供应端，全球发运量有所减少。澳洲、巴西发运量同步下降，其他国家发运量小幅增加。澳洲发运量 1950.6万吨，环比减少102万吨，其中澳洲发往中国的量1694.5万吨，环比减少7.6万吨。巴西发运量 864.1万吨，环比减少48.8万吨。分矿山来看，力拓发运量环比减少10.5万吨至734.4万吨，BHP发运量环 比减少5.6万吨至576.2万吨，FMG发运量环比减少66.9万吨至307.8万吨，VALE发运量环比减少67.6万吨 至614.6万吨。中国47港口到港量2790.2万吨，环比减少137.8万吨。 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 钢材：矛盾不足驱动有限，钢价震荡趋势难改 螺纹方面，本周全国螺纹产量环比回升2.71万吨至184.39万吨，同比减少31.91万吨；社库环比回落18.81 万吨至294.19万吨，同比增加15.98万吨；厂库环比回升0.52万吨至140.06万吨，同比增加18.53万吨；螺 纹表需环比回落5.96万吨至202.68万吨，同比减少16.9万吨。螺纹产量继续回升，库存降幅有所收窄， 表需回落，供需数据偏中性。据海关数据，1-11月我国棒线材出口1 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current market trends and economic indicators, highlighting the mixed signals in various sectors, including precious metals, stock indices, and crude oil, while emphasizing the potential for policy support and market recovery in the near future [1][2][3][4]. Precious Metals - Silver prices have surged to a historical high, driven by lower-than-expected U.S. CPI data, which stands at 2.7% year-on-year, below the anticipated 3.1% [2][17]. - The overall downtrend in CPI provides room for interest rate cuts, supporting the long-term upward trend in precious metals due to factors like weakened dollar credit and central bank gold purchases [2][17]. Stock Indices - U.S. stock markets were closed, but previous trading saw an increase in stock indices, particularly in the defense and military sectors, with a total market turnover of 1.94 trillion yuan [3][10]. - The financing balance increased by 10.127 billion yuan, indicating a positive outlook for A-shares, supported by policy backing, capital influx, and industrial empowerment [3][10]. Crude Oil - Crude oil prices saw a slight increase of 0.38%, with Saudi Arabia's average daily crude oil exports reaching a two-and-a-half-year high of 7.1 million barrels in October, up from 6.46 million barrels in September [4][13]. - Despite geopolitical tensions and potential sanctions on Russia, the overall trend for crude oil remains downward [4][13]. Economic Indicators - The U.S. non-farm payroll data showed a mixed picture, with an addition of 64,000 jobs, surpassing the expected 50,000, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.6% [2][17]. - The People's Bank of China is expected to maintain a moderately loose monetary policy to support economic stability and reasonable price recovery [7][12]. Industry News - The Shenzhen Stock Exchange issued a notice to Sunflower regarding its asset acquisition plan, indicating ongoing corporate activities and market dynamics [8]. Shipping Index - The European shipping index showed fluctuations, with expectations for price stability as shipping companies prepare for increased demand ahead of the Lunar New Year [30].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current economic environment, highlighting the Chinese central bank's continued implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy and the recent adjustments in the Beijing housing market to support home purchases by non-local families and families with multiple children [1][8]. Group 1: Financial Markets - The U.S. stock indices rose, with the defense and military sector leading gains, while the agriculture sector lagged behind. The market turnover reached 1.90 trillion yuan, and the financing balance increased by 14.859 billion yuan to 25,145.96 billion yuan [2][12]. - The A-share market is expected to maintain a long-term bullish trend supported by policy backing, capital influx, and industrial empowerment, with the upcoming Federal Reserve rate cut likely to enhance global capital flow and risk appetite [2][12]. Group 2: Oil Market - Saudi Arabia's average daily crude oil exports reached 7.1 million barrels in October, the highest level in two and a half years, up from 6.46 million barrels in September [3][15]. - The overall trend in the oil market remains downward, influenced by geopolitical tensions and potential sanctions on Russia's energy sector [3][15]. Group 3: Agricultural Products - Palm oil prices are expected to improve due to better export data from Malaysia, while soybean oil faces downward pressure from high production expectations [4][30]. - The domestic soybean market is experiencing a supply surplus, with auction prices declining, leading to a bearish outlook for soybean meal prices [29][30]. Group 4: Metals - Gold and silver prices are stabilizing, supported by lower-than-expected U.S. inflation data, which may provide room for further interest rate cuts [20]. - Copper prices are under pressure due to tight supply conditions and fluctuating demand from various sectors, including automotive and construction [21]. Group 5: Shipping Index - The European shipping index has shown a slight decline, with expectations for price stabilization as shipping companies adjust their pricing strategies ahead of the upcoming Chinese New Year [33].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the recent performance of precious metals and energy commodities, noting that gold, silver, and copper have reached historical highs, while oil prices have also increased due to geopolitical tensions and supply dynamics [1][2][3]. Precious Metals - International gold and silver prices have reached historical highs, with gold rising over 2% and silver increasing by more than 3% [1][2]. - The U.S. November CPI was reported at 2.7%, lower than the expected 3.1%, and the core CPI at 2.6%, below the anticipated 3%, which raises questions about inflation but provides room for potential interest rate cuts [2][20]. - The U.S. non-farm payroll data showed an increase of 64,000 jobs, better than the expected 50,000, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, supporting the expectation of continued monetary easing by the Federal Reserve, which is bullish for precious metals [2][20]. Energy Commodities - Oil prices have seen a significant increase, with the SC night market rising by 2.01%. Saudi Arabia's average daily crude oil exports reached 7.1 million barrels in October, the highest in two and a half years, up from 6.46 million barrels in September [3][14]. - Geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding potential sanctions on Russia's energy sector, are influencing oil prices, although the overall trend remains uncertain [3][14]. Agricultural Products - The palm oil market is experiencing upward pressure due to Malaysia's reduction of export tax rates, although inventory levels remain high, and a significant improvement in the supply-demand balance is not expected until December [29]. - The soybean market is under pressure from slow export sales and strong production expectations in South America, leading to a bearish outlook for soybean prices [28]. Financial Markets - The U.S. stock indices have shown an upward trend, with significant market activity and a financing balance increase, indicating a potential long-term bullish trend supported by favorable policies and liquidity [11]. - The bond market is experiencing a general decline, with the 10-year government bond yield rising to 1.845%, reflecting a mixed economic outlook and expectations of future monetary policy adjustments [12][13]. Shipping Index - The European shipping index has shown a strong upward movement, with a reported increase of 8.77% in the EC contract, reflecting positive market sentiment and expectations for price stability in the near future [32][33].

Group 1: Core Insights - The global silver market is experiencing a historic surge, with spot silver prices recently breaking through $65 and $66 per ounce, approaching $67 per ounce, marking a year-to-date increase of approximately 130%, which is double the increase in gold futures [1][2] - Factors contributing to this surge include supply-demand imbalance, Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, and increased capital inflow [1][2] - The Federal Reserve has room for further rate cuts of 50 to 100 basis points, as indicated by Governor Waller, due to a weakening job market and controlled inflation [1][5] Group 2: Key Commodities - **Silver**: The price of silver has reached new historical highs, supported by a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve and a $40 billion reserve management purchase, which improves market liquidity and boosts risk appetite [2][16] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The market for coking coal remains stable, with slight increases in construction and hot-rolled steel production. However, there is a downward trend in iron production, and the market is expected to stabilize due to seasonal demand [2][21] - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass production is in a phase of inventory digestion, with a decrease in glass inventory and a slight increase in soda ash inventory. The market is closely monitoring potential changes in industry operations [3][15] Group 3: Financial Market Trends - The U.S. stock indices experienced significant declines, with the S&P 500 dropping by 1.16%. However, the A-share market is expected to maintain a long-term bullish trend supported by policy and capital flow [8] - The bond market saw a general increase, with the 10-year treasury yield falling to 1.8425%, indicating a continued loose monetary policy environment [9][10] Group 4: International and Domestic News - Internationally, the Federal Reserve's policy direction indicates a likelihood of maintaining interest rates in January, with a 77% probability of no change and a 21% chance of a 25 basis point cut [5] - Domestically, the Ministry of Finance reported a slight increase in public budget revenue, with tax revenue growing by 1.8% year-on-year [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, for each product, the strategies suggest a "sideways" movement: - Steel: Sideways [1] - Iron ore: Sideways [2][3] - Coking coal and coke: Sideways [3][4] - Thermal coal: The report does not provide a clear strategy but indicates a weak price trend [4] 2. Core View of the Report - The overall market of black building materials is affected by multiple factors such as environmental protection production restrictions, seasonal production cuts, and changes in supply - demand relationships. Each product shows different supply - demand characteristics and price trends, and most products are in a state of price fluctuations. 3. Summary by Product Steel - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the main contract of rebar futures closed at 3,081 yuan/ton, and the main contract of hot - rolled coil closed at 3,246 yuan/ton. The spot trading volume of steel was average. The low - price transactions in the morning were good, but there were few transactions after price increases, and the basis shrank. The national building materials trading volume was 99,186 [1]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: For building materials, there is no significant production pressure currently, and inventory is continuously decreasing. For plates, high inventory continues to suppress prices, but demand resilience remains. In the short term, the supply side is affected by environmental protection and seasonal production cuts, and raw material support may weaken [1]. - **Strategy**: Sideways for single - side trading; no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [1] Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, iron ore futures prices fluctuated. The iron ore 2605 contract closed at 761 yuan, up 0.92%. Spot prices rose slightly, but trading volume was low. Traders' enthusiasm for quoting was average, and steel mills maintained on - demand restocking, with purchase prices mostly following the market [2]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: The demand side of iron ore is currently weak. The steel product market has weak supply and demand, and steel mills' production enthusiasm is not high under the state of small profits, resulting in a continuous decline in hot metal production. Although the demand is weak, the iron ore price remains high due to the tight supply of some varieties at ports and weak liquidity, temporarily covering up the supply - demand contradiction. In the future, as steel mills start seasonal production cuts and are affected by environmental protection production restrictions, hot metal production is expected to further decline. If the port resource liquidity improves, combined with the fundamental supply - demand contradiction, the iron ore price will face significant downward pressure [2]. - **Strategy**: Sideways for single - side trading; no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [2][3] Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, coking coal and coke futures continued the previous pattern of sideways and slightly stronger, and continued to rebound slightly. For imported Mongolian coal, the customs clearance volume remained high, port inventory continued to accumulate, prices fluctuated with the market, and downstream market procurement was cautious, with limited overall trading activity [3]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Coking coal currently shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. Coal mines are mainly operating with low supply, and supply has slightly shrunk. Downstream coke has the expectation of further price cuts, and enterprises' enthusiasm for restocking is average, mostly for on - demand procurement. Coke also faces pressure on both supply and demand. Supply has slightly declined, and on the demand side, some steel mills are undergoing maintenance and production cuts, and the winter storage restocking plan has not yet been launched, with a relatively light trading atmosphere in the market [4]. - **Strategy**: Sideways for both coking coal and coke in single - side trading; no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [3][4] Thermal Coal - **Market Analysis**: In the producing areas, the coal prices in the main producing areas continued to run weakly. Downstream demand was mainly for on - demand hauling, and speculative demand was weak. Most coal mines sold at reduced prices, but sales did not improve, and mine inventory accumulated. At ports, affected by the continuous weakness in the producing areas, port quotes continued to decline. Some traders were extremely pessimistic about the future market, and the phenomenon of selling at a loss intensified. Currently, port inventory is high, the number of anchored ships is small, and the turnover rate has not increased. Traders at ports generally have a pessimistic attitude, believing that the current decline is large and there is still an expectation of further decline in the future. In terms of imports, affected by domestic coal prices, the tender price of imported coal continued to decline, and the market trading atmosphere was cold [4]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Recently, coal prices have continued to run weakly, with downstream consumption falling short of expectations and relatively high inventory. Some coal mines have completed their annual tasks, so it is difficult to have significant improvement in supply in the later period. In the medium and long term, attention should be paid to changes in the supply pattern, as well as coal consumption and restocking [5]. - **Strategy**: The report does not provide a clear trading strategy but mentions factors such as coal mine safety supervision dynamics, port inventory accumulation changes, daily consumption of thermal coal and chemical coal, and other unexpected accidents that need to be concerned [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market is currently in a weak and volatile state due to suppressed demand during the off - season. The prices of steel products, raw materials, and related futures contracts have generally declined. However, the fundamentals of finished steel are not under significant pressure, and the downward space for prices is limited. For different varieties: - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: They show production cuts and inventory reduction. The demand for rebar has declined significantly, while the demand for hot - rolled coil shows certain resilience. Rebar should continue to focus on the support around 3000 yuan/ton, and hot - rolled coil should focus on whether it can stabilize around 3200 yuan/ton [3]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply has increased, the demand has continued to decline, and port inventory has reached a new high. The price is under overall pressure, and the support below is temporarily around 730 - 750 yuan/ton [4]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The overall supply has increased slightly, and the downstream transactions have improved. The coking plant and port coking coal inventories have accumulated, suppressing prices. After the second round of coke price cuts, there is still an expectation of further cuts, but the downward space for the disk price is limited. Coking coal should focus on the support around 1000 yuan/ton [5]. Summary of Each Section According to the Table of Contents 01 Market Review - **Price Changes**: Raw material price drops have dragged down steel prices. Spot and futures prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil have generally declined, and the prices of imported iron ore and coke have also decreased. The basis of rebar has slightly increased [9]. - **Inventory Changes**: The five major steel products have continued to reduce inventory, with significant reduction in rebar social inventory and a slight decrease in factory inventory. The reduction in hot - rolled coil inventory has accelerated [9]. 02 Steel Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: Rebar production has decreased significantly, with both blast furnace and electric furnace production cuts. The national hot - rolled coil production has also decreased, and the blast furnace operating rate has decreased month - on - month, while the electric furnace operating rate has remained stable. The profits of rebar and hot - rolled coil have decreased month - on - month [12][17][22]. - **Demand**: The demand for rebar and hot - rolled coil has both declined slightly, with a more obvious decline in rebar demand [31]. - **Inventory**: Rebar has continued to reduce inventory, with factory and social inventories both falling. Hot - rolled coil has slightly reduced inventory, with factory inventory increasing and social inventory decreasing [36][40]. - **Downstream Market**: In the real estate market, the transaction volume of commercial housing and the land market have both increased month - on - month. In the automotive market, the production and sales in November have continued to grow both month - on - month and year - on - year [45][48]. 03 Iron Ore Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The arrival volume of iron ore at ports has increased significantly month - on - month, while the shipments from Australia and Brazil have decreased slightly [53]. - **Demand**: The daily production of hot metal has continued to decline, and the port ore handling volume has remained stable [59]. - **Inventory**: The iron ore port inventory has reached a new high, while the steel enterprise iron ore inventory has decreased [64]. 04 Coking Coal and Coke Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The operating rate of domestic coking mines has decreased slightly month - on - month, and the Mongolian coal customs clearance has remained at a relatively high level [71]. - **Demand**: The coking coal auction transaction rate has increased, but the daily production of hot metal has continued to decline, and the steel mill replenishment power is limited [76]. - **Inventory**: The port coking coal inventory has continued to increase, and the coking plant inventory has rebounded. The coke port inventory has continued to decline, and the coking plant inventory has rebounded [84][90]. - **Spot Price**: The second round of coke price cuts has been implemented, and the game between steel and coke enterprises continues [96]. 05 Spread Analysis - The basis of rebar and hot - rolled coil has both widened, and the 1 - 5 spreads of rebar and hot - rolled coil have both slightly widened. The coil - to - rebar spread has fluctuated narrowly, and the 1 - 5 spread of coking coal has slightly widened [102][106].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report provides a table indicating the likelihood of a bullish or bearish outlook for various varieties, but it emphasizes that these are only possibilities, not definite judgments [5]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The social finance growth rate remains at a high level. The increase in RMB loans and social financing scale in the first 11 months of 2025 exceeded the full - year figure of the previous year. The growth rates of inclusive small and micro loans, medium - and long - term loans for the manufacturing industry, and technology loans continue to be higher than the overall loan growth rate [1]. - For precious metals, short - term fluctuations do not change the long - term upward trend. Factors such as the weakening of the US dollar's credit and central bank gold purchases provide solid support [2][18]. - The copper market is expected to shift to a supply - demand gap due to disruptions in ore supply. Attention should be paid to changes in the US dollar, copper smelting output, and downstream demand [2][19]. - The aluminum price has short - term weakening upward momentum, but a long - term optimistic outlook is still recommended, considering macro - level support and the situation of supply and demand [3][21]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1. Main News Concerns 3.1.1. International News - The Bank of Japan may maintain its commitment to continue raising interest rates next week, emphasizing that the subsequent pace of rate hikes will depend on the economy's response to each increase. The market has almost fully priced in the rate increase from 0.5% to 0.75% at the December 18 - 19 meeting [6]. 3.1.2. Domestic News - The Ministry of Finance will implement a more active fiscal policy next year to support the expansion of domestic demand, optimize supply, and promote high - quality economic development [7]. 3.1.3. Industry News - Beijing Guanghe Qiancheng Technology Co., Ltd., jointly invested by several leading silicon material enterprises, was established, regarded as an important step in the anti - involution of the photovoltaic industry. The planned annual silicon material production capacity of relevant enterprises in the future will not exceed 1.5 million tons [7]. 3.2. Daily Returns of Overseas Markets - The report provides the closing prices, price changes, and percentage changes of various overseas market varieties on December 11 and 12, 2025, including the S&P 500, FTSE China A50 Futures, ICE Brent Crude Oil Continuous, etc. [8]. 3.3. Morning Comments on Major Varieties 3.3.1. Financial Products - **Stock Index**: The long - term slow - bull pattern of the A - share market is expected to be consolidated. The Fed's interest rate cut in December and positive policy signals are expected to boost market risk appetite [9]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Loose policies are expected to increase, providing support for short - term treasury bond futures prices. The market funds are relatively loose [10][11]. 3.3.2. Energy and Chemical Products - **Crude Oil**: The overall downward trend is hard to change. The IEA has adjusted the forecast of world oil demand, and OPEC+ production has increased [12]. - **Methanol**: It may fluctuate weakly in the short term. The start - up rate of domestic coal - to - olefin plants has decreased, and the coastal methanol inventory has declined [13]. - **Rubber**: It is expected to maintain a wide - range shock in the short term. Overseas supply pressure exists, while domestic supply elasticity is weakening, and demand supports the stable start of all - steel tires [14]. - **Polyolefins**: Pay attention to whether the cost represented by crude oil can stop falling and the digestion rhythm of upstream supply and demand. The downstream demand is steadily releasing [15]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Both domestic glass and soda ash are in the process of inventory digestion. The inventory of glass is decreasing faster, while soda ash still needs time for supply - demand digestion [16][17]. 3.3.3. Metals - **Precious Metals**: Short - term fluctuations do not change the long - term upward trend. Interest rate cuts and balance - sheet expansion by the Fed support prices [18]. - **Copper**: The price dropped by more than 2% over the weekend. The concentrate supply is tight, and the global copper supply - demand is expected to turn into a gap [19]. - **Zinc**: The price dropped by more than 1% over the weekend. The supply of zinc concentrate is temporarily tight, and attention should be paid to the overall market sentiment of non - ferrous metals [20]. - **Aluminum**: The short - term upward momentum is weakening, but the long - term outlook is optimistic. The macro - level supports the price, and the supply and demand situation needs further attention [21]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Be cautious about the upward height in the short term. The weekly social inventory is decreasing, but potential supply increments have not been released [22][23]. 3.3.4. Black Products - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The short - term trend is expected to be volatile. The rigid demand is weakening, but strong policy expectations in December provide upward momentum [24]. - **Steel**: The steel price has the power to rebound in the short term, but the upward space is limited. The medium - term outlook is weak [25]. 3.3.5. Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: The price is expected to be weak. Brazilian soybean sowing progress is slightly behind, US soybean exports are slow, and domestic long - term supply is sufficient [26]. - **Edible Oils**: Palm oil has significant inventory pressure, and rapeseed oil is expected to be strongly volatile in the short term due to positive news [27]. - **Sugar**: The Zhengzhou sugar is expected to maintain a low - level shock in the short term. International factors and domestic supply and cost factors need to be considered [28][29]. - **Cotton**: The price trend is strong, supported by factors such as fast sales progress, possible reduction in planting area, and improved Sino - US relations [30]. 3.3.6. Shipping Index - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The 02 contract may face adjustment pressure, and the 04 contract is expected to have further downward space due to supply surplus and potential Red Sea route resumption [31].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment ratings in the given content. Group 2: Report Core Views - The steel market's trading volume has weakened, and steel prices are fluctuating downward. The fundamentals of building materials are improving, while those of plates are not improving enough. The arrival of the off - season for building materials demand should be monitored [1]. - Iron ore prices have slightly declined due to a drop in hot metal production. The supply - demand contradiction is accumulating, and the release of inventory in the future may put pressure on prices. Attention should be paid to the progress of iron ore negotiations [3]. - A new round of price cuts for coking coal and coke has begun, and their prices are fluctuating downward. The bearish sentiment for coke is strong, and the price of coking coal is still under pressure [4][5]. - The price of thermal coal at ports and in production areas has been continuously falling. In the long - term, the supply remains loose, and attention should be paid to non - power coal consumption and restocking [6]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Analysis**: The main contract of rebar futures closed at 3069 yuan/ton, and the main contract of hot - rolled coil futures closed at 3238 yuan/ton. The production, inventory, and demand of the five major steel products have all decreased. The spot trading of steel was weak, and prices in mainstream areas followed the decline of the futures market [1]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: The supply - demand fundamentals of building materials are improving, with both consumption and production declining, and inventory pressure easing. The fundamentals of plates are not improving enough, and high inventory is suppressing prices, requiring appropriate production cuts. The impact of off - season demand on the fundamentals should be monitored [1]. - **Strategy**: The strategy for steel is a unilateral oscillation, with no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options [2]. Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: Iron ore futures prices fluctuated weakly. The prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties at Tangshan ports were weak. The trading volume at major ports was 99.1 million tons, a 38.60% increase from the previous period. The average daily hot metal production of 247 steel mills was 229.20 million tons, a decrease of 3.10 million tons from the previous period [3]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Iron ore shipments increased slightly this period, and the average daily hot metal production continued to decline. The supply - demand contradiction is still accumulating, and inventory is rising. If external factors are removed, inventory release may put pressure on prices. Attention should be paid to the progress of iron ore negotiations [3]. - **Strategy**: The strategy for iron ore is a unilateral oscillation, with no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options [3]. Coking Coal and Coke (Double - Coking) - **Market Analysis**: The main contracts of coking coal and coke futures fluctuated downward. Some steel mills initiated a new round of price cuts for coke, with a reduction of 50 - 55 yuan/ton. The price of coking coal in the main production areas continued to decline, and the price of imported Mongolian coal also decreased [4]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: The bearish sentiment for coke is strong, the support for raw material demand is weak, and the demand for coke is weakening due to the decline in hot metal production. Attention should be paid to the price of raw coal and changes in hot metal production. The sentiment for coking coal is still weak, downstream demand is limited, and coal prices are still under pressure [4][5]. - **Strategy**: The strategy for coking coal and coke is an oscillation, with no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options [5]. Thermal Coal - **Market Analysis**: The price of coal in the main production areas continued to decline, and there was a wait - and - see sentiment in the market. The supply in the production areas was slightly tightened due to the maintenance of some coal mines. The price at ports continued to fall, demand was weak, and trading was cold. The price of imported coal also fell rapidly and maintained a cost - performance advantage [6]. - **Demand and Logic**: Pessimistic sentiment has spread in the market recently, and coal prices are fluctuating. In the long - term, the supply remains loose, and attention should be paid to non - power coal consumption and restocking [6]. - **Strategy**: There is no strategy provided for thermal coal [7].

Group 1: International News - The U.S. delegation will visit Moscow next week, and President Putin reiterated that Russia generally agrees to use the U.S. list for resolving the Ukraine issue as a basis for future negotiations. He stated that if Ukrainian armed forces withdraw from currently controlled areas, Russia will cease military actions; otherwise, military means will be employed to achieve objectives [1][6]. Group 2: Domestic News - The State Council, led by Premier Li Qiang, held a meeting to discuss promoting high-quality development and reviewed the provincial-level coordination of basic medical insurance. The meeting emphasized the need to enhance grassroots medical service capabilities [7]. Group 3: Industry News - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) is promoting the expansion of infrastructure REITs to include urban renewal facilities, hotels, sports venues, and commercial office facilities. The NDRC also highlighted the need to balance speed and bubble risks in the development of embodied intelligence industries, particularly humanoid robots [8]. Group 4: Financial Market Overview - The U.S. stock indices rose, with the previous trading day seeing a high followed by a pullback. The light industry manufacturing sector led the gains, while the comprehensive sector lagged. The market turnover was 1.72 trillion yuan, and the financing balance increased by 5.977 billion yuan to 24,522.65 billion yuan [2][11]. Group 5: Commodity Insights - In the coal market, the double焦 (coking coal and coke) futures showed weak performance, with total positions remaining stable. Steel production slightly increased, but overall inventory continued to decline, primarily driven by rebar. The profitability of steel mills is under pressure, leading to expectations of reduced iron production [2][21]. Group 6: Oil Market Analysis - The SC night market for crude oil rose by 1.46%. There are mixed sentiments regarding the potential restart of peace talks in Ukraine. The International Energy Agency reported that the daily oil supply from nine OPEC countries was 23.77 million barrels in October, a decrease of 180,000 barrels from September [3][14].