智通财经APP获悉，2025 年只剩几个交易日，可以肯定地说，股市又一次没有辜负投资者。截至 12 月 24 日收盘，广受关注的道琼斯工业平均指数、基准 标普 500 以及由成长股推动的纳斯达克综合指数已分别上涨 15%、18% 和 22%。 尽管投资者——包括华尔街分析师和评论员——普遍预计这股稳步攀升的势头将延续到新的一年，但并非所有人都如此乐观。 华尔街一位态度温和的批评者，正是美国最具影响力的政策制定者之一：美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔。 美联储主席鲍威尔点出一个无法再被掩盖的股市风险 通常，鲍威尔与其他联储理事都会避免直接评论股市表现。美联储的核心使命是制定货币政策，以实现最大就业与物价稳定的目标;而股市的涨跌波动，相 对于这些核心目标而言，只能处于次要考量地位。 话虽如此，任期将于2026年5月届满的鲍威尔近日在回应提问时，明确提到了股市估值对联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)政策制定的潜在影响。作为由12名成员 组成的决策机构(鲍威尔亦位列其中)，FOMC的核心职责包括调整联邦基金利率、执行公开市场操作(如买卖长期国债以调控市场收益率)，以实现最大就业 与物价稳定的货币政策目标。 鲍威尔表示："我们确实 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market indices reached historical highs due to expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, but market sentiment cooled following Chairman Powell's remarks on valuation concerns, leading to a short-term market adjustment [2] Valuation Indicators - The Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-Earnings (CAPE) ratio has risen to a new high since the end of 2021, indicating potential overvaluation, as it measures stock prices against the average inflation-adjusted earnings over the past decade [4] - The CAPE ratio has surpassed 40 for the first time since 2000, a period that marked the beginning of the internet bubble's collapse [5] - The "Buffett Indicator," which compares the total market capitalization of U.S. stocks to the GDP, shows that the current market valuation is approximately 2.7 times the GDP, a level not seen since March 2001 [6] - The forward Price-to-Sales (P/S) ratio for the S&P 500 has reached 3.12, the highest since records began in January 2000, suggesting elevated valuations from a revenue perspective [7] Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Despite high valuations, some analysts argue that strong earnings growth expectations may justify these levels, suggesting that high valuations could be part of a "new normal" rather than a return to historical averages [8] - The current market environment features lower debt levels among major companies and reduced earnings volatility, which may support higher valuation multiples [8]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent fluctuations in the U.S. stock market, highlighting concerns over high valuations and the potential for a market correction, particularly in light of comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell regarding valuation issues and ongoing investor skepticism about the sustainability of AI-related trades [3][4]. Group 1: Market Valuation Indicators - The Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-Earnings (CAPE) ratio has reached a new high since the end of 2021, indicating elevated valuations. As of the end of August, the CAPE ratio surpassed 40 for the first time since 2000, a period that preceded a significant market downturn [6][6]. - The "Buffett Indicator," which compares the total market capitalization of U.S. stocks to the GDP, shows that the current market cap is approximately 2.7 times the GDP, a level not seen since March 2001. This suggests a significant disconnection between asset prices and economic fundamentals [8][8]. - The Price-to-Sales (P/S) ratio for the S&P 500 has reached a record high of 3.12, the highest since records began in January 2000. This metric is considered more reliable as it is less susceptible to manipulation compared to net profit figures [10][10]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Despite high valuations, some analysts believe that strong earnings growth could justify these levels, suggesting that high valuations may become the "new normal." This perspective is supported by the observation that large companies today have lower debt levels and more predictable cash flows compared to their counterparts from the 1980s and 1990s [12][12]. - The current market environment is characterized by a higher proportion of high-quality companies in the S&P 500, which have seen increased profitability and reduced earnings volatility. This shift may lead to a reevaluation of what constitutes acceptable valuation multiples in the current economic landscape [12][12].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential risks associated with high market valuations, particularly in light of recent comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell regarding valuation concerns and the sustainability of AI-related trades [1] Group 1: Market Valuation Indicators - The Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-Earnings (CAPE) ratio has reached a new high since the end of 2021, indicating elevated valuations that could signal potential market corrections [2] - The "Buffett Indicator," which compares the total market capitalization of U.S. stocks to the GDP, shows that the current market valuation is approximately 2.7 times the GDP, a level not seen since March 2001 [3] - The Price-to-Sales (P/S) ratio for the S&P 500 is at a record high of 3.12, suggesting that valuations based on revenue are also at elevated levels [5] Group 2: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Despite high valuations, some analysts believe that strong earnings growth could justify these levels, suggesting that high valuations may represent a "new normal" rather than a bubble [6] - The current economic environment features lower debt levels and reduced earnings volatility for large companies, which may support sustained profitability and higher valuations [6]