固定收益点评 证券研究报告 | 固定收益点评 gszqdatemark 2026 02 11 年 月 日 重结构，重传导——读 Q4 央行货币政策执行报告 央行货币政策执行报告是全面观察央行货币政策思路的重要窗口，近期央 行发布的 2025 年四季度货币政策执行报告中，对利率和金融总量的论述 对判断未来货币政策走向和对金融市场影响有重要参考意义。 货币政策以经济稳定和物价回升作为重要考量，择机实施。本次央行货政 报告延续此前中央经济工作会议对经济定调以及对货币政策表述。认为当 前经济平稳发展的基础不断夯实，新动能持续壮大，物价运行呈现积极变 化。总体判断比较乐观。要求货币政策把促进经济稳定增长、物价合理 回升作为货币政策的重要考量，根据国内外经济金融形势和金融市场 运行情况，把握好政策实施的力度、节奏和时机。我们理解货币政策保 持宽松的方向不变，但具体的落地需要结合实际情况，灵活高效的实 施，需要参照外部冲击以及内部情况变化，包括降息降准等政策都不 存在固定范式，可能或灵活执行。 增强政策利率引导作用与疏通利率传导机制。本次货币政策执行报告强 调。引导短期货币市场利率更好围绕央行政策利率平稳运行，后续资 金价 ...

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 华宝证券指出，债市方面节前或震荡偏强。当前国债收益率已接近近期低位，由于缺乏明显利空，叠 加"负债充裕、资产短缺"背景下大型银行配置需求依然坚实，以及春节前资金偏好稳健，债市预计延续 震荡格局。短期10年期国债收益率可能下破1.80%，2月波动中枢或从1.85%附近缓慢回落至1.80%左 右。 十年国债ETF（511260）跟踪上证10年期国债指数，选取剩余期限7到10年且在上交所挂牌的国债作为 样本，久期恒定。从过往表现来看，十年国债ETF（511260）成立以来净值屡创新高，历史业绩持续稳 健。根据基金定期报告，截止三季度末，近1年回报率达4.17%，近3年回报率达14.04%，近5年回报率 达23.39%，成立至今累计回报率达35.77%。 值得关注的是，十年国债ETF成立以来经历了2018-2024年共计7个完整自然年度，均保持每年正收益， 有望成为穿越牛熊周期的资产配置利器。 风险提示：数据来源基金定期报告、wind，相关业绩经托管行核对，过往表现不代表未来。十年国债 ETF成立于2017年8月4日，2017年-2025年上半年净值增长率/业绩比较基准为：-1.55%/- ...

每日经济新闻 国债ETF（511010）跟踪的是5年国债指数（000140），以反映中国市场中长期国债的整体表现。基本 面较弱的状态下，国债收益率或仍有一定的下行空间，建议投资者关注十年国债ETF（511260）、国债 ETF（511010）。 中原证券指出，债市方面，10年期与30年期国债收益率预计区间震荡，需等待降准或降息等实质性宽松 政策落地。在利率走势方面，2026年1月国债期货市场迎来小幅反弹，十年期主力合约上涨0.45%，超 长端的30年期国债期货涨幅略高，达0.48%。 风险提示：提及个股仅用于行业事件分析，不构成任何个股推荐或投资建议。指数等短期涨跌仅供参 考，不代表其未来表现，亦不构成对基金业绩的承诺或保证。观点可能随市场环境变化而调整，不构成 投资建议或承诺。提及基金风险收益特征各不相同，敬请投资者仔细阅读基金法律文件，充分了解产品 要素、风险等级及收益分配原则，选择与自身风险承受能力匹配的产品，谨慎投资。 ...

而货币政策态度仍然比较中性，在呵护银行净息差以及汇率稳健升值的目标下，对债市保持合理区间的导向较强。总 体而言，今年债市或仍有利于偏稳健的配置型策略。 风险提示： 年初银行配置超预期后，债市经历了一轮缓慢上行，近期有所犹豫。十年国债ETF（511260）震荡为主，近5日微涨 0.05%。短期利率仍有机会下行，但中长期来看，窄幅震荡或会维持。配置型策略阶段性优于波段交易，或可关注久 期适中的国债ETF（511010）、十年国债ETF（511260）。 | 振0.38% 额76.07亿 | 综合屏 F9 后复权 超级叠加 画线 工具 砂 | 電信用F | | 511260 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | -0.048 -0.04% | | | 2025/11/24-2026/02/04(51日) V | | | 中 / @ + | | | 137.107 | 净固走势 | | 国泰上证10年期国债ETF | | | | 影比 | -48.31% 委差 | -516 | | | | 卖五 | 134.750 | 101 | | | | 交回 | 134.748 ...

Core Viewpoint - The medium to long-term outlook remains a narrow fluctuation due to the K-shaped economic differentiation, with traditional economic downturns potentially supporting the bond market [1] Group 1: Economic Outlook - The K-shaped differentiation makes it difficult to assess the macroeconomic state as "good" or "bad" [1] - Traditional economic downturns may further support the bond market, as the long bond's profitability has significantly declined, leading to substantial outflows from trading positions [1] Group 2: Monetary Policy - The current monetary policy stance is relatively neutral, with a strong guidance to maintain a reasonable range for the bond market [1] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - In a fluctuating bond market, a focus on stable investment options may offer better value than short-term trading strategies [1] - Recommended stable investment products include the National Debt ETF (511010) and the 10-Year National Debt ETF (511260) [1] Group 4: Performance of 10-Year National Debt ETF - The 10-Year National Debt ETF (511260) has consistently achieved positive returns since its inception, making it a potential asset allocation tool across market cycles [2] - Historical performance shows a 1-year return of 4.17%, a 3-year return of 14.04%, a 5-year return of 23.39%, and a cumulative return of 35.77% since inception [1][2]

十年国债ETF（511260）跟踪上证10年期国债指数，选取剩余期限7到10年且在上交所挂牌的国债作为 样本，久期恒定。从过往表现来看，十年国债ETF（511260）成立以来净值屡创新高，历史业绩持续稳 健。根据基金定期报告，截止三季度末，近1年回报率达4.17%，近3年回报率达14.04%，近5年回报率 达23.39%，成立至今累计回报率达35.77%。 华宝证券指出，近期债市情绪改善，10年期国债收益率短期内快速修复。这主要得益于央行公开市场操 作净投放呵护流动性，权益市场有所降温，以及央行超预期下调结构性政策工具利率。不过，本次利率 下调集中于再贷款、再贴现等定向工具，侧重于信用扩张，并非全面降息；且一季度政府债供给压力仍 有扰动，叠加权益市场春季行情尚未结束。展望后市，短期收益率进一步向下突破概率有限，10年期国 债收益率或围绕1.85%中枢波动，并强调应重视高票息配置。若1月下旬政府债供给扰动减弱，则有望 形成中期做多布局机会。 风险提示：数据来源基金定期报告、wind，相关业绩经托管行核对，过往表现不代表未来。十年国债 ETF成立于2017年8月4日，2017年-2025年上半年净值增长率/业绩比 ...

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is experiencing a rebound, with the ten-year government bond ETF showing a slight increase, indicating a stronger value proposition compared to long-term bonds. However, the market is expected to remain in a narrow fluctuation phase due to insufficient momentum for a unilateral trend [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - On January 21, the ten-year government bond ETF (511260) rose by 0.09%, with a 5-day increase of 0.45%, suggesting a better overall value compared to ultra-long bonds [1]. - The net price of the ten-year government bond futures is approaching the high point from December 26 of the previous year, although the rate of increase has slowed down [1]. Group 2: Economic and Monetary Policy Insights - The bond market has been in a low volatility state for over a year, but the long-term trend is expected to be stronger than mean reversion due to the correlation of interest rates with economic cycles and monetary policy [3]. - The market is currently focused on the transition between old and new economic drivers, which is difficult to validate in the short term, reflecting a cautious optimism regarding the economic fundamentals [3]. - Inflation trends are under scrutiny, with upward pressure on upstream resource prices not translating to downstream consumer prices, indicating a need for consumer stimulus to achieve a genuine inflation recovery [3]. Group 3: Investment Strategy - In the absence of clear pricing factors in the medium to long term, short-term institutional behaviors dominate, increasing the difficulty of obtaining returns and reducing strategy stability [4]. - The recommendation is to focus on stable investment options, such as the medium-duration government bond ETF (511010) and the ten-year government bond ETF (511260), as the market remains in a fluctuating state [4].

每日经济新闻 值得关注的是，十年国债ETF成立以来经历了2018-2024年共计7个完整自然年度，均保持每年正收益， 有望成为穿越牛熊周期的资产配置利器。 风险提示：数据来源基金定期报告、wind，相关业绩经托管行核对，过往表现不代表未来。十年国债 ETF成立于2017年8月4日，2017年-2025年上半年净值增长率/业绩比较基准为：-1.55%/-1.01%； 7.6%/8.47%；2.49%/4.81%；1.92%/2.09%；5.19%/5.78%；2.52%/2.87%；4.37%/4.83%；9.02%/8.09%； 0.67%/-0.24%。提及个股仅用于行业事件分析，不构成任何个股推荐或投资建议。指数等短期涨跌仅供 参考，不代表其未来表现，亦不构成对基金业绩的承诺或保证。观点可能随市场环境变化而调整，不构 成投资建议或承诺。提及基金风险收益特征各不相同，敬请投资者仔细阅读基金法律文件，充分了解产 品要素、风险等级及收益分配原则，选择与自身风险承受能力匹配的产品，谨慎投资。 华西证券指出，随着地方债发行期限结构明朗、股市慢涨信号明确及结构性降息落地，此前主导债市的 供给、风偏、降息三条主线逻辑或 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Financial Futures Weekly Report [1] - Date: January 16, 2026 [2] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - In the bond market, the negative factors are gradually materializing in January. There may be allocation opportunities during the period of large supply - demand mismatch in the first quarter. After the structural interest rate cut this week, the bond market may enter a policy observation period and remain volatile before March. For the shipping index, the spot price has reached its peak, and with the resumption of shipping by airlines, there may be short - selling opportunities for the April contract during the off - season [56][61][83] Summary by Directory I. Treasury Bonds 1. This Week's Market Review - **Treasury Futures Market**: All treasury futures contracts showed price increases this week. For example, the TL2603 contract had a weekly closing price of 111.19, a weekly settlement price of 111.26, a weekly increase of 0.32, and a weekly increase rate of 0.29%. In terms of strategy performance, long - term futures outperformed spot bonds in the long - end, while in the 5 - year and 2 - year segments, futures underperformed spot bonds. There are positive arbitrage opportunities in the 10 - year and 5 - year main contracts. Currently, the 30 - year basis is relatively high, and short - selling the basis can be considered. Due to the poor liquidity of the 2606 contract, it is not recommended to participate in the inter - period strategy. A flattening strategy for cross - variety can be focused on [7][8][11] - **Bond Spot Market**: The tightness of funds eased, and short - term yields declined significantly. By Thursday this week, the 10 - year treasury yield was reported at 2.3025%, down 0.75bp from last Friday, and the 10 - year CDB yield was reported at 2.0153%, down 1.23bp. Most US Treasury yields increased. By Thursday this week, the 10 - year US Treasury yield was reported at 4.1700%, down 1bp from last Friday, and the 2 - year US Treasury yield was reported at 3.5600%, up 2bp from last Friday [35] - **Funding**: This week, the repurchase operations were staggered and renewed. The total net investment was 111.28 billion yuan, but there was a temporary shortage of funds on the 13th. The funding situation returned to looseness in the second half of the week, and there was no liquidity stratification between banks and non - banks. The funding interest rates fluctuated. The 1 - year AAA certificate of deposit rate remained stable around 1.63 - 1.64% [38][39] - **Interest Rate Derivatives**: In terms of interest rate swaps, the yields of swap varieties fluctuated this week, and the liquidity expectation was stable [54] 2. Market Analysis - **Recent Market Logic**: In December, the bond market was weakly volatile. In January, negative factors are gradually materializing. After the implementation of the public fund fee new regulations and facing the large supply in January and the credit impulse demand at the beginning of the year, the bond market may have allocation opportunities during the supply - demand mismatch period in the first quarter. After the structural interest rate cut this week, the possibility of a short - term reserve requirement ratio cut or another interest rate cut is low, but the central bank's loose orientation remains unchanged [56] - **This Week's Fundamental Situation**: In December, the export growth rate continued to exceed expectations, mainly driven by the accelerated growth of exports to ASEAN. The total social financing increased less year - on - year, mainly due to the high - volume issuance of government bonds in the same period last year. However, credit continued to expand, especially the medium - and long - term loans of enterprises increased significantly year - on - year, while the willingness of residents to increase leverage was still weak [57] - **Next Week's Bond Market Outlook**: After the release of economic data next week, the market will enter a data vacuum period for about 1.5 months. After the structural interest rate cut this week, the market may enter a policy observation period, and the loose expectation may not heat up significantly before March. The bond market may maintain a volatile trend [61] 3. Next Week's Open - Market Maturity and Important Economic Calendar - **Open - Market Maturity**: A total of 110.15 billion yuan of reverse repurchase and treasury cash fixed - deposit will mature next week [63] - **Important Economic Data and Events**: China will release GDP data for 2025 and the LPR quotation [66] II. Shipping Index 1. Market Review - The shipping index rose sharply on Monday due to short - term disturbances but fell significantly in the second half of the week as the sentiment ebbed and returned to the fundamentals. The spot price was adjusted downward, and the shipping capacity in January and February was high. The cease - fire agreement in Gaza also contributed to the decline [67] 2. Container Shipping Market Situation - **Spot Market**: The spot price was stable in the first half of January, but shipping companies have started to lower the quotes for the second half of January, indicating that the peak of the spot price may have passed [73] - **Supply - Demand Fundamentals of Container Shipping**: On the supply side, the European container shipping capacity in January was significantly higher than the same period in previous years, and the potential shipping capacity is expected to continue to grow. Although the actual shipping capacity in January was basically the same as in previous years, the shipping capacity will be relatively high in early February. The easing of the Red Sea situation and the resumption of shipping by airlines may put downward pressure on the index. On the demand side, the European economy is slowly improving, and the demand - side support for container shipping prices is limited [79][80] 3. Market Outlook - The peak of the spot price has passed, and it is likely that the shipping routes will resume normal operation this year. Attention can be paid to the short - selling opportunities of the April contract during the off - season [83]

Core Viewpoint - The bond market has shown a slight rebound, with the 10-year government bond ETF (511260) increasing by 0.04% and 0.39% over the past five days, indicating a stronger value proposition compared to ultra-long bonds. The current market is expected to remain in a narrow fluctuation phase, and the recent rebound does not yet present sufficient entry conditions. The focus should remain on earning certain coupon yields, with attention on government bond ETFs (511010) and the 10-year government bond ETF (511260) [1]. Group 1 - The bond market is currently experiencing a narrow fluctuation trend, with the recent rebound not providing adequate entry conditions for investors [1]. - The 10-year government bond ETF (511260) has shown a slight increase of 0.04% and a 5-day increase of 0.39%, suggesting a better value compared to ultra-long bonds [1]. - The recommendation is to focus on earning certain coupon yields through strategic allocation, particularly in government bond ETFs [1][4]. Group 2 - Historical trends indicate that interest rates tend to follow a strong trend rather than revert to the mean, suggesting caution against aggressive bottom-fishing strategies [3]. - The macroeconomic environment shows signs of stabilizing, with the CPI rising moderately and PPI's year-on-year decline narrowing, indicating a potential bottoming structure in the economy [3]. - The central bank's recent monetary policy report reflects a neutral to slightly optimistic view on the macroeconomic outlook, with no urgent signals for interest rate cuts [3][4]. Group 3 - If the current macro environment persists, the probability of interest rates rising is greater than that of falling, making short-term trading less favorable compared to 25 years ago [4]. - The focus should be on mid-duration bonds, which are believed to have stronger allocation value, particularly in government bond ETFs (511010) and the 10-year government bond ETF (511260) [4].