1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The price of log green environmental protection products has been weak recently, with funds withdrawing. There is no strong driving force currently, and the long - short situation is relatively balanced. The price mainly revolves around the delivery cost. The 09 contract price is moderately undervalued, while the 11 contract cannot be valued at present. The 09 - 11 spread showed a reverse spread today, which is hard to explain. The inventory is at a low level, and the deliverable goods for the 09 contract are not very abundant. There is some transfer and resale pressure for the 07 contract deliverable goods in Chongqing, but the quantity is limited [3]. - As of August 11, no warehouse receipts have been issued, but they will definitely come out, just a matter of time. In the strategy, it is recommended to go long on the lg2509 contract on dips and conduct a timely positive spread operation on the 09 - 11 contracts. The price has strong support around 820, and it is approaching the peak season in September [3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Log Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for logs is 820 - 860, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 16.28% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 67.4% [2]. Log Hedging Strategy - **Inventory Management**: When the log import volume is high and the inventory is at a high level, to prevent inventory losses, enterprises can short the lg2509 log futures according to their inventory situation to lock in profits and make up for production costs, with a hedging ratio of 25% and a recommended entry range of 850 - 875 [2]. - **Procurement Management**: When the regular procurement inventory is low and the enterprise wants to purchase according to order conditions, to prevent the increase in procurement costs due to rising log prices, it can buy the lg2509 log futures at present to lock in procurement costs in advance, with a hedging ratio of 25% and a recommended entry range of 810 - 820 [2]. Spot and Basis - On August 12, 2025, the spot prices of different specifications of logs in ports such as Rizhao and Taicang are provided, along with data on spot price changes, spot length - adjusted conversions,主力合约 prices, delivery premiums and discounts, basis, and adjusted basis. The calculation formula for the adjusted basis is: Adjusted basis = Spot price after length adjustment (108%) - Main contract price ± Premium or discount [6][8][9]. Log Data Overview | Category | Indicator | Update Date | Value | MoM | YoY | Frequency | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Supply | Radiation pine import volume | 2025 - 06 - 30 | 161 | - 8 | 35.3% | Monthly | 10,000 m³ | | | Port inventory (China) | 2025 - 08 - 08 | 308 | - 9 | - 7.0% | Weekly | 10,000 m³ | | Inventory | Port inventory (Shandong) | 2025 - 08 - 08 | 1,926,000 | - 24,000 | 8.2% | Weekly | m³ | | | Port inventory (Jiangsu) | 2025 - 08 - 08 | 927,867 | - 32,133 | 2.9% | Weekly | m³ | | | Log port daily average outbound volume | 2025 - 08 - 08 | 6.42 | 0 | 35.7% | Weekly | 10,000 m³ | | Demand | Daily average outbound volume (Shandong) | 2025 - 08 - 08 | 3.64 | 0.07 | 61.8% | Weekly | 10,000 m³ | | | Daily average outbound volume (Jiangsu) | 2025 - 08 - 08 | 2.26 | - 0.06 | 29.9% | Weekly | 10,000 m³ | | Profit | Radiation pine import profit | 2025 - 08 - 15 | - 88 | - 1 | - | Weekly | Yuan/m³ | | | Spruce import profit | 2025 - 08 - 15 | - 89 | - 5 | - | Weekly | Yuan/m³ | | | 3.9 medium (3.8A) Rizhao Port | 2025 - 08 - 12 | 750 | 0 | - 5.1% | Daily | Yuan/m³ | | Main Spot | 4 medium (3.8A) Taicang Port | 2025 - 08 - 12 | 780 | 0 | - 3.7% | Daily | Yuan/m³ | | | 5.9 medium (5.8A) Rizhao Port | 2025 - 08 - 12 | 790 | 0 | - 2.5% | Daily | Yuan/m³ | | | 6 medium (5.8A) Taicang Port | 2025 - 08 - 12 | 800 | 0 | - 4.8% | Daily | Yuan/m³ | | Outer - disk Quotation | CFR | 2025 - 08 - 15 | 116 | 0 | - 1.7% | Weekly | US dollars/JASm³ | [10] Market Analysis - **Likely Positive Factors**: Due to continuous import losses, traders have the intention to jointly support prices; the import cost continues to rise; the overall sentiment of commodities has warmed up; and there is an impact from funds [8]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: The peak season may not be prosperous, and the foreign shipment volume continues to increase [8].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The current price of logs is within a reasonable valuation range. Although the price fluctuates around the warehouse - receipt cost, from a trading perspective, the upward risk - return ratio is better than the downward one [3]. - The data of the 07 contract's delivery situation provides important references for future delivery distribution, including the quantity of delivery items, the proportion of the lowest - cost warehouse receipts, and the approximate range of the average warehouse - receipt cost [3]. 3. Summary by Directory Log Price Forecast and Hedging Strategy - The monthly price range forecast for logs is 820 - 860, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 16.28% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 67.4% [2]. - For inventory management, when log imports are high and inventory is at a high level, it is recommended to short log futures (lg2509) with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 850 - 875 to prevent inventory losses [2]. - For procurement management, when the regular procurement inventory is low, it is recommended to buy log futures (lg2509) with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 810 - 820 to lock in procurement costs [2]. Core Contradiction - The 09 contract is three weeks away from delivery. The 07 contract had a total of 1281 hands delivered, with 63% by truck - board delivery (20% in Lanshan, 55% in Taicang, 24% in Chongqing) and 37% by warehouse - receipt delivery (82% in Lanshan, 18% in Taicang, 0% in Chongqing) [3]. - The spot price and the far - end CFR quote have increased, indicating a rise in delivery costs [3]. 利多 and 利空 Factors - **Likely Positive Factors**: Importers are willing to support prices due to continuous import losses, import costs are rising, the overall sentiment of commodities is improving, and there is an impact from capital [6]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: The peak season is not prosperous, and the shipping volume from foreign suppliers is continuously increasing [6]. Spot and Basis - The report provides detailed spot prices, price changes, and basis data for different specifications of logs at various ports on August 8, 2025, and calculates the converted basis [4][7]. Log Data Overview - **Supply**: The radiation - pine import volume in June 2025 was 1.61 million m³, a decrease of 80,000 m³ from the previous period but a 35.3% increase year - on - year [8]. - **Inventory**: As of August 1, 2025, the total port inventory in China was 3.17 million m³, unchanged from the previous period but a 4.5% decrease year - on - year. The port inventory in Shandong was 1.95 million m³, an increase of 20,000 m³ from the previous period and a 10.5% increase year - on - year. The port inventory in Jiangsu was 0.96 million m³, a decrease of 56,400 m³ from the previous period but an 11.6% increase year - on - year [8]. - **Demand**: As of August 1, 2025, the average daily outbound volume of logs at ports was 64,200 m³, an increase of 100 m³ from the previous period and a 33.2% increase year - on - year. The average daily outbound volume in Shandong was 35,700 m³, an increase of 1,800 m³ from the previous period and a 55.9% increase year - on - year. The average daily outbound volume in Jiangsu was 23,200 m³, a decrease of 1,400 m³ from the previous period but a 19.0% increase year - on - year [8]. - **Profit**: As of August 8, 2025, the import profit of radiation pine was - 96 yuan/m³, a decrease of 12 yuan/m³ from the previous period. The import profit of spruce was - 87 yuan/m³, an increase of 19 yuan/m³ from the previous period [8]. - **Outer - Market Quote**: The CFR quote on August 8, 2025, was 116 US dollars/JASm³, an increase of 2 US dollars from the previous period but a 1.7% decrease year - on - year [8].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market situation of logs has a new balance, being both offensive and defensive [5]. - The price of lg2509 has increased, and the delivery product is 6 - meter medium A at that time, with its price rising due to the increase in import cost [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Log Price and Volatility - The predicted monthly price range of logs is 820 - 860, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 16.28% and a historical percentile of 67.4% over 3 years [2]. Log Hedging Strategies - **Inventory Management**: When log imports are high and inventory is at a high level, to prevent inventory losses, enterprises can short lg2509 futures with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 850 - 875 [2]. - **Procurement Management**: When the regular procurement inventory is low, to prevent rising log prices from increasing procurement costs, enterprises can buy lg2509 futures with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 810 - 820 [2]. Core Contradictions - The market had no obvious driving force, but a large positive line changed the situation [3]. Price - related Analysis - The price of 6 - meter medium A at that time is related to the import cost, which has increased. The current cheap spot has hedging profits for the 07 contract, not the 09 contract. The cheap spot can be delivered to the 09 contract, but the additional cost is high [4]. Factors Affecting Prices - **Positive Factors**: Traders have a willingness to jointly support prices due to continuous import losses, the import cost continues to rise, and the overall sentiment of commodities has improved [6]. - **Negative Factors**: The outflow of delivery products from the 07 contract suppresses the spot price, and the foreign shipment volume continues to increase [9]. Log Data Overview - **Supply**: The radiation pine import volume in May 2025 was 169 million m³, a month - on - month increase of 4 million m³ and a year - on - year decrease of 2.3% [11]. - **Inventory**: As of July 11, 2025, the port inventory in China was 322 million m³, a week - on - week decrease of 1 million m³ and a year - on - year decrease of 3.0%. The port inventory in Shandong was 1,894,000 m³, a week - on - week decrease of 32,000 m³ and a year - on - year increase of 7.4%. The port inventory in Jiangsu was 1,115,000 m³, a week - on - week increase of 21,089 m³ and a year - on - year increase of 29.6% [11]. - **Demand**: As of July 11, 2025, the average daily outbound volume of logs at ports was 5.88 million m³, a week - on - week decrease of 0.81 million m³ and a year - on - year increase of 22.0%. The average daily outbound volume in Shandong was 3.53 million m³, a week - on - week decrease of 0.37 million m³ and a year - on - year increase of 54.2%. The average daily outbound volume in Jiangsu was 1.85 million m³, a week - on - week decrease of 0.3 million m³ and a year - on - year decrease of 5.1% [11]. - **Profit**: As of July 18, 2025, the radiation pine import profit was - 82 yuan/m³, and the spruce import profit was - 42 yuan/m³, a week - on - week decrease of 3 yuan/m³ [11].