Core Viewpoint - Silver prices have experienced significant volatility, with a recent surge followed by a sharp decline, influenced by factors such as Federal Reserve interest rate decisions and geopolitical tensions [1][7]. Group 1: Price Movements - Silver rose from $72.8 to $82.7 over two days, then fell to a low of $75.16 [1][6]. - The price of silver increased from a low of $48.6 on November 21 to a high of $82.7, marking a cumulative increase of over 70% [7]. - A typical double top structure has formed, with historical highs at $83.92 and $82.73, indicating potential price resistance [5][10]. Group 2: Influencing Factors - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts have a mild positive effect on silver prices, with expectations of three rate cuts in 2025, each by 25 basis points, which may not significantly stimulate buying sentiment [7]. - Geopolitical tensions, particularly in Venezuela, have eased, reducing their impact on silver price movements [7]. - The recent price surge is attributed to a "short squeeze," where many short positions were forced to cover, leading to a rapid increase in prices [2][7]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The recent decline in silver prices reflects profit-taking by short-term traders after the extreme price movements [2][7]. - A support level is identified at $70.04; if breached, it may signal the end of the current bullish trend, while a rebound could indicate a continuation of the upward momentum [5][10].

Group 1: Market Overview - Gold prices experienced fluctuations on December 9, with early morning resistance around 4199, dropping to a low of approximately 4170 before stabilizing and rising to a peak of around 4221 during the late session, ultimately closing with a small gain [1] Group 2: Fundamental Analysis - The Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting is set to conclude on December 10, with the market pricing in an 87.4% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut, which is expected to support gold prices as lower rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold [2] - There is a potential risk of a "hawkish cut," where Fed Chair Powell may emphasize inflation risks, setting a higher bar for future easing due to the resilience of the U.S. economy [2][4] - Key focus points include the Fed's dot plot, Powell's press conference, and the wording of the policy statement, which could impact the dollar and gold prices [2] Group 3: Leadership Uncertainty - Trump is conducting final interviews for the next Fed Chair, with Kevin Hassett being the most likely candidate, which could introduce policy uncertainty if his close relationship with the president leads to aggressive rate cuts [3][4] Group 4: Technical Analysis - On the daily chart, gold prices have been oscillating between 4163 and 4265, indicating a lack of a dominant trend, with the market showing signs of indecision [5] - The four-hour chart indicates a "double top" formation at 4265 and 4260, reinforcing resistance, while a "double bottom" structure at 4163 and 4170 provides strong support, suggesting a range-bound market [7]

Core Viewpoint - The expectation of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December has significantly boosted international gold prices, with a notable increase observed in recent trading sessions [1][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve and Interest Rate Expectations - Federal Reserve Governor Milan has expressed strong support for a 50 basis point rate cut in December, suggesting that a reduction of at least 25 basis points is necessary if economic data does not show significant changes [1]. - The anticipation of a 50 basis point cut is fueled by the current government shutdown and weak labor market performance, leading to increased buying pressure for gold [3]. Group 2: Labor Market and Economic Indicators - The U.S. labor market remains weak, with the ADP data showing an increase of only 42,000 jobs in October, which is still low compared to the previous year, and three months of negative job growth this year [3]. - The ongoing government shutdown has delayed the release of the non-farm payroll reports for September and October, further complicating the economic outlook [3]. Group 3: Technical Analysis of Gold Prices - The long-term trend for international gold remains bullish, with recent price movements indicating a potential continuation of this upward trend [5]. - The recent price correction has reached a sufficient adjustment level, and the rebound since October 28 appears healthy, suggesting that the upward movement may persist for some time [5]. - However, there is a caution regarding the potential formation of a "double top" structure if a second upward movement occurs, with significant resistance expected near the previous high of $4,381 [5].