12月24日，金价高位震荡，早盘一度冲高至4555.1美元，盘中受就业数据回暖，降息预期降温，金价震 荡走弱，一度跌至4474美元，尾盘小幅回升，截至收盘，COMEX黄金期货收跌0.01%报4505.4美元/盎 司，黄金ETF华夏（518850）涨0.02%，黄金股ETF（159562）跌0.39%。 贝莱德策略师指出，美联储在2026年预计将仅实施有限幅度的降息。随着本轮周期已累计降息175个基 点，美联储正接近中性利率水平。除非劳动力市场出现急剧恶化，否则2026年进一步降息的空间相当有 限。LSEG数据显示，市场目前预计美联储在2026年将进行两次降息。 消息面上，当日美国劳工部公布的数据显示，美国12月20日当周首次申请失业救济人数降至21.4万人， 预期和前值为22.4万人。这一数字已回落至2021年11月的水平，表明劳动力市场仍未见明显压力。就业 市场的回温使得美联储一月降息概率或进一步降低。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve, represented by Paulson, indicates that it will need to explore and identify the neutral interest rate level [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is currently in a phase of assessing the appropriate neutral interest rate [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has decided to lower the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to between 4.00% and 4.25%, marking the first rate cut since December 2024 [1] Summary by Relevant Sections Federal Reserve Decision - The decision aligns with market expectations, as indicated by HSBC Global Research economist Ryan Wang [1] - The latest dot plot shows that there is still disagreement among Federal Reserve officials regarding the future path of rate cuts [1] Future Rate Predictions - HSBC maintains its previous forecast that the Federal Reserve will implement two more rate cuts of 25 basis points each by the end of 2026, bringing the target range down to 3.5% to 3.75% [1] Economic Factors - Factors such as expansionary fiscal policy, the sticky nature of inflation due to tariff effects, and pressure from a depreciating dollar may keep the core PCE inflation level relatively high in the U.S. until 2026 [1] - If the labor market worsens, particularly with an increase in unemployment claims, the Federal Reserve may consider another 25 basis point cut in October or a larger cut next year [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point interest rate cut, marking its first reduction in nine months, bringing the target range to 4% to 4.25%, the lowest level in nearly three years. However, Chairman Powell characterized this cut as a "risk management" move, indicating uncertainty about future rate cuts [1][3]. Group 1: Interest Rate Predictions - Market expectations diverge from the Federal Reserve's forecasts regarding the pace and depth of future rate cuts. The Fed's median prediction suggests two more cuts this year, while Wall Street anticipates a more sustained reduction, expecting two additional cuts in the remaining meetings of the year and two more in the first half of 2026 [3][4]. - The consensus among market traders and economists indicates a belief that there will be two more cuts this year, with a split within the Fed regarding the timing and number of cuts in 2026 [4][6]. Group 2: Economic Outlook and Market Reactions - The differing expectations stem from contrasting confidence in the economy's "soft landing." Powell's hawkish signals suggest a cautious approach, while the market is more concerned about economic data, anticipating that the Fed may need to act more quickly [6][8]. - Following the announcement, financial markets exhibited confusion, with mixed reactions in stock indices and a volatile response in the bond market, highlighting the uncertainty surrounding the Fed's signals [9].

Core Viewpoint - HSBC Global Investment Research maintains its previous forecast that the Federal Reserve will only lower interest rates twice by 25 basis points each before the end of 2026, bringing the target rate range down to 3.5%-3.75% [1] Summary by Relevant Sections - **Federal Reserve Rate Decision** - On September 18, the Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00%-4.25%, aligning with market expectations [1] - **Future Rate Projections** - HSBC projects two additional rate cuts of 25 basis points each in December of this year and March of next year, leading to a target range of 3.5%-3.75% by the end of 2026 [1] - **Economic Factors Influencing Rates** - Factors such as expansionary fiscal policy, inflation persistence due to tariff effects, and pressure from a depreciating dollar may keep the core PCE inflation relatively high in the U.S. through 2026 [1] - **Labor Market Considerations** - If the labor market worsens, particularly with an increase in unemployment claims, there is a possibility that the Federal Reserve may consider another rate cut of 25 basis points in October or a larger cut next year [1]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates for the first time in 2025, with a focus on the impact of a weak job market, persistent inflation, and increasing pressure from the White House [1][2] - The most recent dot plot indicated that Fed officials generally anticipate two rate cuts this year, with a consensus prediction of a 25 basis point cut in the upcoming meeting [1][2] - There are differing opinions on the aggressiveness of future rate cuts, with some economists predicting multiple cuts in the coming months, while others suggest a more cautious approach [3][4] Group 2 - Wilmington Trust's chief economist predicts that the Fed will maintain a neutral stance on future rate cuts, but expects three cuts by the end of this year and three more in early next year, bringing the policy rate down to a range of 2.75% to 3% [4] - Concerns about the labor market's weakness and potential negative GDP growth have led to predictions of a 50% chance of recession and worsening unemployment [5] - Former Kansas City Fed President George emphasizes the need for the Fed to balance its dual mandate of employment and inflation, noting that recent job market data has been disappointing [6]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the aggressive stance of U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on monetary policy, advocating for a significant interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, suggesting a 50 basis points reduction in September [1][3]. Group 1: Interest Rate Policy - Bessent urges the Federal Reserve to abandon its gradualist approach and implement a bold rate cut, proposing a reduction of at least 1.5 percentage points from the current range of 4.25% to 4.5% [1][3]. - President Trump supports an even more radical position, calling for rates to be lowered to nearly 1%, a level typically associated with severe economic downturns [3]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - Recent inflation reports present a mixed picture, with July's Consumer Price Index (CPI) showing moderate overall increases, which could justify a rate cut [3][4]. - However, there are concerns about accelerating price increases in the service sector, raising questions about whether this is a temporary fluctuation or a sign of a longer-term inflation trend [4]. Group 3: Historical Context and Current Challenges - Historically, the Federal Reserve has adjusted rates in 25 basis point increments to maintain stability, but larger adjustments have occurred under specific circumstances, such as the 50 basis point cut initiated in September of the previous year [4][5]. - The current economic backdrop is different, with rates nearing what officials consider a "neutral level," limiting the scope for aggressive cuts without risking inflation or asset bubbles [5].

Group 1 - The European Central Bank (ECB) decided to maintain interest rates amid significant economic uncertainty, leading to a sharp sell-off in European bonds and a notable increase in yields [1][2] - Year-to-date, the ECB has cut rates four times, reducing its main deposit tool from 3% in January to 2% in June, down from a record high of 4% last year [1] - The ECB stated that the environment remains "exceptionally uncertain," particularly due to trade disputes, despite the eurozone's annual inflation rate reaching the ECB's target of 2% [1][2] Group 2 - The future of EU-US trade relations remains uncertain, with potential tariffs of 15% on all EU products exported to the US, which could lead to retaliatory measures from the EU [2] - ECB officials have indicated that their efforts to reduce inflation are nearing completion, as they seek a "neutral" interest rate that neither stimulates nor restricts growth [2] - There is speculation that the ECB may consider another rate cut in September if a trade agreement with the US is not reached, to mitigate the economic impact of potential tariffs [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's Harker stated that the central bank is very close to neutral interest rate levels and there is currently no urgent need for rate cuts [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is approaching a neutral interest rate, indicating a balanced monetary policy stance [1] - There is no immediate necessity for interest rate reductions, suggesting a cautious approach to monetary easing [1]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) has reached a neutral interest rate level, indicating a potential stabilization in monetary policy [1] Group 1 - ECB Governing Council member Simkus stated that the central bank has achieved a neutral interest rate level [1] - There is uncertainty regarding the decisions that the United States will make on July 9 [1] - It is crucial to maintain a steady approach regarding interest rates [1]