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海外装置竞争力下降,中国产能迎发展机遇 | 投研报告
Group 1 - Ethylene is a cornerstone of the petrochemical industry, with a wide range of derivatives used in packaging, agriculture, construction, textiles, electronics, and automotive sectors [2] - The upstream raw materials for the ethylene industry chain include naphtha, ethane, and coal, while polyethylene accounts for the largest share of downstream derivatives [2][3] - In 2022, China surpassed the United States to become the world's largest producer and consumer of ethylene [2] Group 2 - The global ethylene market size is projected to reach $146.22 billion in 2024, with a CAGR of approximately 5.68% from 2025 to 2034 [2] - The average operating rate for global ethylene production has been around 80% over the past two years, with negative average investment returns and international ethylene prices at relatively low levels [2] - Europe and South Korea are experiencing a wave of facility exits, with Europe expected to permanently lose 4.6 million tons of ethylene capacity by the end of 2027 [2] Group 3 - The trend in global ethylene raw materials is shifting towards light and diversified sources, with ethane and other light hydrocarbons increasing in proportion [3] - Middle Eastern and North American regions have a competitive edge in ethylene cash production costs due to raw material advantages, while Europe and China rely more on naphtha, resulting in higher production costs [3] - Northeast Asia remains dependent on imports for ethylene and its derivatives, with North America and the Middle East leading in net export volumes [3] Group 4 - From 2022 to 2030, Asia is expected to contribute over 60% of the global new ethylene capacity, with China and India being the main drivers of capacity expansion [4] - China's ethylene production primarily relies on naphtha, with coal/methanol-to-olefins and light hydrocarbon cracking processes complementing each other, creating a unique competitive advantage [4]