dbg markets发现美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特（Scott Bessent）近期在货币政策方面抛出了极具冲击力的观点，他坚定地认为美联储在9月召开利率决议会议 之际，必须采取大胆且果断的行动。周三，贝森特言辞恳切地向美联储官员发出呼吁，敦促他们摒弃长期以来秉持的渐进主义策略。他明确提出，美联储在 下月应一次性降息50个基点，并且后续要通过一系列连贯的降息操作，将当前处于4.25%至4.5%区间的借贷成本大幅下调。 然而，贝森特这一激进的降息提议，面临着诸多现实阻碍。从美联储的决策逻辑来看，若没有劳动力市场出现显著恶化的有力证据，如此大幅度的降息举措 很难被付诸实践。毕竟，劳动力市场状况是美联储衡量经济健康程度的关键指标之一，稳定的就业形势意味着经济基本面尚可，此时激进降息可能会引发不 必要的通胀风险。这就导致美联储主席鲍威尔所代表的官方政策立场，与贝森特所传达的政府诉求之间，存在着难以调和的矛盾。 贝森特在周三进一步强调，利率至少应该比当前水平降低1.5个百分点。而美国总统特朗普的态度则更为激进，他公开坚持利率应降至近1%的水平。要知 道，1%的利率水平通常只有在经济陷入深度困境、面临严重衰退风险时才会 ...

Group 1 - The European Central Bank (ECB) decided to maintain interest rates amid significant economic uncertainty, leading to a sharp sell-off in European bonds and a notable increase in yields [1][2] - Year-to-date, the ECB has cut rates four times, reducing its main deposit tool from 3% in January to 2% in June, down from a record high of 4% last year [1] - The ECB stated that the environment remains "exceptionally uncertain," particularly due to trade disputes, despite the eurozone's annual inflation rate reaching the ECB's target of 2% [1][2] Group 2 - The future of EU-US trade relations remains uncertain, with potential tariffs of 15% on all EU products exported to the US, which could lead to retaliatory measures from the EU [2] - ECB officials have indicated that their efforts to reduce inflation are nearing completion, as they seek a "neutral" interest rate that neither stimulates nor restricts growth [2] - There is speculation that the ECB may consider another rate cut in September if a trade agreement with the US is not reached, to mitigate the economic impact of potential tariffs [2]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) has reached a neutral interest rate level, indicating a potential stabilization in monetary policy [1] Group 1 - ECB Governing Council member Simkus stated that the central bank has achieved a neutral interest rate level [1] - There is uncertainty regarding the decisions that the United States will make on July 9 [1] - It is crucial to maintain a steady approach regarding interest rates [1]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) has reached a neutral interest rate level, indicating a potential stabilization in monetary policy [1] Group 1 - The ECB's current stance suggests that it has achieved a balance where interest rates neither stimulate nor restrict economic growth [1] - This development may influence future monetary policy decisions and market expectations regarding interest rate adjustments [1]

Core Viewpoint - The rising fiscal deficit may impact the Federal Reserve, potentially leading to an increase in the neutral interest rate level [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve Governor, Christopher Waller, indicated that a one-directional increase in the fiscal deficit could have implications for monetary policy [1] - The potential rise in the neutral interest rate level is a concern for the Federal Reserve as it navigates economic conditions [1]

Group 1 - The core message of the European Central Bank's meeting minutes is to clarify that the current cycle's endpoint should not be misunderstood as the neutral interest rate level [1] Group 2 - The ECB aims to prevent market misconceptions regarding the neutral interest rate and its implications for monetary policy [1] - The discussion reflects the ECB's commitment to maintaining clarity in its communication to avoid misinterpretations by market participants [1] - The minutes indicate a focus on ensuring that the market understands the ongoing nature of monetary policy adjustments rather than viewing them as a final destination [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of England's committee member, Taylor, stated that the central bank is still far from reaching a neutral interest rate level [1] Group 1 - Taylor emphasized that the current interest rates are not yet at a neutral level, indicating that there is still room for adjustment in monetary policy [1] - The statement reflects ongoing concerns about inflation and economic stability, suggesting that the central bank may need to maintain or adjust rates further [1] - The comments highlight the challenges faced by the Bank of England in navigating economic conditions and setting appropriate interest rates [1]