1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - 7 - month economic data was generally below expectations, showing a weak - recovery pattern of "stable production, under - expected consumption, and intensified investment differentiation", which confirmed the "weak demand + low inflation" fundamental for the bond market. The risk of a trend - based correction in the bond market was generally controllable. It was suggested to seize the adjustment window in the third quarter and gradually allocate bonds after the adjustment [1]. - Short - term concerns included changes in risk - preference assets such as equities and commodities, and the effect of policies like fiscal discounts on private - sector financing demand [1]. 3. Summary by Catalog 3.1 Demand - Real estate: The transaction area of commercial housing in 20 cities decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year, significantly lower than the seasonal level. The transaction area of second - hand housing in key cities showed differentiated performance. In Beijing and Shenzhen, it increased week - on - week, while in Shanghai, Guangzhou, Hangzhou, and Chengdu, it decreased [2][12]. - Consumption: Automobile consumption decreased week - on - week. The box office of movies decreased week - on - week but was stronger than the same period last year. The national migration scale index increased week - on - week, and the subway passenger volume in first - tier cities increased [2][38]. 3.2 Production - Mid - and upstream: The operating rates of rebar, PTA, and polyester filament decreased, while the operating rate of petroleum asphalt plants increased [3][47]. - Downstream: The operating rate of all - steel tires for automobiles increased, while that of semi - steel tires decreased, but the latter was still at a seasonal high [3][47]. 3.3 Investment - Rebar: Apparent consumption decreased, but the price increased week - on - week [4][64]. - Cement: The price decreased week - on - week, while the shipping rate and inventory ratio increased [4][64]. 3.4 Trade - Export: Port throughput increased, while the comprehensive CCFI index decreased. The BDI index increased week - on - week [5][75]. - Import: The comprehensive CICFI index decreased by 1.2% week - on - week [5][75]. 3.5 Prices - CPI: The agricultural product wholesale price 200 index increased by 0.7% week - on - week. Vegetable prices increased, while egg, pork, and fruit prices decreased [6][86]. - PPI: The Nanhua industrial product price index increased by 0.2% week - on - week. Brent crude oil and COMEX gold prices decreased, while LME copper prices increased. The commodity futures market was stable with differentiated performance among varieties [6][91]. 3.6 Interest - rate Bond Tracking - Next week (August 18 - 22, 2025), the planned issuance of interest - rate bonds was 765.2 billion yuan, with a net financing of 495.2 billion yuan [7][110]. - As of August 15, the cumulative issuance progress of replacement bonds this year exceeded 95%, that of new general bonds was 72.0%, and that of new special bonds was 64.5% [7][112][117]. 3.7 Policy Weekly Observation - The Q2 monetary policy report emphasized implementing and refining a moderately loose monetary policy, including maintaining sufficient liquidity, matching financing and money supply with economic growth targets, and promoting a reasonable recovery of prices [122][123]. - Multiple policies were introduced in the week, including fiscal subsidy policies for consumer loans, tax policies for express delivery services, and real - estate policies in some regions [123][124].

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is experiencing fluctuations with a recent increase in the scale of the 30-year government bond ETF, indicating a positive sentiment among investors [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of 10:00 AM, the 30-year government bond ETF (511090) decreased by 0.25%, while its scale surpassed 23.2 billion yuan [1]. - The latest price for the 30-year government bond futures contract (TL2509) was 119.12 yuan, remaining unchanged, with a trading volume of 26,103 contracts and a total open interest of 114,229 contracts [1]. - Other government bond futures, including the 10-year (T2509) and 5-year (TF2509) contracts, showed minimal changes, with the 10-year contract down by 0.01% and the 5-year contract unchanged [1]. Group 2: Monetary Policy and Market Sentiment - The People's Bank of China conducted a 126 billion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase operation at a stable interest rate of 1.40% [1]. - The central bank's recent meeting emphasized the need for sustained macroeconomic policies, including proactive fiscal measures and moderately loose monetary policies to enhance liquidity and lower financing costs [2]. - Following the meeting, the bond market sentiment improved, with the 30-year government bond futures rising for two consecutive days, reflecting a stable fundamental outlook for fixed-income assets [2]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The Pengyang 30-year government bond ETF (511090) is the first ETF tracking the 30-year government bond index, offering T+0 trading attributes, which allows investors to capitalize on intraday price movements [2]. - This ETF serves as a high-elasticity cash management tool and a duration adjustment tool for portfolios, making it attractive for investors, especially in a low-interest-rate environment [2].

Core Viewpoint - The Ten-Year Treasury ETF (511260) has shown positive performance, with a scale exceeding 15 billion yuan, and is seen as a stable investment opportunity in the current bond market environment, especially with potential interest rate cuts in the second half of the year [1][2]. Group 1: Market Outlook - There is a probability of interest rate cuts in the second half of the year, potentially by 10 to 20 basis points, and a chance of a reserve requirement ratio cut by year-end [1]. - The current ten-year treasury yield is at 1.65%, which is relatively low compared to previous years, but there is still potential for further decline [1]. Group 2: ETF Performance - The Ten-Year Treasury ETF tracks the Shanghai Stock Exchange 10-Year Treasury Index, with an average duration of 7.6 years [2]. - Since its inception, the ETF has consistently achieved positive annual returns, with a cumulative return of 34.63% [2]. Group 3: Unique Advantages of the ETF - The ETF allows for T+0 trading, providing liquidity and opportunities for short-term trading in a volatile market [3]. - It has low trading fees, enhancing capital efficiency for investors [4]. - The ETF offers transparency with daily published holdings and allows for pledge repurchase, enabling investors to access funds for other investments [5].

Core Viewpoint - The 30-year government bond ETF (511090) has seen significant trading activity and liquidity, with a recent price adjustment to 124.5 yuan and a turnover rate of 24.52% [1] Group 1: Market Activity - The 30-year government bond ETF recorded a trading volume of 41.31 billion yuan, indicating active market participation [1] - The average daily trading volume over the past week was 69.27 billion yuan, reflecting strong investor interest [1] Group 2: Fund Size and Inflows - The latest size of the 30-year government bond ETF reached 168.46 billion yuan, showcasing its substantial market presence [1] - Recent data indicates a net inflow of 8.49 billion yuan into the ETF, suggesting positive investor sentiment [1] Group 3: Market Analysis - Huaxi Securities noted that after recent adjustments, the yields on 10-year and 30-year government bonds have returned to relatively high levels of 1.65% and 1.85%, respectively, making the market more sensitive to positive news and less reactive to negative news [1] - The upcoming mid-July period is highlighted as a critical observation point for the central bank's stance on liquidity, which could influence the bond market's recovery [1] - Guosheng Securities emphasized that the current stock market rally relies on a low-interest-rate environment, and the bond market's adjustment space is limited, presenting better allocation opportunities post-adjustment [1]

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is experiencing slight differentiation in trends, with government bond futures mostly declining, while interbank cash bond yields have turned downward, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics due to continued monetary policy easing by the central bank [1][7]. Market Trends - On June 23, government bond futures closed mostly lower, with the 30-year main contract down 0.04% at 121.290, and the 10-year main contract down 0.01% at 109.155 [2]. - The interbank major rate bond yields mostly decreased, with the 10-year government bond yield down 0.1 basis points to 1.6370% [2]. - The China Convertible Bond Index rose by 0.43% to 434.97 points, with a trading volume of 543.51 billion yuan [2]. International Market Overview - In North America, U.S. Treasury yields collectively fell, with the 10-year yield down 1.59 basis points to 4.373% [3]. - In Asia, Japanese bond yields increased, with the 10-year yield rising 1.5 basis points to 1.413% [3]. - In the Eurozone, yields on 10-year bonds from France, Germany, Italy, and Spain all decreased, while the UK saw a slight increase in its 10-year yield [3]. Primary Market Activity - The 10-year "Inner Mongolia 2517" bond had a winning bid rate of 1.77%, with a total bid multiple of 26.15 [4]. - Guizhou Province's five local bonds showed strong demand, with bid multiples exceeding 28 times for all issues [4]. Funding Conditions - The central bank conducted a 220.5 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation at a rate of 1.40% on June 23, with the total bid amount matching the amount accepted [5]. - Short-term Shibor rates mostly declined, with the overnight rate down 0.1 basis points to 1.367% [5]. Institutional Insights - Institutions note a current supply-demand imbalance in the bond market, with strong supply and weak demand, particularly in short-term bonds [7]. - There is potential for a shift in this dynamic due to an increase in government bond maturities and possible reductions in insurance long-term liability costs [7]. - The overall sentiment in the bond market remains cautious, with expectations of continued monetary policy easing and potential recovery in government bond trading [7].

Key Points - The core viewpoint of the article revolves around the recent economic data releases and geopolitical tensions affecting market dynamics, particularly in China and the U.S. [2][3] Economic Data Summary - In May 2025, China's industrial added value increased by 5.8% year-on-year, slightly above the expected 5.7%, but down from the previous value of 6.1% [2] - From January to May 2025, fixed asset investment in China grew by 3.7% year-on-year, below the expected 4.0% and the previous value of 4.0% [2] - In May 2025, China's retail sales increased by 6.4% year-on-year, surpassing the expected 4.9% and the previous value of 5.1% [2] - In the U.S., retail sales fell by 0.9% month-on-month in May, worse than the expected decline of 0.7%, indicating a weakening consumer momentum [2][6] Monetary Policy and Market Reactions - The U.S. Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50%, aligning with market expectations, while indicating a potential for two rate cuts in 2025 [2] - The People's Bank of China conducted a 400 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation, maintaining a loose monetary environment amid economic challenges [4] - The geopolitical tensions, particularly the conflict between Israel and Iran, have led to increased uncertainty in global markets, impacting risk assets negatively [5][6] Market Performance Overview - The bond market in China saw slight gains due to the economic data indicating a need for enhanced domestic demand [4] - A-shares experienced a pullback during the Lujiazui Forum, as the anticipated policy benefits did not resonate with the market, compounded by external geopolitical tensions [5] - U.S. stock markets remained volatile, influenced by the escalating conflict in the Middle East and disappointing retail sales data [6]

Group 1 - The central bank has conducted a 1 trillion yuan three-month reverse repurchase operation to alleviate pressure on bank liabilities and improve market liquidity [1] - From March, the monthly issuance scale of 1-year, 2-year, and 3-year government bonds has rapidly increased to 170-190 billion yuan, significantly higher than the previous monthly level of about 100 billion yuan, easing the demand for banks to "grab bonds" in the secondary market [1] - The central bank's recent warming attitude, through visible medium to long-term fund injections and stabilizing market fluctuations, is expected to lead major banks to gradually increase short-term bond allocations, promoting interest rate spread recovery [1] Group 2 - The ten-year government bond ETF (511260) has seen significant growth in scale and liquidity, with a net inflow exceeding 2.2 billion yuan for five consecutive days and nearly 5 billion yuan over the past ten days [2] - The ETF tracks the Shanghai Stock Exchange 10-year government bond index (H11077), which reflects the overall performance of China's long-term government bond market, focusing on fixed-rate government bonds with a remaining maturity of 9 to 10.25 years [2] - The index components have high credit ratings and liquidity, providing investors with a benchmark for measuring long-term government bond market yield fluctuations [2]

Core Viewpoint - Multiple bond funds have announced the suspension of large subscriptions to protect the interests of existing fund holders and ensure stable fund operations [1][2][3] Group 1: Fund Suspension Details - Over 10 public fund institutions, including China Merchants Fund and Orient Fund, have issued announcements regarding the suspension of large subscriptions for certain bond funds [1] - Specific limits vary by fund; for instance, Orient Fund has set a limit of 10,000 yuan for single subscriptions and total daily subscriptions [1] - ICBC Credit Suisse Fund has limited large subscriptions for four of its bond funds to 10 million yuan [1] Group 2: Market Impact and Investor Behavior - As of June 10, 669 out of 3,842 bond funds are in a suspended large subscription status, with 952 funds completely halting subscriptions [2] - The majority of suspended funds are medium to long-term pure bond funds, indicating a trend towards cautious management in the bond market [2] - The surge in investor interest in bond funds has led to increased issuance and growth in bond ETFs [3] Group 3: Rationale Behind Suspension - Fund managers cite the need to protect existing investors' interests and maintain stable fund operations as primary reasons for the suspension [2][3] - Limiting large subscriptions helps prevent dilution of existing fund holders' returns and allows fund managers to execute investment strategies effectively [3] - The suspension also aims to mitigate risks associated with large capital inflows that could lead to increased volatility in fund net values [3] Group 4: Future Outlook - The macroeconomic environment is expected to remain supportive, with a low interest rate level likely to persist, enhancing the value of bond market allocations [3] - Investment strategies are advised to focus on medium-term credit bonds and dynamic management of interest rate bonds to navigate market fluctuations [4]

Report Summary 1. Market Performance - **Stock Market**: On June 3rd, the four major A-share stock indices all rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.43% to 3361.98 points, the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.16% to 10057.17 points, the ChiNext Index up 0.48% to 2002.7 points, and the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index up 0.48% to 981.71 points. Market turnover was 1.1638 trillion yuan, a decrease of 400 million yuan from the previous day. The sectors of beauty care (+3.86%), textile and apparel (+2.53%), and comprehensive (+2.02%) led the gains, while household appliances (-2.1%), steel (-1.37%), and coal (-0.84%) led the losses. From the perspective of market strength, IM > IC > IH > IF, and the numbers of rising, flat, and falling stocks were 3,390, 240, and 1,782 respectively. The net inflows of institutional, main, large - scale, and retail investors in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets were -2.5 billion, -6.6 billion, -1.8 billion, and 11 billion yuan respectively, with changes of +16.8 billion, +9.3 billion, -11.5 billion, and -14.6 billion yuan respectively [2]. - **Stock Index Futures**: The basis of the next - month contracts of IM, IC, IF, and IH were 160.24, 127.04, 64.41, and 49.3 points respectively, and the annualized basis yields were -19.41%, -16.4%, -12.3%, and -13.49% respectively, with the three - year historical quantiles being 4%, 5%, 1%, and 5% respectively. The futures - spot price difference remained at a relatively low level [2]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On June 3rd, the yields of treasury bond futures showed a pattern of short - term rising and long - term falling. Among the active contracts, the implied interest rate of the two - year bond was 1.408, up 3.06 bps from the previous day; the implied interest rate of the five - year bond was 1.512, up 1.08 bps; the implied interest rate of the ten - year bond was 1.625, down 3.19 bps; and the implied interest rate of the thirty - year bond was 1.982, down 0.18 bps [3]. 2. Trading Strategies - **Stock Index Futures**: In the short term, due to the deep discount of small - cap stock indices, which is presumably the result of the expansion of neutral product scale since this year, and considering that the proportion of short positions in neutral products may still be high as the bond bull market has not restarted, the deep discount may continue, leading to market fluctuations. A short - cycle band strategy is recommended. In the long - term, the report maintains the view of being bullish on the economy. It is recommended to allocate IF, IC, and IM forward contracts on dips. For near - month contracts, there is a risk of a decline in micro - cap stocks, which may drag down the IC and IM indices, so caution is advised [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The current situation of the spot bond market is one of strong supply and weak demand, but this pattern is expected to change. Firstly, the maturity scale of government bonds in June will increase, and the net supply rhythm of government bonds may become more stable. Secondly, there is a possibility of a reduction in the long - term liability cost of insurance in July. Thirdly, the domestic market risk preference has returned to a defensive style, which may increase the demand for bond market allocation. On the futures side, the CTD bond price of near - month contracts is low, and combined with the relatively high IRR level recently, short - sellers have a strong willingness to deliver, putting pressure on the prices of near - month contracts and leading to a premium in far - month contracts. The long - end long - position power is strong, possibly betting on a further decline in future policy interest rates. It is recommended to be short - term long and long - term short, buying T and TL on dips in the short - term and hedging T and TL on rallies in the long - term [4]. 3. Economic Data - High - frequency data shows that in May, the prosperity of imports and exports and social activities declined, while the prosperity of the real estate market increased [11]. 4. Tables and Figures - **Table 1**: Presents the performance of stock index futures and spot markets, including details such as code, name, percentage change, current price, trading volume, open interest, etc. [6] - **Table 2**: Displays the performance of treasury bond futures and spot markets, with information on code, name, percentage change, current price, trading volume, open interest, etc. [7] - **Table 3**: Shows the changes in short - term capital interest rates, including overnight SHIBOR, DR001, one - week SHIBOR, and DR007 [11] - **Figure 1**: Depicts the term structure of treasury bond spot prices [8][9] - **Figure 2**: Tracks domestic meso - level data, based on the comparison of meso - level data in each module with the same period in the past five years, and scores the changes in prosperity [12][13][14]