1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The central banks of major global economies have used secondary - market treasury bond trading as a tool for liquidity and interest rate regulation. The Fed has a comprehensive treasury - bond - centered asset - liability management framework, while the People's Bank of China is promoting the normalization of treasury bond trading to upgrade monetary policy tools and enhance interest rate regulation. The report analyzes the differences and similarities between China and the US in operation modes and logics and forecasts future policy paths [1][9]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Fed's Treasury Bond Trading: Linked with Monetary Policy and Full - Curve Operation - **Execution by the New York Federal Reserve Bank**: The New York Fed conducts treasury bond transactions with primary dealers through the FedTrade system. The bonds are included in the SOMA, and the multi - price bidding mechanism is used. The upper limit of a single treasury bond held by the SOMA is set to 70% of the bond's outstanding amount [11]. - **Predominantly Treasury Bonds with a Steady Increase in Non - Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds account for about two - thirds of the Fed's securities assets. From the end of 2020 to October 2025, the proportion of treasury bonds decreased from 69.2% to 65%, while non - treasury bonds increased from 30.8% to 35%. Medium - and long - term treasury bonds and mortgage - backed securities are the largest in scale [12]. - **Full - Curve Holding with Balanced Short - and Long - Term Distribution**: As of the end of October 2025, treasury bonds with a maturity of 1 - year and below accounted for about 17% of the Fed's treasury bond balance, and different - term bonds were evenly distributed to support short - term liquidity regulation and long - term interest rate stability [16]. - **Predominantly Buying and Closely Linked with Monetary Policy**: From 2020 - 2025, the Fed's bond - buying scale reached $3.37 trillion, far exceeding the selling scale of $687.5 million. During the interest - rate cut cycle, the Fed increased bond purchases; during the interest - rate hike cycle, it reduced bond purchases [18]. 3.2 People's Bank of China's Treasury Bond Trading: Improving Tools and Strengthening Regulation - **Initiation of Treasury Bond Trading**: In 2024, the central bank initiated treasury bond trading to enrich policy tools, adjust the yield curve, support the real economy, and ease the pressure of government bond issuance. The monetary policy's investment structure shifted from "reverse repurchase + MLF" to "reverse repurchase + treasury bond trading" [23]. - **Suspension of Treasury Bond Trading**: Due to the off - season of treasury bond issuance, excessive decline in yields, diversification of monetary investment tools, and pressure on the exchange rate, the central bank suspended treasury bond trading in January 2025 [31]. - **Restart of Treasury Bond Trading**: In October 2025, the central bank restarted treasury bond trading to control yield risks, cooperate with fiscal policy, supplement policy tools, and relieve the pressure on banks' liquidity [36]. 3.3 Normalization of Treasury Bond Trading: Operation Modes and Impact on Policy Combinations - **Operation Outlook**: In terms of direction, net buying will be the dominant approach to replenish policy tool reserves and relieve the pressure on the banking system. In terms of term, short - term bond buying will be the main focus, supplemented by long - term bond buying. In terms of scale, the net buying scale will be higher in the first half of 2026 to match the fiscal rhythm [40]. - **Impact on Policy Combinations**: It will expand the base - money supply channels and postpone the expectation of reserve requirement ratio cuts. It will make interest rate regulation more flexible and slow down the pace of interest rate cuts, with a possible 1 - time cut of 5 - 10 BP in 2026. It will stabilize the yield central point and optimize the yield curve shape [44].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The central bank's monetary policy aims to promote economic stability and price recovery. It will maintain a loose direction but be implemented flexibly according to actual situations [1][9]. - The policy emphasizes the guiding role of policy - interest rates and the improvement of the interest - rate transmission mechanism, which may drive more funds into the bond market [2][10]. - Fiscal - financial coordination is strengthened to ease the impact of government bond supply. The policy continues to focus on structural tools [2][3][10][11]. - Considering the overall situation of deposits and asset - management products can better reflect the overall liquidity of the financial system. The downward trend of broad - spectrum interest rates remains unchanged [4][12]. - The bond market's allocation power may increase. The overall market trend is in the process of gradual recovery, and the dumbbell - shaped strategy on the yield curve is more advantageous [5][14]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Analysis of the Central Bank's Monetary Policy Report - **Monetary Policy Goals**: Promote economic stability and price recovery, implement policies based on domestic and international economic and financial situations, and the loose direction remains unchanged but with flexible implementation [1][9]. - **Interest - Rate Policy**: Guide short - term money - market interest rates to run stably around the central bank's policy rates. Reform and improve the LPR, and rationalize the relationship between loan and bond yields, which may restrict the decline of loan rates and drive funds into the bond market [2][10]. - **Fiscal - Financial Coordination**: Support the efficient issuance of government bonds through open - market operations, and cooperate with fiscal policies through "re - loans + fiscal subsidies" and other means to ease the impact of government bond supply [2][10]. - **Structural Policy**: Increase the re - loan quota by 400 billion yuan in January 2026, with a total re - loan quota of 1.2 trillion yuan. Structural tools are the main means of central bank easing [3][11]. - **Treasury Bond Trading**: Normalize treasury - bond trading, and the central bank may maintain a monthly purchase scale of tens of billions [3][11]. - **Deposit and Interest - Rate Trends**: There is no significant change in the overall deposit situation. The downward trend of broad - spectrum interest rates remains unchanged, with the weighted average interest rate of newly issued loans in Q4 2025 at 3.15%, a 10 - basis - point decrease from the previous quarter [4][12]. 3.2 Views on the Real Economy - **Positive Factors**: The national economy is stable and improving. New drivers are accelerating development, production and supply are growing well, the foundation for stable economic development is being consolidated, total demand is expanding, consumption potential is being released, and macro - policies are more proactive [17][18]. - **Risk Factors**: The external environment is more complex and severe, with weakening global economic growth momentum, increasing trade barriers, and domestic effective demand being insufficient [21]. - **Inflation Outlook**: There are more positive factors for a moderate recovery in price levels. CPI and core CPI have shown positive changes, and PPI's decline has narrowed [23]. 3.3 Next - Stage General Ideas and Specific Measures - **General Ideas**: Adhere to high - quality development, focus on expanding domestic demand and optimizing supply, deepen financial reform and opening - up, and support the "Four - Five - Five" plan to start well [25]. - **Specific Measures** - **Monetary Policy Direction**: Maintain reasonable growth of financial aggregates, implement a moderately loose monetary policy, and create a suitable monetary and financial environment [26]. - **Credit Policy Orientation**: Play the guiding role of credit policies, support key areas and weak links, and develop various types of finance such as science - technology finance and green finance [27][28]. - **Interest - Rate and Exchange - Rate Policy**: Promote interest - rate and exchange - rate marketization reforms, maintain the stability of interest and exchange rates, and create a stable environment for the real economy [29]. - **Financial Reform and Opening - up**: Strengthen the construction of the bond market, promote RMB internationalization, and expand the use of RMB in cross - border trade and investment [30]. - **Financial Risk Prevention**: Build a comprehensive macro - prudential management system, prevent and resolve financial risks, and strengthen the management of system - important financial institutions [31].