Economic Impact - The White House economic advisor Hassett stated that the government "shutdown" could have a far greater impact on the U.S. economy than previously expected, potentially causing long-term damage to government efficiency and leading to a slowdown in Q4 GDP growth [1] - U.S. Treasury Secretary Basant indicated that if the "shutdown" continues, economic growth in Q4 could be halved [1] Federal Reserve Insights - Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Jefferson suggested that the Fed should be more cautious in future policy actions as interest rates are closer to neutral levels [2] - New York Fed President Williams mentioned that the Fed may soon need to expand its balance sheet through asset purchases to meet liquidity needs, although this does not indicate a change in monetary policy stance [2] - St. Louis Fed President Bullard projected that monetary policy is in a moderately tight to neutral range, with 50 to 75 basis points of policy adjustment space remaining if rates decline further [2] Consumer Confidence - The preliminary consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan for November is at 50.3, marking the lowest level since June 2022 [3] Global Market Dynamics - The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 0.16% to 46,987.1 points, while the S&P 500 increased by 0.13% to 6,728.8 points. The Nasdaq Composite fell by 0.21% to 23,004.54 points [4] - COMEX gold futures rose by 0.42% to $4,007.8 per ounce, and silver futures increased by 0.57% to $48.225 per ounce [5] Oil and Bond Market - The main contract for U.S. oil rose by 0.69% to $59.84 per barrel, while Brent crude increased by 0.47% to $63.68 per barrel [6] - The 2-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by 0.43 basis points to 3.560%, the 5-year yield increased by 0.52 basis points to 3.682%, the 10-year yield rose by 1.54 basis points to 4.097%, and the 30-year yield increased by 2.04 basis points to 4.699% [6]

Core Insights - The article highlights the significant performance of gold as an investment compared to the Nasdaq Composite and Bitcoin, suggesting that investing in gold would have been more beneficial in the year-to-date period ending in October [1] Investment Performance - Gold has shown a strong performance, with a notable increase in value, while both the Nasdaq Composite and Bitcoin have underperformed in comparison [1] - The article implies that a hypothetical investment of $10,000 in gold would have yielded better returns than similar investments in the Nasdaq or Bitcoin ETFs [1]

Group 1 - The U.S. Senate failed to pass a funding bill for the 11th time, with a vote of 50 in favor and 43 against, not reaching the required 60 votes [1] - The U.S. National Nuclear Security Administration has begun mandatory furloughs for most employees, marking the first time this has occurred since its establishment [1] - The U.S. and Australia signed an agreement to enhance cooperation on rare earths and critical minerals, aiming to streamline approval processes for mining and processing facilities [1] Group 2 - Argentina's central bank announced a $20 billion currency swap agreement with the U.S. Treasury [2] - The Bank of Korea has not considered a currency swap with the U.S. Treasury, according to its governor [3] Group 3 - The CFETS RMB exchange rate index fell by 0.24% to 97.08, while the BIS currency basket RMB exchange rate index decreased by 0.36% to 103.07 [5] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 1.12% to 46,706.58 points, and the S&P 500 increased by 1.07% to 6,735.13 points [5] Group 4 - COMEX gold futures increased by 3.82% to $4,374.30 per ounce, and silver futures rose by 2.59% to $51.40 per ounce [6] - U.S. oil futures fell by 0.38% to $56.93 per barrel, while Brent crude oil futures decreased by 0.57% to $60.94 per barrel [7]

Group 1 - The three major U.S. stock indices turned positive on October 17, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising by 0.47% [1] - The S&P 500 index increased by 0.19% [1] - The Nasdaq Composite index saw a gain of 0.12% [1]

Market Performance - The Dow reached its highest levels on record, increasing by 405 points, or 0.9% [1] - The S&P 500 also hit record highs, rising by 0.3% [1] - The Nasdaq Composite experienced a slight increase, with all three indices needing to close higher to set fresh closing records [1] Economic Indicators - The ISM's services purchasing managers index (PMI) fell to a reading of 50 in September, down from 52 in August [2] - Economists had anticipated the PMI to remain at 52, indicating a discrepancy between expectations and actual performance [2]

Group 1 - The U.S. stock market reached new historical highs driven by optimistic expectations of an upcoming interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, with the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, and Nasdaq Composite all setting closing records [1][4] - The bond market, in contrast, is signaling growing concerns about the economic outlook, as indicated by the drop in the 10-year Treasury yield, which fell below 4% for the first time since early April [4][5] - The August Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed an increase in goods prices due to tariff impacts, while service sector inflation remains above the Federal Reserve's ideal level, yet overall inflation is not expected to prevent a rate cut [4][5] Group 2 - The S&P 500 rose by 0.85%, the Dow increased by 1.36%, and the Nasdaq gained 0.72%, indicating strong market momentum despite expectations of a potential market correction [5] - The labor market is showing signs of weakness, with only 22,000 jobs added in August, and recent data revisions indicating a more challenging employment situation over the past year, which is a core reason for the Fed's potential rate cuts [5][6] - The actual tariff burden on U.S. consumers reached 17.7% in August, the highest level since 1934, posing challenges for the Federal Reserve in controlling inflation [5][6]

Core Viewpoint - The S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, and Nasdaq Composite are key stock market indexes that reflect the performance of the U.S. stock market, typically moving in tandem but with varying degrees of fluctuation [2] Group 1 - The S&P 500 index is designed to represent the performance of 500 large companies listed on stock exchanges in the United States [2] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index that includes 30 significant publicly traded companies [2] - The Nasdaq Composite index is heavily weighted towards technology and growth stocks, making it distinct from the other two indexes [2]

Market Insights - President Trump plans to appeal the global tariff ruling to the U.S. Supreme Court, citing an economic emergency in the U.S. He warns that a potential loss could lead to unprecedented market shocks [1] - Nearly 600 economists signed an open letter warning that the potential dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook could threaten the independence of the Fed and erode trust in the U.S. financial system [1] - The ISM manufacturing index for August rose slightly to 48.7 but remains below the market expectation of 49, marking the sixth consecutive month below the neutral line [3] Economic Indicators - Japan's CPI for August increased by 1.7%, with the growth rate narrowing by 0.4 percentage points, the lowest since November of the previous year [4] - Eurozone's CPI for August rose by 2.1% year-on-year, while core CPI slightly decreased to 2.3%. Service prices saw a notable slowdown, increasing by 3.1% [3] Global Market Dynamics - The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.55% to 45,295.81 points, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite dropped by 0.69% and 0.82%, respectively [5] - Gold futures on COMEX rose by 1.51% to $3,599.5 per ounce, reaching a historical high [5] - U.S. oil futures increased by 1.56% to $65.62 per barrel, and Brent crude rose by 1.39% to $69.10 per barrel [6] Bond Market - The yield on 30-year German bonds reached its highest level since 2011, while French 30-year bond yields hit a new high since 2009 [7] - U.S. Treasury yields increased across various maturities, with the 10-year yield rising by 3.50 basis points to 4.260% [7] Currency Movements - The U.S. Dollar Index rose by 0.66% to 98.32, with the Euro and British Pound both declining against the dollar [8]

Group 1 - Trump had a 40-minute phone call with Putin, discussing support for direct negotiations between Russia and Ukraine [1] - Trump held a multilateral meeting with European leaders, including the President of Ukraine and heads of various European nations [1] - Indian Prime Minister Modi plans to reform the Goods and Services Tax in response to potential U.S. tariffs on Indian goods [1] Group 2 - Fitch Ratings confirmed New Zealand's rating at "AA+" with a stable outlook [1] Group 3 - The Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased by 0.08% to 44,911.82 points, while the S&P 500 fell by 0.01% to 6,449.15 points [2] - The Nasdaq Composite increased by 0.03% to 21,629.77 points [2] Group 4 - COMEX gold futures fell by 0.14% to $3,378.00 per ounce, while silver futures rose by 0.24% to $38.07 per ounce [3] Group 5 - U.S. oil futures rose by 0.97% to $62.58 per barrel, and Brent crude increased by 0.97% to $66.49 per barrel [4] - The U.S. dollar index increased by 0.31% to 98.16 [4]

Group 1 - The upcoming inflation trend data is expected to test the upward momentum of the US stock market, with some investors anticipating a potential pullback after the market reached record highs [1] - The S&P 500 index has risen over 8% year-to-date, nearing historical peaks, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite has also hit new highs [1] - Analysts from Deutsche Bank and Morgan Stanley indicate that market valuations have been pushed to historical highs after a nearly uninterrupted rise over the past four months, suggesting a possible market correction [1] Group 2 - The July Consumer Price Index (CPI) report is set to be released next week, which could lead to market volatility, especially if inflation exceeds expectations [2] - Economists predict a year-over-year increase of 2.8% in the July CPI, and investors are closely monitoring the impact of tariffs on imported goods [2] - Following weak employment data, there has been a rise in bets on Federal Reserve rate cuts, with market expectations indicating at least two cuts this year [2] Group 3 - If the CPI increase exceeds expectations, it may pose risks to the prevailing narrative, potentially causing the Federal Reserve to hesitate on rate cuts [3] - The impact of higher tariffs on the economy remains a significant concern, despite the stock market reaching new highs [3] - Recent tariff increases have raised the average import tariff level in the US to its highest in a century, with new tariffs on semiconductor chips and pharmaceuticals announced [3]