1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic soybean market is running steadily with a slightly stalemate in prices and limited overall changes. The price of soybeans in the Northeast region has a clear bottom support under the state reserve purchase, while in the southern producing areas, the tight circulation of high - quality soybeans and farmers' reluctance to sell support the price. The demand side is stable, with the peak - season characteristics emerging, but the terminal replenishment is completed, and the procurement is mainly for regular needs [3]. - In the futures market, the weekly price of soybean No. 1 adjusted downward. The main 2601 contract fell 2.51% weekly, and the trading volume increased while the position decreased significantly. The CBOT soybean futures price fell after reaching a one - year high, and the market is concerned about China's procurement trends and South American weather changes [3]. - In the long - term, the price of domestic soybeans is expected to end the three - year adjustment, break through the bottom - range oscillation, and the price center may move up. The high - quality and high - price phenomenon will continue, and the price of high - protein soybeans will be supported by rigid demand [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - **Spot Market**: The domestic soybean market is stable, with prices in the Northeast region supported by state reserve purchase, and in the south, high - quality soybeans and farmers' reluctance to sell support prices. The demand side is stable, but the over - high price of traders suppresses procurement willingness [3]. - **Futures Market**: The soybean No. 1 futures price adjusted downward weekly, with the main 2601 contract falling 2.51%. The trading volume increased, and the position decreased significantly. The CBOT soybean futures price fell after reaching a high [3]. - **Trading Logic**: In the short - term, the spot price in the Northeast is stagnant, and the futures price is affected by the decline of US soybean prices and the pressure of hedging profits. In the long - term, the supply of high - protein soybeans will decrease, and the price is expected to rise. The new - season supply pressure is dispersed, but pay attention to the phased selling pressure at the end of the year [6]. 3.1.2 Trading Strategy Recommendations - **Trend Judgement**: Bullish trend with short - term correction. - **Technical Viewpoint**: The reduction of long positions leads to the decline of futures prices. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Overall, stay on the sidelines. If there is an entry in the hedging of low - price inventory at high prices last week, it can be held. - **Basis Strategy**: The spot price is stagnant, the futures price falls, and the basis strengthens. Partial hedging at high positions shows the hedging effect. - **Spread Strategy**: The change of the spread between near and far months is not obvious, and it is recommended to stay on the sidelines [6]. 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - **Inventory Management**: For planting subjects, when the new soybeans are harvested in autumn, the selling pressure is high. It is recommended to lock in the planting profit by short - selling soybean No. 1 futures (A2601) with a 30% hedging ratio when the price is above 4100 (hold cautiously). - **Procurement Management**: For those worried about the rise of raw material prices, it is recommended to wait for the futures price to fall and then enter the market for procurement, mainly focusing on forward procurement management (A2603, A2605) [7]. 3.2 Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Concerns 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: State reserve purchase of new - season domestic soybeans at certain prices, and the successful auction of 35,692 tons of domestic soybeans on November 18 [9]. - **Negative Information**: China's purchase of 14 ships of US soybeans, and the decline of trading activity in the spot market and the significant decline of the futures price [9]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - China's import of US soybeans news. - Whether the selling pressure of the spot price actively emerges. - Whether the state reserve purchase points further increase [12]. 3.3 Chapter 3: Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - **Unilateral Trend and Capital Movement**: The price of soybean No. 1 adjusted downward weekly. The main 2601 contract fell 2.51%, and the trading volume increased while the position decreased significantly. The registered warehouse receipts increased to 12,832 lots [10]. - **Basis and Spread Structure**: The basis strengthened as the spot price was stagnant and the futures price fell. The spread structure between near and far months changed little [16][20]. 3.4 Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis - **Upstream and Downstream Profits**: The planting profit of soybeans in Heilongjiang has increased significantly, especially for high - protein soybeans. The profit of mid - stream trading enterprises is uncertain, and the downstream demand for high - protein soybeans is expected to remain strong. The crushing profit has weakened [33]. 3.5 Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Supply Side and Deduction - The supply of high - protein soybeans will decrease, and the supply of medium - and low - protein soybeans will increase. The soybean price is expected to be firm, and the pattern of high - quality and high - price will continue [37]. 3.5.2 Demand Side and Deduction - The edible consumption market of domestic soybeans is expected to be active, and the demand is mainly for high - protein soybeans. The oil - bean demand depends on the price of oil and meal. The overall price of domestic soybeans is expected to stop falling, and the low point may have been reached in early October [37].

Core Viewpoint - The soybean production in Heilongjiang is experiencing an increase in planting area and stable yield, while the market faces challenges with low opening prices and trade dynamics affecting pricing strategies [4][7][9]. Group 1: Planting Area and Yield - The soybean planting area in Heilongjiang has increased significantly due to factors such as planting profitability, policy subsidies, and crop rotation requirements, with eastern regions seeing a 10% increase and western regions a 7% increase compared to last year [3][4]. - The overall soybean yield is expected to remain stable compared to last year, with reports indicating yields of 400 to 560 jin/mu in various regions [3][4]. Group 2: Cost and Subsidies - The cost of soybean cultivation has decreased, primarily due to a drop in land rental prices, which are now around 11,000 yuan/hectare, a 10% decrease from last year [5][6]. - After subsidies, the effective cost of soybean cultivation in Heilongjiang ranges from 5,500 to 9,239 yuan/hectare, translating to approximately 1.5 to 1.7 yuan/jin for production costs [6]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The opening price for the new season's soybeans in Heilongjiang has shown a downward trend, with current purchase prices ranging from 1.8 to 2.0 yuan/jin, influenced by low protein content and expectations of increased production [7][9]. - Domestic soybean consumption is stable, with food processing and oil extraction being the primary sectors, while the increase in domestic soybean production is mainly absorbed by the oil extraction sector [8][9]. Group 4: Trade and Pricing - Trade tensions have led to increased tariffs on U.S. soybeans, prompting China to source more soybeans from South America, particularly Brazil, where prices are competitive but do not offer a significant advantage over domestic soybeans [8][9]. - The pricing dynamics for domestic soybeans are influenced by the balance between production increases and market demand, with potential upward pressure on prices if South American imports decrease [9]. Group 5: Industry Operations - The soybean processing industry in China is characterized by a preference for non-GMO soybeans, with processing operations heavily reliant on profit margins, leading to sporadic operational schedules based on market conditions [10][11]. - The trading sector exhibits flexibility in purchasing strategies, with smaller traders facing challenges in adapting to market fluctuations and traditional trading models [11][12].

Core Viewpoint - The new season of early-maturing soybeans in Heilongjiang has begun harvesting, with a focus on production yield, quality, and market sentiment among farmers and downstream enterprises [1] Planting Area Growth - The soybean planting area in Heilongjiang has increased significantly due to factors such as planting profitability, policy subsidies, and crop rotation requirements, with an overall growth rate of approximately 8% [2] - The eastern region's planting area increased by 10%, while the western region saw a 7% increase compared to last year [2] - The average yield is expected to remain stable compared to last year, with some regions reporting yields between 300 to 560 jin per mu [2] Cost Reduction - Soybean planting costs have generally decreased, primarily due to a drop in land rental prices, which are now around 11,000 yuan per hectare, down by about 10% from last year [4] - The average planting cost in Heilongjiang is estimated to be around 14,500 yuan per hectare after subsidies, with the lowest cost being approximately 5,500 yuan per hectare [4] Price Trends - The opening price for the new season soybeans in Heilongjiang has shown a downward trend, with current purchase prices ranging from 1.8 to 2.0 yuan per jin [5] - There is a notable sentiment among farmers to hold onto their soybeans due to low initial prices, despite expectations of increased production [5] Demand Stability - The demand for domestic non-GMO soybeans remains relatively stable, with oil processing enterprises primarily using domestic soybeans for production [7] - Soybean food processing enterprises have stable procurement and production, focusing on quality and maintaining consistent supply [8] Trade and Market Dynamics - Domestic soybean prices are influenced by the procurement of South American soybeans, with Brazil's soybean import prices being competitive but not significantly advantageous over domestic soybeans [6] - The trading environment has become more challenging, with traders adapting to market fluctuations and utilizing futures and options for risk management [9]