南华原木产业风险管理日报 2025年8月12日 宋霁鹏（投资咨询证号：Z0016598 ） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 原木价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原木 | 820-860 | 16.28% | 67.4% | 现货与基差 source： 南华研究 原木套保策略表 | 行为导 | 情景分析 | 现货敞 | 策略推荐 | 套保工 | 买卖方 | 套保比例 | 建议入场 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 向 | | 口 | | 具 | 向 | （%） | 区间 | | 库存管 理 | 原木进口量偏高库存高位，担心价格 下跌 | 多 | 为了防止存货叠加损失，可以根据企业的库存情况，做空原木期货来锁定利润， 弥补企业的生产成本 | lg2509 卖出 | | 25% | 850-875 | | 采购管 | 采购常备库存偏低，希望根据订单情 | 空 | 为了防止原木价格上涨而抬升采 ...

南华原木产业风险管理日报 2025年8月8日 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原木 | 820-860 | 16.28% | 67.4% | source： 南华研究 原木套保策略表 | 行为导 | 情景分析 | 现货敞 | 策略推荐 | 套保工 | 买卖方 | 套保比例 | 建议入场 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 向 | | 口 | | 具 | 向 | （%） | 区间 | | 库存管 理 | 原木进口量偏高库存高位，担心价格 下跌 | 多 | 为了防止存货叠加损失，可以根据企业的库存情况，做空原木期货来锁定利润， 弥补企业的生产成本 | lg2509 卖出 | | 25% | 850-875 | | 采购管 | 采购常备库存偏低，希望根据订单情 | 空 | 为了防止原木价格上涨而抬升采购成本，可以在目前阶段买入原木期货，在盘面 | lg2509 买入 | | 25% | 810-820 | | 理 | 况进行 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market situation of logs has a new balance, being both offensive and defensive [5]. - The price of lg2509 has increased, and the delivery product is 6 - meter medium A at that time, with its price rising due to the increase in import cost [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Log Price and Volatility - The predicted monthly price range of logs is 820 - 860, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 16.28% and a historical percentile of 67.4% over 3 years [2]. Log Hedging Strategies - **Inventory Management**: When log imports are high and inventory is at a high level, to prevent inventory losses, enterprises can short lg2509 futures with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 850 - 875 [2]. - **Procurement Management**: When the regular procurement inventory is low, to prevent rising log prices from increasing procurement costs, enterprises can buy lg2509 futures with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 810 - 820 [2]. Core Contradictions - The market had no obvious driving force, but a large positive line changed the situation [3]. Price - related Analysis - The price of 6 - meter medium A at that time is related to the import cost, which has increased. The current cheap spot has hedging profits for the 07 contract, not the 09 contract. The cheap spot can be delivered to the 09 contract, but the additional cost is high [4]. Factors Affecting Prices - **Positive Factors**: Traders have a willingness to jointly support prices due to continuous import losses, the import cost continues to rise, and the overall sentiment of commodities has improved [6]. - **Negative Factors**: The outflow of delivery products from the 07 contract suppresses the spot price, and the foreign shipment volume continues to increase [9]. Log Data Overview - **Supply**: The radiation pine import volume in May 2025 was 169 million m³, a month - on - month increase of 4 million m³ and a year - on - year decrease of 2.3% [11]. - **Inventory**: As of July 11, 2025, the port inventory in China was 322 million m³, a week - on - week decrease of 1 million m³ and a year - on - year decrease of 3.0%. The port inventory in Shandong was 1,894,000 m³, a week - on - week decrease of 32,000 m³ and a year - on - year increase of 7.4%. The port inventory in Jiangsu was 1,115,000 m³, a week - on - week increase of 21,089 m³ and a year - on - year increase of 29.6% [11]. - **Demand**: As of July 11, 2025, the average daily outbound volume of logs at ports was 5.88 million m³, a week - on - week decrease of 0.81 million m³ and a year - on - year increase of 22.0%. The average daily outbound volume in Shandong was 3.53 million m³, a week - on - week decrease of 0.37 million m³ and a year - on - year increase of 54.2%. The average daily outbound volume in Jiangsu was 1.85 million m³, a week - on - week decrease of 0.3 million m³ and a year - on - year decrease of 5.1% [11]. - **Profit**: As of July 18, 2025, the radiation pine import profit was - 82 yuan/m³, and the spruce import profit was - 42 yuan/m³, a week - on - week decrease of 3 yuan/m³ [11].