在欧盟、英国、日本以及韩国等主要经济体与美国达成的贸易协定中，后者除了对前者进口商品收 取15%以上的关税外，还获得了前者数额不等的投资承诺。根据耶鲁大学预算实验室的最新估计，目前 美国平均有效关税率已达到18.3%，为1934年以来的最高水平，只是特朗普政府在酣畅淋漓地享受着贸 易谈判胜利果实的同时，美元也在静悄悄地承受着信用流失之痛。 美元之所以成为国际货币体系中的龙头货币，最为广泛的逻辑基础就是经济全球化，简言之，是全 球自由化贸易与多边交易安排，让美元在世界范围内畅行无阻，并且商品与服务的贸易自由化程度越 高，交易的范围越广大，美元可流动与可触及的地域就越开阔，相反，关税政策就是提高贸易门槛，将 一些国家隔离与排除在美国的贸易体系之外，通俗地讲就是，贸易门槛高了，非美国家获得美元的难度 加大了，与美国做生意的国家少了，美元的需求量也就变小了，这种情况下美元自然就失去了传统影响 力。因此，关税政策破坏了全球贸易体系，也同时撕裂了国际货币体系，尤其是作为主流货币的美元信 用基础。 对于特朗普来说，在进口关税政策上大动干戈的目的要么是企图扭转美国贸易逆差，要么是提升企 业在非美国家与地区的投资经营成本，进而 ...

Group 1: Dollar's Role and Challenges - The dollar has transitioned through various roles, from a dominant currency post-World War I to a key player in the Bretton Woods system, but its fundamental financing function is being misaligned [1][4] - The dollar is increasingly used as a tool for financial sanctions by a few countries, leading to a deconstruction of the credit preference associated with it [1][4] - Tariff policies under the Trump administration have negatively impacted the dollar's credibility, as increased tariffs create risks for global and U.S. economies, reducing the demand for dollars [2][3] Group 2: Economic Implications of Tariff Policies - Trump's tariffs aim to reduce trade deficits and encourage domestic manufacturing, but they may ultimately decrease dollar outflow and international demand for the dollar [3][4] - The focus on goods trade neglects the service trade, where the U.S. has a surplus, and retaliatory measures from other countries could further diminish dollar influence [3][4] Group 3: U.S. National Debt and Dollar Credibility - The U.S. national debt has surpassed $36 trillion, with interest payments becoming the fastest-growing part of government spending, raising concerns about the sustainability of U.S. fiscal policy [7][8] - The cycle of increasing fiscal deficits and national debt issuance is eroding the credibility of the dollar, as the government struggles to manage its financial obligations [6][8] Group 4: Global Shift Away from the Dollar - Countries are actively seeking alternatives to the dollar, establishing bilateral trade agreements and payment systems to reduce reliance on the dollar [10][11] - The trend towards "de-dollarization" is gaining momentum, with various nations exploring digital currencies and alternative payment mechanisms, indicating a shift towards a more diversified global monetary system [11][12]