据知情人士向央视新闻透露及文件显示，英国、法国和德国已联合起草并提交了一份修改后的"和平计 划"，旨在反制美方此前的提议，并核心聚焦于为乌克兰提供实质性的安全保障。 该方案明确拒绝了在此前美方提案中关于限制基辅武装力量规模及进行领土让步的条款，标志着大西洋 两岸在如何结束冲突的路径上存在显著分歧。 这份为日内瓦谈判准备的文件提议，乌克兰应从美国获得类似于北约第五条款（Article 5）的共同防御 安全保障。据彭博报道，欧洲盟友坚持认为，任何关于领土交换的讨论只能在战争沿当前接触线停止后 才能进行，且强烈反对按照莫斯科的要求割让东部未被占领的领土。这表明欧洲试图在特朗普总统推动 的快速协议框架下，为基辅争取更有利的安全底线。 在经济层面，该提案与美方构想也存在根本性冲突。欧洲方面反对美国提出的动用在西方（主要是欧盟 境内）冻结的俄罗斯资产进行盈利性投资的计划，坚持这些资产必须用于乌克兰的重建与赔偿，直至俄 罗斯全额支付战争损失。这一立场的强硬转化，意味着投资者关注的"和平红利"及制裁解除路径将面临 更为复杂的谈判博弈，市场对于地缘政治风险快速出清的预期或需重新校准。 类北约第五条款的防御承诺 据彭博援引知情人 ...

Group 1 - International oil prices experienced fluctuations due to concerns over potential disruptions in Russian oil exports, with prices closing higher on August 18. The price of light crude oil for September delivery rose by $0.62 to $63.42 per barrel, a 0.99% increase, while Brent crude for October delivery increased by $0.75 to $66.60 per barrel, a 1.14% rise [1] - Ole Hansen, the global commodity strategy head at Saxo Bank, expressed skepticism that the oil market has fully priced in the "peace dividend," which could lead to further declines in oil and European natural gas prices [1] - The upcoming meeting between U.S. President Trump, Ukrainian President Zelensky, and European leaders is marked by significant differences in positions, with Trump stating that Ukraine cannot reclaim Crimea or join NATO, while Zelensky indicated readiness for a trilateral meeting with U.S. and Russian leaders [1] Group 2 - Peter Navarro, a senior advisor at the White House, called for India to stop purchasing Russian oil, highlighting India's role in converting sanctioned Russian oil into high-value export commodities, which provides Russia with necessary dollars [2] - The criticism from Navarro regarding India's oil purchases has led to increased market buying activity, reflecting ongoing concerns about energy trade being affected by trade and diplomatic tensions, even as prospects for peace in Ukraine appear brighter [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the contrasting views of major investment banks regarding the future of gold prices, with Citigroup warning of a potential end to the gold bull market, while Goldman Sachs maintains a bullish target of $4,000 per ounce [1] Group 1: Investment Bank Perspectives - Citigroup issues a warning that the gold bull market may be coming to an end due to potential selling pressure from the funds [1] - Goldman Sachs supports a target price of $4,000 for gold, suggesting that central bank demand could offset the effects of a "peace dividend" [1] Group 2: Market Signals - There is a significant risk signal indicated by the dollar short positions reaching a 19-year peak, suggesting a potential for a historic short squeeze in the market [1]