Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the reports. 2. Report Core Views - **Steel**: Due to stricter production restrictions in Tangshan, the steel price center has shifted upwards. Although there are increased fundamental contradictions and price pressure in the building materials sector under inventory pressure, the plate demand remains resilient, and the price is relatively strong. With the increasing probability of the Fed's interest - rate cut and expectations of domestic policy intensification, as well as the stimulation of anti - involution policies and pre - holiday stockpiling expectations, steel prices are showing strength [1]. - **Iron Ore**: Before the holidays, the sentiment is positive, and iron ore prices are oscillating upwards. The global shipment of iron ore has increased significantly this week, and the demand is high with a substantial rebound in hot metal production. Considering the pre - holiday stockpiling demand, iron ore consumption has strong resilience [3]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Coke production is restricted, and the prices of coking coal and coke have risen significantly. The second - round price cut of coke has been fully implemented, and there are still expectations of further price cuts. For coking coal, some over - producing mines in Inner Mongolia have been shut down. With the release of downstream pre - holiday stockpiling demand and expectations of Fed's interest - rate cut and domestic policies, it is expected that coking coal and coke will be oscillating strongly in the short term [5][6]. - **Steam Coal**: Due to pre - holiday stockpiling by downstream users, the coal price continues to rise. The supply in the production areas is recovering slowly, and the daily consumption of power coal has decreased, but the non - power coal demand remains strong. In the short term, the price will oscillate, and in the long - term, the supply is still in a loose pattern [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, steel futures prices oscillated upwards. The overall spot trading was average, with better low - price trading and weaker trading after price increases. Most regional basis shrank, and there was basis trading in some areas. The national building materials trading volume was 11050 tons. Due to poor air quality in Tangshan, some steel mills took blast furnace stoking measures [1]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Under the current inventory pressure, the fundamental contradictions in building materials have increased, and the price is under pressure. The plate demand remains resilient, and the fundamentals are stable with a relatively strong price. Attention should be paid to the improvement in demand. With the increasing probability of the Fed's interest - rate cut, there are stronger expectations of domestic policy intensification, and the steel price is showing strength under the stimulation of anti - involution policies and pre - holiday stockpiling expectations [1]. - **Strategy**: The unilateral strategy is to oscillate, and there are no cross - period, cross - variety, basis trading, or option strategies [2]. Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the iron ore futures prices oscillated upwards. In the spot market, the prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties in Tangshan ports were strong. Traders' quoting enthusiasm was average, and steel mills' purchases were mainly for rigid demand. The total transaction volume of iron ore in the national main ports was 1.394 million tons, a 45.21% increase from the previous day. The total transaction volume of forward - looking spot was 1.23 million tons (10 transactions), a 31.86% decrease from the previous day (with a mine transaction volume of 36000 tons). Tangshan required some steel mills to limit sintering production, which will affect iron ore consumption in the short term [3]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: In terms of supply, the global shipment of iron ore has increased significantly this week. In terms of demand, hot metal production has rebounded substantially, and the demand for iron ore is high. Considering the pre - holiday stockpiling demand, iron ore consumption has strong resilience. Attention should be paid to the impact of the floating cargo volume on port arrivals and the steel mills' pre - holiday stockpiling rhythm [3]. - **Strategy**: The unilateral strategy is to oscillate, and there are no cross - period, cross - variety, basis trading, or option strategies [4]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the main futures contracts of coking coal and coke rose significantly. In the spot market, the second - round price cut of coke was fully implemented, with a cumulative decrease of 100 - 110 yuan/ton, and there are still expectations of further price cuts. For coking coal, some over - producing mines in Inner Mongolia have been shut down and punished. The port market sentiment is positive, with rising upstream quotes, but the overall downstream demand is weak. The import coal trading activity is high. Tangshan's meeting required local coking enterprises to extend the coking time by 30%, which will suppress coke consumption in the short term [5][6]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: For coke, with the continuous increase in finished - product prices, steel mills' profits have expanded, and production enthusiasm has improved, maintaining rigid demand. For coking coal, the downstream pre - holiday stockpiling demand has been released, and coking coal inventory has been continuously reduced. With expectations of Fed's interest - rate cut and domestic policies, it is expected that coking coal and coke will be oscillating strongly in the short term [6]. - **Strategy**: The strategy for coking coal and coke is to oscillate strongly. There are no cross - period, cross - variety, basis trading, or option strategies [6]. Steam Coal - **Market Analysis**: In the production areas, the coal prices in the main production areas continue to rise, and the demand from terminal customers such as chemical and cement industries is good. Some downstream customers still have pre - holiday stockpiling plans. In the port market, the sentiment is positive, with rising upstream quotes and a small amount of downstream inquiry demand. Some traders are more reluctant to sell due to shipping cost support and tight resources, and the quotes of some high - quality coal varieties have increased. In terms of imports, the decline in domestic coal prices has narrowed, the price of imported high - calorie coal is basically stable, and the price of low - calorie coal has rebounded, resulting in a narrowing of the price difference between domestic and imported coal [7]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: The supply in the production areas is recovering slowly, and the daily consumption of power coal has decreased, but the non - power coal demand remains strong. In the short term, the price will oscillate, and in the long - term, the supply is still in a loose pattern. Attention should be paid to the consumption and stockpiling of non - power coal [7].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - All products (steel, iron ore, coking coal and coke, thermal coal) are rated as "Oscillating Strong" [2][4][7] Core Views - The steel market is influenced by increasing macro - expectations, with steel prices oscillating strongly. The iron ore market has a significant increase in shipments, and it follows the sector. The coking coal and coke market has positive sentiment and prices have risen significantly. The thermal coal market has stable chemical terminal procurement, and the origin coal prices are oscillating strongly [1][3][5][8] Summary by Product Steel - **Market Analysis**: Steel futures prices oscillated and rose yesterday. Spot trading was average, with better low - price trading mainly for terminals and pre - oversold restocking. National building material trading volume was 11760 tons, and steel inventories increased. Building materials face increased fundamental contradictions under inventory pressure, while plate demand remains resilient [1] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: With the increasing probability of the Fed's interest rate cut, there are stronger expectations for domestic policy stimulus. Anti - involution policies and double - festival restocking expectations stimulate steel prices [1] - **Strategy**: Unilateral trading is expected to be oscillating strongly [2] Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: Iron ore futures prices weakened slightly yesterday. In the spot market, prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties in Tangshan ports fluctuated slightly. Global iron ore shipments increased significantly to 3573000 tons, with notable growth in Brazil and non - mainstream regions. The arrival volume at 45 ports was 2362000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 86000 tons. National main port iron ore trading volume decreased by 13.90% to 96000 tons, while forward spot trading volume increased by 179.41% to 180500 tons [3] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Iron ore shipments recovered this week, arrivals decreased, and iron - water production increased significantly. Demand remains high, and inventory is at a medium level. Considering double - festival restocking demand, iron ore consumption is resilient [3] - **Strategy**: Unilateral trading is expected to be oscillating strongly [4] Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Analysis**: Futures prices of coking coal and coke rose significantly yesterday. In the spot market, the second round of coke price cuts was implemented, and there are still expectations for further cuts. Downstream coke enterprises mainly maintain on - demand procurement. The price of imported Mongolian coal (Meng 5) is around 940 - 960 yuan/ton [5][6] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Policy expectations for counter - cyclical adjustment are strong. Fundamentally, production is restricted by over - production inspection policies, and consumption benefits from high iron - water production and pre - festival restocking. Inventory is decreasing, which may trigger price rebounds [6] - **Strategy**: Both coking coal and coke are expected to be oscillating strongly in unilateral trading [7] Thermal Coal - **Market Analysis**: In the origin, coal prices are rising steadily. Some mines have gradually restored supply after maintenance, and chemical terminal procurement is stable. In the port market, prices rebounded after stopping falling. Inventory did not increase significantly, and some traders were reluctant to sell. Imported high - calorie coal prices were stable, and low - calorie coal prices rebounded, narrowing the price gap with domestic coal [8] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Supply in the production area is recovering slowly. Although daily power coal consumption has decreased, non - power coal demand remains strong. In the short - term, prices will oscillate, and in the long - term, the supply is still abundant [8] - **Strategy**: Not provided in the report