海外产能出清，炼化行业前景展望 20250826 摘要 国内炼化行业面临反内卷政策，重点在于总量控制和结构优化，鼓励 "减油增化"，淘汰老旧小型装置，新建项目需进行减量置换，以实现 产业升级和节能减排目标。 全球石化行业正经历产能清退，尤其在日韩和欧洲，以应对周期性低谷 和环保压力。韩国计划削减 270-370 万吨石化产能，欧洲预计到 2026/2027 年清退约 300 万吨乙烯产能，这将影响全球供应链和中间 原料价格。 8 月 30 日是地方政府完成企业和装置排查的关键节点，之后工信部将发 布淘汰标准，预计 20 年以上且规模小于 200 万吨的炼油装置和小于 50 万吨的乙烯装置可能被列入淘汰清单。 炼油行业将淘汰 200 万吨以下小型装置，新建项目需达 1,000 万吨以上 规模。乙烯行业面临淘汰或整合小于 50 万吨的老旧装置的压力，新建 乙烯项目审批严格，轻质化路线更受青睐。 老旧设备淘汰与改造利好一体化大型央企及民营沿海炼化企业，并带动 节能降碳、智能制造相关产业发展，如反应器、换热器、炉管及数字化 工艺等。 Q&A 当前炼化行业的盈利情况如何？ 目前炼化行业的盈利处于过去十七八年中的最低点。 ...

Core Insights - The petrochemical industry in China experienced a stable economic performance in the first half of the year, with a total revenue of 7.77 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.6% [1] Group 1: Economic Performance - Crude oil production, import, processing, and consumption all saw year-on-year growth, marking a turnaround from last year's declines [1] - Major chemical products' production and consumption both achieved "double growth," indicating stable market demand for petrochemical products and chemical materials [1] - The chemical sector outperformed the oil and gas extraction and refining sectors, with revenue and import-export values increasing, while profits decreased [1] Group 2: Trade Dynamics - The import and export dynamics showed a "volume increase, price decrease" trend, with total import-export value, import value, and trade deficit all declining year-on-year, while export value slightly increased by 0.4% [1] Group 3: Product Trends - Both production and consumption of refined oil experienced a "double decline," attributed to the impact of new energy vehicles on gasoline markets and liquefied natural gas heavy trucks on diesel consumption [2] - The production rate of refined oil dropped to 55.3%, down from 59.7% in the previous year, reflecting the industry's structural adjustments and transition towards "reducing oil and increasing chemicals" [2] Group 4: Price Trends - Prices for crude oil and major petrochemical products continued to decline, influenced by ongoing geopolitical conflicts and economic uncertainties [2] Group 5: Future Outlook - The industry aims to prioritize quality improvement and efficiency enhancement, focusing on cost reduction, potential exploration, and optimization [2] - There is a push for accelerating the high-end and green transformation of the petrochemical industry, alongside efforts to manage "involutionary" competition and ensure the orderly exit of outdated capacities [2]

石化和炼油行业反内卷，对化工行业影响几何？ 20250820 摘要 石化行业面临国内外市场产品价格下降和激烈竞争，以及反倾销诉讼的 挑战。国家通过摸排产能、淘汰重复装置和技术升级等措施，推动节能 降碳和产业结构优化，反内卷成为年度重点任务。 产能预警报告显示，炼油、丙烯、PVC 等 14 种产品为高风险，纯碱、 乙二醇等 10 种为较高风险，存在结构性过剩问题，低端产品过剩而高 端产品依赖进口，需淘汰老旧装置并引进先进技术。 民营企业在石化行业转型升级中更具优势，其设备新技术先进且盈利状 况良好，更愿意投入节能改造。央国企则面临更大的转型压力，需对老 旧装置进行核心改造升级。 碳达峰前，石化行业新增产能包括一次炼油能力增加 4,000 万吨，代表 先进技术和方向，不会导致过剩。乙烯等基础原料的新增装置将为"十 五五"期间高质量发展奠定基础。 石化产业链发展依赖政策引导和下游市场需求，鼓励炼化一体化、延长 产业链。医药、生物、航空航天、新能源等新兴市场需求增加，推动可 降解材料 BDO 和光伏材料 POE 等产品快速发展。 Q&A 石化行业在反内卷政策背景下的现状和发展趋势如何？ 反内卷政策对石化行业来说是一个 ...

Core Insights - The article highlights the rapid development of the green petrochemical industry in Jieyang, Guangdong, with significant projects boosting the local economy and positioning the city as a new growth hub in the petrochemical sector [1][5]. Group 1: Industry Development - The Dannan Sea Petrochemical Industrial Zone has achieved significant milestones, including passing the second batch of chemical park reviews and successfully trialing a world-first continuous and large-scale waste plastic chemical recycling project [1][2]. - The Guangdong Petrochemical integrated refining and chemical project, with an investment of 65.4 billion yuan, has become a major player in the national petrochemical landscape, processing 20 million tons of crude oil annually and producing various petrochemical products [2][4]. - The industrial zone is expected to generate over 50 billion yuan in total output value from 14 downstream petrochemical projects [1]. Group 2: Economic Impact - Jieyang's GDP growth surged to 7.5% in 2023, ranking first in Guangdong, following the establishment of major petrochemical projects that have revitalized the local economy [5]. - The region is transitioning from a traditional manufacturing base to focus on green petrochemicals and offshore wind power, creating a diversified industrial structure [5][6]. Group 3: Technological Innovations - The successful launch of the 20,000 tons/year mixed waste plastic deep cracking project by Dongyue Chemical represents a significant technological breakthrough, positioning Jieyang as a potential global leader in plastic chemical recycling [6][7]. - The Guangdong Petrochemical project has developed 17 new chemical products, marking a shift from oil refining to integrated refining and chemical production [3][4]. Group 4: Future Prospects - Plans are in place to transform the Dannan Sea Petrochemical Industrial Zone into a hub for high-end chemical new materials and fine chemicals, aiming for an industrial output value of 250 billion yuan by the end of 2035 [8]. - The establishment of a "wet electronic chemicals specialty industrial park" is intended to support the electronic information industry, leveraging existing raw materials to enhance competitiveness [7][8].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the supply-demand imbalance in the anhydride industry is worsening due to significant capacity expansion and weak downstream demand, leading to a continued decline in market conditions [1][2] Group 2 - Capacity is continuously being released, with new anhydride production capacity expected to reach 1.25 million tons per year in 2024, resulting in a total capacity of 3.08 million tons, an increase of over 68% compared to 2023 [1] - In 2025, over 1 million tons of new capacity is anticipated, with 450,000 tons of new capacity added by the end of May 2024, a year-on-year increase of nearly 15% [1] - The market remains sluggish, with anhydride prices continuing to decline, reaching a near five-year low, and capacity utilization dropping to around 48% [1][2] Group 3 - Demand support is weak, with oversupply being a significant factor in the ongoing downturn of the anhydride industry [2] - Despite an increase in downstream product consumption last year, the growth rate lagged behind raw material supply, exacerbating the supply-demand imbalance [2] - Economic slowdown and low real estate activity are impacting end demand, with limited growth in emerging downstream BDO and an oversupply of acid anhydride products [2] Group 4 - To alleviate domestic market pressure, production companies are actively exploring overseas markets, with a record high export volume of anhydride expected in 2024 [2] - In the first five months of this year, cumulative anhydride exports increased by 11.32% year-on-year, providing some relief to the domestic market, although it does not fundamentally resolve the supply-demand conflict [2] Group 5 - Facing intense competition, an integrated model is expected to be the mainstream development approach for anhydride companies in the future [2] - Leading anhydride producers are equipped with comprehensive industry chain structures to reduce overall production costs, while also relying on technological innovation to enhance market competitiveness [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Since 2020, China's ethylene production capacity has been growing rapidly, with a compound growth rate of 14.3% from 2020 to 2024. From 2025 to 2027, there are plans to put into operation nearly 30 million tons of ethylene plants, which will drive up the demand for upstream raw materials such as naphtha [2][8]. - Due to the limitations of the growth of domestic crude oil primary processing capacity and naphtha circulation volume, the growth of naphtha demand is expected to be supplemented by imports [3][9]. - Short - process ethylene/PX plants that need to purchase naphtha externally are more vulnerable to production shocks and may become the marginal capacity affecting pricing [3][9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Preface - China's ethylene production capacity has been accelerating since 2020, with a five - year compound growth rate of 14.3% from 2020 to 2024. In 2024, the ethylene production capacity was 55.42 million tons, almost doubling compared to 2019. From 2025 to 2027, there are plans to put into operation nearly 30 million tons of ethylene plants. Naphtha cracking is the main process for ethylene production, accounting for 68% of the total ethylene production capacity by the end of 2024. The report aims to predict the growth of domestic naphtha demand by analyzing the existing ethylene/PX plants that need to purchase naphtha externally and the non - integrated ethylene plant construction plans from 2025 to 2027 [8]. 3.2 Existing Ethylene Plants Purchasing Naphtha Externally and Fewer PX Plants - There are about 14 ethylene plants using naphtha steam cracking in China without atmospheric and vacuum distillation capacity, with a total capacity of 10.24 million tons. These plants mainly use externally purchased naphtha as feedstock, and some also use light hydrocarbons. If fully operational, they would need to purchase more than 30 million tons of naphtha externally each year [11]. - There are relatively few PX plants purchasing naphtha externally, such as Qingdao Lidan and Fujia Dahua. This is because reforming units require heavy naphtha with higher aromatic potential requirements, while the market - circulated naphtha is mostly light naphtha [15]. 3.3 Intensive Commissioning of Steam Cracking Plants from 2025 to 2027, Potentially Further Increasing Naphtha Demand - From the end of 2024 to 2025, 14 steam cracking plants with a total capacity of 17.4 million tons are planned to be commissioned. Among them, 4 plants with a total capacity of 4.9 million tons need to purchase naphtha externally, with a theoretical external purchase demand of over 10 million tons [16]. - From 2025 to 2027 (including Q4 2024), about 31.69 million tons of ethylene cracking projects will be commissioned, mainly in 2025 - 2026. Some projects need to purchase naphtha externally. After the concentrated commissioning in 2025, several plants such as Fujian Zhongsha Petrochemical and CNOOC Shell (Phase III) will need to purchase naphtha externally from 2026 to 2028 [17]. - The growth of reforming capacity in the next few years is relatively small. About over 10 million tons of capacity will be gradually released from the end of 2024 to 2027, mostly as supporting facilities for new or expanded large - scale refineries [17]. 3.4 Limited Growth of Domestic Primary Processing Capacity, Requiring Import Supplements - Although new and改扩建 projects of refineries are expected to add over 100 million tons of atmospheric and vacuum distillation capacity, the actual growth of primary processing capacity is expected to be much lower, which may limit the increase in naphtha supply from atmospheric and vacuum distillation [23]. - According to relevant policies, by the end of 2025, the national crude oil primary processing capacity should be controlled within 1 billion tons. The elimination of old capacities may accompany the commissioning of new atmospheric and vacuum distillation capacities, restricting the increase in naphtha supply [23]. - The naphtha of domestic major refineries is mostly for self - use, with limited incremental tradable resources. The supply of naphtha from Shandong local refineries is expected to shrink, and the domestic supply gap of naphtha has been widening since 2022. The import volume is expected to further increase in 2025 [26]. - Globally, the supply of naphtha mainly comes from the Middle East, Russia, and the United States. From 2025 to 2027, the growth of naphtha supply may be relatively limited due to factors such as geopolitics and international sanctions [27]. 3.5 Early - Commissioned Plants Purchasing Naphtha Externally May Become Marginal Plants - If naphtha resources become scarce in the future, short - process ethylene/PX plants that need to purchase naphtha externally are more vulnerable to production shocks and may become the marginal capacity affecting pricing [32]. - Among the existing ethylene/PX plants purchasing naphtha externally in China, there are 3.89 million tons of ethylene plants and 1.7 million tons of PX plants commissioned before 2010. There are also many short - and medium - process plants in Japan and South Korea, and their profits may be more affected by naphtha price fluctuations [32].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) has achieved a continuous growth rate of 50% in its new materials business over the past three years, with an expected production capacity of 5 million tons by the end of this year and a future target of 15 million tons [1] - CNPC is actively pursuing a strategy of "reducing oil and increasing chemicals" and "increasing specialty products," aiming to adjust its refining structure by decreasing the output of diesel and gasoline while increasing the proportion of chemical products [1] - In 2024, CNPC's listed company, PetroChina (601857.SH), is projected to produce approximately 2 million tons of new materials [1]

Group 1 - The provincial political consultative conference chairman Zhou Bo conducted research in Panjin City focusing on the development of the fine chemical industry cluster and the growth of the private economy [1][2] - Zhou Bo visited several companies including Liaoning Jincheng Petrochemical Co., Panjin Northern Asphalt Fuel Co., and Baolai Liande Basell Petrochemical Co., to understand their operational management and production conditions [1] - At the Huajin Amoco fine chemical and raw material engineering project site, Zhou Bo emphasized the importance of accelerating construction while ensuring safety [1] Group 2 - Zhou Bo encouraged Liaoning Zhonglian Automation Technology Co. to deepen its engagement in the production service industry to contribute to the high-quality development of modern services in the province [2] - At Dalian University of Technology Panjin Industrial Technology Research Institute, Zhou Bo learned about research achievements in energy conservation and environmental protection in the chemical sector [2] - Zhou Bo highlighted the need to promote the "reduce oil and increase chemicals" strategy, focusing on the development of new chemical materials and fine chemical products while adhering to green development principles [2]

Group 1 - The petrochemical industry is transitioning from fuel to material properties, driven by global energy transformation, leading to breakthroughs in technology and equipment [1] - China's traditional refining capacity is facing oversupply pressure, prompting a focus on the "reduce oil, increase chemicals" strategy to enhance the production capacity of chemical raw materials like ethylene and propylene [1] - The industry is confronted with external pressures such as intensified geopolitical conflicts and cost advantages in the Middle East and North America, necessitating diversification of raw materials and technological innovation [1] Group 2 - The coal chemical industry is accelerating its green and low-carbon transformation, with developments in coal-based specialty fuels and biodegradable materials [1] - The deep coupling of coal chemical and new energy is seen as an inevitable trend, potentially leading to zero-carbon emissions through the use of green electricity and hydrogen [2] - The industry must strengthen supply chain security by replacing imported equipment with domestic alternatives, as demonstrated by the delivery of over 680 sets of equipment for major coal chemical and refining projects [2]

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 753.11 billion yuan for Q1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 7.3%, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 2.3% to 46.81 billion yuan [1] - The oil and gas business contributed to a slight increase in operating profit, which reached 65.18 billion yuan, up 0.8% year-on-year [1] Group 1: Oil and Gas Performance - The company achieved an oil and gas equivalent production of 46.7 million barrels, a year-on-year increase of 0.7%, with crude oil production at 24 million barrels, up 0.3% [2] - Natural gas production reached 13.613 billion cubic feet, a year-on-year increase of 1.2%, while the average selling price of natural gas decreased by 3.9% to 9.01 USD per thousand cubic feet [2] - The unit operating cost for oil and gas was 9.76 USD per barrel, down 6.0% year-on-year, indicating effective cost reduction [2] Group 2: Refining and Chemical Business - The company processed 33.7 million barrels of crude oil, a decrease of 4.7% year-on-year, with refined product output declining across gasoline, diesel, and kerosene [3] - The operating profit margin for refining and chemical business was 1.9%, down 0.7 percentage points year-on-year, reflecting reduced profitability [3] - The company is focusing on chemical transformation, with ethylene production remaining stable at 2.27 million tons, while synthetic resin and polymer production showed mixed results [3] Group 3: Shareholder Confidence - The controlling shareholder, China National Petroleum Corporation, plans to increase its stake in the company by investing between 2.8 billion and 5.6 billion yuan over the next 12 months, representing 0.2% to 0.4% of the company's total market value as of April 29, 2025 [4] Group 4: Investment Outlook - The company is positioned as a leading player in the domestic oil and gas sector, with rich upstream resources and a complete downstream supply chain [5] - Projected net profits for 2025 to 2027 are 143.13 billion, 154.33 billion, and 164.36 billion yuan, with corresponding EPS of 0.78, 0.84, and 0.90 yuan per share [5]