市场不是不怕，而是把恐惧变成定价。投资者理解了这一点， 才能更好把握2026年的"资本风口"。 作者：欧阳晓红 封图：图虫创意 即将过去的2025年，像一部"反经典理论"合订本。 这一年，美元大跌、欧元走强，日元加息后"不升反贬"；4月关税冲击一度把美股砸出深坑，恐慌 指数（VIX）冲上60，随后在流动性缓冲与仓位再平衡中迅速修复，标普500年内涨幅超过17%； 贵金属在"软着陆叙事"未彻底瓦解时逼近历史高位，国际黄金价格年内上涨逾70%，冲上4500美 元/盎司，白银的涨幅更猛；油价却偏弱，像是在给需求与供给预期泼冷水。 由此，一种更"金融化"的秩序显形：黑天鹅仍会飞来，但落地时往往被切割成可交易的"白天鹅碎 片"——提前对冲、结构性吸收，甚至被"波动率卖方"纳入风险预算与保证金管理。 市场不是不怕，而是把恐惧变成定价。投资者理解了这一点，才能更好把握2026年的"资本风 口"。 联博基金市场策略负责人李长风认为，尽管2025年不确定性因素密集，全球资本市场仍在"攀登 忧虑之墙"的过程中展现韧性。 复盘2025年，一个显著特征是"预测与现实的系统性错位"。 财经数据服务平台金十数据显示，截至2025年12月 ...

智通财经APP获悉，2025 年只剩几个交易日，可以肯定地说，股市又一次没有辜负投资者。截至 12 月 24 日收盘，广受关注的道琼斯工业平均指数、基准 标普 500 以及由成长股推动的纳斯达克综合指数已分别上涨 15%、18% 和 22%。 尽管投资者——包括华尔街分析师和评论员——普遍预计这股稳步攀升的势头将延续到新的一年，但并非所有人都如此乐观。 华尔街一位态度温和的批评者，正是美国最具影响力的政策制定者之一：美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔。 美联储主席鲍威尔点出一个无法再被掩盖的股市风险 通常，鲍威尔与其他联储理事都会避免直接评论股市表现。美联储的核心使命是制定货币政策，以实现最大就业与物价稳定的目标;而股市的涨跌波动，相 对于这些核心目标而言，只能处于次要考量地位。 话虽如此，任期将于2026年5月届满的鲍威尔近日在回应提问时，明确提到了股市估值对联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)政策制定的潜在影响。作为由12名成员 组成的决策机构(鲍威尔亦位列其中)，FOMC的核心职责包括调整联邦基金利率、执行公开市场操作(如买卖长期国债以调控市场收益率)，以实现最大就业 与物价稳定的货币政策目标。 鲍威尔表示："我们确实 ...

外汇市场方面，美元指数昨日收盘脱离日内低点，欧洲早盘时段进一步走高 0.3%，其中对日元的涨幅尤为显著。美国国债全期限收益率同步上 行，10 年期国债收益率上涨逾 2 个基点，至 4.17%。 大宗商品市场迎来一波久违的提振：受特朗普政府下令封锁委内瑞拉油轮运输的消息影响，西德克萨斯轻质原油（WTI）价格上涨 1.4%，有望终结 连续四日下跌的颓势。贵金属价格同样延续强势，黄金价格逼近 4381 美元的历史高点，白银价格刷新约 66 美元的纪录峰值，年内涨幅已高达惊人 的 130%。 市场表现 IC平台据悉，周二，备受市场期待的美国 10-11 月合并非农就业数据正式公布，但这份喜忧参半的报告并未推动市场出现明显波动，美股市场呈现 分化走势。标普 500 指数与道琼斯工业平均指数双双走低，分别下跌 0.2% 和 0.6%；而纳斯达克 100 指数逆势上涨 0.3%，这一涨幅主要由七大科技 龙头股的强势表现支撑。除亚马逊收平外，其余六只龙头股均实现上涨。 明日，美国 11 月消费者物价指数（CPI）数据即将出炉。尽管受 10 月部分数据缺失的影响，这份通胀报告的关注度或不及昨日的就业数据，但仍 值得重点关注。需 ...

All right. So, I think this is the question we're all trying to figure out. Does this hawkish cut, the potential of it at least, what does this mean for the markets and the idea that we're not quite clear on when we're going to get that next cut, if we do at all. >> Frank, I think the market is looking for more stimulus and if we're going to get this sort of hawkish cut, that's the widely expected outcome.But if there is no sort of roadmap forward for additional cuts uh heading into January, heading into uh ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market is expected to end November with declines, marking a deviation from historical trends, particularly in presidential election years [1] Market Performance - As of Wednesday's close, the S&P 500 index has decreased by 0.4%, the Dow Jones by 0.29%, and the Nasdaq by 2.15% [1] - The S&P 500 and Dow Jones have experienced six consecutive months of gains, while the Nasdaq has seen seven months of increases [1] Historical Context - Historically, the average gain for the S&P 500 in November since 1950 is 1.8% [1] - In presidential election years, the S&P 500 typically rises by 1.6% [1] - This year is noted as atypical for a presidential election year, suggesting future market movements may not follow historical patterns [1]

Group 1 - The U.S. stock market reached new historical highs driven by optimistic expectations of an upcoming interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, with the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, and Nasdaq Composite all setting closing records [1][4] - The bond market, in contrast, is signaling growing concerns about the economic outlook, as indicated by the drop in the 10-year Treasury yield, which fell below 4% for the first time since early April [4][5] - The August Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed an increase in goods prices due to tariff impacts, while service sector inflation remains above the Federal Reserve's ideal level, yet overall inflation is not expected to prevent a rate cut [4][5] Group 2 - The S&P 500 rose by 0.85%, the Dow increased by 1.36%, and the Nasdaq gained 0.72%, indicating strong market momentum despite expectations of a potential market correction [5] - The labor market is showing signs of weakness, with only 22,000 jobs added in August, and recent data revisions indicating a more challenging employment situation over the past year, which is a core reason for the Fed's potential rate cuts [5][6] - The actual tariff burden on U.S. consumers reached 17.7% in August, the highest level since 1934, posing challenges for the Federal Reserve in controlling inflation [5][6]

Core Viewpoint - The S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, and Nasdaq Composite are key stock market indexes that reflect the performance of the U.S. stock market, typically moving in tandem but with varying degrees of fluctuation [2] Group 1 - The S&P 500 index is designed to represent the performance of 500 large companies listed on stock exchanges in the United States [2] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index that includes 30 significant publicly traded companies [2] - The Nasdaq Composite index is heavily weighted towards technology and growth stocks, making it distinct from the other two indexes [2]

Group 1 - The S&P 500 Index has an average annual return of 10.26% since its inception in 1957, covering approximately 83% of the total market capitalization in the U.S. and over 50% of the global stock market [1] - The Nasdaq-100 Index has grown approximately 194 times since its launch in 1985, with an annualized return of 13.7%, and has shown a 30-year annualized return of 13.44% and an 18.56% return over the past 10 years [2] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average serves as a key indicator of the overall health of the economy and the market, comprising 30 large industrial companies from various sectors [2] Group 2 - The performance of the U.S. stock market in 2025 shows strong upward momentum, particularly among the top 30 stocks that have gained the most, which include companies with high market capitalization and dividend yields [3] - Investors are advised to focus on a diversified asset allocation strategy to maximize returns, with professional wealth management services available to assist in navigating market changes [3] - Rational investment and scientific decision-making are emphasized as crucial for future success in a complex and changing market environment [3]

Market Performance - The S&P 500 index reached a historical high, closing at 6466.59 points, up by 0.32% supported by strong industrial and financial stocks [2] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average outperformed the market, closing at 44922.27 points, up by 1.04%, driven by strong earnings from blue-chip stocks and renewed optimism about infrastructure spending [3] - The Russell 2000 index saw a significant rise of 1.98%, ending at 2328.06 points, benefiting from a rebound in cyclical sectors and better-than-expected regional bank earnings [5] Volatility and Yield - The VIX index decreased to 14.49, indicating the lowest market volatility in nearly a month, reflecting stable investor confidence amid interest rate cut expectations [6] - The 10-year Treasury yield fell to 4.24%, as traders anticipated a higher likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, boosting bond demand [6] Commodity Prices - WTI crude oil prices dropped to $62.65 per barrel, marking a second consecutive day of decline due to signs of slowing global demand and increasing U.S. inventories [7] - Gold futures rose to $3408.30 per ounce, supported by declining U.S. Treasury yields and a weaker dollar, which bolstered safe-haven demand [8] European Market - European stock markets saw gains, with the FTSE 100 up by 0.19% to 9165.23 points, DAX up by 0.67% to 24185.59 points, and CAC 40 up by 0.66% to 7804.97 points, driven by improved investor sentiment ahead of key U.S. economic data [9] Top Stock Movers - Kohl's stock surged by 9.55% after reporting quarterly sales that exceeded expectations and raising its full-year guidance [10] - Nektar Therapeutics rose by 9.49% following positive updates on its cancer treatment pipeline [11] - Peloton's stock increased by 7.02% due to optimistic user growth and progress in cost-cutting measures [12] - Robinhood's stock fell by 4.86% due to declining trading volumes and warnings from analysts about slowing retail investor activity [13] - General Electric's stock decreased by 3.74% despite beating earnings expectations, as it provided cautious forward guidance [14] - Oracle's stock dropped by 3.58% amid concerns over slowing cloud revenue growth after a downgrade from brokers [15]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's Daly indicates that the timing for interest rate cuts is approaching, with the likelihood of more than two cuts this year being higher [1] - South Africa's trade and foreign affairs department warns that the 30% tariffs imposed by the US on South African goods could severely impact the economy, potentially leading to the loss of approximately 30,000 jobs [2] - The Bank of Japan's meeting minutes reveal that some members are considering the possibility of resuming interest rate hikes once trade issues stabilize [3] Group 2 - The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 585.06 points, closing at 44,173.64, an increase of 1.34% [4] - COMEX gold futures increased by 0.85% to $3,428.60 per ounce, while silver futures rose by 1.40% to $37.45 per ounce [5] - The 2-year US Treasury yield fell by 2.70 basis points to 3.671%, while the 10-year yield decreased by 2.35 basis points to 4.196% [5]