固定收益专题报告 2026 年 02 月 12 日 全球主要经济体的央行已将二级市场买卖国债作为流动性与利率调控工核 心具。美联储以国债为核心资产，构建了覆盖全曲线的资产负债表调控框 架。中国央行正加快推进国债买卖常态化操作，推动货币政策工具升级、利 率调控效能提升。本报告通过比较分析中美操作模式与逻辑的异同，对未 来工具运用和政策路径进行了展望。 美联储资产配置以国债为核心，全曲线购买，紧密联动货币政策。主体上， 美联储的国债买卖操作主要由纽约联邦储备银行执行。结构上，美联储持 有的证券资产以国债为主，持有国债占比约三分之二左右，其中中长期国 债占比达 55%；非国债占比稳步提升。期限结构上覆盖全曲线，久期配置 均衡，兼顾短期流动性调控与长期利率预期稳定。操作上，美联储以买入并 持到期为主，卖出较为有限。国债操作与货币政策周期高度联动，可精准调 控市场流动性。降息周期加大国债买入、扩表投放流动性；加息周期则减少 购债、缩表回收流动性。 我国央行国债买卖操作仍处渐进发展阶段。对标主要发达国家，我国央行 持有国债的规模、期限、操作目标和功能定位上都存在显著差异。规模上， 2025 年我国央行持有国债占其总资产比 ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The central bank's monetary policy aims to promote economic stability and price recovery. It will maintain a loose direction but be implemented flexibly according to actual situations [1][9]. - The policy emphasizes the guiding role of policy - interest rates and the improvement of the interest - rate transmission mechanism, which may drive more funds into the bond market [2][10]. - Fiscal - financial coordination is strengthened to ease the impact of government bond supply. The policy continues to focus on structural tools [2][3][10][11]. - Considering the overall situation of deposits and asset - management products can better reflect the overall liquidity of the financial system. The downward trend of broad - spectrum interest rates remains unchanged [4][12]. - The bond market's allocation power may increase. The overall market trend is in the process of gradual recovery, and the dumbbell - shaped strategy on the yield curve is more advantageous [5][14]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Analysis of the Central Bank's Monetary Policy Report - **Monetary Policy Goals**: Promote economic stability and price recovery, implement policies based on domestic and international economic and financial situations, and the loose direction remains unchanged but with flexible implementation [1][9]. - **Interest - Rate Policy**: Guide short - term money - market interest rates to run stably around the central bank's policy rates. Reform and improve the LPR, and rationalize the relationship between loan and bond yields, which may restrict the decline of loan rates and drive funds into the bond market [2][10]. - **Fiscal - Financial Coordination**: Support the efficient issuance of government bonds through open - market operations, and cooperate with fiscal policies through "re - loans + fiscal subsidies" and other means to ease the impact of government bond supply [2][10]. - **Structural Policy**: Increase the re - loan quota by 400 billion yuan in January 2026, with a total re - loan quota of 1.2 trillion yuan. Structural tools are the main means of central bank easing [3][11]. - **Treasury Bond Trading**: Normalize treasury - bond trading, and the central bank may maintain a monthly purchase scale of tens of billions [3][11]. - **Deposit and Interest - Rate Trends**: There is no significant change in the overall deposit situation. The downward trend of broad - spectrum interest rates remains unchanged, with the weighted average interest rate of newly issued loans in Q4 2025 at 3.15%, a 10 - basis - point decrease from the previous quarter [4][12]. 3.2 Views on the Real Economy - **Positive Factors**: The national economy is stable and improving. New drivers are accelerating development, production and supply are growing well, the foundation for stable economic development is being consolidated, total demand is expanding, consumption potential is being released, and macro - policies are more proactive [17][18]. - **Risk Factors**: The external environment is more complex and severe, with weakening global economic growth momentum, increasing trade barriers, and domestic effective demand being insufficient [21]. - **Inflation Outlook**: There are more positive factors for a moderate recovery in price levels. CPI and core CPI have shown positive changes, and PPI's decline has narrowed [23]. 3.3 Next - Stage General Ideas and Specific Measures - **General Ideas**: Adhere to high - quality development, focus on expanding domestic demand and optimizing supply, deepen financial reform and opening - up, and support the "Four - Five - Five" plan to start well [25]. - **Specific Measures** - **Monetary Policy Direction**: Maintain reasonable growth of financial aggregates, implement a moderately loose monetary policy, and create a suitable monetary and financial environment [26]. - **Credit Policy Orientation**: Play the guiding role of credit policies, support key areas and weak links, and develop various types of finance such as science - technology finance and green finance [27][28]. - **Interest - Rate and Exchange - Rate Policy**: Promote interest - rate and exchange - rate marketization reforms, maintain the stability of interest and exchange rates, and create a stable environment for the real economy [29]. - **Financial Reform and Opening - up**: Strengthen the construction of the bond market, promote RMB internationalization, and expand the use of RMB in cross - border trade and investment [30]. - **Financial Risk Prevention**: Build a comprehensive macro - prudential management system, prevent and resolve financial risks, and strengthen the management of system - important financial institutions [31].