Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Views of the Report - Palm oil has strong fundamental support, and it is advisable to go long during macro pullbacks [1]. - Soybean oil lacks driving force from US soybeans and will fluctuate and consolidate at high levels [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs [Fundamental Tracking] - **Futures Prices and Fluctuations**: Palm oil's daytime closing price was 9,486 yuan/ton with a -1.06% change, and night - time closing price was 9,560 yuan/ton with a 0.78% change; soybean oil's daytime closing price was 8,442 yuan/ton with a -1.31% change, and night - time closing price was 8,418 yuan/ton with a -0.28% change; rapeseed oil's daytime closing price was 9,901 yuan/ton with a 0.03% change, and night - time closing price was 9,782 yuan/ton with a -1.20% change. The Malaysian palm oil's daytime closing price was 4,497 ringgit/ton with a -0.51% change, and night - time closing price was 4,529 ringgit/ton with a 0.69% change. CBOT soybean oil's daytime closing price was 51.41 cents/pound with a -0.77% change [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest Changes**: Palm oil's trading volume decreased by 7,875 to 79,561 lots, and open interest decreased by 26,336 to 97,566 lots; soybean oil's trading volume increased by 14,509 to 97,939 lots, and open interest decreased by 44,957 to 111,062 lots; rapeseed oil's trading volume decreased by 5,695 to 23,619 lots, and open interest decreased by 4,258 to 38,617 lots [1]. - **Spot Prices and Changes**: Palm oil (24 - degree, Guangdong) decreased by 200 yuan/ton to 9,510 yuan/ton; first - grade soybean oil (Guangdong) decreased by 200 yuan/ton to 8,610 yuan/ton; fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil (Guangxi) decreased by 130 yuan/ton to 9,830 yuan/ton; Malaysian palm oil FOB price decreased by 5 dollars/ton to 1,110 dollars/ton [1]. - **Basis**: Palm oil (Guangdong) basis was 24 yuan/ton; soybean oil (Guangdong) basis was 168 yuan/ton; rapeseed oil (Guangxi) basis was - 71 yuan/ton [1]. - **Price Spreads**: The spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil futures was 274 yuan/ton (previous trading day) and 210 yuan/ton (two trading days ago); the spread between soybean oil and palm oil futures was - 1,140 yuan/ton and - 1,114 yuan/ton; palm oil 9 - 1 spread was - 68 yuan/ton and - 52 yuan/ton; soybean oil 9 - 1 spread was 28 yuan/ton; rapeseed oil 9 - 1 spread was 73 yuan/ton and 48 yuan/ton [1]. [Macro and Industry News] - The direct impact of US market restrictions on the Malaysian palm oil industry is expected to be limited due to the uniqueness and non - substitutability of Malaysian Sustainable Palm Oil (MSPO) certified products. In 2024, Malaysia's palm oil exports to the US were 191,231 tons, accounting for only 1.1% of the total annual exports. The government will continue to provide assistance through various measures such as the oil palm smallholder replanting financing incentive program [2][3]. - Amspec reported that Malaysia's palm oil exports from August 1 - 20 were 869,780 tons, a 17.5% increase from the same period last month. ITS reported that Malaysia's palm oil exports from August 1 - 20 were 929,051 tons, a 13.61% increase from the same period last month [3]. [Trend Strength] - Palm oil trend strength is 0, and soybean oil trend strength is 0. The trend strength ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [4].

Report Overview - Report Date: August 21, 2025 - Report Source: Guotai Junan Futures - Report Theme: Commodity Research Morning Report - Agricultural Products Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - **Palm Oil**: Strong fundamental support, consider going long on macro pullbacks [2][4] - **Soybean Oil**: Insufficient driver from US soybeans, expected to trade in a high - level range [2][4] - **Soybean Meal**: Likely to trade in a range as overnight US soybeans edged up and rapeseed meal was weak [2][8] - **Soybean No.1**: Expected to trade weakly [2][8] - **Corn**: Expected to trend weakly [2][11] - **Sugar**: Expected to trade with a slight upward bias [2][14] - **Cotton**: Attention should be paid to the situation of new cotton listings [2][18] - **Eggs**: Focus on the rhythm of old hen culling [2][25] - **Hogs**: Wait for spot market confirmation at the end of the month [2][27] - **Peanuts**: Near - term contracts are stronger than long - term contracts [2][33] Summary by Commodity Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Fundamental Tracking**: Palm oil futures prices showed a decline during the day and a rise at night, with a day - closing price of 9,486 yuan/ton (-1.06%) and a night - closing price of 9,560 yuan/ton (+0.78%). Soybean oil futures also declined during the day and at night, with a day - closing price of 8,442 yuan/ton (-1.31%) and a night - closing price of 8,418 yuan/ton (-0.28%) [4] - **Macro and Industry News**: US market restrictions have limited direct impact on the Malaysian palm oil industry. Malaysian palm oil exports from August 1 - 20 increased compared to the same period last month, with Amspec reporting a 17.5% increase and ITS reporting a 13.61% increase [5][6] - **Trend Intensity**: Palm oil and soybean oil both have a trend intensity of 0 [7] Soybean Meal and Soybean No.1 - **Fundamental Tracking**: CBOT soybeans and soybean meal futures rose overnight. In the domestic market, soybean meal spot prices were stable to slightly up, and soybean No.1 futures showed a weak trend [8] - **Macro and Industry News**: On August 20, CBOT soybeans followed the rise of soybean meal. The annual Midwest crop inspection is ongoing, with varying soybean pod numbers in different states [8][10] - **Trend Intensity**: Both soybean meal and soybean No.1 have a trend intensity of 0 [10] Corn - **Fundamental Tracking**: Corn futures prices declined, with C2509 at 2,226 yuan/ton (-1.33%) and C2511 at 2,170 yuan/ton (-0.28%). Spot prices in various regions also showed a downward trend [11] - **Macro and Industry News**: Corn prices in the north and south showed different trends, with northern prices stable and southern prices weakening [12] - **Trend Intensity**: Corn has a trend intensity of 0 [13] Sugar - **Fundamental Tracking**: The raw sugar price was 16.57 cents/pound, the mainstream spot price was 5,990 yuan/ton, and the futures main - contract price was 5,676 yuan/ton [14] - **Macro and Industry News**: Brazil's sugar production needs to be re - evaluated, and India's monsoon rainfall has weakened. China's sugar imports in July increased [14] - **Trend Intensity**: Sugar has a trend intensity of 1 [17] Cotton - **Fundamental Tracking**: Cotton futures prices declined slightly during the day and rose slightly at night. Spot prices were generally stable, with some regions showing minor declines [18] - **Macro and Industry News**: Cotton spot trading was light, and the cotton yarn and fabric markets had limited improvement [19] - **Trend Intensity**: Cotton has a trend intensity of 0 [23] Eggs - **Fundamental Tracking**: Egg futures prices showed mixed trends, with the 2509 contract at 3,000 yuan/500 kg (-0.76%) and the 2601 contract at 3,490 yuan/500 kg (+0.23%) [25] - **Trend Intensity**: Eggs have a trend intensity of 0 [25] Hogs - **Fundamental Tracking**: Hog spot and futures prices showed different trends. The market pressure is high due to increased supply and limited demand [29][31] - **Market Logic**: In August, the planned slaughter volume of group farms increased, and the demand growth was limited. The 9 - month contract is still at a premium to the warehouse - receipt cost [31] - **Trend Intensity**: Hogs have a trend intensity of - 1 [30] Peanuts - **Fundamental Tracking**: Peanut futures prices declined, with PK510 at 8,004 yuan/ton (-0.40%) and PK511 at 7,782 yuan/ton (-0.46%). Spot prices were stable [33] - **Spot Market Focus**: New peanuts in some regions are gradually being listed, with limited supply and stable prices [34] - **Trend Intensity**: Peanuts have a trend intensity of 0 [35]