Core Viewpoint - The performance of WTI crude oil in 2025 remains subdued despite ongoing geopolitical tensions, with the impacts of conflicts such as the Russia-Ukraine war and the Israel-Iran conflict diminishing over time [1][6][7]. Group 1: Geopolitical Events and Oil Prices - The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict has had a weak impact on the oil market by 2025, with the market's response to the conflict significantly reduced [1][6]. - The Israel-Iran conflict, which escalated in June 2025, saw WTI crude oil reach a peak of $78.4 but closed at $64.97, indicating a substantial decline from its peak [1][7]. - The recent capture of Venezuelan President Maduro, who was taken by U.S. forces, was expected to disrupt oil exports due to Venezuela's significant oil reserves, yet the market's reaction was muted [1][7]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Trends - Following the Maduro event, WTI crude oil prices initially rose from an opening price of $57.47 to a high of $58.51, but quickly fell back, with prices hitting a low of $55.76, marking a new weekly low [1][7]. - The lack of sustained market reaction to the Maduro event is attributed to the rapid execution of U.S. actions, which left little room for market speculation and investment [2][8]. - Since reaching a high of $130 in 2022, WTI crude oil has been in a downward trend, although the pace of decline has slowed in recent years [5][10]. Group 3: Support Levels and Future Outlook - The price range of $54.86 to $55.9 is identified as a potential support zone, with $54.86 being a significant low point from October 2025 [5][10]. - If WTI prices rebound in the coming days, it could confirm a double bottom structure; otherwise, the downward trend may continue under high inventory pressures [5][10].

Group 1: Market Overview - Gold prices experienced fluctuations on December 9, with early morning resistance around 4199, dropping to a low of approximately 4170 before stabilizing and rising to a peak of around 4221 during the late session, ultimately closing with a small gain [1] Group 2: Fundamental Analysis - The Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting is set to conclude on December 10, with the market pricing in an 87.4% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut, which is expected to support gold prices as lower rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold [2] - There is a potential risk of a "hawkish cut," where Fed Chair Powell may emphasize inflation risks, setting a higher bar for future easing due to the resilience of the U.S. economy [2][4] - Key focus points include the Fed's dot plot, Powell's press conference, and the wording of the policy statement, which could impact the dollar and gold prices [2] Group 3: Leadership Uncertainty - Trump is conducting final interviews for the next Fed Chair, with Kevin Hassett being the most likely candidate, which could introduce policy uncertainty if his close relationship with the president leads to aggressive rate cuts [3][4] Group 4: Technical Analysis - On the daily chart, gold prices have been oscillating between 4163 and 4265, indicating a lack of a dominant trend, with the market showing signs of indecision [5] - The four-hour chart indicates a "double top" formation at 4265 and 4260, reinforcing resistance, while a "double bottom" structure at 4163 and 4170 provides strong support, suggesting a range-bound market [7]

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing intensified long and short positions, with prices touching key support levels, raising questions about the potential formation of a double bottom structure or the continuation of a downward trend [1] Group 1 - The current market dynamics indicate a significant battle between bullish and bearish sentiments in the gold sector [1] - Key support levels have been reached, which could influence future price movements and market strategies [1] - The potential for a double bottom formation is being closely monitored, as it could signal a reversal in the current trend [1]