1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - After the holiday, A-shares are likely to have a restorative rebound. Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has indicated interest rate risks in the short term. The macro situation during the holiday is favorable for the market, and the prices of various commodities have different trends [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - **Stock Index**: Before the holiday, the A-share market adjusted significantly due to the rise of risk aversion. During the holiday, the Hong Kong stock market rebounded, and technology sectors such as AI and robotics attracted wide attention. It is expected that A-shares will have a restorative rebound after the holiday [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has indicated interest rate risks in the short term. Attention should be paid to the interest rate decision of the Bank of Japan [1]. Non-ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The macro situation during the holiday is favorable for the market, and the copper price may fluctuate strongly in the short term [1]. - **Aluminum**: The macro situation is mixed, and the aluminum price will fluctuate in the short term. The operating capacity of domestic alumina has decreased, and there are disturbances in the supply of a large alumina enterprise in North China. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of going long at a low price [1]. - **Zinc**: The negotiation between the United States and Iran has reached a deadlock, which has led to concerns about the supply of Iranian zinc mines and supported the zinc price in the short term. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production of downstream enterprises after the holiday [1]. - **Nickel**: The LME nickel price rose slightly during the holiday. Although the tailings landslide in the Indonesian QMB project has limited actual impact, there are still concerns about nickel ore supply. The nickel price will fluctuate strongly in the short term and is still affected by the resonance of the non-ferrous metal sector. Attention should be paid to changes in Indonesian policies and macro sentiment. In the long term, the high global nickel inventory may still have a suppressing effect. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long at a low price and control risks [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: The raw material nickel-iron price remains firm, the spot transaction of stainless steel is weak, the social inventory has increased slightly, and the steel mills' maintenance and production reduction have increased in February. The stainless steel futures will fluctuate strongly. Attention should be paid to the demand recovery after the holiday. It is recommended to go long at a low price in the short term and control risks [1]. - **Tin**: The uncertainty of recent macro events is relatively large. Under the influence of US tariffs and geopolitics, the short-term volatility of the tin price may increase. Although the long-term trend of the tin price remains unchanged, investors are advised to pay attention to risk management and profit protection in the short term [1]. - **Precious Metals**: The judgment of the Supreme Court that the "IEEPA tariff" is illegal and Trump's new tariff policy have intensified market concerns about uncertainty. Coupled with the escalation of the geopolitical tension between the United States and Iran, the demand for hedging has supported the price of precious metals. The macro situation is favorable for platinum, and the balance expectation of palladium may improve, which may further support the palladium price in the short term [1]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: The data of Malaysian palm oil from February 1 to 20 showed a double decline in production and exports. The Malaysian palm oil market rebounded and then faced pressure during the holiday and is expected to fluctuate [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: The US soybean oil has risen under the influence of biodiesel and crude oil prices. The domestic soybean oil may open higher but lacks new driving forces for the time being. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - **Rapeseed**: The ICE rapeseed rose slightly during the holiday and may be affected by US biodiesel and potential domestic import demand. Attention should be paid to the release of the EPA biodiesel policy and the anti-dumping arbitration announcement of Canadian rapeseed in China [1]. - **Cotton**: The domestic new cotton crop has a strong expectation of a bumper harvest, and the purchase price of seed cotton supports the cost of lint cotton. The downstream startup rate remains low, but the inventory of spinning mills is not high, and there is a rigid demand for replenishment. The cotton market is currently in a situation of "having support but no driving force." Future attention should be paid to the tone of the No. 1 Central Document in the first quarter of next year regarding direct subsidy prices and cotton planting areas, the intention of cotton planting areas next year, weather during the planting period, and the peak demand season from March to April [1]. - **Sugar**: The global sugar market is in surplus, and the domestic new sugar supply is increasing. The short-selling consensus is relatively consistent. If the price continues to fall, there will be strong cost support below, but the short-term fundamentals lack continuous driving forces. Attention should be paid to changes in the capital market [1]. - **Corn**: After the holiday, attention should be paid to the selling pressure of on-the-ground grain in the production areas. However, the quality of Northeast grain is relatively dry this year, and the selling pressure is expected to be limited under the support of the rigid replenishment demand of the middle and lower reaches. In addition, attention should be paid to the release of policy grain and the implementation of import restrictions after the holiday. The overall expectation is to maintain range fluctuations [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: The US tariff policy has changed during the holiday, but the external market fluctuated little, which has limited guidance for the domestic soybean meal market. The Brazilian soybean premium has declined, and the soybean meal market is expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to Sino-US trade dynamics and Brazilian selling pressure in the near future [1]. - **Coniferous Pulp**: There is no obvious positive news for coniferous pulp during the Spring Festival. The previous positive factors on the supply side have basically faded. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 5200 - 5400 in the short term. Attention should be paid to the port inventory after the holiday [1]. - **Log**: The spot price of logs has risen, the log arrivals in February have decreased, and the external quotation is expected to rise. The futures market has an upward driving force [1]. Energy and Chemicals - **Fuel Oil**: OPEC+ has suspended production increases until the end of 2026, the Middle East geopolitical situation is still uncertain, and the sentiment in the commodity market has cooled down. The short-term supply-demand contradiction is not prominent, and it follows the trend of crude oil [1]. - **Asphalt**: The raw material cost has strong support, the sentiment in the commodity market is changeable, the risk appetite of funds has decreased, the downstream demand has weakened before the holiday, and the basis difference has expanded to the high level of the same period [1]. - **Butadiene**: The cost end of butadiene has strong support, the overseas cracking device capacity has been cleared, which is beneficial to the long-term domestic butadiene export expectation. The profit of private cis-butadiene plants has remained in a loss state recently, and the expectation of maintenance and load reduction has increased. The downstream negative feedback has been gradually realized. The butadiene market is in a state of destocking, and the high inventory of cis-butadiene is still a potential negative factor. Attention should be paid to the inventory reduction of cis-butadiene before the Spring Festival and the trading performance of the butadiene market. The short-term market is expected to fluctuate widely, and the BR still has an upward expectation in the long term [1]. - **PX**: The PX-mixed xylene price difference has narrowed to $150, which is still enough to support PX manufacturers to purchase mixed xylene as raw materials. PX maintains fundamental resilience during the high-level correction, and there are still risks of crude oil prices due to the Iranian geopolitical risk. The downstream PTA industry continues to be strong, and the domestic PTA output in January is expected to reach a new high, and there is no plan to reduce production during the Spring Festival, and there is no new PTA production capacity throughout the year [1]. - **Ethylene**: The production profit rate of naphtha cracking has declined due to the rise in raw material prices. The price difference between ethylene and naphtha has reached $83. Several Korean ethylene producers plan to maintain the operating rate of their cracking devices in February. The ethylene glycol price is waiting at a low level [1]. - **Styrene**: The high inventory of pure benzene has weak import demand, and the price difference between the United States and Asia is $88, which is not enough to open the arbitrage window. The Asian styrene price and economic situation have recovered, mainly driven by supply tightening, unexpected shutdowns in the Middle East, surging export demand, and rising cost ends. The continuous strong export, short-term supply gap caused by domestic maintenance, and speculative buying driven by chemical futures support the firmness of the spot price [1]. - **Methanol**: Methanol is generally affected by the Iranian situation, and the future import is expected to decrease, but the downstream negative feedback is obvious. The leading MTO device has stopped, and some enterprises have reduced production, but the Fude plant restarted on January 25. The Iranian situation has eased, but the risk cannot be completely ruled out. The freight has risen due to the cold air in the inland area, and the inventory pressure of enterprises in the northwest has increased, and they have reduced prices to sell goods [1]. - **PVC**: In 2026, there will be less global production, and the differential electricity price in the northwest region is expected to be implemented, which will force the clearance of PVC production capacity. The future expectation is relatively optimistic, but the current fundamentals are poor, and the export rush has slowed down stage by stage [1]. - **LPG**: The CP price in February has risen, and the purchase in March is still relatively tight. The Middle East geopolitical conflict has cooled down, and the short-term risk premium has declined. The driving logic of the overseas cold wave has gradually slowed down, and the market expectation is weakening. It is expected that the basis will gradually expand. The domestic PDH operating rate has declined, and the profit is expected to recover seasonally. The short-term demand side of LPG is bearish, which suppresses the upward movement of the market. The port inventory has been continuously decreasing, but the domestic civil gas is relatively sufficient, showing a divergence between propane and PG [1]. Shipping - **Container Shipping**: The freight rate peaked and fell before the holiday. Airlines are still cautious about tentative resume flights. Airlines are expected to have a strong willingness to stop the decline and raise prices after the off-season in March [1].

Group 1 - The State Council has emphasized the importance of energy conservation and carbon reduction, aiming for higher quality and level in these efforts, while promoting green transformation in economic development [1] - Energy conservation and carbon reduction are key to achieving carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals, with significant progress made since the 14th Five-Year Plan, including an average energy consumption growth rate of 3.3% supporting a 6.1% economic growth [1] - China has established the world's largest and most complete new energy industry chain, providing 80% of global photovoltaic components and 70% of wind power equipment, contributing significantly to global energy transition [1] Group 2 - The strategy focuses on both increasing new green low-carbon industries and phasing out inefficient capacities, particularly in high carbon emission sectors like steel, cement, and refining, with energy efficiency benchmarks improving by an average of 6 percentage points since the 14th Five-Year Plan [2] - Specific measures include enhancing energy conservation reviews for new projects, optimizing existing facilities, and improving the recovery and utilization of waste heat in rapidly growing energy-consuming sectors like computing facilities [2] Group 3 - The transition to energy conservation and carbon reduction requires participation from all sectors of society, with a need to strengthen the internal motivation for green low-carbon development and optimize the market mechanisms for carbon emissions and resource rights [3] - The approach to energy conservation and carbon reduction must be tailored to local conditions, ensuring a coordinated national strategy while allowing for local initiatives to drive progress [3]

上市企业：中国石油（601857）,中国石化（600028）,万华化学（600309）,荣盛石化（002493）,盐湖股 份（000792）,宝丰能源（600989）,东方盛虹（000301）,巨化股份（600160）,君正集团（601216）,上 海石化（600688） 相关报告：智研咨询发布的《2026-2032年中国乙烯行业市场全景调研及未来趋势研判报告》 根据国家统计局数据显示：2025年11月中国乙烯产量为309万吨，同比增长7.3%；2025年1-11月中国乙 烯累计产量为3366.5万吨，累计增长7.1%。 2020-2025年1-11月中国乙烯产量统计图 数据来源：国家统计局，智研咨询整理 知前沿，问智研。智研咨询是中国一流产业咨询机构，十数年持续深耕产业研究领域，提供深度产业研 究报告、商业计划书、可行性研究报告及定制服务等一站式产业咨询服务。专业的角度、品质化的服 务、敏锐的市场洞察力，专注于提供完善的产业解决方案，为您的投资决策赋能。 ...

新华社北京12月26日电 题：强化节约优先战略 持续提升能源利用效率——来自全国人大常委会专题询 问现场的声音 据郑栅洁介绍，当前，"绿水青山就是金山银山"的理念已经深入人心，节能从意识到行动形成良好生 态。 聚焦重点领域精准施策 "十四五"时期，算力设施用电量增长每年近20%，年用电量超过2500亿千瓦时，成为快速增长的重点用 能领域。孙泽洲委员询问，如何推进算力设施节能降碳？ 郑栅洁表示，加强新建项目源头把关，强化新上项目节能降碳审查评价，从源头提升算力设施绿色低碳 水平；加大存量设施改造力度，优化算力设施结构；强化余热资源回收利用，推动"应收尽收、能用尽 用"。 新华社记者王悦阳 十四届全国人大常委会第十九次会议24日举行联组会议，就节约能源法执法检查报告进行专题询问。 我国节能工作取得哪些成效？如何推进重点领域节能？怎样增强居民节能意识？……全国人大常委会委 员、专门委员会委员和全国人大代表等与会人员现场提出询问，国务院相关部门负责人予以坦诚回应。 节能降碳成效显著 我国是能源使用大国，节能非常重要。赵海英委员询问，我国在节能方面主要开展了哪些工作？ 国家发展改革委主任郑栅洁说，我国节能工作成效显著， ...

Core Viewpoint - The National People's Congress (NPC) emphasizes the importance of energy conservation and efficiency improvement in China, highlighting significant achievements and future strategies in energy saving and carbon reduction efforts [1][2]. Group 1: Achievements in Energy Conservation - China's energy conservation efforts have been significant, with an average energy consumption growth rate of 3.3% supporting an average economic growth rate of 6.1% [2]. - The country has improved the benchmark capacity for energy efficiency in key industries such as steel, cement, refining, and ethylene by an average of 6 percentage points since the start of the 14th Five-Year Plan [2]. - A total of 317 national energy-saving standards have been issued, and various policies have been implemented to enhance the energy-saving system [2]. Group 2: Focus on Key Areas - The electricity consumption of computing facilities has been growing nearly 20% annually, exceeding 2,500 billion kilowatt-hours, necessitating targeted energy-saving measures [3]. - The government plans to strengthen energy-saving evaluations for new projects and enhance the renovation of existing computing facilities to optimize their structure and improve energy efficiency [3]. - In the transportation sector, the government aims to promote the large-scale development of new energy heavy trucks and improve the charging infrastructure for electric vehicles [3]. Group 3: Enhancing Public Awareness - There is a growing need to enhance residents' participation in energy conservation, especially in urban construction, where energy-saving measures can be implemented in both household appliances and building insulation [5]. - The implementation of a tiered electricity pricing system has been effective in balancing basic electricity needs while promoting energy savings and reducing waste [6]. - The government plans to optimize the tiered pricing system further to encourage reasonable electricity use among residents [6].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the European ethylene industry is unlikely to see significant structural improvement in its fundamentals by 2026, with a persistent low demand scenario expected to continue [1] - Market participants anticipate a notable decline in ethylene demand in 2025 compared to 2024, with further weakness expected in 2026 [1] - Ethylene producers in Europe expect limited or zero growth in production for the coming year, while downstream buyers indicate no substantial changes in demand for ethylene derivatives [1] Group 2 - The supply side remains loose, exacerbating market pressures, with five cracking units already shut down and two idled in 2025, alongside ongoing industry consolidation [1] - Despite the consolidation efforts, the supply of ethylene in Europe remains stable, with no shortages observed, indicating that the fundamental supply conditions have not changed [1] - The spot price of ethylene in Northwest Europe has been on a downward trend, dropping from €795.50 per ton at the beginning of 2025 to €507.50 per ton by December 10, 2025, reflecting the dual weakness in supply and demand [2] - Producers and downstream users are anticipating a larger-scale capacity exit from the industry, with expectations that maintenance in the first half of 2026 may provide short-term relief but structural improvements will require further capacity closures, particularly in low-efficiency ethylene derivative segments [2]

2020-2025年1-10月中国乙烯产量统计图 数据来源：国家统计局，智研咨询整理 上市企业：中国石油（601857）,中国石化（600028）,万华化学（600309）,荣盛石化（002493）,盐湖股 份（000792）,宝丰能源（600989）,东方盛虹（000301）,巨化股份（600160）,君正集团（601216）,上 海石化（600688） 相关报告：智研咨询发布的《2025-2031年中国乙烯行业市场全景调研及未来趋势研判报告》 根据国家统计局数据显示：2025年10月中国乙烯产量为314万吨，同比增长11.7%；2025年1-10月中国乙 烯累计产量为3057.9万吨，累计增长10.7%。 知前沿，问智研。智研咨询是中国一流产业咨询机构，十数年持续深耕产业研究领域，提供深度产业研 究报告、商业计划书、可行性研究报告及定制服务等一站式产业咨询服务。专业的角度、品质化的服 务、敏锐的市场洞察力，专注于提供完善的产业解决方案，为您的投资决策赋能。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the growth of China's ethylene production, indicating a positive trend in the industry with a projected increase in output and significant year-on-year growth rates [1]. Industry Summary - As of September 2025, China's ethylene production reached 2.99 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.3% [1]. - Cumulatively, from January to September 2025, the total ethylene production in China was 27.399 million tons, marking a cumulative growth of 7% [1]. - The report is based on data from the National Bureau of Statistics and is part of a comprehensive market research study by Zhiyan Consulting, which focuses on the ethylene industry from 2025 to 2031 [1]. Company Summary - Listed companies in the ethylene sector include China Petroleum (601857), China Petrochemical (600028), Wanhua Chemical (600309), and others, indicating a diverse range of players in the market [1]. - Zhiyan Consulting is recognized as a leading industry consulting firm in China, providing in-depth research reports and tailored services to support investment decisions in the ethylene sector [1].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the significant growth and transformation of China's chemical industry during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, highlighting the need for high-quality development and innovation in the upcoming "15th Five-Year Plan" to strengthen its global competitiveness and influence [2][9]. Group 1: Overview of the Chemical Industry Development - The chemical industry is a crucial pillar of the national economy, with a steady growth in total output during the "14th Five-Year Plan," achieving a revenue of 14.5 trillion yuan in 2024, a 45% increase from 2020 [2]. - Major chemical products in China, such as ethylene, methanol, and fertilizers, maintain an annual growth rate of approximately 4.6%, with China producing about 42% of the world's major chemical products [3]. - In the 2024 global top 50 chemical companies, 11 Chinese companies are included, generating 2.1 trillion yuan in revenue, which is 1.35 times that of U.S. companies and exceeds the combined revenue of German and Japanese companies [5]. Group 2: Key Strategies for the "15th Five-Year Plan" - The "15th Five-Year Plan" aims to transition from quantity to quality, focusing on six enhancements: upgrading industrial structure, improving innovation capabilities, advancing green and low-carbon development, enhancing smart manufacturing, boosting international cooperation, and promoting high-quality development of chemical parks [9][10]. - The plan emphasizes the need to shift from fuel-driven to material-driven production, optimizing traditional industries and expanding high-end industries [10]. Group 3: Specific Industry Focus Areas - The refining industry is expected to transition from fuel-oriented to raw material-oriented, with a projected revenue of approximately 4.8 trillion yuan in 2024, accounting for 33.1% of the chemical industry [11]. - The ethylene industry will see a capacity of 53.8 million tons per year by 2024, maintaining its global leadership, but the supply growth rate will exceed demand growth [15]. - The aromatics industry, particularly paraxylene (PX), is projected to have a capacity of 43.37 million tons per year in 2024, solidifying China's position as the largest producer and consumer globally [19]. Group 4: Innovation and Technology Development - The chemical industry has made significant technological advancements, with a focus on original and disruptive innovations during the "15th Five-Year Plan," aiming to enhance R&D investment and reduce reliance on foreign technologies [29][30]. - The industry will prioritize breakthroughs in key technologies such as fine and specialty chemicals, biomanufacturing, and new catalytic technologies [30]. Group 5: Environmental and Sustainable Development - The chemical industry has achieved notable progress in pollution reduction and resource recycling, with a water reuse rate of 93% and a significant reduction in energy consumption across various products [32]. - The "15th Five-Year Plan" will focus on systematic carbon reduction strategies, addressing the challenges of high carbon emissions and the need for a comprehensive carbon management system [33]. Group 6: Smart Manufacturing and Digital Transformation - The industry has seen improvements in smart manufacturing, with numerous companies adopting AI and digital technologies to enhance operational efficiency [34]. - The "15th Five-Year Plan" will accelerate the integration of AI in chemical processes and promote the establishment of smart chemical parks [34]. Group 7: International Cooperation and Market Expansion - The chemical industry has strengthened its international cooperation, with foreign investments in China increasing and Chinese companies expanding their global presence [37][38]. - The focus will shift from mere participation in global markets to leading roles in technology sharing and value creation, enhancing China's influence in the global chemical industry [38]. Group 8: High-Quality Development of Chemical Parks - Significant progress has been made in the construction of chemical parks, with a focus on high-quality development and the establishment of world-class industrial clusters [39][40]. - The "15th Five-Year Plan" aims to optimize the spatial layout of the chemical industry, fostering advanced manufacturing clusters and enhancing the overall support role of chemical parks [40].

Group 1 - The 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session emphasizes the importance of effective investment and breaking down barriers to the construction of a unified national market, which may benefit leading companies in the chemical industry [1] - The report highlights that the domestic production rate of electronic chemicals and high-end polyolefins is low, indicating potential growth areas for future development [2] - The petrochemical industry faces challenges due to homogeneous production capacity, necessitating stricter management of new refining and key petrochemical projects to avoid disorderly expansion and duplication [3] Group 2 - The refining industry is identified as a key area for governance, with a significant portion of refining capacity in Shandong province, suggesting potential for capacity reduction and benefits for private refining enterprises [4] - The polyester filament industry is proactively implementing production cuts to balance market supply and demand, which may favor leading companies in the sector [4]