Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report - The synthetic rubber market will operate in a short - term oscillation due to the intensification of the contradiction between fundamentals and macro - sentiment. The fundamental pressure has increased significantly, but macro - expectations provide support. The market presents a pattern of increasing supply and demand, with the supply growth rate higher than the demand growth rate, leading to an increase in inventory pressure for cis - butadiene rubber. The high processing profit on the cis - butadiene rubber disk is unsustainable, and the cost side of cis - butadiene rubber is also under pressure. However, there are expectations of a preventive interest rate cut by the Fed and long - term policy support from China's anti - involution policy, which support the market. Overall, the market will oscillate widely within the fundamental valuation range [2][3]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Synthetic Rubber Fundamental Data - **Futures Market (10 - contract)**: The closing price of the cis - butadiene rubber main contract decreased by 30 yuan/ton to 11,675 yuan/ton. The trading volume increased by 23,286 lots to 74,764 lots, the open interest decreased by 402 lots to 64,216 lots, and the trading volume increased by 137,965 ten - thousand yuan to 436,360 ten - thousand yuan [1]. - **Spread Data**: The basis of Shandong cis - butadiene rubber against the futures main contract increased by 30 to 25, and the monthly spread (BR10 - BR11) decreased by 5 to 35 [1]. - **Spot Market**: The price of North China cis - butadiene rubber (private) increased by 50 yuan/ton to 11,550 yuan/ton, the price of East China cis - butadiene rubber (private) remained unchanged at 11,650 yuan/ton, and the price of South China cis - butadiene rubber (private) remained unchanged at 11,650 yuan/ton. The market price of Shandong cis - butadiene rubber (delivery product) remained unchanged at 11,700 yuan/ton. The price of Qilu styrene - butadiene rubber (Model 1502) increased by 100 yuan/ton to 12,300 yuan/ton, and the price of Qilu styrene - butadiene rubber (Model 1712) increased by 100 yuan/ton to 11,300 yuan/ton. The mainstream price of butadiene in Jiangsu increased by 50 yuan/ton to 9,300 yuan/ton, and the mainstream price in Shandong increased by 100 yuan/ton to 9,500 yuan/ton [1]. - **Fundamentals**: The operating rate of cis - butadiene rubber decreased by 1.22% to 68.7762%, the theoretical full cost of cis - butadiene rubber remained unchanged at 12,028 yuan/ton, and the profit of cis - butadiene rubber remained unchanged at - 128 yuan/ton [1]. b. Industry News - On September 15, the domestic butadiene market oscillated slightly. Downstream buyers maintained sporadic rigid demand, and poor transactions pressured suppliers' prices. Affected by the trend of downstream products in the afternoon, some offers were slightly pushed up, but downstream follow - up was less than expected, and the market showed some oscillations. The delivery price in the central Shandong region was around 9350 - 9450 yuan/ton, and the ex - tank self - pick - up price in East China was around 9000 - 9100 yuan/ton [2]. c. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of synthetic rubber is 0, indicating a neutral view, with the trend intensity ranging from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [3].

2025 年 09 月 16 日 品 研 究 合成橡胶：短期宏观情绪偏暖，震荡运行 杨鈜汉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021541 yanghonghan025588@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 合成橡胶基本面数据 | 项目 | | 项目名称 | | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | | 日盘收盘价 | （元/吨） | 11,705 | 11,615 | 90 | | | 顺丁橡胶主力 （10合约） | 成交量 | （手） | 51,478 | 52,955 | -1477 | | | | 持仓量 | （手） | 64,618 | 21,059 | 43559 | | | | 成交额 | （万元） | 298,395 | 306,525 | -8131 | | 价差数据 | 基差 | 山东顺丁-期货主力 | | -5 | 85 | -90 | | | 月差 | BR10-BR11 | | 40 | 45 | -5 | | 现货市场 | 顺丁价格 | 华北顺丁 | （民营） | 11,500 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Rubber: Bullish with a slight upward trend [2][4] - Synthetic Rubber: Stable oscillation with support [2][10] - Asphalt: Weak performance, focus on Shandong's shipments [2][14] - LLDPE: Medium - term oscillatory market [2][29] - PP: Short - term oscillation, medium - term downward pressure [2][33] - Caustic Soda: Short - term wide - range oscillation [2][37] - Pulp: Oscillatory operation [2][43] - Glass: Stable prices for raw sheets [2][50] - Methanol: Oscillatory operation [2][53] - Urea: Short - term fluctuations, long - term downward pressure [2][59] - Styrene: Bearish in the medium term [2][62] - Soda Ash: Little change in the spot market [2][64] - LPG: Short - term weak oscillation due to OPEC+ production increase expectations [2][68] - Propylene: Short - term weak operation as spot supply - demand support weakens [2][68] - PVC: Downward pressure in the trend [2][80] - Fuel Oil: Weakness persists, potential for further decline [2][83] - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: Continuing to decline, narrowing of the high - low sulfur spread in the overseas spot market [2][83] - Container Freight Index (European Line): Weak oscillation [2][85] - Staple Fiber: Short - term rebound [2][98] - Bottle Chip: Short - term rebound [2][98] - Offset Printing Paper: Low - level oscillation, lack of upward momentum [2][102] - Pure Benzene: Weak oscillation [2][104] Core Views - The natural rubber market was supported by raw materials last week, with prices rising due to supply disruptions from weather and inventory reduction, but the increase was limited by the weakening preference in the commodity market. The import volume in August is expected to increase slightly [8]. - The synthetic rubber market has increasing fundamental pressure from high supply, but there are expectations of a Fed preventive rate cut and policy support, so the futures price oscillates with support [12]. - The asphalt market is in a weak state. The weekly output has increased, the factory inventory in some areas has accumulated, and the social inventory has decreased in some areas [14][28]. - The LLDPE market has a slightly increasing price. The demand is improving due to the upcoming peak season for the agricultural film industry, and the supply pressure may be relieved in the East China region in late September. The market is expected to oscillate in the medium term [29][30]. - The PP market has short - term demand improvement, but the cost is weak. The supply pressure will increase in the future, and the long - term trend is under pressure [33][34]. - The caustic soda market lacks driving forces, with the main obstacles to price increases coming from exports and the alumina industry. The market is in a wide - range oscillation [37][38]. - The pulp market is oscillating. The trading atmosphere is light, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to be affected by the international market and downstream demand [43][46]. - The glass market has stable raw sheet prices, with regional differences in market transactions and limited changes in downstream orders [50][51]. - The methanol market is oscillating. The port inventory is increasing, and the price is affected by supply and demand and macro - economic sentiment [53][56]. - The urea market has short - term fluctuations but a long - term downward trend. The short - term price may rebound due to increased exports, but the long - term demand is weak [59][60][61]. - The styrene market is bearish in the medium term. The cost center has shifted down due to OPEC's production increase, and the price may decline [62][63]. - The soda ash market has little change in the spot market, with stable supply and weak demand [64][66]. - The LPG market is in short - term weak oscillation due to OPEC+ production increase expectations, and the propylene market is also weak in the short term as supply - demand support weakens [68][73]. - The PVC market has high production and inventory, weak downstream demand, and increasing export policy uncertainties, resulting in downward pressure [80]. - The fuel oil market is weak, and the low - sulfur fuel oil is continuing to decline, with a narrowing of the high - low sulfur spread [83]. - The container freight index (European Line) is in weak oscillation. The freight rate is expected to decline in the short term, and the market is affected by supply and demand and geopolitical factors [85][93][95]. - The staple fiber and bottle chip markets are experiencing short - term rebounds, with different trends in futures and spot markets [98]. - The offset printing paper market is in low - level oscillation, with weak upward momentum due to slow demand from downstream printers [102][103]. - The pure benzene market is in weak oscillation, with changes in prices and inventories affected by factors such as crude oil prices [104]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Rubber - The rubber's main contract had price increases in both the day and night sessions, with increased trading volume and open interest. The inventory decreased, and the supply was affected by weather. The demand from tire companies was affected by factory maintenance [5][8][9] Synthetic Rubber - The futures price of synthetic rubber increased, with changes in trading volume, open interest, and basis. The inventory of high - cis polybutadiene rubber increased slightly, and the market was affected by supply, demand, and expectations [10][11][12] Asphalt - The asphalt futures prices declined, with changes in trading volume, open interest, and basis. The production increased, the factory inventory in some areas rose, and the social inventory in some areas decreased [14][28] LLDPE - The LLDPE futures price increased slightly, with stable spot prices. The demand is supported by the agricultural film industry, and the supply pressure may be relieved in late September [29][30] PP - The PP futures price increased, with a slight decline in spot prices. The short - term demand improved, but the cost was weak, and the supply pressure will increase [33][34] Caustic Soda - The caustic soda futures price is related to the spot price in Shandong. The market lacks driving forces, with obstacles from exports and the alumina industry [37][38] Pulp - The pulp's main contract had price changes, with decreased trading volume, open interest, and inventory. The trading atmosphere was light, and the demand was weak [43][46] Glass - The glass futures price increased, with stable or slightly adjusted spot prices. The market transactions had regional differences, and the downstream orders changed little [50][51] Methanol - The methanol futures price increased, with a decline in the port average price. The port inventory increased, and the price was affected by supply and demand and macro - economic sentiment [53][56] Urea - The urea futures price decreased slightly, with stable spot prices in most areas. The enterprise inventory increased slightly, and the short - term price may fluctuate, but the long - term trend is downward [59][60][61] Styrene - The styrene futures price increased, with a weakening market due to OPEC's production increase and a downward shift in the cost center [62][63] Soda Ash - The soda ash futures price increased, with little change in the spot market. The supply was high, and the demand was weak [64][66] LPG and Propylene - The LPG and propylene futures prices had small changes. The LPG market is affected by OPEC+ production increase expectations, and the propylene market's supply - demand support weakened [68][73] PVC - The PVC futures price is related to the spot price in East China. The market has high production and inventory, weak downstream demand, and increasing export policy uncertainties [80] Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil futures prices declined, with changes in trading volume, open interest, and spot prices. The market is weak, and the high - low sulfur spread is narrowing [83] Container Freight Index (European Line) - The container freight index (European Line) futures prices had increases. The freight rate is expected to decline, and the market is affected by supply, demand, and geopolitical factors [85][93][95] Staple Fiber and Bottle Chip - The staple fiber and bottle chip futures prices had different trends, with changes in trading volume, open interest, and spot prices. The short - term rebound is observed [98] Offset Printing Paper - The offset printing paper market has stable prices, with slow demand from downstream printers and a weak upward momentum [102][103] Pure Benzene - The pure benzene futures prices increased, with changes in prices and inventories affected by factors such as crude oil prices [104]