1月7日，德国联邦统计局最新数据显示，2025年12月消费者价格指数（CPI）同比上涨2.0%，显著低于 11月2.6%的涨幅，亦低于市场普遍预期的2.2%。这一超预期放缓使德国通胀率自2025年6月以来再度回 到欧洲央行设定的2%目标水平。经济学家普遍预计，将于本周公布的欧元区12月CPI同比涨幅将回落至 2%的目标位。尽管如此，分析人士指出，单一月份的数据尚不足以推动欧洲央行调整当前货币政策立 场。欧洲央行近期预测显示，2026年及2027年通胀率将略低于2%目标，政策制定者虽对"反通胀进程取 得进展"表达信心，但仍警惕潜在风险。 另外，美联储理事米兰当地时间周二表示，为了维持经济持续增长，美联储今年有必要采取更为激进的 降息举措。值得注意的是，米兰的美联储理事任期将于本月底结束。米兰在当天接受媒体采访时 称："我认为当前的货币政策明显具有抑制性，正在拖累经济发展。"他补充说："今年降息幅度很可能 需要超过100个基点，这在政策上是合理的。"米兰表示，基础通胀水平基本已经回落至美联储2%的目 标附近，他预计美国经济今年将保持强劲增长。他认为，如果美联储未能下调短期借贷成本，这一前景 可能会被破坏。 今日需 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has decided to maintain the cash rate at 3.6% following three rate cuts this year, indicating a cautious approach due to stronger-than-expected inflation and economic data [1][2] Economic Indicators - The RBA noted signs of a recovery in private demand and stable labor market conditions, which influenced their decision to keep the cash rate unchanged [1] - Recent data showed that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose for the second consecutive month in August, reaching the upper limit of the RBA's inflation target range of 2% to 3% [1] - The unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2% in August, reflecting a tight labor market [1] Market Reactions - Following the RBA's decision, the Australian dollar rose to 0.6607 against the US dollar, and the yield on three-year government bonds increased slightly to 3.59% [1] - Traders have reduced their bets on a rate cut in November, with the probability now below 50%, and have fully priced in the next rate cut to occur in May next year instead of February [1] Future Outlook - The RBA is expected to adopt a cautious stance moving forward, with any future easing likely to be implemented gradually [2] - Upcoming economic data, including third-quarter inflation figures and employment reports, will be critical for the RBA's future decisions [1][2] Global Economic Context - International factors such as protectionist policies and geopolitical tensions are contributing to economic uncertainty, although the worst-case scenarios regarding tariffs have not materialized for Australia [2][3]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) is prepared to adjust interest rates as needed despite controlling inflation, indicating ongoing uncertainty in the economic environment [1] Group 1: Interest Rate Policy - ECB has signaled a reluctance to further lower borrowing costs after eight consecutive rate cuts over the past year [1] - Current consumer price increases are aligning closely with the 2% target, suggesting stability in inflation [1] Group 2: Economic Outlook - The visibility of the Eurozone economy has improved following a trade agreement between Brussels and Washington [1] - The ECB views the current 2% interest rate level as reasonable, reflecting a successful anti-inflation process [1] - Risks to price stability are described as balanced, while risks to economic growth are slightly skewed to the downside [1]

Group 1 - The European Central Bank (ECB) decided to maintain interest rates amid significant economic uncertainty, leading to a sharp sell-off in European bonds and a notable increase in yields [1][2] - Year-to-date, the ECB has cut rates four times, reducing its main deposit tool from 3% in January to 2% in June, down from a record high of 4% last year [1] - The ECB stated that the environment remains "exceptionally uncertain," particularly due to trade disputes, despite the eurozone's annual inflation rate reaching the ECB's target of 2% [1][2] Group 2 - The future of EU-US trade relations remains uncertain, with potential tariffs of 15% on all EU products exported to the US, which could lead to retaliatory measures from the EU [2] - ECB officials have indicated that their efforts to reduce inflation are nearing completion, as they seek a "neutral" interest rate that neither stimulates nor restricts growth [2] - There is speculation that the ECB may consider another rate cut in September if a trade agreement with the US is not reached, to mitigate the economic impact of potential tariffs [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the UK central bank governor Bailey indicates that the domestic price disinflation process and wage pressures are ongoing [1] Group 2 - The central bank is closely monitoring the inflation trends and wage dynamics as they play a crucial role in shaping monetary policy [1] - Continued wage pressures may influence future interest rate decisions by the central bank [1] - The ongoing disinflation process suggests a potential easing of inflationary pressures in the UK economy [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Governor of the Central Bank of Turkey stated that necessary measures will be taken if the development of demand negatively impacts the anti-inflation process [1] Group 1 - The Central Bank is closely monitoring the demand trends in relation to inflation control [1] - The statement indicates a proactive approach by the Central Bank to manage economic stability [1]