积水成渊，聚沙成塔，做积累的事。 2025年对冲研投公众号累计发布560篇文章， 我们从 中精选出69篇精华文章，希望在您需要的时候，可以帮助到您。 未来每年，我们都会将相关优秀文章汇总整理于此，精彩待续...... 01 宏观经济研究篇 #2025年精选 全球市场颤抖：美联储或将迎来"鹰派"新掌门——凯文·沃什 或许是当前最权威的宏观分析：卡尼达沃斯演讲（文末附全文） 从抢油到夺岛：解析特朗普的"唐罗主义" 如果鲍威尔选择留下来继续硬刚呢？ 大宗商品资源争夺战：东西半球划洋而治？ 5000字深度报告 | "反内卷"与"供给侧"改革底层逻辑是康波大周期！ 供给侧改革2.0来了吗？ 让美元的归美元，美债的归美债 以伊战争中让世界惶恐的霍尔木兹海峡 世界新秩序 关于中国经济的重大转折 对等关税的"表"与"里" Trump就职典礼：布局之招 抓捕马杜罗，特朗普意欲何为？ "十五五"的新提法 关税战风云再起，怎么看？ 中美周期共振or背离？ 02 商品期货研究篇 #2025年精选 当商品交易变成"故事会"：谁在主导价格？ 在贪婪与恐惧中轮回：金银暴跌背后，如何避免成为市场叙事切换时的代价？ 关于农产品对商品牛市的追赶 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Sugar consumption has seasonally recovered due to the demand for summer cold drinks, and sugar imports have increased significantly recently due to the widening price difference between domestic and foreign markets. However, the total annual import volume is still expected to be within the expected range. In July, extreme precipitation in Yunnan and Inner Mongolia may have affected sugar cane and sugar beet crops, and the potential impact on sugar production needs continuous monitoring. [1][2] - Most cotton - growing areas in China are at the peak of flowering, and some areas in Xinjiang have entered the boll - opening stage, with the overall growth progress ahead of previous years. In August, cotton in Xinjiang and the Yangtze River Basin is at high risk of heat damage. Currently, the commercial inventory of cotton is decreasing, and the peak season for cotton textile is approaching, so cotton prices are supported. [1][2] - The recommended strategy is to mainly wait and see. [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Information - Nanning sugar spot price is 5920.0 yuan, Kunming sugar spot price is 5845.0 yuan, and Xinjiang cotton spot price is 15250.0 yuan. [1] Market - The closing price of US sugar is 16.44, with a change of 0.12%. The closing price of US cotton is 66.65, with a change of - 0.03%. [1] Supply and Demand - Sugar: Driven by summer cold drink demand, sugar consumption has seasonally recovered, and recent sugar imports have increased significantly due to the widening price difference between domestic and foreign markets. [1] - Cotton: In August, high temperatures and low precipitation in Xinjiang and the Yangtze River Basin pose a high risk of heat damage to cotton. The current commercial inventory of cotton is decreasing, and the peak season for cotton textile is approaching, providing support for cotton prices. [1] Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts are 14906.0, with a change of - 2.67%. Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts are 6859.0, with a change of - 1.69%. [1] Data Quick View External Market Quotes - The price of US sugar increased from 16.42 on August 26, 2025, to 16.44 on August 27, 2025, with a change of 0.12%. The price of US cotton decreased from 66.67 to 66.65, with a change of - 0.03%. [3] Spot Prices - The price of sugar in Nanning decreased from 5950.0 yuan to 5920.0 yuan, with a change of - 0.50%. The price of sugar in Kunming decreased from 5860.0 yuan to 5845.0 yuan, with a change of - 0.26%. The cotton index 328 changed from 3281 to 3280, with a change of 0.05%. The price of cotton in Xinjiang increased from 15100.0 yuan to 15250.0 yuan, with a change of 0.99%. [3] Spread Quick View - SR01 - 05 increased from 33.0 to 34.0, with a change of 3.03%. SR05 - 09 increased from - 79.0 to - 45.0, with a change of - 43.04%. SR09 - 01 decreased from 46.0 to 11.0, with a change of - 76.09%. CF01 - 05 remained unchanged at 45.0, with a change of 0.00%. CF05 - 09 decreased from 275.0 to 270.0, with a change of - 1.82%. CF09 - 01 increased from - 320.0 to - 315.0, with a change of - 1.56%. [3] - The basis of sugar 01 decreased from 228.0 to 225.0, with a change of - 1.32%. The basis of sugar 05 decreased from 261.0 to 259.0, with a change of - 0.77%. The basis of sugar 09 increased from 182.0 to 214.0, with a change of 17.58%. The basis of cotton 01 increased from 1234.0 to 1267.0, with a change of 2.67%. The basis of cotton 05 increased from 1279.0 to 1312.0, with a change of 2.58%. The basis of cotton 09 increased from 1554.0 to 1582.0, with a change of 1.80%. [3] Import Prices - The price of cotton cotlookA remained unchanged at 78.9 on August 26 and 27, 2025, with a change of 0.00%. [3] Profit Margin - The profit of sugar imports remained unchanged at 1516.0 on August 26 and 27, 2025, with a change of 0.00%. [3] Options - For SR601C5600, the implied volatility is 0.0854, and the historical volatility of the futures underlying SR601 is 6.39. For SR601P5600, the implied volatility is 0.0837. For CF601C14000, the implied volatility is 0.1079, and the historical volatility of the futures underlying CF601 is 5.66. For CF601P14000, the implied volatility is 0.1044. [3] Inventory Warehouse Receipts - The number of sugar warehouse receipts decreased from 15315.0 on August 26, 2025, to 14906.0 on August 27, 2025, with a change of - 2.67%. The number of cotton warehouse receipts decreased from 6977.0 to 6859.0, with a change of - 1.69%. [3]