Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views Index Futures - Trump threatens to significantly increase tariffs on India over oil purchases from Russia; Switzerland plans to offer a more attractive trade proposal to the US to reduce tariffs; the President of the San Francisco Fed predicts more than two interest rate cuts this year; the former third - in - command of the Fed believes internal differences are exaggerated. A - share new account openings in July increased by 71%. With high margin trading in China, a decline in fund holding ratios, and the Politburo meeting not exceeding expectations, there may be minor fluctuations during the intensive semi - annual report disclosure period in late August, and index futures may oscillate [1]. Treasury Bond Futures - After the announcement of the resumption of VAT on interest income from government bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds on Friday, there was a wave of "scrambling for old bonds" in the bond market. On Monday, the yield of active bonds dropped by 1 - 1.5BP compared to Friday's last trading. Without major positive or negative factors, the market may return to low - volatility, and the 10 - year Treasury bond may oscillate within a narrow range around 1.70 [2]. Market Review Index Futures - The main contract futures of CSI 300 rose 0.52%, SSE 50 rose 0.54%, CSI 500 rose 0.97%, and CSI 1000 rose 1.42% [4]. Treasury Bond Futures - The 10 - year main contract rose 0.02%, the 5 - year main contract fell 0.01%, the 30 - year main contract rose 0.08%, and the 2 - year main contract remained unchanged [5]. Technical Analysis Index Futures - The KDJ indicator shows a rebound trend for the broader market [4]. Treasury Bond Futures - The MACD indicator shows that the T main contract may rebound [6]. Strategy Suggestions Index Futures - Oscillate [1]. Treasury Bond Futures - Oscillate [2]. Futures Data (2025 - 08 - 04) | Futures Variety | Closing Price (Yuan/Contract) | Change (%) | Trading Volume (Lots) | Open Interest (Lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CSI 300 Main Continuous | 4,052.80 | 0.52 | 44,736 | 146,808 | | SSE 50 Main Continuous | 2,770.40 | 0.54 | 24,294 | 56,661 | | CSI 500 Main Continuous | 6,169.00 | 0.97 | 42,885 | 102,178 | | CSI 1000 Main Continuous | 6,642.60 | 1.42 | 119,420 | 177,500 | | 10 - year Treasury Bond Main Continuous | 108.47 | 0.02 | 77,910 | 175,703 | | 5 - year Treasury Bond Main Continuous | 105.72 | - 0.01 | 62,616 | 128,789 | | 30 - year Treasury Bond Main Continuous | 119.19 | 0.08 | 122,755 | 105,770 | | 2 - year Treasury Bond Main Continuous | 102.35 | 0.00 | 36,387 | 90,529 | [7]

1. Report Information - Report Name: Treasury Bond Daily [1] - Date: August 5, 2025 [2] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao (Macro Precious Metals), Huang Wenxin (Treasury Bond and Container Shipping), Nie Jiayi (Stock Index) [3] 2. Core View - In the short - term, the market is concerned about the VAT collection on the interest income of newly - issued treasury bonds after August 8. Old bonds have a tax - exemption advantage, so there may be buying demand this week. After the tax is levied, new bond yields may rise. The impact on treasury bond futures is limited if the CTD remains old bonds. In the long - term, the tax mainly affects long - term varieties. Since July, the market risk appetite has increased, putting pressure on the bond market. However, the bond market has not panicked. The sustainability of the stock and commodity market rally is questionable, and the bond market may rebound. The bull - market foundation of the bond market remains unchanged, but attention should be paid to economic data in August and the implementation of anti - involution measures [11][12] 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Performance**: On Monday, there was buying in the bond market in the morning after the announcement of VAT on new - issued treasury bond interest income on Friday night. However, the rising A - share market in the afternoon suppressed the bond market, and the gains of treasury bond futures narrowed [8] - **Interest Rates of Spot Bonds**: The yields of short - term spot bonds decreased, while long - term ones increased by 1 - 2bp. The yield of the active 10 - year treasury bond 250011 rose 1.25bp to 1.7075% at 16:30 [9] - **Funding Market**: At the beginning of the month, funds were stable and loose. There were 495.8 billion yuan of reverse repurchases due, and the central bank conducted 544.8 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net injection of 49 billion yuan. Short - term funding rates fluctuated slightly, with the overnight weighted inter - bank deposit rate around 1.315%, and the 7 - day rate rising 2.76bp to 1.45%. The 1 - year AAA certificate of deposit rate was stable around 1.6% [10] 3.2 Industry News - **Tax Policy**: Starting from August 8, 2025, VAT will be levied on the interest income of newly - issued treasury bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds. Interest income from previously issued bonds will remain tax - exempt until maturity. Natural persons buying bonds with a monthly limit of no more than 100,000 yuan will be exempt from VAT on interest income until December 31, 2027 [13] - **Policy Tools and Bond Issuance**: The National Development and Reform Commission will speed up the approval of new policy - based financial instruments. The issuance of government bonds, including ultra - long - term special treasury bonds and new special bonds, is expected to accelerate, and infrastructure investment is expected to rebound in the second half of the year [13] - **Multi - department Measures**: Multiple departments have deployed key work for the second half of the year, with releasing domestic demand potential, promoting the integration of "two innovations", and capacity governance in key industries as the main focuses. Policies such as setting up new policy - based financial instruments are expected to be implemented [14] 3.3 Data Overview - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Data on trading, including opening, closing, and settlement prices, trading volume, and open interest, are provided for various treasury bond futures contracts on August 4 [6] - **Money Market**: Information on SHIBOR term - structure changes, SHIBOR trends, and inter - bank repurchase rates is presented [28][32] - **Derivatives Market**: Shibor3M and FR007 interest rate swap fixing curves are shown [34]

Monetary Policy and Economic Support - The People's Bank of China continues to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, focusing on preventing excessive exchange rate fluctuations and increasing financing support for key areas such as "two new" and "two heavy" [2] - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) announced the release of the fourth batch of 69 billion yuan in funding to support the consumption of old goods, completing the annual plan of 300 billion yuan [2] Company Performance - Ninebot reported a revenue of 11.742 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 76.14%, with a net profit of 1.242 billion yuan, up 108.45% [5] - Hikvision achieved a revenue of 41.818 billion yuan, a 1.48% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 5.657 billion yuan, up 11.71% [5] - Cangge Mining reported a revenue of 1.678 billion yuan, a decrease of 4.74%, but a net profit of 1.8 billion yuan, an increase of 38.80% [5] - Chipone expects a revenue of approximately 584 million yuan for Q2 2025, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 49.90% [5] Corporate Developments - Zhongyou Engineering received a project award letter for a seawater pipeline project in Iraq worth 2.524 billion USD (approximately 18.032 billion yuan), which could positively impact future revenue and profits [7] - BYD reported July car sales of 344,296 units, a year-on-year increase of 0.27%, with cumulative sales from January to July reaching 2.49 million units, up 27% [6] - China Shenhua announced plans to issue shares and pay cash to acquire coal-related assets from its controlling shareholder, the National Energy Group [8] Industry Trends - The report from CITIC Securities suggests focusing on high-growth sectors such as overseas computing chains, innovative pharmaceuticals, wind power, and military industry, while also monitoring the progress of domestic computing and AI applications [8]