格隆汇1月1日｜2025年最后一个交易日金价下跌，但全年计，金价升64%，创1979年以来46年最大升 幅。金价上升主要是美联储减息、地缘政治风险升温、各国央行增持，以及资金持续流入黄金ETF交易 所买卖基金等推动向上。 金融畅销书《货币战争》作者里卡斯(James Rickards)近期在媒体访问中预 期，金价2026年底前有望冲上一万美元，白银亦可能上望200美元。里卡斯称当前黄金牛市背后的传统 驱动因素，即各国央行的需求和相对停滞的供应，在2026年相当长一段时间内依然有效。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices, reaching a record high of $3,500 per ounce, is driven by multiple factors including expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, geopolitical uncertainties, and increased demand from central banks [1][2][3] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Gold prices have experienced a rollercoaster ride this year, with an overall increase of over 30%, while silver has risen more than 40% [1] - The market's anticipation of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September has significantly bolstered gold prices, with historical data indicating an average increase of 6% in the 60 days following a rate cut [1][2] - Other contributing factors to the rise in gold prices include a weakening dollar, record-high U.S. debt levels, and ongoing geopolitical uncertainties [2] Group 2: Future Outlook - Analysts remain optimistic about the continuation of the gold bull market, with firms like Morgan Stanley setting a target price of $3,800 for gold in Q4, suggesting potential for further upside [2] - The increasing skepticism towards the reliability of dollar assets due to rising U.S. fiscal deficits and trade policy uncertainties may drive more investors towards gold, enhancing its appeal as a safe-haven asset [3] - The current environment of heightened volatility in global bond markets and challenges to dollar credit further positions gold as an ideal diversification tool in asset allocation strategies [2][3]