost increase and product price decline formed a "scissors gap", suppressing enterprises' production enthusiasm [28][29]. 3. Summary and Outlook - In the short term, the PVC supply - demand fundamentals remain unchanged, and inventory pressure persists. Prices will continue to fluctuate within a range. Although downstream demand has slightly recovered, it is still weak. The implementation of maintenance plans in October is expected to reduce the operating rate, but the supply surplus pattern is difficult to reverse [34]. - In the long - term, pay attention to changes in export policies and the actual impact of the building materials industry growth - stabilizing work plan. - Futures strategy: Given the weak supply - demand pattern of PVC, it is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities, especially when inventory pressure appears and export expectations weaken. - Spot market: The trading volume remains low, and prices lack obvious support. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to supply - side changes and inventory adjustment signals [34].