Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that domestic fuel prices are currently in a state of stagnation, with a potential for an increase in the near future due to rising international crude oil prices [1][3][4] - As of July 19, the domestic oil price adjustment mechanism is in effect, with the next price change scheduled for July 29, 2025, marking the 15th adjustment of the year [1][3] - In July, there have been two price adjustments so far, with one increase of 235 CNY/ton and one decrease of 130 CNY/ton, resulting in a net increase of 105 CNY/ton for gasoline and 100 CNY/ton for diesel [3][4] Group 2 - Recent data shows that WTI crude oil prices increased by 1.75% to 67.54 USD/barrel, while Brent crude rose by 1.46% to 69.52 USD/barrel, indicating a bullish trend in the oil market [3] - The current price drop for gasoline and diesel is limited to 25 CNY/ton, which is a reduction of 20 CNY/ton compared to the previous day, suggesting a potential reversal in price trends if crude prices continue to rise [3][4] - The market is experiencing mixed signals due to factors such as a decrease in U.S. EIA crude oil inventories and ongoing geopolitical tensions affecting supply, which may lead to uncertainty in future price movements [3][4]

Core Insights - The upcoming adjustment of gasoline and diesel prices in China is expected to result in a decrease of approximately 120-135 CNY per ton, translating to a reduction of 0.09-0.13 CNY per liter for 92/95 octane gasoline [3][4] - The current average price of crude oil is 68.12 USD per barrel, with a notable increase in prices during the current pricing cycle, driven by concerns over tight oil supply and seasonal demand [1][3] - Despite the recent price increases, there are doubts about the sustainability of the upward trend in oil prices due to potential economic uncertainties and increased production from OPEC+ [1][3] Oil Price Adjustment Cycle - The current pricing cycle for gasoline and diesel started on July 2 and will conclude on July 15, with the average crude oil price influencing the domestic price adjustments [3] - As of July 11, the WTI crude oil price rose to 68.45 USD per barrel, while Brent crude reached 70.36 USD per barrel, indicating a strong upward trend in oil prices during this cycle [1][3] - The anticipated price drop for gasoline and diesel is based on the average crude oil price remaining around 68.27 USD per barrel, with adjustments expected to narrow the decrease to 130-135 CNY per ton [3] Market Dynamics - The market is currently experiencing a strong upward trend in oil prices, supported by seasonal demand and concerns over supply tightness, despite a recent unexpected increase in U.S. crude oil inventories [1][3] - The International Energy Agency's report on global energy supply being tighter than expected has further fueled the bullish sentiment in the oil market [1] - However, there are concerns regarding the potential for a decline in oil prices due to the upcoming implementation of tariffs and reduced energy demand from major Asian economies [1][3]