热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：广发期货研究 证监许可【2011】1292号 赖众栋 Z0023571 2026年2月26日 星期四 成本端国内丁二烯短期检修计划量较少，国内供应处于高位，但下游合成橡胶企业开工率较高，对丁二 烯需求形成一定支撑，且节后丁二烯港口库存仅小幅累库，净进口下降预期兑现中，预计短期丁二烯震 行情导读：2月26日，由于春节后顺丁橡胶库存大幅累库，使得BR大幅回落，截至发稿，合成橡胶期货 主力合约BR2603跌超3%。 驱动分析一：顺丁橡胶开工率与库存均高位运行，BR上方承压 隆众数据统计显示，截至2026年2月25日，国内顺丁橡胶库存量在5.35万吨，较春节前大幅增长1.96万 吨，环比+57.68%。大幅累库的主要原因为：（1）春节假期期间物流及下游放假等因素共同影响，样 本生产企业库存大幅增长，且假期横跨两结算周期，贸易企业开单压力亦有提升，库存水平延续上涨； （2）顺丁橡胶开工率高位运行。从生产毛利来看，目前顺丁橡胶生产毛利为-300元/吨附近，尽管处于 亏损状态，但亏损幅度不足以使得顺丁橡胶生产企业主动减停产。另外，从基差来看，自2025 ...

Group 1 - The synthetic rubber futures market is showing a strong upward trend, with the main contract opening at 10,910.0 yuan/ton and reaching a high of 11,210.0 yuan, reflecting an increase of approximately 2.44% [1] - According to Zhonghui Futures, the resumption of operations at Yulong Petrochemical and the expected restart of Maoming Petrochemical in mid-January will stabilize upstream butadiene prices, supporting the cost of synthetic rubber [2] - Newhu Futures reports that the recent export of 2,000 tons of butadiene indicates a low price environment, which may strengthen the market fundamentals and support prices in the short to medium term [2] Group 2 - Ruida Futures notes that the resumption of production at various synthetic rubber facilities has led to a recovery in domestic output, although inventory levels remain under pressure due to slow sales from downstream buyers [3] - The overall production capacity utilization rate among tire manufacturers has increased, but the seasonal slowdown in demand is causing some companies to adopt flexible production strategies, potentially leading to further inventory increases [3] - The BR2602 contract is expected to fluctuate within the range of 10,600 to 11,000 yuan in the short term [3]

Group 1 - The synthetic rubber futures market is experiencing a downward trend, with the main contract opening at 11,250.0 CNY/ton and a decline of 2.57% observed [1] - Demand for synthetic rubber is weak, particularly in the semi-steel tire sector, leading to difficulties in inventory reduction [1] - The supply of butadiene is expected to continue to decline, with a significant gap between butadiene and downstream capacity, which may lead to price volatility due to low circulation [1] Group 2 - Recent weak performance in the raw material market and ongoing selling pressure have led to cautious market sentiment, with a slight decrease in overall inventory for domestic butadiene rubber producers [2] - Tire manufacturers are experiencing a decrease in capacity utilization rates, with some companies undergoing maintenance, which negatively impacts overall production [2] - As maintenance periods conclude, production is expected to recover, potentially boosting overall capacity utilization for tire manufacturers [2] Group 3 - Supply pressure has slightly eased, but demand improvement remains limited, with cost factors expected to support a stabilization and potential rebound in the market [3]