昨日12月9日（星期二），黄金早盘震荡，中午在4199附近受阻开始下跌，到欧盘前最低跌至4170附近，随后企稳开始上涨，欧盘最高上涨至4213附近受阻 回落，到美盘跌至4189附近，美盘两次下探4190/4189区域企稳上涨，凌晨最高上涨至4221附近，尾盘回落震荡，日线收出一根小阳线。 一、基本面 1、美联储决议：市场焦点与关键预期 会议时间与降息概率：12月10日结束为期两天的FOMC会议，市场押注本周降息25个基点概率达87.4%，降息预期吸引逢低买盘支撑金价（降息降低黄金持 有机会成本）。 政策风险提示：存在"鹰派降息"可能——鲍威尔或在声明中强调通胀风险，为后续宽松设更高门槛，原因是美国经济韧性（劳动力市场稳健）；"美联储传 声筒"尼克・蒂米劳斯指出，鲍威尔大概率先降息25个基点，再通过会后声明提高未来放松政策门槛，类似2019年"三连降息"操作。 关键关注要点：美联储点阵图（9月点阵图显示2025年底政策利率3.6%、2026年底3.4%，若本次下调将利空美元、利好黄金）、鲍威尔新闻发布会、政策声 明措辞。 2、美联储主席人选与不确定性 候选人人选：特朗普本周对美联储主席候选人进行最后一轮面试，白 ...

Core Viewpoint - The expectation of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December has significantly boosted international gold prices, with a notable increase observed in recent trading sessions [1][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve and Interest Rate Expectations - Federal Reserve Governor Milan has expressed strong support for a 50 basis point rate cut in December, suggesting that a reduction of at least 25 basis points is necessary if economic data does not show significant changes [1]. - The anticipation of a 50 basis point cut is fueled by the current government shutdown and weak labor market performance, leading to increased buying pressure for gold [3]. Group 2: Labor Market and Economic Indicators - The U.S. labor market remains weak, with the ADP data showing an increase of only 42,000 jobs in October, which is still low compared to the previous year, and three months of negative job growth this year [3]. - The ongoing government shutdown has delayed the release of the non-farm payroll reports for September and October, further complicating the economic outlook [3]. Group 3: Technical Analysis of Gold Prices - The long-term trend for international gold remains bullish, with recent price movements indicating a potential continuation of this upward trend [5]. - The recent price correction has reached a sufficient adjustment level, and the rebound since October 28 appears healthy, suggesting that the upward movement may persist for some time [5]. - However, there is a caution regarding the potential formation of a "double top" structure if a second upward movement occurs, with significant resistance expected near the previous high of $4,381 [5].