公会称，就此次调查访问了来自50多个国家的631位受访者，其中行政总裁(CEO)和首席财务总监(CFO) 占比近40%，而最高管理层，包括：行政总裁、首席财务总监、其他C级主管和董事会成员/非执行董事 的占比高达56%。大部分调查问题均收到超过500份回复，当中行政总裁和首席财务总监的回复占总回 复约45%，而最高管理层的回复占总回复近三分之二。回复数量最多来自英国和中国的受访者，分别约 240份和60份回复。 企业成本方面，约35%的受访者料未来数年全球贸易的变化，其企业成本或增逾10%，46%受访者预计 将增加高达10%，11%受访者预计将维持不变，只有6%的受访者预计会下降。公会指，贸易体系碎片化 可能会推高价格风险。同时，由于美国贸易政策的重大改变，调查显示60%的企业近年已经迁移部分生 产、投资或供应商的所在地，61%的企业表示可能会在未来数年内迁移。 ACCA(特许公认会计师公会)发表最新报告指，尽管85%受访者担心关税对其企业影响，企业主管对未 来看法更加乐观，分别有38%、29%企业主管预计其公司全球贸易额将"大幅"成长或"略有"成长。公会 形容，尽管美国总统特朗普的关税政策可能继续对全球贸易 ...

智通财经APP获悉，继今年三次降息之后，澳洲联储周二将现金利率维持在3.6%，这一决定符合市场预 期。澳洲联储警告称，第三季度通胀可能强于预期，未来举措将取决于经济数据，促使交易员减少对近 期降息的押注。 澳洲联储主席Michele Bullock上周在议会作证时表示，澳大利亚国内经济数据"符合"或"强于"澳洲联储 的预期。官员们还注意到，随着私营部门需求回升，经济正处于"周期性复苏"阶段。 澳洲联储利率制定委员会在一份声明中表示："鉴于有迹象表明私人需求正在复苏，部分领域通胀可能 持续存在，且整体劳动力市场状况保持稳定，委员会决定维持当前的现金利率不变。" 交易员们降低了对11月降息的押注，目前概率不到50%，并完全定价下次降息将发生在明年5月，而非 利率决议公布前的明年2月。 利率决议公布后，澳元兑美元汇率升至0.6607 ，而对政策敏感的澳大利亚三年期政府债券收益率则小幅 上升至3.59%。 多伦多道明银行驻新加坡亚太区高级利率策略师Prashant Newnaha表示："澳洲联储并未急于下结论。不 过，澳洲联储目前承认经济活动数据持续走强，通胀较为坚挺，房地产市场回暖，以及市场供应趋紧。 所有这些都使 ...

你有没有发现，这几年特朗普骂来骂去，总有印度的名字蹦出来。昨天他又开炮，说美国和印度的贸易是单方面的灾难，印度关税高得离 谱，美国企业根本卖不进去。话说得挺狠，我第一反应是，他又在吵架了，可仔细想想，这里面还真有点门道。 我查了一下，美国和印度的贸易数据。2023年，美国对印度出口大概是480亿美元，进口差不多是950亿美元，逆差接近470亿美元（数据来 源：美国商务部国际贸易局）。特朗普说美国买得多卖得少，这话没错。尤其是印度对一些美国产品关税确实高，比如汽车，基本上得缴 一百多的税，美国车企压根没市场。 但问题是，印度也不是单纯卡美国脖子，它对大多数国家关税都偏高。根据世界贸易组织的数据，印度平均关税水平在15%左右，是主要 经济体里数一数二的高。这就是莫迪的保护主义政策，想扶持本土制造业。特朗普在喊不公平，但印度国内听着只会觉得理直气壮。 这里还得看能源和军火这两个领域。印度石油进口大头来自俄罗斯，2023年有超过35%的原油从俄罗斯买的（数据来源：路透社），比从 美国买的多几倍。军火更明显，印度和俄罗斯几十年的合作关系，苏霍伊战机、S400防空系统，这些关键装备都是俄制的。美国想卖武 器，但印度一来怕 ...

作为一名具有深厚经济学背景的美国学者，梅拉梅德的言论并非仅仅是一种简单的批评，而是可以看作 是对当前美国经济及外交政策的反思与担忧。他对特朗普的政策表达的失望，尤其体现在其对美国与其 他国家关系的理解上。如今，全球经济的发展格局已经不是单一国家所能完全控制或左右的，特朗普采 取的强势措施虽然短期内可能获取一些利益，但从长远来看，这样的做法并不能解决根本性的问题。 美国著名经济学家、曾任芝加哥商品交易所主席的利奥·梅拉梅德，近日在8月13日接受《日经新闻》的 采访时，对美国总统特朗普的保护主义政策进行了严厉的批评。他指出，这一政策不仅是错误的，更可 能引发严重的长期后果。他强调，特朗普的政策正在撕裂国家的团结，而这种分裂不仅让人与人之间的 信任感下降，也使得不真实的叙述变得越来越常态化，进而让谎言的接受度不断提高。 在谈到中国时，梅拉梅德赞扬了中国人民的素质，指出他们受过良好的教育，拥有聪明的头脑和勤奋的 品质。他认为，尽管美国目前凭借美元作为世界储备货币保持了一定的领先地位，然而这并不能避免中 国在未来有可能崛起，成为全球的新领导者。他的这一看法透露出对美国当前国际地位未来走向的深切 担忧。 值得注意的是，梅 ...

Group 1: Tariff Impact on Consumers and Economy - The overall effective average tariff rate for American consumers is projected to rise to 18.3%, the highest since 1934, due to the new round of "reciprocal tariffs" set to take effect on August 7 [1][2] - The increase in tariffs is expected to raise the prices of imported goods, acting as a consumption tax that will squeeze disposable income [2] - Recent economic data indicates a slowdown in the U.S. labor market, with average new jobs added over the past three months at only 35,000 and an unemployment rate rising to 4.2% [1][7] Group 2: Trade Agreements and Economic Principles - The U.S. has reached preliminary trade agreements with several economies, including the UK, Vietnam, and Japan, with the U.S.-Japan trade agreement serving as a model for future agreements [4][5] - Current trade agreements are based on four principles, including a 15% base tariff on exports to the U.S. and high tariffs on specific industries like steel and aluminum [5] - The report warns that increased tariff levels will lead to economic growth slowdown and rising inflationary pressures, predicting long-term negative impacts on international competitiveness and resource allocation efficiency [5] Group 3: Consumer Behavior and Market Trends - Consumer anxiety is rising, with significant declines in sales for major companies like Mondelez International and Procter & Gamble, indicating a slowdown in consumer spending across various income levels [8] - The restaurant industry is also experiencing shifts, with high-income families gravitating towards value-oriented dining options while lower-income families reduce their dining out frequency [8] - Economic challenges are attributed to rising tariffs and strict immigration policies, which are impacting corporate profits and household purchasing power [7]

美媒：关税给美国经济带来麻烦 "劳动力市场敲响了警钟" 中新网8月4日电 综合美媒报道，随着美国关税政策持续发酵，就业增长减弱、通胀持续攀升，经济增 速放缓的趋势已陆续显现。经济学家和舆论普遍担忧，美国政府对真实风险的掩盖，或将引发更深层次 的经济隐患。 据美联社报道，自2025年4月美国公布大规模关税政策以来，制造业岗位已减少逾3.7万个，家具、电器 等进口商品价格显著上升，上半年GDP年化增速跌至1.3%。 美国劳工部8月1日公布的数据显示，7月美国失业率环比上升，当月非农业部门新增就业岗位表现也逊 于市场预期。5月和6月非农业部门新增就业岗位数量较此前公布数据也有大幅下调。 "劳动力市场刚刚敲响了警钟。"美国《华尔街日报》援引惠誉国际评级的美国经济研究主管索诺拉的话 评价道。 晨星首席美国经济学家考德威尔也表示，"美国就业增长放缓速度之快，以及就业数据确切含义的不确 定性，应该引起警惕。" 分析称，在最新就业报告发布后，美国总统特朗普不仅无视数据给出的预警，还直接解雇了负责统计的 联邦官员，引发外界对其规避问责的质疑。 该媒体称，特朗普的关税政策给经济带来了麻烦。美国经济没有陷入衰退，并不意味着保护主义 ...

Core Viewpoint - Trump's unexpected exemption on refined copper products has disrupted market expectations, leading to significant losses for traders who bet on rising copper prices in the U.S. and substantial gains for those who anticipated Trump's policy changes [1][6][10]. Market Reaction - Following the announcement, copper futures prices on the New York Commodity Exchange plummeted by 22%, marking the largest single-day drop since at least 1988 [2][4]. - The market upheaval indicates that many long positions based on U.S. protectionist policies faced massive losses, while traders betting on Trump's unpredictability reaped significant rewards [4][12]. Options Market Impact - Data from the options market revealed that over 31,000 contracts shifted from out-of-the-money to in-the-money status overnight, with a nominal value soaring to $3.54 billion [5][14]. - Prior to the exemption announcement, only 675 put options were in-the-money, valued at $94.4 million, highlighting the dramatic shift in market sentiment [13]. Price Disparity - The strategy that capitalized on the price difference between Comex copper and London Metal Exchange (LME) copper collapsed as the exemption news eliminated the previously significant premium of over 20% for Comex copper [9][11]. - Comex copper prices fell sharply, transitioning to a discount compared to LME prices, which only saw a minor decline of 0.9% [9]. Lobbying and Future Implications - Various stakeholders, including U.S. copper producers and foreign governments, engaged in extensive lobbying that influenced the policy direction regarding refined copper import tariffs [16]. - Although the immediate exemption has been granted, the prospect of import tariffs on refined copper has not been entirely dismissed, with suggestions for a phased implementation starting in 2027 [16].

Group 1 - The strong trade policies of the Trump administration are predicted to cause over $2 trillion in losses to the global economy by 2027 [1] - Current U.S. tariff levels have reached their highest point since the 1930s, being six times higher than at the beginning of Trump's presidency [3] - The impact of protectionist policies is complex, affecting various global manufacturers, including the automotive industry in Japan, textile factories in Vietnam, and U.S. agricultural workers [3] Group 2 - While some losses may be compensated through the restructuring of production chains over time, this process will take time and may reduce U.S. influence over production and logistics [4] - The restructuring is likely to be oriented towards minimizing U.S. impact, suggesting that while aiming to "Make America Great Again," the Trump administration may be setting up long-term economic challenges for the U.S. [4]

Group 1 - Trump's announcement on July 7 to impose high tariffs on 14 countries, including Japan and South Korea, with rates ranging from 25% to 40% [1][4] - On July 9, Trump extended tariffs to an additional 6 countries, totaling 20 nations affected by the new measures [2][4] - The tariffs will not take effect immediately but are set to begin on August 1, allowing countries time to negotiate [4][6] Group 2 - Business leaders in Los Angeles expressed strong concerns about the tariffs, highlighting the negative impact on trade, budgeting, and investment expansion [4][6] - The closure of a century-old restaurant in California exemplifies the adverse effects of the tariffs on American businesses [6] - The tariffs have led to significant market reactions, indicating a backlash against protectionist policies [6][9] Group 3 - Notably, India, Canada, and EU countries were excluded from the tariff list, as they had previously taken countermeasures against the U.S. [6][9] - The EU plans to initiate countermeasures on July 14, emphasizing the need to rebuild partnerships and respect multilateral trade systems [6][9] - The strong stance of the Trump administration has complicated negotiations with countries like Japan, which remains firm on protecting its agricultural interests [8][9] Group 4 - Trump's proposal to impose a 50% tariff on copper raises concerns about the impact on U.S. industries reliant on copper for electronics and infrastructure [11][13] - The U.S. currently meets only 50% of its copper demand domestically, indicating a significant supply gap that could lead to increased prices and costs for consumers [13] - The potential for rising copper prices could affect various sectors, including infrastructure investment and employment [13] Group 5 - The ongoing discussions regarding the appointment of a "shadow Federal Reserve chairman" have raised concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve and its implications for the dollar and bond markets [13][14] - Two prominent Republican candidates for the position are Kevin Hassett and Kevin Walsh, both of whom have close ties to the Trump administration [14][16] - The actions of the Trump administration, from tariffs to potential changes in Federal Reserve leadership, are expected to have profound impacts on the market [16]

Core Viewpoint - The Arab countries and China are committed to mutual support and maintaining a multilateral trade system that benefits developing countries, aiming for a fairer and more inclusive global economic governance system [1][2]. Group 1: Political and Economic Cooperation - The political, economic, and cultural exchanges between Arab countries and China are deepening based on mutual respect and win-win cooperation [2]. - The cooperation between the Arab Parliament and the National People's Congress of China enhances bilateral and multilateral coordination, particularly in legislative support for economic, cultural, and scientific cooperation [2]. Group 2: Stance on Global Issues - Both Arab countries and China share a common stance on global issues, supporting the principles of international law, strengthening multilateralism, and opposing hegemonism and double standards [2]. - The protectionist policies of certain countries, particularly the United States, are seen as harmful to international trade stability and detrimental to the interests of developing countries [2]. Group 3: Call for International Cooperation - There is a call for enhanced international cooperation to build a fairer and more inclusive global economic governance system that better protects the economic and developmental interests of developing countries [2].