热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：能源研发中心 套利追踪： 1） 价差：12月19日，SC 夜盘1-3月差-0.8元/桶，换算成-0.11美元/桶；Brent 1-3月差为0.67美元/桶；WTI 1-3 月差为0.27美元/桶。SC夜盘-Brent主力合约为1.22美元/桶；SC夜盘-WTI主力合约为4.91美元/桶。 2）套利：①估值：12月19日凌晨2：30，Brent 2602盘面价为59.99美元/桶，SC 2603盘面价为431.9元/桶，测 算SC 2603盘面理论价为451.0元/桶，当天盘面估值偏离程度-4.23%。从7天移动平均估值值中，以【-5%，0】 为正常区间来看，估值区于常态下沿。②利润：测算SC2603盘面到岸利润-18.76元/桶，折合-2.67美元/桶。③ 价差：SC2603-Brent2602盘面差为1.03美元/桶，理论差3.69美元/桶，盘面价差低于理论价差。（注：上周 Brent首行为2602；SC首行为2602；其中M代表时下12月） 3）总结： 月差来看，在美国推进俄乌和平的努力窗口下，本周周三SC原油率先刷新年内低点之后，布 ...

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Views - Recently, crude oil has been fluctuating within a narrow range, with frequent switches between bullish and bearish sentiments and no clear trend. On Wednesday, crude oil rebounded slightly, mainly driven by the refined product side. The trends of gasoline and diesel in Europe and the US have diverged, with diesel surging to a new stage high, possibly related to the approaching Russian sanctions date, but more of an emotional premium. Subsequently, the seasonal increase in the operating load in Europe and the US will ease the supply pressure. Market concerns cannot be ignored: macroeconomic negatives have been temporarily ignored, the overnight panic index has risen, and European and American stock markets have fallen, while crude oil has not priced in this risk. After the subsequent positive factors fade, a corrective market may occur. Geopolitical risks in regions such as Russia-Ukraine, South America, and Africa provide potential bullish support, but the market has shown fatigue in reacting to these risks, and actual events are needed to have a pulling effect. Going forward, attention should be focused on the sustainability of the gasoline-diesel divergence and the impact of macro funds' risk aversion sentiment on crude oil [1]. Summary of Related Catalogs Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Trade within a range. The resistance level for Brent above is $65, and the support level below is $60. - Arbitrage: Hold off for now. - Options: Hold off for now [5]. Logic Analysis - The rally was driven by sentiment in the refined product side, with divergence and weak follow-up as key features. The core driving force behind the overnight rally in crude oil came from the refined product side, with a significant divergence in the trends of gasoline and diesel in Europe and the US. Diesel soared to a new stage high due to the approaching Russian sanctions date (Russia mainly exports diesel and Europe mainly consumes diesel), providing emotional support for crude oil. However, this driving force is more of a short-term emotional premium - the seasonal increase in the operating load in Europe and the US will ease the supply pressure of gasoline and diesel. At the same time, the follow-up increase in the crude oil market has significantly weakened, failing to form a strong follow-up pattern [8]. - Deteriorating macro sentiment hides potential risks, which may trigger a corrective market later. At the macro level, negative factors have been temporarily ignored by the market but have planted the seeds of risk. The overnight panic index rose significantly and lifted from a low level, European and American stock markets fell across the board, and the US stock market hit a new stage low. The risk aversion sentiment in the financial market is gradually fermenting. Currently, the crude oil market has not priced in this macro risk. If the positive support from geopolitical and refined product sides fades later, the market may reprice the fundamentals and macro logic, leading to a significant corrective market [9]. - Geopolitical risks provide emotional support, but it's difficult to have a substantial pulling effect without real events. There are numerous geopolitical risk points, including the high-intensity conflict between Russia and Ukraine, US pressure on Venezuela and Mexico, and the turmoil in Sudan (interruption of oil exports) and Libya in Africa, which constitute long-term potential bullish factors for the crude oil market. However, the crude oil market has shown fatigue in reacting to geopolitical news. These risks can only provide short-term emotional support and are difficult to have a substantial pulling effect. Only when geopolitical events actually occur and materialize will they have a corresponding impact on oil prices according to the degree of risk [10]. Related News - For the week ending November 14 in the US, API crude oil inventories increased by 4.448 million barrels, compared with a previous increase of 1.3 million barrels. Cushing crude oil inventories decreased by 790,000 barrels, compared with a previous decrease of 43,000 barrels. Gasoline inventories increased by 1.546 million barrels, compared with a previous decrease of 1.385 million barrels. Refined oil inventories increased by 577,000 barrels, compared with a previous increase of 944,000 barrels [11]. - Sources said that due to a drone attack by Ukraine on Friday, the crude oil shipments at Russia's Novorossiysk port were delayed by 2 to 3 days compared with the original plan [11]. - According to foreign media reports, the US Treasury Department claimed in an unusual statement that its recent efforts to weaken Russia have been successful. The statement showed the market impact of measures targeting Russian oil giants Rosneft and Lukoil. The office responsible for overseeing US sanctions at the Treasury Department said that "driven by the effectiveness of US sanctions, the demand for Russian oil is plummeting." The press release stated that various grades of Russian oil "are trading far below all other international prices," with some at multi-year lows. The statement - a November 17 memo from the economic analysis department of the Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) sanctions - said that nearly a dozen major Indian buyers indicated that they plan to suspend purchases of Russian oil for December delivery. A Treasury spokesperson said in an email that the Treasury is prepared to take further action to end the conflict if necessary [11][12].