Group 1 - The upcoming inflation trend data is expected to test the upward momentum of the US stock market, with some investors anticipating a potential pullback after the market reached record highs [1] - The S&P 500 index has risen over 8% year-to-date, nearing historical peaks, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite has also hit new highs [1] - Analysts from Deutsche Bank and Morgan Stanley indicate that market valuations have been pushed to historical highs after a nearly uninterrupted rise over the past four months, suggesting a possible market correction [1] Group 2 - The July Consumer Price Index (CPI) report is set to be released next week, which could lead to market volatility, especially if inflation exceeds expectations [2] - Economists predict a year-over-year increase of 2.8% in the July CPI, and investors are closely monitoring the impact of tariffs on imported goods [2] - Following weak employment data, there has been a rise in bets on Federal Reserve rate cuts, with market expectations indicating at least two cuts this year [2] Group 3 - If the CPI increase exceeds expectations, it may pose risks to the prevailing narrative, potentially causing the Federal Reserve to hesitate on rate cuts [3] - The impact of higher tariffs on the economy remains a significant concern, despite the stock market reaching new highs [3] - Recent tariff increases have raised the average import tariff level in the US to its highest in a century, with new tariffs on semiconductor chips and pharmaceuticals announced [3]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's Daly indicates that the timing for interest rate cuts is approaching, with the likelihood of more than two cuts this year being higher [1] - South Africa's trade and foreign affairs department warns that the 30% tariffs imposed by the US on South African goods could severely impact the economy, potentially leading to the loss of approximately 30,000 jobs [2] - The Bank of Japan's meeting minutes reveal that some members are considering the possibility of resuming interest rate hikes once trade issues stabilize [3] Group 2 - The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 585.06 points, closing at 44,173.64, an increase of 1.34% [4] - COMEX gold futures increased by 0.85% to $3,428.60 per ounce, while silver futures rose by 1.40% to $37.45 per ounce [5] - The 2-year US Treasury yield fell by 2.70 basis points to 3.671%, while the 10-year yield decreased by 2.35 basis points to 4.196% [5]

Group 1 - Gold has outperformed the S&P 500 index over the past 20 years, with a return of 616% compared to the S&P 500's 421% [1] - As of Wednesday, gold has increased nearly 29% since the beginning of 2025, while the S&P 500 has only risen 8.1% this year [3] - The recent strong performance of gold is attributed to concerns over government debt levels and a weakening dollar, leading to increased demand for alternative currency assets [3][4] Group 2 - Gold has historically been a hedge against crises, but since 2020, it has shown strong performance even during stable market periods, indicating a new paradigm [4] - The relative performance of gold has fluctuated over the past 20 years, with exceptional performance from 2005 to 2014 due to low confidence in the financial system [7] - Many countries are now including gold in their foreign exchange reserves as part of a long-term strategy to diversify away from dollar-denominated assets [7] Group 3 - The SPDR Gold Shares ETF has attracted over $8 billion in inflows this year, despite a recent 1.2% decline [7] - The company believes that gold remains a valuable addition to diversified investment portfolios [8]

周三，美股表现稳健，标普500指数变化不大，再度逼近其历史高点，引发市场广泛关注。 与此同时，纳斯达克综合指数上涨0.3%，道琼斯工业平均指数则下跌0.3%。 | 美股指数 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 道琼斯 | 纳斯达克 | 标普500 | | 42982.43 | 19973.55 | 6092.16 | | -106.59 -0.25% | +61.02 +0.31% | -0.02 0.00% | | 中国金龙指数 | 纳指100期货 | 标普500期货 | | 7380.73 | 22472.50 | 6146.00 | | -44.55 -0.60% +59.75 +0.27% -0.25 -0.25 - 0.00% | | | | 美国国债 | | | | 3个月期 | 10年期 | 2年期 | | 4.288 | 4.291 | 3.779 | | △ 1.55bp | ▼ 0.59bp | ▼ 4.02bp | 此前一日，随着市场押注伊朗与以色列之间的停火协议有望持续，油价大幅回落，标普500单日上涨逾1%。油价连续两日暴跌， 成为市场反弹的重要推力，其中美国西德 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market indices have retraced some of their gains, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite turning negative during the day, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average is up by 0.2% [1] Group 1 - The S&P 500 index has shown a reversal in its upward trend, indicating potential volatility in the market [1] - The Nasdaq Composite index has also experienced a decline, reflecting broader market concerns [1] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average has managed to maintain a slight increase, suggesting some resilience among certain sectors [1]

Group 1 - The S&P 500 index has returned above 6000 points for the first time since February, indicating a significant recovery in market risk appetite [8][9] - The overall performance of major global asset classes was mixed, with NYMEX platinum (+11.64%) showing the largest increase, while the Japanese yen against the RMB saw the largest decline (-1.05%) [30][41] - The U.S. non-farm payrolls for May increased by 139,000, slightly above the expected 130,000, while the unemployment rate remained at 4.2%, aligning with market expectations [8][9] Group 2 - The global equity markets exhibited varied performance, with the Korean Composite Stock Price Index rising by 4.24%, while the Nikkei 225 saw a decline of 0.59% [33][45] - In the U.S. equity market, the communication services sector experienced the highest gain at +2.96%, while the consumer discretionary sector faced the largest drop at -0.85% [40] - The major commodities market showed mixed results, with NYMEX platinum leading the gains, while CBOT corn recorded the largest decline at -0.34% [47][49] Group 3 - The report highlights the importance of upcoming economic data, particularly the June CPI data, which could influence interest rate expectations and further impact technology stocks [8][9] - The Federal Reserve's internal discussions reflect a cautious dovish tone, with officials indicating the possibility of rate cuts later in the year [9][10] - The report tracks significant economic indicators, including the ISM manufacturing PMI for May at 48.5, which is below both the previous value and market expectations [8][9]

美国股市涨幅扩大， 纳斯达克综合指数上涨1%。 ...

Group 1 - BRICS countries called for a joint resistance against unilateralism and trade protectionism during a special meeting, with China criticizing the US's "reciprocal tariff" policy as harmful to the rights of nations and expressing willingness to cooperate with BRICS members to address the impact of US measures on global trade order [1] - The US House of Representatives' fundraising committee passed a multi-trillion dollar tax cut proposal from the Trump administration, with negotiations on the bill's details ongoing, aiming for a vote in the House by the end of the month [1] - Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Jefferson noted that tariffs and uncertainty could suppress economic growth and raise inflation, but monetary policy is ready to adjust as needed, emphasizing the increased policy uncertainty and unclear impact of tariffs on prices [1] Group 2 - European Central Bank regulators required some Eurozone banks to assess scenarios of dollar demand pressure, simulating operations without reliance on the Federal Reserve for dollar supply, reflecting concerns over the uncertainty of dollar supply under the Trump administration [2] - Recent discussions between US and South Korean Treasury officials on exchange rate policies sparked market speculation about Trump potentially adopting a "trade for exchange rate" strategy to induce dollar depreciation; however, insiders revealed that the US has not made exchange rate commitments a condition for tariff reductions in global trade negotiations [2] Group 3 - The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.21% to 42,051.06 points, while the S&P 500 rose by 0.1% to 5,892.58 points, and the Nasdaq Composite increased by 0.72% to 19,146.81 points [3] - COMEX gold futures dropped by 2.07% to $3,180.70 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures fell by 2.15% to $32.39 per ounce [3] - The main contract for US oil decreased by 1.23% to $62.89 per barrel, and the main contract for Brent crude oil also fell by 1.23% to $65.81 per barrel [3] - The 2-year US Treasury yield rose by 4.65 basis points to 4.042%, the 5-year yield increased by 6.73 basis points to 4.162%, the 10-year yield went up by 6.93 basis points to 4.534%, and the 30-year yield climbed by 6.57 basis points to 4.971% [3] - The US dollar index increased by 0.10% to 101.08, with the euro down by 0.09% against the dollar at 1.1175, the British pound down by 0.32% at 1.3262, and the Australian dollar down by 0.64% at 0.6429 [3]

Group 1 - The S&P 500 index experienced a significant increase of 14% in the month following President Trump's "buy" recommendation on April 9, after a prior drop due to tariff announcements [1][3] - This increase represents the largest gain in the S&P 500 during Trump's presidency, excluding the market rebound during the COVID-19 pandemic [3] - Following Trump's second stock-buying suggestion, the Nasdaq Composite Index rose nearly 4% and the S&P 500 increased by nearly 3% after the announcement of temporary tariff reductions between the US and China [3] Group 2 - Trump's social media posts have become essential reading for global investors, as his presidency has been characterized by frequent tweets and threats regarding tariffs and sanctions against major trading partners [3] - The S&P 500 index had previously dropped 12% over four days due to concerns about a global trade war before Trump announced a 90-day delay on tariffs for most countries [3]

文/曹萌 3月6日，美元指数逼近104关口，点位创2024年11月以来新低，而自本周起， 美元指数已连续三 日大幅下跌，跌幅超过3%。反观离岸人民币（USD/CNH），升值不足1%。 东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青表示，当前汇市存在人民币汇率波动幅度显著低于美元波动幅度的一般 模式，无论是在升值还是在贬值过程中。这会带动CFETS等三大一篮子人民币汇率指数保持在稳中 偏强状态，进而体现监管层"保持人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上的基本稳定"的控制目标。 01 下跌的不止美元 近日，中美资本市场发生了乾坤大挪移，曾在中国资本市场上演的股债汇三杀戏码，如今来到了具有 200多年历史的美国资本市场。 具体来看，美元指数自3月3日起，已连续三日大幅下行，点位从107上方逼近104，跌幅超过3%。 而汇率走势与宏观经济情况息息相关，数据显示，近期美国制造业活动陷入停滞，通胀压力持续升 温，1月消费者支出环比下降0.2%，贸易赤字扩大至982亿美元，初请失业金人数突破23万大关。 而亚特兰大联储模型显示，美国一季度GDP或萎缩2.825%，创2019年以来最差表现。 东方金诚研究发展部高级副总监白雪表示，近期美元指数大幅下跌与多项 ...