——盘面价格波动明显 现货价格僵持 边舒扬（投资咨询证号：Z0012647） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025/11/24 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 国产大豆市场周度保持平稳运行，价格略显僵持，整体变化有限，成交节奏进一步放缓。 东北地区在国储托 底之下，价格底部支撑明确，终端企经过补库，库存水平高于往年，高位采购积极性下降，导致价格上下驱 动有限。南方产区优质豆源流通偏紧与农户惜售情绪共同支撑价格，尽管下游接受度不高，但贸易环节挺价 意愿较强，购销进度在供需博弈下推进缓慢。需求端表现平稳，旺季特征有所体现，但终端补库动作完成， 进入常规采购为主，刚性需求仍有支撑，但贸易商过度挺价压制采购意愿； 整体来看， 国产大豆增产下结构分化带来的价格变化表现明显，区分蛋白标准下的定价分化明显，未来优质 优价现象将延续，对中低蛋白大豆带来侧面支撑，大豆市场继续消化反季节性上涨带来压力，价格呈现高位 僵持，回落十分有限，现货价格底部或已在逆势上涨中探明； 期货市场，豆一周度调整下行，主力2601合约周度下跌2.51%，期价短期在4100元关口形成反复，周度成交 有所放大，持仓量 ...

Core Viewpoint - The soybean production in Heilongjiang is experiencing an increase in planting area and stable yield, while the market faces challenges with low opening prices and trade dynamics affecting pricing strategies [4][7][9]. Group 1: Planting Area and Yield - The soybean planting area in Heilongjiang has increased significantly due to factors such as planting profitability, policy subsidies, and crop rotation requirements, with eastern regions seeing a 10% increase and western regions a 7% increase compared to last year [3][4]. - The overall soybean yield is expected to remain stable compared to last year, with reports indicating yields of 400 to 560 jin/mu in various regions [3][4]. Group 2: Cost and Subsidies - The cost of soybean cultivation has decreased, primarily due to a drop in land rental prices, which are now around 11,000 yuan/hectare, a 10% decrease from last year [5][6]. - After subsidies, the effective cost of soybean cultivation in Heilongjiang ranges from 5,500 to 9,239 yuan/hectare, translating to approximately 1.5 to 1.7 yuan/jin for production costs [6]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The opening price for the new season's soybeans in Heilongjiang has shown a downward trend, with current purchase prices ranging from 1.8 to 2.0 yuan/jin, influenced by low protein content and expectations of increased production [7][9]. - Domestic soybean consumption is stable, with food processing and oil extraction being the primary sectors, while the increase in domestic soybean production is mainly absorbed by the oil extraction sector [8][9]. Group 4: Trade and Pricing - Trade tensions have led to increased tariffs on U.S. soybeans, prompting China to source more soybeans from South America, particularly Brazil, where prices are competitive but do not offer a significant advantage over domestic soybeans [8][9]. - The pricing dynamics for domestic soybeans are influenced by the balance between production increases and market demand, with potential upward pressure on prices if South American imports decrease [9]. Group 5: Industry Operations - The soybean processing industry in China is characterized by a preference for non-GMO soybeans, with processing operations heavily reliant on profit margins, leading to sporadic operational schedules based on market conditions [10][11]. - The trading sector exhibits flexibility in purchasing strategies, with smaller traders facing challenges in adapting to market fluctuations and traditional trading models [11][12].

Core Viewpoint - The new season of early-maturing soybeans in Heilongjiang has begun harvesting, with a focus on production yield, quality, and market sentiment among farmers and downstream enterprises [1] Planting Area Growth - The soybean planting area in Heilongjiang has increased significantly due to factors such as planting profitability, policy subsidies, and crop rotation requirements, with an overall growth rate of approximately 8% [2] - The eastern region's planting area increased by 10%, while the western region saw a 7% increase compared to last year [2] - The average yield is expected to remain stable compared to last year, with some regions reporting yields between 300 to 560 jin per mu [2] Cost Reduction - Soybean planting costs have generally decreased, primarily due to a drop in land rental prices, which are now around 11,000 yuan per hectare, down by about 10% from last year [4] - The average planting cost in Heilongjiang is estimated to be around 14,500 yuan per hectare after subsidies, with the lowest cost being approximately 5,500 yuan per hectare [4] Price Trends - The opening price for the new season soybeans in Heilongjiang has shown a downward trend, with current purchase prices ranging from 1.8 to 2.0 yuan per jin [5] - There is a notable sentiment among farmers to hold onto their soybeans due to low initial prices, despite expectations of increased production [5] Demand Stability - The demand for domestic non-GMO soybeans remains relatively stable, with oil processing enterprises primarily using domestic soybeans for production [7] - Soybean food processing enterprises have stable procurement and production, focusing on quality and maintaining consistent supply [8] Trade and Market Dynamics - Domestic soybean prices are influenced by the procurement of South American soybeans, with Brazil's soybean import prices being competitive but not significantly advantageous over domestic soybeans [6] - The trading environment has become more challenging, with traders adapting to market fluctuations and utilizing futures and options for risk management [9]