Core Viewpoint - The bond market is experiencing significant adjustments, with institutions rebalancing their stock and bond allocations due to declining economic indicators and rising uncertainties in exports and consumer spending [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The 30-year yield has reached its highest point of the year, influenced by a 10 basis point reduction in policy rates in May, leading to a new high for 10-year government bonds [1] - As of September 10, 2025, the China Bond ETF for 5-10 year bonds has seen a decline of 0.17%, with a latest quote of 116.54 yuan, while it has accumulated a 2.85% increase over the past year [1] Group 2: Liquidity and Trading Activity - The 5-10 year government bond ETF recorded a turnover of 63.76% during the trading session, with a transaction volume of 959 million yuan, indicating active market trading [2] - The average daily transaction volume for the 5-10 year government bond ETF over the past week was 1.224 billion yuan [2] Group 3: Fund Size and Inflows - The latest size of the 5-10 year government bond ETF stands at 1.501 billion yuan, with inflows and outflows remaining balanced [3] - Over the past five trading days, the ETF has attracted a total of 31.6348 million yuan [3] Group 4: Performance Metrics - As of September 10, 2025, the 5-10 year government bond ETF has achieved a net value increase of 20.79% over the past five years [3] - The ETF's maximum monthly return since inception was 2.58%, with a longest consecutive monthly gain of 10 months and a total gain of 5.81% [3] - The historical probability of profit over three years is 100%, with a monthly profit probability of 70.89% [3] Group 5: Drawdown and Fees - The maximum drawdown for the 5-10 year government bond ETF in the past six months was 1.09%, with a relative benchmark drawdown of 0.52% [4] - The management fee for the ETF is 0.15%, and the custody fee is 0.05% [5] Group 6: Tracking Accuracy - As of September 10, 2025, the tracking error for the 5-10 year government bond ETF over the past month was 0.035% [6] - The ETF closely tracks the China Bond Index for 5-10 year government bonds, which is calculated using non-market capitalization weighting to reflect the overall performance of active bonds in this maturity range [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - After continuous decline in August, the current yield of the ten - year treasury bond once approached 1.85%, more than 45BP higher than the reverse repurchase policy rate. With long - term capital and economic fundamentals both favorable to the bond market, the allocation power of the bond market is gradually increasing, and the bond market adjustment is basically in place. However, the expectation of anti - involution promotes the continuous strengthening of the equity market, which is negative for long - term bonds. Short - term bonds are relatively stable under the expectation of worry - free capital, and the yield curve is expected to become steeper [6] Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Bond Market Performance: Risk Appetite Rebounds, Treasury Bonds Decline Significantly - **Yield and Price Changes**: In August, the capital market remained loose, and there was no significant marginal change in the economic fundamentals. However, with the rebound of risk appetite, equity assets rose significantly, suppressing bond market sentiment. Long - term bond yields increased significantly, and the treasury bond yield curve steepened. As of August 29, the yields of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bonds were 1.40%, 1.63%, 1.84%, and 2.14% respectively, with changes of - 1.53BP, 6.12BP, 13.35BP, and 19.25BP compared to July 31. The closing prices of TS, TF, T, and TL main contracts were 102.418 yuan, 105.515 yuan, 107.81 yuan, and 116.55 yuan respectively, with changes of 0.06%, - 0.20%, - 0.62%, and - 2.16% compared to July 31 [5][8] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: On August 29, the trading volumes of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year bonds were 35,583, 61,424, 81,725, and 153,398 hands respectively, with changes of - 219, - 2479, - 37, and 473 hands compared to July 31. The open interests were 76,824, 136,875, 199,086, and 140,380 hands respectively, with changes of - 33,460, - 55,118, - 32,215, and - 17,436 hands compared to July 31 [13] - **Net Basis Spread**: The net basis spreads of TS, TF, T, and TL main contracts showed narrow - range fluctuations [14] - **Inter - period Spread**: The inter - period spreads of short - term and long - term treasury bonds rebounded from low levels [16][19] 2. Policy Dynamics: Central Bank's Flexible Injection, Capital Interest Rates First Rise Then Fall - **Reverse Repurchase Operations**: From August 1 to 29, the central bank's reverse repurchase injection was 631.46 billion yuan, and the reverse repurchase maturity was 636.8 billion yuan, with a net withdrawal of 5.34 billion yuan. As of August 29, the reverse repurchase balance was 227.31 billion yuan [23] - **Buy - out Reverse Repurchase**: In August, the central bank carried out 50 billion yuan of 6 - month buy - out reverse repurchase operations and 70 billion yuan of 3 - month buy - out reverse repurchase operations. After deducting the maturity amount, the net injection of buy - out reverse repurchase in August was 30 billion yuan [24] - **MLF Operations**: In August, the central bank carried out 60 billion yuan of medium - term lending facility (MLF) operations, with a net injection of 30 billion yuan, marking six consecutive months of "increased roll - over". Together with the 30 billion yuan of buy - out reverse repurchase, the total net injection of medium - term liquidity in August reached 60 billion yuan, the highest monthly level since February this year [27] - **LPR and PSL**: In August, the loan prime rate (LPR) remained unchanged, with the 1 - year LPR at 3.00% and the 5 - year LPR at 3.50%. In July, the net withdrawal of the pledged supplementary lending (PSL) was 23 billion yuan, and the balance was 126.39 billion yuan [28] 3. Bond Supply and Demand: Government Bond Issuance Accelerates - **Government Bond Issuance**: In August, the government bond issuance was 232.94 billion yuan, with a maturity of 100.03 billion yuan and a net issuance of 132.91 billion yuan. Among them, the net issuance of treasury bonds was 84.9 billion yuan, and the net issuance of local bonds was 48.01 billion yuan. As of August, the cumulative net issuance of treasury bonds was 467.11 billion yuan, with an issuance progress of 70.14%; the cumulative net issuance of local bonds was 570.58 billion yuan, with an issuance progress of 79.25% [42] - **Special Bond Issuance**: In August, the issuance of new special bonds slowed down [43] - **Bond Issuance Multiple**: In July, the overall multiple of local bond issuance increased month - on - month [45] - **Cash Bond Trends**: The yield of treasury bonds decreased slightly, the yield of US treasury bonds fluctuated sideways, and the credit spread of credit bonds was slightly compressed [46][49][50] 4. Strategy Views: Long - term Bonds Bearish, Short - term Bonds Stable - Given the long - term capital and economic fundamentals favorable to the bond market, the adjustment of the bond market is basically in place. However, the strengthening of the equity market is negative for long - term bonds, while short - term bonds are relatively stable, and the yield curve is expected to become steeper [6]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guosheng Securities suggests that the adjustment space for the bond market is limited, indicating potential investment opportunities as stock market valuations rise [1] Bond Market Analysis - The bond market's performance is increasingly correlated with broader fixed income markets, including loans and non-standard financial products, rather than solely with the stock market [1] - The downward trend in broad interest rates, including loan rates, remains unchanged despite a decline in real returns from the real economy [1] - The excessive rise in interest rates at the beginning of the year is gradually being digested over time, as reflected in the shape of the yield curve and the year-on-year decline in interest rates [1] Interest Rate Projections - Guosheng Securities projects that the upper limits for 10-year and 30-year government bonds will remain around 1.75-1.8% and 2.05-2.1%, respectively [1] Market Indicators - The stock market's performance and non-bank positions are considered key indicators for assessing short-term adjustment pressures [1] - A potential signal for increasing allocations may arise if the stock market ceases to rise unilaterally or if fund positions drop to low levels, indicating that bearish forces may have exhausted [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - 7 - month economic data was generally below expectations, showing a weak - recovery pattern of "stable production, under - expected consumption, and intensified investment differentiation", which confirmed the "weak demand + low inflation" fundamental for the bond market. The risk of a trend - based correction in the bond market was generally controllable. It was suggested to seize the adjustment window in the third quarter and gradually allocate bonds after the adjustment [1]. - Short - term concerns included changes in risk - preference assets such as equities and commodities, and the effect of policies like fiscal discounts on private - sector financing demand [1]. 3. Summary by Catalog 3.1 Demand - Real estate: The transaction area of commercial housing in 20 cities decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year, significantly lower than the seasonal level. The transaction area of second - hand housing in key cities showed differentiated performance. In Beijing and Shenzhen, it increased week - on - week, while in Shanghai, Guangzhou, Hangzhou, and Chengdu, it decreased [2][12]. - Consumption: Automobile consumption decreased week - on - week. The box office of movies decreased week - on - week but was stronger than the same period last year. The national migration scale index increased week - on - week, and the subway passenger volume in first - tier cities increased [2][38]. 3.2 Production - Mid - and upstream: The operating rates of rebar, PTA, and polyester filament decreased, while the operating rate of petroleum asphalt plants increased [3][47]. - Downstream: The operating rate of all - steel tires for automobiles increased, while that of semi - steel tires decreased, but the latter was still at a seasonal high [3][47]. 3.3 Investment - Rebar: Apparent consumption decreased, but the price increased week - on - week [4][64]. - Cement: The price decreased week - on - week, while the shipping rate and inventory ratio increased [4][64]. 3.4 Trade - Export: Port throughput increased, while the comprehensive CCFI index decreased. The BDI index increased week - on - week [5][75]. - Import: The comprehensive CICFI index decreased by 1.2% week - on - week [5][75]. 3.5 Prices - CPI: The agricultural product wholesale price 200 index increased by 0.7% week - on - week. Vegetable prices increased, while egg, pork, and fruit prices decreased [6][86]. - PPI: The Nanhua industrial product price index increased by 0.2% week - on - week. Brent crude oil and COMEX gold prices decreased, while LME copper prices increased. The commodity futures market was stable with differentiated performance among varieties [6][91]. 3.6 Interest - rate Bond Tracking - Next week (August 18 - 22, 2025), the planned issuance of interest - rate bonds was 765.2 billion yuan, with a net financing of 495.2 billion yuan [7][110]. - As of August 15, the cumulative issuance progress of replacement bonds this year exceeded 95%, that of new general bonds was 72.0%, and that of new special bonds was 64.5% [7][112][117]. 3.7 Policy Weekly Observation - The Q2 monetary policy report emphasized implementing and refining a moderately loose monetary policy, including maintaining sufficient liquidity, matching financing and money supply with economic growth targets, and promoting a reasonable recovery of prices [122][123]. - Multiple policies were introduced in the week, including fiscal subsidy policies for consumer loans, tax policies for express delivery services, and real - estate policies in some regions [123][124].

Group 1 - The bond market has experienced a rapid increase in interest rates since July 21, with the 10-year government bond yield rising from 1.66% to 1.75% and the 30-year yield surpassing 1.99% [1][3] - The adjustment in the bond market is attributed to multiple factors, including the introduction of "anti-involution" policies and rising commodity prices. However, the market expectations stabilized with the important mid-year meetings, reducing concerns and redemption risks [3][4] - As of August 1, the 10-year government bond yield decreased to approximately 1.69%, and the 30-year yield fell to around 1.95% [3] Group 2 - The adjustment in the bond market has directly impacted the net value performance of bond funds, with an average return of -0.12% for pure bond funds from July 21 to August 1, and nearly 80% of these funds reporting negative returns [3] - Nine funds experienced a decline of over 1%, with notable losses in long-term bond funds such as Debon Ruiyu Rate Bond A and Huatai Baixin Zunyi Rate Bond 6-Month Holding A, which reported returns of -1.37% and -1.30% respectively [3] - Several institutions remain optimistic about the bond market, suggesting that the current adjustment may present a reallocation opportunity, with expectations of a stable upward trend in August due to a favorable monetary policy outlook [4]

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is experiencing fluctuations with a recent increase in the scale of the 30-year government bond ETF, indicating a positive sentiment among investors [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of 10:00 AM, the 30-year government bond ETF (511090) decreased by 0.25%, while its scale surpassed 23.2 billion yuan [1]. - The latest price for the 30-year government bond futures contract (TL2509) was 119.12 yuan, remaining unchanged, with a trading volume of 26,103 contracts and a total open interest of 114,229 contracts [1]. - Other government bond futures, including the 10-year (T2509) and 5-year (TF2509) contracts, showed minimal changes, with the 10-year contract down by 0.01% and the 5-year contract unchanged [1]. Group 2: Monetary Policy and Market Sentiment - The People's Bank of China conducted a 126 billion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase operation at a stable interest rate of 1.40% [1]. - The central bank's recent meeting emphasized the need for sustained macroeconomic policies, including proactive fiscal measures and moderately loose monetary policies to enhance liquidity and lower financing costs [2]. - Following the meeting, the bond market sentiment improved, with the 30-year government bond futures rising for two consecutive days, reflecting a stable fundamental outlook for fixed-income assets [2]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The Pengyang 30-year government bond ETF (511090) is the first ETF tracking the 30-year government bond index, offering T+0 trading attributes, which allows investors to capitalize on intraday price movements [2]. - This ETF serves as a high-elasticity cash management tool and a duration adjustment tool for portfolios, making it attractive for investors, especially in a low-interest-rate environment [2].

Core Viewpoint - The Ten-Year Treasury ETF (511260) has shown positive performance, with a scale exceeding 15 billion yuan, and is seen as a stable investment opportunity in the current bond market environment, especially with potential interest rate cuts in the second half of the year [1][2]. Group 1: Market Outlook - There is a probability of interest rate cuts in the second half of the year, potentially by 10 to 20 basis points, and a chance of a reserve requirement ratio cut by year-end [1]. - The current ten-year treasury yield is at 1.65%, which is relatively low compared to previous years, but there is still potential for further decline [1]. Group 2: ETF Performance - The Ten-Year Treasury ETF tracks the Shanghai Stock Exchange 10-Year Treasury Index, with an average duration of 7.6 years [2]. - Since its inception, the ETF has consistently achieved positive annual returns, with a cumulative return of 34.63% [2]. Group 3: Unique Advantages of the ETF - The ETF allows for T+0 trading, providing liquidity and opportunities for short-term trading in a volatile market [3]. - It has low trading fees, enhancing capital efficiency for investors [4]. - The ETF offers transparency with daily published holdings and allows for pledge repurchase, enabling investors to access funds for other investments [5].

Core Viewpoint - The 30-year government bond ETF (511090) has seen significant trading activity and liquidity, with a recent price adjustment to 124.5 yuan and a turnover rate of 24.52% [1] Group 1: Market Activity - The 30-year government bond ETF recorded a trading volume of 41.31 billion yuan, indicating active market participation [1] - The average daily trading volume over the past week was 69.27 billion yuan, reflecting strong investor interest [1] Group 2: Fund Size and Inflows - The latest size of the 30-year government bond ETF reached 168.46 billion yuan, showcasing its substantial market presence [1] - Recent data indicates a net inflow of 8.49 billion yuan into the ETF, suggesting positive investor sentiment [1] Group 3: Market Analysis - Huaxi Securities noted that after recent adjustments, the yields on 10-year and 30-year government bonds have returned to relatively high levels of 1.65% and 1.85%, respectively, making the market more sensitive to positive news and less reactive to negative news [1] - The upcoming mid-July period is highlighted as a critical observation point for the central bank's stance on liquidity, which could influence the bond market's recovery [1] - Guosheng Securities emphasized that the current stock market rally relies on a low-interest-rate environment, and the bond market's adjustment space is limited, presenting better allocation opportunities post-adjustment [1]

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is experiencing slight differentiation in trends, with government bond futures mostly declining, while interbank cash bond yields have turned downward, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics due to continued monetary policy easing by the central bank [1][7]. Market Trends - On June 23, government bond futures closed mostly lower, with the 30-year main contract down 0.04% at 121.290, and the 10-year main contract down 0.01% at 109.155 [2]. - The interbank major rate bond yields mostly decreased, with the 10-year government bond yield down 0.1 basis points to 1.6370% [2]. - The China Convertible Bond Index rose by 0.43% to 434.97 points, with a trading volume of 543.51 billion yuan [2]. International Market Overview - In North America, U.S. Treasury yields collectively fell, with the 10-year yield down 1.59 basis points to 4.373% [3]. - In Asia, Japanese bond yields increased, with the 10-year yield rising 1.5 basis points to 1.413% [3]. - In the Eurozone, yields on 10-year bonds from France, Germany, Italy, and Spain all decreased, while the UK saw a slight increase in its 10-year yield [3]. Primary Market Activity - The 10-year "Inner Mongolia 2517" bond had a winning bid rate of 1.77%, with a total bid multiple of 26.15 [4]. - Guizhou Province's five local bonds showed strong demand, with bid multiples exceeding 28 times for all issues [4]. Funding Conditions - The central bank conducted a 220.5 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation at a rate of 1.40% on June 23, with the total bid amount matching the amount accepted [5]. - Short-term Shibor rates mostly declined, with the overnight rate down 0.1 basis points to 1.367% [5]. Institutional Insights - Institutions note a current supply-demand imbalance in the bond market, with strong supply and weak demand, particularly in short-term bonds [7]. - There is potential for a shift in this dynamic due to an increase in government bond maturities and possible reductions in insurance long-term liability costs [7]. - The overall sentiment in the bond market remains cautious, with expectations of continued monetary policy easing and potential recovery in government bond trading [7].

Key Points - The core viewpoint of the article revolves around the recent economic data releases and geopolitical tensions affecting market dynamics, particularly in China and the U.S. [2][3] Economic Data Summary - In May 2025, China's industrial added value increased by 5.8% year-on-year, slightly above the expected 5.7%, but down from the previous value of 6.1% [2] - From January to May 2025, fixed asset investment in China grew by 3.7% year-on-year, below the expected 4.0% and the previous value of 4.0% [2] - In May 2025, China's retail sales increased by 6.4% year-on-year, surpassing the expected 4.9% and the previous value of 5.1% [2] - In the U.S., retail sales fell by 0.9% month-on-month in May, worse than the expected decline of 0.7%, indicating a weakening consumer momentum [2][6] Monetary Policy and Market Reactions - The U.S. Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50%, aligning with market expectations, while indicating a potential for two rate cuts in 2025 [2] - The People's Bank of China conducted a 400 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation, maintaining a loose monetary environment amid economic challenges [4] - The geopolitical tensions, particularly the conflict between Israel and Iran, have led to increased uncertainty in global markets, impacting risk assets negatively [5][6] Market Performance Overview - The bond market in China saw slight gains due to the economic data indicating a need for enhanced domestic demand [4] - A-shares experienced a pullback during the Lujiazui Forum, as the anticipated policy benefits did not resonate with the market, compounded by external geopolitical tensions [5] - U.S. stock markets remained volatile, influenced by the escalating conflict in the Middle East and disappointing retail sales data [6]