Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report - The synthetic rubber market will operate in a short - term oscillation due to the intensification of the contradiction between fundamentals and macro - sentiment. The fundamental pressure has increased significantly, but macro - expectations provide support. The market presents a pattern of increasing supply and demand, with the supply growth rate higher than the demand growth rate, leading to an increase in inventory pressure for cis - butadiene rubber. The high processing profit on the cis - butadiene rubber disk is unsustainable, and the cost side of cis - butadiene rubber is also under pressure. However, there are expectations of a preventive interest rate cut by the Fed and long - term policy support from China's anti - involution policy, which support the market. Overall, the market will oscillate widely within the fundamental valuation range [2][3]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Synthetic Rubber Fundamental Data - **Futures Market (10 - contract)**: The closing price of the cis - butadiene rubber main contract decreased by 30 yuan/ton to 11,675 yuan/ton. The trading volume increased by 23,286 lots to 74,764 lots, the open interest decreased by 402 lots to 64,216 lots, and the trading volume increased by 137,965 ten - thousand yuan to 436,360 ten - thousand yuan [1]. - **Spread Data**: The basis of Shandong cis - butadiene rubber against the futures main contract increased by 30 to 25, and the monthly spread (BR10 - BR11) decreased by 5 to 35 [1]. - **Spot Market**: The price of North China cis - butadiene rubber (private) increased by 50 yuan/ton to 11,550 yuan/ton, the price of East China cis - butadiene rubber (private) remained unchanged at 11,650 yuan/ton, and the price of South China cis - butadiene rubber (private) remained unchanged at 11,650 yuan/ton. The market price of Shandong cis - butadiene rubber (delivery product) remained unchanged at 11,700 yuan/ton. The price of Qilu styrene - butadiene rubber (Model 1502) increased by 100 yuan/ton to 12,300 yuan/ton, and the price of Qilu styrene - butadiene rubber (Model 1712) increased by 100 yuan/ton to 11,300 yuan/ton. The mainstream price of butadiene in Jiangsu increased by 50 yuan/ton to 9,300 yuan/ton, and the mainstream price in Shandong increased by 100 yuan/ton to 9,500 yuan/ton [1]. - **Fundamentals**: The operating rate of cis - butadiene rubber decreased by 1.22% to 68.7762%, the theoretical full cost of cis - butadiene rubber remained unchanged at 12,028 yuan/ton, and the profit of cis - butadiene rubber remained unchanged at - 128 yuan/ton [1]. b. Industry News - On September 15, the domestic butadiene market oscillated slightly. Downstream buyers maintained sporadic rigid demand, and poor transactions pressured suppliers' prices. Affected by the trend of downstream products in the afternoon, some offers were slightly pushed up, but downstream follow - up was less than expected, and the market showed some oscillations. The delivery price in the central Shandong region was around 9350 - 9450 yuan/ton, and the ex - tank self - pick - up price in East China was around 9000 - 9100 yuan/ton [2]. c. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of synthetic rubber is 0, indicating a neutral view, with the trend intensity ranging from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [3].

Report Investment Rating - The trend strength of synthetic rubber is 0, indicating a neutral stance [3] Core View - The fundamentals and macro sentiment of synthetic rubber are in conflict, with short - term oscillatory movement. Fundamental pressure has significantly increased, while macro expectations provide support. The market will oscillate widely within the fundamental valuation range [3] Summary by Directory 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the butadiene rubber (BR) 10 - contract on the previous trading day was 11,705 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan from the day before. The trading volume was 51,478 lots, down 1,477 lots; the open interest was 64,618 lots, up 43,559 lots; and the trading volume was 298.395 million yuan, down 81.31 million yuan [1] - **Spread Data**: The basis of Shandong butadiene rubber - futures main contract was - 5 yuan, down 90 yuan; the monthly spread of BR10 - BR11 was 40 yuan, down 5 yuan [1] - **Spot Market**: The prices of butadiene rubber in North China, East China, and South China were 11,500 yuan/ton, 11,650 yuan/ton, and 11,650 yuan/ton respectively. The price of butadiene rubber in Shandong was 11,700 yuan/ton. The prices of styrene - butadiene rubber (SBR) of Qilu (model 1502 and 1712) remained unchanged at 12,200 yuan/ton and 11,200 yuan/ton respectively. The mainstream prices of butadiene in Jiangsu and Shandong were 9,250 yuan/ton and 9,400 yuan/ton respectively [1] - **Fundamentals**: The operating rate of butadiene rubber was 69.9965%, down 0.35%. The theoretical full cost of butadiene rubber was 12,028 yuan/ton, unchanged; the profit was - 128 yuan/ton, unchanged [1] 2. Industry News - On September 15, the domestic butadiene market showed a slight oscillatory adjustment. The downstream buying was mainly for sporadic rigid demand, and the poor trading pressured the supplier prices. In the afternoon, driven by the trend of the main downstream products, some offer intentions were slightly pushed up, but the downstream follow - up was less than expected, and the market showed some oscillations [2] - The fundamentals of butadiene rubber and butadiene are under increasing pressure, mainly due to high supply. The supply growth rate is higher than the demand growth rate in the pattern of both supply and demand increasing. The inventory pressure of butadiene rubber has increased, and the high processing profit on the butadiene rubber futures market is unsustainable. Butadiene is also expected to face high - supply pressure in the future, and the cost side of butadiene rubber is also under pressure [3] - There is an expectation of preventive interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in the market. The "anti - involution" and supply - side optimization expectations in China have a certain support for the overall valuation of commodities. After the commodity valuation enters a reasonable range, investors' risk appetite for short - selling may be significantly reduced [3]