2025 年 12 月 18 日 产业重组与升级 石脑油供需拐点临近 ---2026 年石脑油行情展望 陈鑫超 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020238 chenxinchao@gtht.com 报告导读： 展望 2026 年，在供应端不确定性增强以及需求端负反馈冲击背景下，亚洲石脑油从大幅短缺逐步转向紧平衡 格局，结构性矛盾将演变成存量博弈，下半年伴随亚洲乙烯裂解轻质化进程加快以及韩国石化行业重组冲击， 亚洲石脑油有望转向结构性过剩。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 二 〇 二 三 年 度 | 1. 2025 年全年石脑油-乙烯走势回顾 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 1.1 2025 年全年石脑油行情回顾 3 | | | 1.2 2025 年全年乙烯行情回顾 4 | | | 2. 2026 年石脑油乙烯供需展望 | 5 | | 2.1 全球石脑油供应变化 5 | | | 2.1.1 全球炼能变化 5 | | | 2.1.2 国内石脑油出率推算 6 | | | 2.1.3 全球出口供应国出口 ...

Group 1 - Ethylene is a cornerstone of the petrochemical industry, with a wide range of derivatives used in packaging, agriculture, construction, textiles, electronics, and automotive sectors [2] - The upstream raw materials for the ethylene industry chain include naphtha, ethane, and coal, while polyethylene accounts for the largest share of downstream derivatives [2][3] - In 2022, China surpassed the United States to become the world's largest producer and consumer of ethylene [2] Group 2 - The global ethylene market size is projected to reach $146.22 billion in 2024, with a CAGR of approximately 5.68% from 2025 to 2034 [2] - The average operating rate for global ethylene production has been around 80% over the past two years, with negative average investment returns and international ethylene prices at relatively low levels [2] - Europe and South Korea are experiencing a wave of facility exits, with Europe expected to permanently lose 4.6 million tons of ethylene capacity by the end of 2027 [2] Group 3 - The trend in global ethylene raw materials is shifting towards light and diversified sources, with ethane and other light hydrocarbons increasing in proportion [3] - Middle Eastern and North American regions have a competitive edge in ethylene cash production costs due to raw material advantages, while Europe and China rely more on naphtha, resulting in higher production costs [3] - Northeast Asia remains dependent on imports for ethylene and its derivatives, with North America and the Middle East leading in net export volumes [3] Group 4 - From 2022 to 2030, Asia is expected to contribute over 60% of the global new ethylene capacity, with China and India being the main drivers of capacity expansion [4] - China's ethylene production primarily relies on naphtha, with coal/methanol-to-olefins and light hydrocarbon cracking processes complementing each other, creating a unique competitive advantage [4]