Group 1 - International oil prices experienced fluctuations due to concerns over potential disruptions in Russian oil exports, with prices closing higher on August 18. The price of light crude oil for September delivery rose by $0.62 to $63.42 per barrel, a 0.99% increase, while Brent crude for October delivery increased by $0.75 to $66.60 per barrel, a 1.14% rise [1] - Ole Hansen, the global commodity strategy head at Saxo Bank, expressed skepticism that the oil market has fully priced in the "peace dividend," which could lead to further declines in oil and European natural gas prices [1] - The upcoming meeting between U.S. President Trump, Ukrainian President Zelensky, and European leaders is marked by significant differences in positions, with Trump stating that Ukraine cannot reclaim Crimea or join NATO, while Zelensky indicated readiness for a trilateral meeting with U.S. and Russian leaders [1] Group 2 - Peter Navarro, a senior advisor at the White House, called for India to stop purchasing Russian oil, highlighting India's role in converting sanctioned Russian oil into high-value export commodities, which provides Russia with necessary dollars [2] - The criticism from Navarro regarding India's oil purchases has led to increased market buying activity, reflecting ongoing concerns about energy trade being affected by trade and diplomatic tensions, even as prospects for peace in Ukraine appear brighter [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the contrasting views of major investment banks regarding the future of gold prices, with Citigroup warning of a potential end to the gold bull market, while Goldman Sachs maintains a bullish target of $4,000 per ounce [1] Group 1: Investment Bank Perspectives - Citigroup issues a warning that the gold bull market may be coming to an end due to potential selling pressure from the funds [1] - Goldman Sachs supports a target price of $4,000 for gold, suggesting that central bank demand could offset the effects of a "peace dividend" [1] Group 2: Market Signals - There is a significant risk signal indicated by the dollar short positions reaching a 19-year peak, suggesting a potential for a historic short squeeze in the market [1]