南华原木产业风险管理日报 2025年9月16日 ——是的，原木行情很独立 宋霁鹏（投资咨询证号：Z0016598 ） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 原木价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原木 | 780-830 | 16.28% | 67.4% | source： 南华研究 原木套保策略表 | 行为导 | 情景分析 | 现货敞 | 策略推荐 | 套保工 | 买卖方 | 套保比例 | 建议入场 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 向 | | 口 | | 具 | 向 | （%） | 区间 | | 库存管 | 原木进口量偏高库存高位，担心价格 | 多 | 为了防止存货叠加损失，可以根据企业的库存情况，做空原木期货来锁定利润， | lg2511 卖出 | | 25% | 820-830 | | 理 | 下跌 | | 弥补企业的生产成本 | | | | | | 采购管 | 采购常备库存偏低，希望根 ...

南华原木产业风险管理日报 2025年8月14日 宋霁鹏（投资咨询证号：Z0016598 ） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 原木价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原木 | 820-860 | 16.28% | 67.4% | source： 南华研究 原木套保策略表 | 行为导 | 情景分析 | 现货敞 | 策略推荐 | 套保工 | 买卖方 | 套保比例 | 建议入场 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 向 | | 口 | | 具 | 向 | （%） | 区间 | | 库存管 理 | 原木进口量偏高库存高位，担心价格 下跌 | 多 | 为了防止存货叠加损失，可以根据企业的库存情况，做空原木期货来锁定利润， 弥补企业的生产成本 | lg2509 卖出 | | 25% | 850-875 | | 采购管 | 采购常备库存偏低，希望根据订单情 | | 为了防止原木价格上涨而抬升采购成本，可以在目 ...

Report Information - Report Name: Nanhua Log Industry Risk Management Daily Report - Date: July 3, 2025 - Title: Narrow Fluctuation, Lack of Driving Force - Analyst: Song Jipeng [1] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information provided Core View - The 09 contract rose 0.25% today, added 626 lots, and closed at 792.5. The market is in narrow - range consolidation with a lack of short - term market drivers. Although there is a certain peak - season expectation on the consumption side, the expected increase is limited. The 09 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term. The bottom price of the 09 contract has strong short - term support, and one can sell the lg2509P750 contract when the price of lg2509 drops [3][4] Summary by Directory Log Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for logs is 740 - 820, the current 20 - day rolling volatility is 16.28%, and the current volatility's historical percentile over 3 years is 67.4% [2] Log Hedging Strategy - **Inventory Management**: When log imports are high and inventory is at a high level, and one is worried about price drops, with a long spot exposure, it is recommended to short log futures (lg2509) to lock in profits and make up for production costs, with a hedging ratio of 25% and an entry range of 800 - 820 [2] - **Procurement Management**: When the regular procurement inventory is low and one hopes to purchase according to order situations, with a short spot exposure, it is recommended to buy log futures (lg2509) at present to lock in procurement costs in advance, with a hedging ratio of 25% and an entry range of 750 - 800 [2] Core Contradiction - The 09 contract rose 0.25% and added 626 lots, closing at 792.5. The market is in narrow - range consolidation. On the spot side, driven by the demand for laminated wood, the quotes of large A - grade logs in Shandong and Jiangsu increased, while the prices of medium and small A - grade logs remained unchanged. In the last week of June (June 23 - 29), the total number of departing log ships from New Zealand was 13, the same as the previous period. The number of ships directly bound for China was 10, with a shipping volume of 370,000 JASm³, the same as the previous period but with a volume decrease of 10,000 JASm³ [3] New Zealand Log Market - The AWG quote in New Zealand in June was the same as in May, with the A - grade log quote at 116 New Zealand dollars per JASm³. The estimated arrival price of Chinese ships in July is 113 - 115 US dollars per JASm³, showing a slight increase. The log supply in New Zealand decreased by about 10% due to seasonal factors, corresponding to a seasonal decline in domestic inventory. The New Zealand log market faces difficulties, including the impact of winter climate leading to a seasonal production off - season, continuous oversupply of structural saw - timber, and significant suppression of market demand by high interest rates and credit tightening, resulting in a continuous decline in the start - up rate of residential and commercial construction projects. The average freight for loading a log ship from two ports in the North Island to China is 30 US dollars per JASm³. The weakening US dollar and rising freight rates support the CFR quote. The previous low of the 09 contract has relatively strong support recently [4] 利多解读 - Traders are willing to jointly support prices due to continuous import losses; import costs continue to rise; the overall sentiment of commodities has warmed up [8] 利空解读 - The outflow of delivery products from the 07 contract may suppress the spot price; the shipping volume of foreign suppliers continues to increase [8] Spot and Basis - The report provides detailed spot prices, price changes, and basis data for different specifications of logs at different ports on July 3, 2025, and gives the calculation formula for the converted basis [6][8][9] Log Data Overview - **Supply**: The radiation pine import volume in May 2025 was 1.69 million m³, a month - on - month increase of 40,000 m³ and a year - on - year decrease of 2.3% [10] - **Inventory**: As of June 27, 2025, the port inventory in China was 3.36 million m³, a week - on - week increase of 10,000 m³ and a year - on - year increase of 7.0%. The port inventory in Shandong was 2,011,000 m³, a week - on - week increase of 21,000 m³ and a year - on - year increase of 8.8%. The port inventory in Jiangsu was 1,114,500 m³, a week - on - week increase of 4,655 m³ and a year - on - year increase of 47.1% [10] - **Demand**: As of June 27, 2025, the average daily log outbound volume at ports was 65,700 m³, a week - on - week increase of 2,100 m³ and a year - on - year decrease of 17.4%. The average daily outbound volume in Shandong was 35,500 m³, a week - on - week increase of 1,500 m³ and a year - on - year increase of 35.0%. The average daily outbound volume in Jiangsu was 22,200 m³, a week - on - week decrease of 400 m³ and a year - on - year increase of 0.5% [10] - **Profit**: As of July 4, 2025, the radiation pine import profit was - 44 yuan/m³, a week - on - week increase of 1 yuan/m³; the spruce import profit was - 64 yuan/m³, a week - on - week decrease of 3 yuan/m³ [10] - **Main Spot Prices**: The prices of some main log specifications at ports on July 3, 2025, showed no change compared to the previous period, with varying year - on - year decreases [10]

南华原木产业风险管理日报 2025年6月10日 宋霁鹏（投资咨询证号：Z0016598 ） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 原木价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原木 | 740-800 | 16.28% | 67.4% | source： 南华研究 原木套保策略表 | 行为导 | 情景分析 | 现货敞 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | 套保比例（%） | 建议入场 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 向 | | 口 | | | | | 区间 | | 库存管 理 | 原木进口量偏高库存 高位，担心价格下跌 | 多 | 为了防止存货叠加损失，可以根据企 业的库存情况，做空原木期货来锁定 利润，弥补企业的生产成本 | lg2507 | 卖出 | 25% | 800-785 9.5-14 | | | | | 买入看跌期权防止价格大跌，同时卖 出看涨期权降低资金成本 | lg2507P ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The log market is expected to continue its oscillating and weakening pattern. Although the market has not shown a signal of stabilizing from the decline, the downside space is limited, and excessive bearishness is not advisable. Attention should be paid to the long - entry opportunity when the 09 contract stabilizes after a decline. Meanwhile, as the option volatility has slightly increased, attention should be paid to the opportunities of selling out - of - the - money put options and buying out - of - the - money call options on the 07 contract [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Log Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for logs is 740 - 800, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 16.28% and a historical percentile of 67.4% over three years [2]. Log Hedging Strategy - **Inventory Management**: For high log import volume and inventory, to prevent inventory losses, enterprises can short log futures (lg2507, sell, 25%, entry range 800 - 785) to lock in profits and cover production costs; buy put options (lg2507P775, buy, 50%, entry range 9.5 - 14) to prevent sharp price drops and sell call options (lg2507C800, sell, entry range 4.5 - 7.5) to reduce capital costs [2]. - **Procurement Management**: When the regular procurement inventory is low and procurement is based on orders, to prevent rising log prices from increasing procurement costs, buy log futures (lg2507, buy, 50%, entry range 750 - 800) to lock in procurement costs in advance; sell put options (lg2507P750, sell, 75%, entry range 5.5 - 12) to collect premiums and lock in the spot purchase price if the price drops [2]. Core Contradiction - Today, the 07 main contract increased its positions by 2057 lots and fell 1.58%, while the 09 contract increased positions by 813 lots and fell 1.16%. The spot price remained stable, and the basis strengthened. The closing basis was 35.1 based on the 8% over - length price of 5.9 - meter medium - grade A logs. In the 22nd week, 11 vessels of New Zealand logs were expected to arrive at 18 ports, 2 more than last week, a week - on - week increase of 22%, with a total arrival volume of about 372,000 cubic meters, an increase of 33,000 cubic meters from last week, a week - on - week increase of 10%. The May FOB price of 110 US dollars had active transactions, and subsequent arrivals were expected to remain high. June - July is the off - season for downstream consumption, and there is expected to be some pressure on the outbound volume. The latest FOB price is 110 - 112 US dollars, a 2 - dollar increase from the previous period. It is difficult to see a weakening of foreign quotes. Traders' losses have not been repaired, and they have the intention to jointly support prices. The futures price is at a discount, and there is no profit in selling for hedging, so there is no strong motivation to sell on the futures market [3]. Spot and Basis - On June 5, 2025, the spot prices of various specifications of logs in different ports remained unchanged compared to the previous day and five days ago. The basis (after conversion) was calculated according to the formula: basis (after conversion)=spot price with 108% over - length - main contract futures price ± premium/discount (subtract premium or add discount) [5][8]. Log Data Overview - **Supply**: The radiation pine import volume in April 2025 was 1.65 million cubic meters, a decrease of 60,000 cubic meters from the previous month and a year - on - year decrease of 10.3% [9]. - **Inventory**: As of May 30, 2025, the national port inventory was 3.41 million cubic meters, a decrease of 20,000 cubic meters from the previous week and a year - on - year increase of 2.1%. The port inventory in Shandong was 1,895,000 cubic meters, a decrease of 25,000 cubic meters from the previous week and a year - on - year decrease of 4.5%. The port inventory in Jiangsu was 1,135,153 cubic meters, an increase of 35,553 cubic meters from the previous week and a year - on - year increase of 35.3% [9]. - **Demand**: As of May 30, 2025, the average daily outbound volume of logs at ports was 628,000 cubic meters, an increase of 7,000 cubic meters from the previous week and a year - on - year decrease of 9.9%. The average daily outbound volume in Shandong was 331,000 cubic meters, an increase of 11,000 cubic meters from the previous week and a year - on - year decrease of 1.8%. The average daily outbound volume in Jiangsu was 229,000 cubic meters, a decrease of 7,000 cubic meters from the previous week and a year - on - year decrease of 12.3% [9]. - **Profit**: As of June 6, 2025, the radiation pine import profit was - 46 yuan per cubic meter, an increase of 1 yuan from the previous week, and the spruce import profit was - 108 yuan per cubic meter, also an increase of 1 yuan from the previous week [9]. Factors Affecting the Market - **Positive Factors**: Due to continuous import losses, traders have the intention to jointly support prices; macro - policies are exerting force; the overall sentiment of commodities has improved [7]. - **Negative Factors**: The demand is weaker than expected, and the sales are slow; the subsequent shipping volume has recovered [7].

Report Overview - Report Name: Nanhua Log Industry Risk Management Daily Report - Date: May 22, 2025 - Analyst: Song Jipeng [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The main contract today added 335 lots, closing at 777.5 yuan/m³, down -0.13%, with average trading activity. Spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained stable but generally declined compared to last week's quotes. The Contango structure's slope flattened compared to last week, with a 7 - 9 spread of -14. It is expected that June - July will see a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the market is expected to fluctuate weakly [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Log Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for logs is 750 - 820 yuan/m³, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 17.06% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 75.8% [2]. Log Hedging Strategy Table Inventory Management - When log imports are high and inventory is at a high level, and there are concerns about price drops, for long - position inventory, it is recommended to short log futures (lg2507) with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 850 - 790 yuan/m³ to lock in profits and cover production costs. Also, buy put options (lg2507P800) with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 9.5 - 14 yuan to prevent sharp price drops, and sell call options (lg2507C850) at an entry range of 5.5 - 7.5 yuan to reduce capital costs [2]. Procurement Management - When the regular procurement inventory is low and procurement is based on orders, for short - position inventory, it is recommended to buy log futures (lg2507) with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 750 - 800 yuan/m³ to lock in procurement costs. Sell put options (lg2507P750) with a 75% hedging ratio at an entry range of 5.5 - 12 yuan to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs, and lock in the spot log purchase price if the price drops [2]. Core Contradictions - The main contract added 335 lots today, closing at 777.5 yuan/m³, down -0.13%, with average trading activity. Spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained stable but generally declined compared to last week. The Contango structure's slope flattened compared to last week, with a 7 - 9 spread of -14. In April 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of new housing starts was -23.8%, and China's total coniferous log imports were 2.185 million m³, a year - on - year decrease of 14.1%, with a larger decline than the previous month and a month - on - month decrease of 5.7%. Due to the decline in foreign shipping profits in April and May, the contract signing volume decreased, and the reduction in arrivals will be reflected in June. Port inventory was 3.41 million m³, a week - on - week decrease of 20,000 m³ and a year - on - year decrease of 3.4%. The average daily port outbound volume was 61,400 m³, a week - on - week decrease of 1,000 m³. It is expected that June - July will see a pattern of weak supply and demand. The price difference between wood squares and logs in Rizhao is trending wider, and downstream profits are rising. Currently, the basis of almost all log specifications is positive, but there is some market controversy about the deviation of the size difference. Attention should be paid to the spot feedback of subsequent supply reduction and subsequent delivery games. The market is expected to fluctuate weakly [3]. Spot and Basis - The report provides the spot prices, price changes, spot price increases after conversion (108%), main contract prices, delivery premiums and discounts, basis, and converted basis for different specifications of logs in Rizhao and Taicang ports on May 22, 2025 [3][6]. Log Data Overview - **Supply**: In April 2025, radiation pine imports were 1.65 million m³, a month - on - month decrease of 60,000 m³ and a year - on - year decrease of 10.3%. - **Inventory**: As of May 16, 2025, China's port inventory was 3.41 million m³, a week - on - week decrease of 20,000 m³ and a year - on - year decrease of 3.4%. Shandong's port inventory was 1,899,000 m³, a week - on - week increase of 31,000 m³ and a year - on - year decrease of 1.6%. Jiangsu's port inventory was 1,118,568 m³, a week - on - week decrease of 24,968 m³ and a year - on - year increase of 30.8%. - **Demand**: As of May 16, 2025, the average daily port outbound volume of logs was 61,400 m³, a week - on - week decrease of 1,000 m³ and a year - on - year increase of 15.0%. Shandong's average daily outbound volume was 32,000 m³, a week - on - week decrease of 1,000 m³ and a year - on - year increase of 8.5%. Jiangsu's average daily outbound volume was 22,900 m³, a week - on - week increase of 700 m³ and a year - on - year increase of 28.7%. - **Profit**: As of May 23, 2025, the import profit of radiation pine was -48 yuan/m³, a week - on - week decrease of 9 yuan/m³, and the import profit of spruce was -109 yuan/m³, a week - on - week increase of 16 yuan/m³. - **Main Spot**: On May 22, 2025, the spot prices of 3.9 medium (3.8A) logs in Rizhao Port, 4 medium (3.8A) logs in Taicang Port, 5.9 medium (5.8A) logs in Rizhao Port, and 6 medium (5.8A) logs in Taicang Port were 750 yuan/m³, 770 yuan/m³, 770 yuan/m³, and 780 yuan/m³ respectively, with no price changes on the day and year - on - year decreases of 8.5%, 4.9%, 8.3%, and 6.0% respectively [7]. Factors Affecting the Market - **Positive Factors**: Traders have the intention to jointly support prices due to continuous import losses. Attention should be paid to the spot feedback of subsequent reduction in arrivals. Macroeconomic policies may play a role [5]. - **Negative Factors**: Demand may be weaker than expected, and the goods movement is slow. The subsequent shipping volume may recover [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - The report predicts that the log market will experience a pattern of weak supply and demand from June to July, with the market expected to fluctuate weakly. It also suggests paying attention to the spot feedback of subsequent supply reduction and the subsequent delivery game [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Log Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for logs is 750 - 820, with a current volatility (20 - day rolling) of 17.24% and a current volatility historical percentile (3 - year) of 76.9% [2]. Log Hedging Strategy Table - **Inventory Management**: For high - inventory levels worried about price drops, strategies include short - selling log futures (lg2507, sell, 25%, entry range 850 - 790) to lock in profits and offset production costs; buying put options (lg2507P800, buy, entry range 9.5 - 14) to prevent price drops and selling call options (lg2507C85, sell, 50%) to reduce capital costs [2]. - **Procurement Management**: When the procurement of regular inventory is low and aiming to lock in procurement costs, strategies include buying log futures (lg2507, buy, 50%, entry range 750 - 800); selling put options (lg2507P75, sell, 75%, entry range 5.5 - 12) to collect premiums and lock in the spot purchase price if prices fall [2]. Core Contradictions - Yesterday, the spot prices of various specifications at Shandong Rizhao Port decreased. The slope of the Contango structure has flattened compared to last week. In April 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of new housing starts was - 23.8%, the total import volume of Chinese coniferous logs was 2.185 million cubic meters, a year - on - year decrease of 14.1%, with the decline rate expanding compared to the previous month and a month - on - month decrease of 5.7%. Due to the decline in foreign shipping profits in April and May, the contract signing volume decreased, and the reduction in arrival volume will be reflected in June. Port inventory is 3.41 million m³, with a week - on - week difference of - 20,000 m³ and a year - on - year decline of 3.4%. The daily average port outbound volume is 61,400 m³, with a week - on - week difference of - 1,000 m³. The price difference between wood squares and logs in the Rizhao area has been expanding, and downstream profits have increased. Currently, the basis of almost all specifications of wood after conversion is positive, with no obvious short - hedging profits [3]. Bullish Interpretation - Due to continuous import losses, traders have the intention to jointly support prices. Attention should be paid to the spot feedback of the subsequent reduction in arrival volume [4]. - Macroeconomic policies are exerting force. Bearish Interpretation - Demand is weaker than expected, and sales are slow. - The subsequent shipping volume is expected to recover [7]. Log Data Overview - **Supply**: The radiation pine import volume in March 2025 was 1.71 million m³, a month - on - month increase of 450,000 m³ and a year - on - year increase of 5.6% [9]. - **Inventory**: As of May 16, 2025, the national port inventory was 3.41 million m³, a week - on - week decrease of 20,000 m³ and a year - on - year decrease of 3.4%; Shandong port inventory was 1,899,000 m³, a week - on - week increase of 31,000 m³ and a year - on - year decrease of 1.6%; Jiangsu port inventory was 1,118,568 m³, a week - on - week decrease of 24,968 m³ and a year - on - year increase of 30.8% [9]. - **Demand**: As of May 16, 2025, the national daily average port outbound volume of logs was 61,400 m³, a week - on - week decrease of 1,000 m³ and a year - on - year increase of 15.0%; Shandong's daily average outbound volume was 32,000 m³, a week - on - week decrease of 10,000 m³ and a year - on - year increase of 8.5%; Jiangsu's daily average outbound volume was 22,900 m³, a week - on - week increase of 7,000 m³ and a year - on - year increase of 28.7% [9]. - **Profit**: As of May 23, 2025, the radiation pine import profit was - 50 yuan/m³, a week - on - week decrease of 11 yuan/m³; the spruce import profit was - 116 yuan/m³, a week - on - week increase of 9 yuan/m³ [9]. - **Main Spot Prices**: On May 19, 2025, the price of 3.9 medium (3.8A) logs at Rizhao Port was 750 yuan/m³, a day - on - day decrease of 10 yuan/m³ and a year - on - year decrease of 8.5%; the price of 4 medium (3.8A) logs at Taicang Port was 780 yuan/m³, with no day - on - day change and a year - on - year decrease of 3.7%; the price of 5.9 medium (5.8A) logs at Rizhao Port was 770 yuan/m³, a day - on - day decrease of 10 yuan/m³ and a year - on - year decrease of 8.3%; the price of 6 medium (5.8A) logs at Taicang Port was 790 yuan/m³, with no day - on - day change and a year - on - year decrease of 4.8% [9].