单产下调预期与出口疲软现实博弈 8月下旬以来，内外盘豆类期价走势明显分化：内盘豆类持续围绕弱现实与强预期展开博弈，期价转为 震荡运行；而外盘美豆受出口疲软以及丰产预期渐强的影响，期价承压于1050美分/蒲式耳关口，进而 回落至1020美分/蒲式耳附近。当前，美豆期价围绕单产调整、中美贸易前景对出口的影响、强劲压榨 需求的持续性以及南美播种天气等因素上下波动。 美豆出口面临多方面挑战 美豆单产下调所引发的忧虑，难以抵消需求疲软与国际市场竞争加剧带来的影响。美国大豆出口正面临 着多重挑战，其核心问题在于中国对美豆需求的急剧萎缩以及南美大豆优势的持续增加。中国作为过去 5年占据全球大豆进口份额61%的买家，在中美贸易摩擦不断的情况下，已完全转向从巴西采购大豆。 如果美国永久性地失去3亿~3.5亿蒲式耳的中国订单，那么即便美豆产量出现大幅下调，美豆期价所获 得的利多支撑也会被疲弱的出口态势所冲淡。 2024/2025年度，美国对华大豆出口量降至2248万吨，同比减少8.1%，占美豆总出口的比例也从54%下 滑至44%。这主要是受中美贸易摩擦的影响。2025年4月，中国对美豆加征关税后，美湾和美西大豆到 岸成本远高于巴 ...

Core Insights - The collaboration between Yan Jun Farm and Shandong Yuwang Group has successfully continued for three years, culminating in a new customized agricultural cooperation agreement that enhances high-protein soybean cultivation and related industry development [1][3]. Group 1: Partnership Details - The renewed agreement includes 2,000 acres of customized agricultural planting under the "Life Has Some Fields" initiative and 26,000 acres of contracted soybean recovery [3]. - The partnership emphasizes a comprehensive management approach that includes pre-production, production, and post-production services, ensuring high-quality raw material supply for Yuwang Group's soybean processing needs [3][4]. Group 2: Economic Impact - The collaboration has led to a significant increase in planting area beyond initial expectations, contributing positively to regional agricultural economic development [3]. - The customized operating model of "Leading Enterprises + Exclusive Bases + Contracted Planting" has alleviated concerns for farmers, resulting in increased income and enhanced agricultural production efficiency [4].