Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - On July 10, 2025, equity index futures rose while CGB futures fell; most commodities advanced, with metals and energy & chemicals leading the gains [2][9][11] - The top three gainers were poly - silicon, glass, and coking coal, while the top three decliners were rapeseed oil, eggs, and copper (BC) [9][10][11] - The report also provided analyses and outlooks for iron ore, ferrosilicon, and lithium carbonate [15][22][29] Summary According to the Directory 1. China Futures 1.1 Overview - On July 10, equity index futures rose, CGB futures fell, and most commodities advanced, with metals and energy & chemicals leading the gains [9][11] - Poly - silicon rose by 5.5% with open interest increasing by 1.5% month - on - month; glass climbed by 5.2% with open interest decreasing by 10.1% month - on - month; coking coal went up by 4.2% with open interest decreasing by 2.3% month - on - month [9][11] - Rapeseed oil dropped by 0.8% with open interest decreasing by 2.4% month - on - month; eggs fell by 0.7% with open interest decreasing by 7.5% month - on - month; copper (BC) declined by 0.5% with open interest decreasing by 1.8% month - on - month [10][11] 1.2 Daily Rise 1.2.1 Iron Ore - On July 10, iron ore increased by 3.7% to 763.5 yuan/ton. The demand is high, and fundamentals have no obvious contradiction. After the upward movement, the futures price reached an important resistance level, and the spot market is dominated by wait - and - see sentiment. Short - term price fluctuation is expected [15][17] - Overseas mines ended their end - of - quarter shipment rush this week, with shipments falling month - on - month. The arrival volume at 45 ports rebounded slightly but was lower than expected, and there may be a concentrated arrival in the next 1 - 2 weeks. Steel enterprises' profit rate has stabilized, and molten iron output remains at a high level year - on - year. Ports slightly destocked due to lower - than - expected arrival and high demand, and the overall supply - demand contradiction is not prominent [16][17] 1.2.2 Ferrosilicon - On July 10, ferrosilicon increased by 3.6% to 5576 yuan/ton. The current supply - demand relationship is relatively healthy, but there is a possibility of supply - demand gap filling in the future, increasing market destocking difficulty. The price upward driving force is insufficient, but due to industry losses and cost support, the futures market is expected to mainly fluctuate in the short term. Attention should be paid to electricity cost adjustment [22][24] - On the supply side, manufacturers' operating rate rebounded from a low level, and overall supply tends to increase. On the demand side, steel product output remains high, but there is an expectation of a slight decline in finished steel product output during the off - season. The support duration of steelmaking demand for ferrosilicon prices needs cautious consideration. Hebei Iron and Steel's July bidding started with a purchase volume of 2,700 tons, an increase of 500 tons month - on - month. Magnesium metal manufacturers have growing sentiment to support prices, but downstream acceptance of high - priced sources is still cautious [23][24] 1.3 Daily Drop 1.3.1 Lithium Carbonate - On July 10, lithium carbonate decreased by 0.4% to 64180 yuan/ton. Supply and demand remain in surplus, but short - term reduction in warehouse receipts supports the price, and the price is expected to fluctuate [29][31] - The market sentiment of "anti - involution" continues to ferment, and futures warehouse receipts are not high, so the price strengthened slightly in the short term. Weekly output decreased slightly month - on - month, domestic lithium ore output maintains growth, but imported lithium salts are expected to decline. From January to June, domestic cathode materials maintained growth. July is the traditional off - season, but demand production scheduling expectation is good, and leading enterprises also have signs of purchasing. Social inventory continues to accumulate, while warehouse receipt inventory has been continuously destocked recently. Policy changes are significant, with domestic anti - involution sentiment fermenting and the US "Big Beautiful Act" having a negative effect on demand [30][31] 2. China News 2.1 Macro News - The Ministry of Commerce has launched a special campaign to combat the smuggling and export of strategic minerals since May 2025 and reviews relevant export license applications in accordance with laws and regulations [34][35] - The General Office of the State Council issued the "Notice on Further Increasing Policy Support for Stabilizing Employment", proposing policy measures from 7 aspects to promote high - quality economic development [34][35] - The State Administration for Market Regulation emphasized strengthening fair competition review and intensifying anti - monopoly supervision and law enforcement on July 9, 2025 [34][35] - Starting from January 1, 2025, the basic pension levels for retirees who have gone through retirement procedures in accordance with regulations and receive monthly basic pensions by the end of 2024 will be increased by 2%, with the overall adjustment level being 2% of the monthly average basic pension of retirees in 2024 [34][35] 2.2 Industry News - Benzene futures and options will be listed for trading on Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange at 9:00 and 21:00 on July 22, 2025, respectively. The first batch of benzene futures contracts to be listed are PL2601, PL2602, PL2603, PL2604, PL2605, PL2606, and PL2607 [35]

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