全球炼化及烯烃行业格局展望 20250825 摘要 全球炼油毛利率预计在 2030 年左右达峰值后下滑，受地缘政治、碳关 税和新能源转型等因素影响，不经济炼厂或将关闭或转型为生物燃料生 产设施。已有约 150 万吨/天的炼厂宣布关停或转型，中国占 50%。 预测到 2035 年，全球约 22%的炼油产能（1,840 万桶/天）面临关停 风险，主要集中在欧洲和中东地区。国家石油公司（NOC）因政府支持， 关停意愿较低，而国际石油公司（IOC）更倾向于关闭或出售盈利微薄 的炼油厂。 2020 年后，全球乙烯投资主要由中国主导，民营企业如龙盛和恒力大 量进入该领域。2025-2028 年，中石油、中石化等大型炼油公司将主 导投资，转向增产石化产品，通过加氢处理重油以生产更多石脑油。 全球约 40%-50%的乙烯资产处于负利润或盈亏平衡状态，行业处于周 期底部。中国自 2017 年以来大量新建炼化项目，导致全球供应过剩。 欧洲因能源价格高企及碳税问题，面临较大压力。 全球约有 6,300 万吨乙烯产能面临关闭风险，占 2025 年全球总产能的 27%，高中风险产能约占 55%，主要集中在亚洲和欧洲。中国约有 1,10 ...

摘要 石化化工行业面临新一轮政策调控，200 万吨以下炼厂产能或被淘汰， 乙烯等项目受限，20 年以上老旧装置面临调整，约束国内产能利用。 石化化工行业自 2022 年下半年进入下行周期，企业安全投入和资本支 出大幅下降，欧洲和韩国亦有关停产能，行业面临深度调整。 中证细分化工龙头指数 PB 分位数处于历史低位，叠加政策利好预期， 龙头企业如万华、华鲁、扬农等未来一年半内或有明显收益。 能源局限制煤矿超产政策趋严，煤价走势取决于政策执行力度，合理煤 价区间预计在 650-750 元之间，影响煤炭企业盈利。 铝铜材出口退税取消加速产业升级，叠加 AI 需求拉动，易拉罐料、印刷 板机及 AI 驱动液冷相关铜加工品种加工费或回升，利好龙头企业。 快递行业反内卷提价显著，广东地区平均提价约 5 毛钱，预计长期维持， 将显著提高通达系快递公司的盈利能力。 美联储鸽派表态提升降息预期，上游供需偏紧的铜、铝、黄金等资源品 价格预计上涨，企业结汇需求增加，市场流动性总体利好各类资产。 股市热度下反内卷板块的机会展望 20250824 Q&A 请介绍一下近期石化化工行业反内卷的政策背景和预期。 石化化工行业的反内卷政策在今年 ...

Summary of Petrochemical Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the **petrochemical industry** in China, discussing the impact of domestic "anti-involution" policies and overseas capacity reductions [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments - **Policy Impact**: The anti-involution policy is expected to last for 3-4 years, accelerating the elimination of outdated capacities, particularly small and old private refining units, such as those with capacities below 2 million tons and over 20 years old [1][2][9]. - **Capacity Management**: China's refining capacity is nearing the 1.1 billion tons threshold, with future measures focusing on capacity reduction rather than maintaining total levels. Ethylene capacity has increased significantly, but coal-based ethylene glycol projects face economic and energy consumption challenges [1][6]. - **Market Dynamics**: The concentration of propane dehydrogenation units has led to an oversupply of propylene, primarily due to decisions made during the dual control period in 2022 [7]. - **Development Trends**: The industry is shifting towards fine chemicals and high-end materials, as merely producing ethylene is no longer sufficient to meet market demands. Outdated units, typically with a lifecycle of 20 years, are prioritized for elimination [1][11]. - **Overseas Capacity Reductions**: Frequent capacity reductions in overseas ethylene production are attributed to economic inefficiencies and aging facilities, particularly in Europe, Japan, South Korea, and Southeast Asia [1][29]. Additional Important Insights - **Government Initiatives**: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) is expected to release a detailed list of policies for the petrochemical and chemical industries by September 2025, including specific requirements for capacity elimination and transformation [2]. - **Supply Chain Challenges**: European ethylene production faces upstream raw material supply shortages, leading to reliance on imports, which increases transportation costs and disrupts supply-demand balance [4][22]. - **Investment Needs**: Significant investments are required for energy-saving and carbon reduction initiatives, with costs for upgrading old facilities potentially reaching billions of RMB [18][28]. - **Regional Variations**: Different responses to environmental pressures are observed between state-owned enterprises and private firms, with state-owned enterprises more proactive in adopting technological upgrades [9][14]. - **Future Outlook**: The petrochemical industry is expected to undergo a rebalancing, with small outdated units being phased out and larger units requiring upgrades. This transition will benefit companies with lower costs and diverse product offerings [26][27]. Conclusion The conference highlighted the ongoing transformation within the petrochemical industry, driven by stringent government policies aimed at reducing outdated capacities and promoting high-quality development. The focus on fine chemicals and high-end materials indicates a significant shift in production strategies, while overseas market dynamics continue to influence domestic supply and demand.

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the growth forecast for China's ethylene industry, with a projected production of 2.85 million tons by June 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 5.8% [1] - In the first half of 2025, China's cumulative ethylene production is expected to reach 18.144 million tons, reflecting a cumulative growth of 10.9% [1] - The report is based on data from the National Bureau of Statistics and is compiled by Zhiyan Consulting, a leading industry research institution in China [3]

Group 1: Investment and Expansion - Henkel's President for Greater China emphasized the company's commitment to increasing investment in China, leveraging the China International Import Expo to connect resources along the supply chain and accelerate local innovation [1] - The acquisition of Suzhou Bock factory and the initiation of the Henkel Kunpeng factory in Yantai, with a total investment of approximately 900 million RMB, highlight Henkel's strategic expansion in the industrial sector [1] - The German company Voith announced an additional investment of 500 million RMB to expand its production base for chassis suspension components in Suzhou, marking its fourth investment in China [1] Group 2: Green Economy and Sustainability - Schneider Electric's executive highlighted the global trend towards digitalization and green low-carbon initiatives, with the company operating 21 "zero-carbon factories" out of 30 in China, showcasing its commitment to sustainability [2] - The Wuxi factory of Schneider Electric has achieved a 90% reduction in Scope 1 and 2 carbon emissions and a 65% reduction in Scope 3 emissions, earning the title of "Sustainable Lighthouse Factory" from the World Economic Forum [2] - ExxonMobil's Huizhou ethylene project, with a total investment of 10 billion USD, officially commenced production, utilizing green technology to reduce nitrogen oxide emissions by 50% and greenhouse gas emissions by 35% [2] Group 3: Industry Innovation and Standards - Lubrizol's Asia Pacific Vice President noted that China is not only a source of technological innovation but also a key player in global standard-setting, particularly with the advancement of the "National 7" emission standards [3] - Danfoss's China President stated that the ongoing industrial transformation in China is creating new development opportunities for various industries focused on green solutions, with strong growth expected in data centers, semiconductors, shipping, and energy storage in 2024 [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the reports indicates that the recent "anti-involution" policies are beneficial in curbing low-level repetitive construction in the chemical industry and are actively promoting a shift from homogeneous price wars to high-quality development [1][3] - The chemical industry is expected to see a recovery in its prosperity, with a focus on the revival of terminal product demand, increasing industry concentration, and investment opportunities in segments with industrial moats and potential cyclical rebounds, such as refining, ethylene, polyester filament, PVC, organic silicon, battery materials, glyphosate, and soda ash [1][2] Group 2 - The chemical industry has faced significant pressure since 2022 due to demand contraction and supply shocks, with the CCPI continuing to decline by 5.57% from early 2025 to July 24, 2025 [2] - From January to May 2025, the revenue of the chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing industry grew by 2.10% year-on-year, while total profits decreased by 4.70% [2] - The industry's capacity utilization rate was 71.90% in the second quarter of 2025, down by 1.60 percentage points from the first quarter [2] - The capital expenditure in the large chemical sector has significantly declined, with the capital expenditure growth rate for the oil and petrochemical/basic chemical sectors turning negative at -6.6% and -15.0%, respectively [2] Group 3 - The "anti-involution" policies are expected to reshape the petrochemical industry landscape, addressing the pressures of overcapacity and homogeneous competition [3] - Refining is experiencing a decline in operating rates due to demand downturn and electrification, with potential policy measures to reduce inefficient capacity and encourage integrated development [3] - The ethylene sector faces oversupply and competition, but controlling production and improving quality could alleviate supply-demand imbalances [3] Group 4 - In the battery materials sector, rapid capacity expansion amid growing demand has led to significant supply pressure, but "anti-involution" policies may guide healthier industry development [4] - The organic silicon industry is nearing the end of its capacity expansion phase, with recent supply disruptions and sustained demand growth expected to ease short-term supply pressures [4] - The "anti-involution" policies are anticipated to improve the supply landscape in the soda ash sector by accelerating the exit of outdated processes and capacities [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the petrochemical industry [13]. Core Insights - The petrochemical industry is experiencing a historical trend of "anti-involution," which is expected to accelerate under current industry conditions. The focus is on high concentration in midstream sectors like refining and ethylene, with attention on policy developments and execution progress. Downstream chemical products are facing profitability pressures, but certain sub-industries with high concentration may benefit from anti-involution policies [4][10]. Summary by Sections Current Focus on "Anti-Involution" in the Petrochemical Industry - The period from October 2022 to June 2025 has seen China's PPI in negative territory for 33 consecutive months, marking a significant historical record. This indicates the formation of "involution negative feedback." Industrial capacity utilization has declined from 78.4% in Q2 2021 to 74% in Q2 2025, approaching the 2016 low of 73.8%. The profitability of industrial enterprises is also declining, with profit margins dropping to 5.39% in 2024, the lowest since 2003. Administrative intervention is needed to promote rebalancing [7][22][20]. Opportunities and Challenges in the Petrochemical Industry - The concept of "anti-involution" has been present in the petrochemical industry for some time. Initial policies aimed at promoting energy conservation and carbon reduction also contain elements of anti-involution. Policies set a production capacity cap of 1 billion tons for the refining industry and implement capacity reduction and replacement policies. The focus is on optimizing the industry structure and layout through control of total capacity, scale, and efficiency indicators [8][32]. Logic of "Anti-Involution" in the Petrochemical Industry - The midstream sector of the petrochemical industry is highly concentrated, primarily among state-owned and private refining enterprises. The report emphasizes the need to monitor the progress of policy-driven capacity clearance for smaller refineries, which may benefit the main refining enterprises. The overall profitability of downstream chemical products is under pressure, but high-concentration companies have a stronger willingness and ability to reduce production [9][42]. Future Policy Tracking and Potential Benefits for the Refining Industry - If the anti-involution policies can effectively eliminate outdated capacity, the industry may gradually optimize supply-side dynamics. This, combined with a slowdown in overseas petrochemical growth, could lead to a new upward cycle for the industry. Key areas of focus include the elimination of outdated refining and chemical capacities, which may benefit related companies [10][11]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the refining sector, highlighting key players such as Sinopec, PetroChina, and Huajin Co., along with private refiners like Hengli Petrochemical and Rongsheng Petrochemical. Additionally, it recommends coal chemical leaders like Baofeng Energy and gasification leaders like Satellite Chemical [11].

Group 1 - The petrochemical industry in China is facing structural overcapacity challenges due to peak demand and declining refined oil needs, leading to excess refining capacity and overproduction of chemicals like ethylene and aromatics [1] - The average profit percentile for major chemical products in the first half of 2025 is expected to be below 50%, with PDH profits dropping to a historical low of 0% [1] - The industry needs to eliminate outdated capacity and tighten new project approvals to achieve high-quality transformation [1] Group 2 - The refining sector is experiencing peak demand and decline in refined oil, necessitating a net elimination of capacity during the 14th Five-Year Plan, rather than just controlling new capacity [2] - The ethylene sector is facing overcapacity due to new oil conversion capacities and requires control over new capacity and project approvals, as well as the elimination of small projects that do not meet energy and carbon standards [2] - Unlike coal, which may not have absolute overcapacity but requires control over operating rates, the petrochemical sector is experiencing overcapacity that necessitates capacity reduction and new project approval controls [2]

Overview - Ethylene is one of the largest chemical products globally, accounting for over 75% of petrochemical products, and plays a crucial role in the national economy [1][12] - In 2023, China's apparent ethylene consumption reached 36.104 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 16.88%. However, in 2024, growth is expected to slow down to 2.70%, with an apparent consumption of 37.08 million tons [1][12] Industry Background - The Chinese government has implemented policies to encourage deep processing of crude oil and expand import channels, promoting the "base, park, and integration" development of the ethylene industry [6] - Environmental protection policies are being enforced to limit emissions and pollution, which may increase short-term operational costs but will drive the industry towards a greener, low-carbon transformation in the long run [6] Production Process - Major ethylene production methods include steam cracking, catalytic cracking, ethane cracking, and coal-to-olefins (MTO/MTP) [4] - Steam cracking remains the primary method globally, while coal-to-olefins technology is unique to China, addressing the country's resource constraints [4] Supply Chain - Ethylene production relies on raw materials such as naphtha, ethane, propane, and coal, with naphtha being the primary feedstock in China [8] - Ethylene is a key organic chemical raw material used to produce polyethylene (PE), ethylene glycol (EG), and other essential chemicals [8] Market Demand - Polyethylene (PE) is the main downstream product of ethylene, accounting for over 60% of consumption, with production capacity expected to reach 35.71 million tons in 2024 [10] - The rapid growth in downstream industries such as packaging, agriculture, and automotive is driving demand for ethylene and its derivatives [6][12] Competitive Landscape - The ethylene industry in China is evolving from a state-owned enterprise-dominated market to a more competitive landscape with the entry of private and foreign companies [18] - In 2024, state-owned enterprises like Sinopec and PetroChina are expected to account for 63.32% of the total ethylene production in China [18] Key Players - Sinopec is projected to produce 13.47 million tons of ethylene in 2024, representing 38.5% of the national total [20] - PetroChina's ethylene production is expected to reach 8.652 million tons in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 8.1%, accounting for 24.8% of the national total [22] Future Trends - Ethylene production capacity is expected to continue growing in the next 2-3 years, with a total of 25.75 million tons per year currently under construction [16] - The industry will focus on adopting environmentally friendly technologies and reducing reliance on fossil fuels, driven by stricter environmental regulations [24]

Group 1 - The Central Committee and State Council of China issued an opinion to strengthen the food safety regulatory system across the entire supply chain, proposing 21 specific measures to address existing issues [2] - The measures include enhancing inspection and quarantine for meat products, establishing a transportation permit system for bulk liquid food, and improving online and offline regulatory integration for food delivery services [2] - The opinion emphasizes the importance of collaboration among regulatory bodies to ensure food safety from production to consumption [2] Group 2 - Multiple fund management companies announced that starting from March 21, the index usage fees for certain index funds will be borne by the fund managers, benefiting investors [3] - This adjustment aligns with the action plan to promote high-quality development of index investment in the capital market [3] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50%, indicating stable labor market conditions but persistent inflation concerns [4] Group 4 - The Ministry of Transport and other departments released implementation details for subsidies on new energy buses and battery replacements, with an average subsidy of 80,000 yuan per bus, up from 60,000 yuan in 2024 [5] - The subsidy funding will be shared between central and local governments, with varying ratios based on regional classifications [5] Group 5 - Yong'an Xing announced that there are currently no plans for a restructuring involving the acquisition of Hello Group within the next 12 months [7] - Wanma Co. stated that the revenue from humanoid robots and robotic dog cables is currently minimal, and future growth depends on market development and customer capacity [8] - Qijing Machinery warned of potential irrational speculation in its stock, with a significant price increase of 77.18% over six trading days [9] Group 6 - Kingsoft Office reported a 12.4% increase in revenue to 5.121 billion yuan and a 24.84% increase in net profit to 1.645 billion yuan for 2024, proposing a cash dividend of 9 yuan per 10 shares [11] - CITIC Special Steel's revenue decreased by 4.22% to 109.203 billion yuan, with a net profit decline of 10.41% to 5.126 billion yuan, proposing a cash dividend of 5.07 yuan per 10 shares [12] - China National Pharmaceutical Group reported a slight revenue increase of 1.81% to 50.597 billion yuan, but a net profit decline of 6.8% to 2 billion yuan, proposing a cash dividend of 8 yuan per 10 shares [13] - Aimeike reported a revenue increase of 5.45% to 3.026 billion yuan and a net profit increase of 5.33% to 1.958 billion yuan, proposing a cash dividend of 38 yuan per 10 shares [14] - Xingyu Co. reported a revenue increase of 29.32% to 13.253 billion yuan and a net profit increase of 27.78% to 1.408 billion yuan, proposing a cash dividend of 13 yuan per 10 shares [15] - Muyuan Foods reported a revenue increase of 24.43% to 137.947 billion yuan and a net profit of 17.881 billion yuan, proposing a cash dividend of 5.72 yuan per 10 shares [16] - Ping An Insurance reported a net profit of 126.607 billion yuan, a 47.8% increase, with total revenue of 1,141.346 billion yuan, proposing a cash dividend of 1.62 yuan per share [17] Group 7 - Guo'an Da plans to invest up to 200 million yuan in a low-altitude economic industrial park project in Pinghe County [18] - Kid King signed a comprehensive cooperation agreement with Tuya Smart to develop AI products and enhance marketing strategies [19] - Sany Heavy Industry proposed a share buyback plan with a total amount between 1 billion and 2 billion yuan [20] - Guangzhou Restaurant announced a share buyback plan of 100 million to 143 million yuan for employee incentives [21] - Debang Technology announced a plan to reduce its stake by up to 3% [22] - Zhongtai Automobile's shareholder plans to reduce its stake by up to 3% [23] - Henghui Security adjusted its share buyback price limit from 30 yuan to 43 yuan per share [24] Group 8 - The ethylene industry is facing pressure due to large-scale capacity additions and declining prices, impacting company performance [26] - The software and services industry is expected to see growth driven by increased capital expenditure from major domestic cloud providers [27]