"方案"要求优化重点化肥生产企业最低生产计划管理，支持煤炭、磷矿石、天然气、硫磺、冶炼副产硫 酸等重点原料供应企业与化肥生产企业签订长协，确保原料供应稳定。受炼厂产出下降、地缘冲突等影 响，2025年初以来部分肥料上游原料（尤其磷肥原料硫磺、硫酸等）价格涨幅显著，原料采购长协签订 和供应量的稳定有望助力肥料企业实现稳产保供。"方案"亦要求完善化肥产运储销贸一体化调控体系， 推动缓／控释肥、水溶肥、液体肥、中微量元素肥等发展。整体而言，具备上下游一体化配套优势的头 部企业竞争力有望凸显。 编辑：吴郑思 新华财经北京9月30日电 华泰证券最新研报指出，9月26日，工信部等7部门印发《石化化工行业稳增长 工作方案（2025—2026年）》的通知（简称"方案"），明确增强高端化供给、科学调控重大项目建设、 做好化肥生产保供等工作举措。"方案"对炼油、乙烯、PX、煤制甲醇和现代煤化工等多个细分领域明 确新增产能调控等要求，将助力供给优化，考虑2025年上半年以来化学原料及制品行业资本开支增速下 行拐点已现，叠加"反内卷"等助力，行业景气有望修复；同时，增强高端化供给引导下，电子／新能源 ／医疗装备等领域高端化工材料，生 ...

Market Overview - On September 26, the market continued its recent trend of low-volume consolidation, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.65%, the Shenzhen Component down 1.76%, and the ChiNext Index down 2.60%[3] - Since reaching a new high of 3899 on September 18, the market has been consolidating around the 5-day moving average, indicating a potential choice of direction ahead[1] Sector Performance - The sectors that saw the most significant inflows on September 26 were passenger cars, auto parts, and wind power equipment, while the largest outflows were from consumer electronics, IT services, and communication equipment[4] - The shipbuilding industry, which has experienced a significant pullback, is highlighted as a potential short-term rebound opportunity[1] Economic Indicators - The petrochemical industry is projected to achieve an average annual growth of over 5% in value added from 2025 to 2026, as per a plan issued by seven government departments[5] - China's digital service trade reached 1.5 trillion yuan in the first half of 2025, marking a year-on-year growth of 6%[9] Fund Dynamics - The stock private equity position index reached a year-to-date high of 78.41%, reflecting a 0.37 percentage point increase from the previous week, indicating a growing optimism among private equity firms[12] - A new private equity fund with a total scale of 20 billion yuan was established in Qingdao, marking a significant development in the insurance private equity sector[11]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implementation of a work plan by seven government departments to stabilize and optimize the petrochemical industry in China from 2025 to 2026, focusing on innovation, investment, market demand, development carriers, and international cooperation [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Growth and Innovation - The petrochemical industry is expected to achieve an average annual growth of over 5% in value added from 2025 to 2026, with improved economic benefits and enhanced technological innovation capabilities [1]. - Emphasis is placed on supporting key products such as electronic chemicals and high-end polyolefins, as well as upgrading bulk products like coatings [1]. Group 2: Investment and Capacity Control - The plan includes strict control over new refining capacity and a scientific approach to the release of new capacities for ethylene and paraxylene, aiming to prevent overcapacity risks in the coal-to-methanol industry [1]. - There will be a push for the renovation and upgrading of outdated facilities, alongside the implementation of AI in the petrochemical sector [1]. Group 3: Market Demand Expansion - The strategy aims to tap into consumption potential in traditional sectors like construction and automotive, while also fostering new applications in emerging fields such as renewable energy and low-altitude economy [2]. - The integration of domestic and foreign trade is highlighted as a key focus area [2]. Group 4: Development Carriers and Competitiveness - The plan includes evaluating the competitiveness and intelligence levels of chemical parks, guiding them to improve and focus on strengthening industrial chains [2]. - The goal is to cultivate advanced manufacturing clusters and characteristic industries among small and medium enterprises [2]. Group 5: Open Cooperation and International Standards - The work plan emphasizes the importance of stabilizing foreign trade policies and advancing overseas resource development through joint ventures [2]. - There is a focus on enhancing cooperation in fields such as fine chemicals, green low-carbon technologies, and artificial intelligence, along with improving standards and product certification systems to align with international practices [2].

Summary of the Conference Call on the Petrochemical Industry Industry Overview - The petrochemical industry in China is facing challenges such as refining capacity nearing its limit and an oversupply of ethylene, necessitating adjustments in supply through anti-involution policies for high-quality development [1][2][4] - The overall profitability of the chemical industry is weak, with only a few resource-advantaged products performing well [1][5] Key Points and Arguments - **Regulatory Changes**: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) will implement policies to stabilize growth in response to industry demand changes, particularly focusing on refining and ethylene sectors [2][4] - **Capacity Control**: New refining projects will require equivalent replacements, and approvals for small coal-to-methanol projects will become more stringent [1][4][7] - **Old Facility Elimination**: Small, outdated refining and ethylene facilities, especially those over 20 years old, will face elimination, with approximately 60 million tons of capacity targeted for adjustment [1][12][15] - **Investment Trends**: Investment in propane dehydrogenation units is decreasing due to poor profitability, while ethylene capacity is regulated to maintain reasonable industry profitability [5][6] Market Dynamics - **Global Market Opportunities**: As European and Korean petrochemical industries face supply tightness and shutdowns, China is positioned to fill market gaps through modern, large-scale production facilities [2][14][17] - **Export Potential**: China can leverage its cost advantages to export to Europe and Southeast Asia, especially as global ethylene markets are expected to rebalance with increasing demand [2][22] Challenges and Future Outlook - **Approval Challenges**: New projects must incorporate advanced materials technology to gain approval, complicating the project initiation process for many companies [8][9] - **Environmental Standards**: The government is emphasizing energy efficiency and environmental standards, which will impact the approval of new projects and the operation of existing facilities [10][13] - **Employment Impact**: The consolidation of small, inefficient facilities may lead to job losses, but the government plans to mitigate this through retraining and support measures [26][28] Strategic Directions - **Industry Consolidation**: The government aims to increase industry concentration by encouraging the integration of smaller firms into larger, more efficient operations [29][33] - **Focus on High-Quality Development**: The anti-involution policy seeks to reduce ineffective competition and promote larger, more capable enterprises to enhance international competitiveness [33][36] Conclusion - The petrochemical industry in China is undergoing significant structural changes driven by regulatory reforms, market dynamics, and a focus on sustainability. The future will likely see a consolidation of capacity, increased export opportunities, and a shift towards high-quality, environmentally friendly production practices.

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese ethylene industry is currently in an expansion cycle, with overseas capacity facing accelerated exit pressures. A turning point for ethylene is expected after 2027 based on global capacity deployment plans [1][3]. Industry Summary - China's ethylene industry is still expanding, with nearly 25 million tons of projects planned for the next three years. Despite rapid capacity expansion in recent years, there remains an ethylene equivalent gap of over 21 million tons in 2024, with an import dependency of 31%. The planned capacity to be added from 2025 to 2027 totals 24.82 million tons, which could potentially close the domestic ethylene gap by the end of 2027 if ongoing projects are completed as scheduled [1][3]. - Overseas capacity is accelerating its exit, particularly in Europe and Japan/Korea, where the risk of shutdown is high due to older production facilities. The capacity expected to exit globally from 2025 to 2027 is estimated to be between 5.97 million and 8.3 million tons, accounting for 3-4% of global capacity [2]. - The global supply structure is being reshaped, with net capacity increases projected at approximately 1.126 million tons in 2025, 1.565 million tons in 2026, and 840 million tons in 2027, reflecting growth rates of 4.9%, 6.5%, and 3.3% respectively. A slowdown in capacity growth is anticipated post-2027, with a marginal improvement expected in the ethylene industry due to an annual demand growth rate of around 3.5% and the time required to absorb new capacity [3]. - To improve the ethylene industry, it is crucial to control new capacity and reduce investment scale. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments are set to evaluate aging petrochemical facilities starting in July 2025, which may lead to further clearance of outdated refining and ethylene capacity. Continuous monitoring of domestic and international policies regarding ethylene is recommended, as strict control over new total capacity and restructuring of old capacity could accelerate the industry's turning point [4]. Company Focus - Key companies to watch in the ethylene production sector include low-cost alternative route producers such as Satellite Chemical (002648.SZ) and Baofeng Energy (600989.SH), as well as private refining enterprises like Hengli Petrochemical (600346.SH), Rongsheng Petrochemical (002493.SZ), and Dongfang Shenghong (000301.SZ). State-owned refining company Shanghai Petrochemical (600688.SH) is also noteworthy, along with other related companies like Huajin Co. (000059.SZ) [5].

Group 1: Computer Industry - The computer sector showed significant improvement in H1 2025, with total revenue reaching 612 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.9% [7][8] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for H1 2025 was 12.8 billion yuan, up 41.9% year-on-year, indicating strong recovery in profitability [8] - Major overseas companies like Microsoft, Google, Meta, and Amazon reported substantial increases in capital expenditures, totaling 87.94 billion USD in Q2 2025, reflecting a growing demand for AI computing power [8][9] Group 2: Media Industry - The media sector's revenue for H1 2025 was 254.9 billion yuan, with a net profit of 21.8 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth of 4.06% and 28.70% respectively [9][10] - The gaming industry experienced a significant rebound, with Q2 2025 net profit growing by 104.47% year-on-year, driven by successful new game launches [10][11] - The film and television sector faced challenges, with a 21.7% decline in revenue in Q2 2025, but new policies are expected to improve content supply and demand [10][11] Group 3: Chemical Industry - Ethylene is a cornerstone of the petrochemical industry, with China becoming the largest producer and consumer globally in 2022 [12][13] - The global ethylene market is projected to reach 146.22 billion USD by 2024, with a CAGR of approximately 5.68% from 2025 to 2034 [12] - The industry is facing a downturn, with many facilities in Europe and Korea expected to exit the market, creating opportunities for Chinese production capacity [12][13] Group 4: Electronic Industry - The semiconductor sector has seen a resurgence, with a 6.15% increase in the electronic index, driven by strong performance in components and optical electronics [16] - The focus on domestic semiconductor capabilities has intensified, with companies like TSMC and SMIC optimistic about future orders and market conditions [16][17] - Storage prices are expected to rise, with NAND Flash prices increasing by 10% to 15% in Q2 2025 due to tightening supply and recovering demand [18] Group 5: Aviation and eVTOL - Wan Feng Ao Wei reported a 32% year-on-year increase in net profit for Q2 2025, driven by growth in the aviation and eVTOL sectors [24][25] - The company is focusing on lightweight materials and expanding its presence in the low-altitude economy, with plans for new aircraft models and partnerships [26][27] - Ying Bo Er also reported a 50% increase in revenue for Q2 2025, with significant growth in its eVTOL and joint module businesses [28][29] Group 6: High-tech Cooling Solutions - Gao Lan Co. is a leader in high-voltage pure water cooling equipment, benefiting from the increasing demand for data center cooling solutions [30][31] - The global data center liquid cooling market is expected to grow significantly, reaching 2.84 billion USD by 2025, with a CAGR of 33.21% [31] - The company has established stable partnerships with major clients and is expanding its overseas operations to meet growing demand [31][32] Group 7: Fashion and Retail - Jiangnan Buyi reported a 4.6% increase in revenue for the 2025 fiscal year, driven by online sales and store expansion [32] - The company maintains a high dividend payout ratio of over 75%, reflecting strong cash flow despite a decline in operating cash flow [32]

Group 1 - Ethylene is a cornerstone of the petrochemical industry, with a wide range of derivatives used in packaging, agriculture, construction, textiles, electronics, and automotive sectors [2] - The upstream raw materials for the ethylene industry chain include naphtha, ethane, and coal, while polyethylene accounts for the largest share of downstream derivatives [2][3] - In 2022, China surpassed the United States to become the world's largest producer and consumer of ethylene [2] Group 2 - The global ethylene market size is projected to reach $146.22 billion in 2024, with a CAGR of approximately 5.68% from 2025 to 2034 [2] - The average operating rate for global ethylene production has been around 80% over the past two years, with negative average investment returns and international ethylene prices at relatively low levels [2] - Europe and South Korea are experiencing a wave of facility exits, with Europe expected to permanently lose 4.6 million tons of ethylene capacity by the end of 2027 [2] Group 3 - The trend in global ethylene raw materials is shifting towards light and diversified sources, with ethane and other light hydrocarbons increasing in proportion [3] - Middle Eastern and North American regions have a competitive edge in ethylene cash production costs due to raw material advantages, while Europe and China rely more on naphtha, resulting in higher production costs [3] - Northeast Asia remains dependent on imports for ethylene and its derivatives, with North America and the Middle East leading in net export volumes [3] Group 4 - From 2022 to 2030, Asia is expected to contribute over 60% of the global new ethylene capacity, with China and India being the main drivers of capacity expansion [4] - China's ethylene production primarily relies on naphtha, with coal/methanol-to-olefins and light hydrocarbon cracking processes complementing each other, creating a unique competitive advantage [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that China's ethylene industry is still in an expansion phase, with significant new projects planned, while overseas capacity is facing accelerated exit pressures. A potential turning point for the ethylene market is anticipated post-2027 if domestic and international policies effectively control new capacity and restructure old capacity [1][2]. Group 2 - China plans to invest nearly 25 million tons in ethylene projects over the next three years, with a projected ethylene equivalent gap exceeding 21 million tons by 2024, leading to an import dependency of 31%. If ongoing projects are completed as scheduled, the domestic ethylene gap may be largely filled by the end of 2027 [1]. - The risk of capacity shutdowns is high in Europe and Japan/South Korea, with an estimated 5.97 to 8.3 million tons of capacity expected to exit globally between 2025 and 2027, accounting for 3-4% of global capacity [1]. - The global supply landscape is being reshaped, with net capacity increases projected at approximately 1.126 million tons in 2025, 1.565 million tons in 2026, and 840 million tons in 2027, reflecting growth rates of 4.9%, 6.5%, and 3.3% respectively. A marginal improvement in the ethylene industry is expected post-2027 due to a demand growth rate of around 3.5% annually [2]. - Domestic policies are crucial for the ethylene industry, with a cap on refining capacity set at 1 billion tons. The potential for further clearing of outdated refining and ethylene capacity exists, especially following evaluations initiated by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology in July 2025 [2].

Group 1: Market Overview - The market experienced fluctuations, with the ChiNext index initially dropping over 1% but recovering in the afternoon, leading to a positive close. The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.04%, the Shenzhen Component increased by 0.45%, and the ChiNext index gained 0.68% [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 2.34 trillion yuan, an increase of 64 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] - Strong performances were noted in sectors such as robotics, internet e-commerce, and logistics, while sectors like pork, non-ferrous metals, and film and television saw declines [1] Group 2: Industry Insights - CITIC Securities indicated that the price of waterproof products in China is stabilizing under the "anti-involution" trend, with a positive outlook for the waterproof sector due to its correlation with construction activity and increased industry concentration [1] - China International Capital Corporation (CICC) projected that the ethylene industry may reach a turning point after 2027, driven by the exit of overseas capacities and potential domestic policy controls on new ethylene production [2] - Galaxy Securities highlighted that the building materials industry will deepen its reforms, focusing on structural optimization, green transformation, digital upgrades, and international expansion, with cement industry capacity reduction expected to accelerate [3] - The demand for high-end fiberglass products is anticipated to grow due to the rapid development of emerging industries, benefiting companies with R&D capabilities and production scale [3] - Leading consumer building materials companies are leveraging both domestic and international markets to enhance profitability and expand overseas production capacity, which is expected to contribute significantly to future performance growth [3]

Group 1: Macro Economic Environment - The A-share market is showing a fluctuating upward trend driven by policy support and capital inflow as the global macroeconomic environment stabilizes [1] Group 2: Petrochemical Industry - The petrochemical industry is expected to see strong profit recovery due to the ongoing "anti-involution" policies, which include capacity elimination, technological upgrades, and collaborative innovation across the industry chain [3] - In August, the China Chemical Product Price Index (CCPI) decreased by 7.48% month-on-month, but the elimination of inefficient capacity is accelerating, leading to significant improvements in supply-demand structures in refining, ethylene, and fluorochemical sectors [3] Group 3: Related Companies in Petrochemical - Key companies in the petrochemical sector include Lingpai Technology, Xiangtan Electric, Putailai, Lushan New Materials, Xiamen Tungsten New Energy, New Agricultural Shares, Jinniu Chemical, Taihe Technology, China Baoan, Xiangfenghua, Tianci Materials, and Dinglong Technology [4] Group 4: Banking Sector - Large commercial banks are enhancing their intermediate income through wealth management in a low-interest-rate environment, while regional banks are flexibly adjusting asset structures based on local advantages [5] - In the first half of 2025, the total profit of the banking industry is expected to grow by 57.9% year-on-year, with an ongoing trend of asset expansion [5] Group 5: Insurance Market - The Hong Kong insurance market's premium income increased by 6.2% year-on-year, driven by strong demand for long-term savings and health insurance products [5] - Domestic insurance companies are expanding service boundaries through models like "insurance + health management" and "insurance + green energy," maintaining a stable dividend realization rate above 100% [5] Group 6: Related Companies in Insurance - Key players in the insurance sector include China Pacific Insurance, Ping An Insurance, China Life Insurance, China People’s Insurance, COFCO Capital, and New China Life Insurance [6] Group 7: Securities Industry - The concentration of leading securities firms is increasing, with new public fund regulations promoting a return to long-term investment strategies and heightened activity in mergers and acquisitions [7] - The industry is expected to see a 9% year-on-year increase in net profit by 2025, with a high probability of the securities index breaking upward [8] Group 8: Tourism and Hospitality Sector - The tourism consumption data from Sichuan shows impressive results, with visitor spending exceeding 912.5 billion yuan, indicating a release of consumption potential through the "tourism + various industries" model [9] - Online booking via mobile devices accounts for over 70%, with young users aged 20-30 becoming the main consumer force [9] Group 9: Renewable Energy Sector - The global energy transition is driving continuous growth in installed capacity for photovoltaics and wind power, with urgent demand for energy storage solutions [11] - The expansion of the green electricity trading market is supported by breakthroughs in ultra-high voltage transmission technology [11] Group 10: Related Companies in Renewable Energy - Key companies in the renewable energy sector include Yangtze Power, Luxin Technology, Jidian Co., Jingyun Tong, Shanghai Electric, Zhaoxin Shares, Huaguang Huaneng, Meiyan Jixiang, and Guotou Power [11] Group 11: Consumer Goods and High-End Products - The government is increasing support for sectors like food and beverage, home appliances, and pharmaceuticals, with a rising penetration of high-end and differentiated products [12] - Leading brands like Moutai and Wuliangye have strong pricing power, while smart home appliance companies like Ecovacs benefit from consumption upgrades [12] Group 12: Infrastructure Development - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes continued investment in traditional infrastructure such as transportation, energy, and water conservancy, alongside an increased focus on new infrastructure like 5G base stations and data centers [12] - Companies involved in engineering contracting and design consulting are expected to benefit from policies supporting regional development initiatives [12]