如果说踏空泡泡玛特还可以归咎为"代沟"，那么大量踏空更像"奢侈品"的老铺黄金，看上去更像是方法论出了问题。 本文约 3 3 0 0 字，推荐阅读时长 1 0 分钟，欢迎关注新财富公众号。 许多资深Commodity投资者， 特别是经历过2008年金市崩盘的，大多错过了老铺黄金前期的上涨行情。 段永平3月12日在雪球回复对老铺的看法时讲"餐厅毛利率普遍很高，但纯利率普遍很低。黄金生意我搞不懂大街上到处都是金铺，跟餐厅差不多。"很多 人和大道的看法一样。年初看空老铺、抄底白酒是更多人的选择。 回看半年前的主流short观点，主要是两方面： 1）一方面认知到黄金是老铺β的投资人，他们对于金价出现了错误判断; 2）另一方面未认知到黄金是老铺β的投资人，他们无法理解老铺破圈的原因。一是他们对于黄金能够成为珠宝是持底层质疑的，他们认为黄金作为饰品 售出非金价的溢价是不可持续的;二是在中国，对于门店数量天花显而易见的商业模式（老铺奢侈品打法的门店选址门槛很高），从业时间较长的PM会 保持高度谨慎，他们认为SSSG的持续增长在中国的商业模式中几乎不存在。 市场会给出最真实的答案，从资本市场100倍的PE水平和媒体舆论时常将其 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant drop in the stock price of Laopu Gold despite its impressive financial performance, highlighting a disconnect between market valuation and actual business fundamentals [1][8]. Financial Performance - Laopu Gold reported a revenue of 12.354 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 251%, and a net profit of 2.268 billion yuan, up 285.8% [1][3]. - The company achieved an average daily sales figure of 77.5 million yuan, which is considered remarkable in a sluggish consumer environment [3][4]. Market Valuation and Stock Performance - Following its peak stock price of 1,108 HKD on July 8, Laopu Gold's stock fell by 38% to 690 HKD by August 1, resulting in a market capitalization loss of over 80 billion HKD [1][7]. - As of August 20, Laopu Gold's market capitalization was 109 billion HKD, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 78.03, significantly higher than its competitor Chow Tai Fook's 24.11 [1][8]. Competitive Advantages - Laopu Gold's unique selling proposition lies in its ancient gold craftsmanship, which allows it to command a premium price, with a 55% markup compared to competitors [4][10]. - The company has a strong channel efficiency, with an average sales performance of 459 million yuan per store in top commercial centers, outperforming both domestic and international luxury brands [5][10]. Market Trends and Growth Potential - The ancient gold jewelry market is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 64.6% from 2018 to 2023, with Laopu Gold expected to capture a growing market share [4][11]. - The brand's loyal customer base is expanding, with a significant increase in membership contributing to 68% of its revenue [11][12]. Challenges and Risks - The stock price decline is attributed to a combination of factors, including a large number of shares being unlocked and concerns over whether the luxury narrative can sustain itself amid market competition [8][12]. - Laopu Gold's reliance on a single product category, ancient gold, raises questions about the sustainability of its growth as competitors enter the market [11][12]. Brand Positioning and Market Perception - Laopu Gold aims to position itself as a luxury brand akin to Hermes, but faces challenges in establishing a strong emotional connection and brand value that resonates with consumers [14][15]. - The brand's narrative of transforming gold into a cultural luxury product is met with skepticism, as consumers still prioritize gold's intrinsic value as a stable asset [14][16].

Core Viewpoint - The company, Laopu Gold, is adjusting its product prices on August 25, following a previous price increase in February and an informal adjustment in April, indicating a trend of rising prices in the gold jewelry market [1][3][4]. Price Adjustments - Laopu Gold announced a price adjustment set for August 25, with details to be confirmed by actual store prices [1]. - In February, the company raised product prices by approximately 5% to 10%, leading to customer limits on purchases and increased foot traffic at stores [3]. - In April, some lower-priced items experienced price increases starting April 12, although no formal announcement was made [4]. Company Background - Founded in 2009, Laopu Gold is a pioneer in promoting "ancient method gold" craftsmanship in China, establishing a strong brand presence in this niche market [4]. - The company was listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in June 2024, with its stock price soaring from an initial price of HKD 40.50 to a peak of HKD 1108, marking a nearly 25-fold increase [4]. Recent Performance - As of July 2025, the company's stock price has seen a decline of nearly 30% from its peak on July 8, influenced by market conditions and sector rotation [6]. - Laopu Gold reported a pre-profit announcement on July 27, indicating that for the first half of 2025, sales could reach CNY 14.3 billion, a year-on-year increase of 252%, with adjusted net profit potentially reaching CNY 2.36 billion, up approximately 292% [7]. - The growth in revenue is attributed to the expanding brand influence and the optimization of product offerings, contributing to significant increases in both online and offline sales [7].