1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The central bank's monetary policy aims to promote economic stability and price recovery. It will maintain a loose direction but be implemented flexibly according to actual situations [1][9]. - The policy emphasizes the guiding role of policy - interest rates and the improvement of the interest - rate transmission mechanism, which may drive more funds into the bond market [2][10]. - Fiscal - financial coordination is strengthened to ease the impact of government bond supply. The policy continues to focus on structural tools [2][3][10][11]. - Considering the overall situation of deposits and asset - management products can better reflect the overall liquidity of the financial system. The downward trend of broad - spectrum interest rates remains unchanged [4][12]. - The bond market's allocation power may increase. The overall market trend is in the process of gradual recovery, and the dumbbell - shaped strategy on the yield curve is more advantageous [5][14]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Analysis of the Central Bank's Monetary Policy Report - **Monetary Policy Goals**: Promote economic stability and price recovery, implement policies based on domestic and international economic and financial situations, and the loose direction remains unchanged but with flexible implementation [1][9]. - **Interest - Rate Policy**: Guide short - term money - market interest rates to run stably around the central bank's policy rates. Reform and improve the LPR, and rationalize the relationship between loan and bond yields, which may restrict the decline of loan rates and drive funds into the bond market [2][10]. - **Fiscal - Financial Coordination**: Support the efficient issuance of government bonds through open - market operations, and cooperate with fiscal policies through "re - loans + fiscal subsidies" and other means to ease the impact of government bond supply [2][10]. - **Structural Policy**: Increase the re - loan quota by 400 billion yuan in January 2026, with a total re - loan quota of 1.2 trillion yuan. Structural tools are the main means of central bank easing [3][11]. - **Treasury Bond Trading**: Normalize treasury - bond trading, and the central bank may maintain a monthly purchase scale of tens of billions [3][11]. - **Deposit and Interest - Rate Trends**: There is no significant change in the overall deposit situation. The downward trend of broad - spectrum interest rates remains unchanged, with the weighted average interest rate of newly issued loans in Q4 2025 at 3.15%, a 10 - basis - point decrease from the previous quarter [4][12]. 3.2 Views on the Real Economy - **Positive Factors**: The national economy is stable and improving. New drivers are accelerating development, production and supply are growing well, the foundation for stable economic development is being consolidated, total demand is expanding, consumption potential is being released, and macro - policies are more proactive [17][18]. - **Risk Factors**: The external environment is more complex and severe, with weakening global economic growth momentum, increasing trade barriers, and domestic effective demand being insufficient [21]. - **Inflation Outlook**: There are more positive factors for a moderate recovery in price levels. CPI and core CPI have shown positive changes, and PPI's decline has narrowed [23]. 3.3 Next - Stage General Ideas and Specific Measures - **General Ideas**: Adhere to high - quality development, focus on expanding domestic demand and optimizing supply, deepen financial reform and opening - up, and support the "Four - Five - Five" plan to start well [25]. - **Specific Measures** - **Monetary Policy Direction**: Maintain reasonable growth of financial aggregates, implement a moderately loose monetary policy, and create a suitable monetary and financial environment [26]. - **Credit Policy Orientation**: Play the guiding role of credit policies, support key areas and weak links, and develop various types of finance such as science - technology finance and green finance [27][28]. - **Interest - Rate and Exchange - Rate Policy**: Promote interest - rate and exchange - rate marketization reforms, maintain the stability of interest and exchange rates, and create a stable environment for the real economy [29]. - **Financial Reform and Opening - up**: Strengthen the construction of the bond market, promote RMB internationalization, and expand the use of RMB in cross - border trade and investment [30]. - **Financial Risk Prevention**: Build a comprehensive macro - prudential management system, prevent and resolve financial risks, and strengthen the management of system - important financial institutions [31].

据银河证券研究所统计显示，转债市场自2017年以来进入供需两旺的黄金发展阶段，据Wind数据显 示，2017.1.1-2025.6.16，中证转债指数累计上涨46.31%，年化收益率5.36%，同期中债新综合全价指数 累计上涨12.47%，年化收益率1.80%。 蒋磊还提到，2025年全国两会的政策基调以"积极的财政政策+适度宽松的货币政策"为核心，结合扩大 内需、支持科技创新、深化资本市场改革等方向，为可转债市场提供了多重支撑。今年国家政策支持 的"两重"，侧重投资端，通过重大项目和安全能力建设稳增长、调结构；"两新"意在释放内需潜力、促 进倒逼产业升级。 在2025年市场步入下半场之际，投资风向的演变成为各界瞩目的焦点。债市，作为金融市场的重要组成 部分，其动态牵动着众多投资者的心弦。在银河基金策略会上，基金经理蒋磊对债市及可转债市场发表 了自己的看法，为投资者带来了相关市场的最新分析与展望。 展望后市，蒋磊认为，债市可能在若干催化因素推动下重启：第一个因素，关税问题存在反复可能，且 关税对经济的影响将逐渐显现，出口增速可能在某个时间点快速回落。第二，内需偏弱，收入预期偏弱 抑制消费；地产数据继续走弱；财 ...

广谱利率下行的中期主线不变，利多尚未出尽。 5月20日，存贷款降息同步落地。对于LPR（贷款市场报价利率）下行，此前已有充分"剧透"和预期， 存款利率降幅则略超市场预期。但从市场表现来看，相比还算"捧场"的股市，债市再次被调侃"降息降 出了加息的效果"。 理论上，存款利率下行会驱动债券各品种利率下行。但20日当天，各期限国债利率反而出现调整势头。 21日，长债利率进一步上行。有市场人士认为，市场对接下来存款"搬家"可能带来的银行"缺负债"，以 及同业存单吸金情况等担忧增加，部分机构利好兑现选择止盈。 不过，机构对债牛走势依然乐观。一方面，宏观经济基本面依然面临多重不确定性，增量政策预期仍 在；另一方面，资金面整体仍维持宽松。对于银行存款流向非银，有债市研究人士称，理财、货基规模 抬升也意味着对债市配置需求增加，只是结构偏好会有变化。 对于多重利好消息下多空双方再度回到均衡格局，机构普遍认为，在基本面没有重大变化的情况下，广 谱利率下行的中期主线仍将主导债券的中长期配置价值。国盛证券固收分析师杨业伟表示，银行负债成 利率下行债市"波澜不惊" 继20日国有大行和头部股份行官宣存款挂牌利率下调后，多家股份行在21日 ...

截至2025年3月31日 10:04，30年国债ETF(511090)上涨0.17%，最新价报121.33元，盘中成交额已达 21.77亿元，换手率12.49%，市场交投活跃。 业内人士认为，30年国债ETF是较好的组合管理工具，不管用于平衡组合久期还是对冲权益仓位，其配 置价值、交易价值都较为突出。首先，30年期国债ETF交易门槛低，个人投资者可以直接购买，最小交 易单位为100份，约1万元。其次，交易效率高，买卖即时成交，并可实现T+0日内回转交易。最后，有 多家做市商提供流动性，买卖即时成交，不缺对手盘，流动性较为充裕。 风险提示：本产品由鹏扬基金管理有限公司发行与管理，销售机构不承担产品的投资、兑付和风险管理 责任。基金管理人承诺以诚实信用、勤勉尽责的原则管理和运用基金资产，但不保证基金一定盈利，也 不保证最低收益。基金的过往业绩并不预示其未来表现，本公司管理的其他基金的业绩并不构成对本基 金业绩表现的预示和保证。投资者在投资基金前应认真阅读基金合同、招募说明书和基金产品资料概要 等基金法律文件，全面认识基金产品的风险收益特征，在了解产品情况及销售机构适当性意见的基础 上，根据自身的风险承受能力、投资 ...