Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The A-share market is expected to continue its upward trend, with the policy adjustment and the continuous listing of high-quality assets driving the index up, reflecting the improvement of market liquidity and the trend of value revaluation [3][4] - After the A-share market turns into an incremental market following the Hong Kong stock market, and with the stabilization of trade war expectations and the end of the interim report season in August, a sectoral market may form again [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - Last week, the four stock index futures varieties continued to rise across the board, with CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 showing relatively strong performance. Most of the basis of the four stock index futures varieties was in the mode of futures discount [2] - The A-share market continued to rise last week, with the CSI All-Share Index rising more than 1% for three consecutive weeks, and the trading volume remaining at a relatively high level. The financial industry represented by banks, securities, and insurance showed relatively weak performance, but its previous large gains and temporary adjustment helped relieve the liquidity pressure on other small and medium-sized sectors [2] 3.2 Market Outlook - The A-share market is expected to gradually turn into an incremental market after the Hong Kong stock market. With the stabilization of trade war expectations and the end of the interim report season in August, a sectoral market may form again [3] - Policy adjustment and the continuous listing of high-quality assets drive the index up, reflecting the improvement of market liquidity and the trend of value revaluation. The current low-valued manufacturing sector may be boosted by the inflow of incremental funds [4]

Market Performance - The US stock market showed mixed results on July 18, with the Nasdaq rising by 0.05% to reach a new historical high, marking five consecutive weeks of gains [1][4] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.32%, while the S&P 500 saw a slight decrease of 0.01% [4] - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index increased by 0.6%, with an intraday rise exceeding 2% [1][8] Notable Stocks - Popular Chinese concept stocks mostly rose, with significant gains including a 31% increase for Linklogis and over 8% for Hesai Technology [8] - Tesla's stock rose by over 3%, while Nvidia reached a new historical high during the day but closed down by 0.34% [5][6] Commodity Market - International precious metal futures generally rose, with COMEX gold futures up by 0.30% to $3355.5 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures up by 0.32% to $38.425 per ounce [2][13] - The week saw a cumulative decline in gold prices of 0.25% and a 1.36% decline in silver prices [13] Economic Insights - Citic Securities indicated that the US dollar lacks a strong basis for long-term appreciation, with a continuing trend of "de-dollarization" and a rising preference for non-US assets [11] - The outlook for gold prices may follow a "stair-step" upward pattern due to increasing expectations for interest rate cuts and growing uncertainties in the global economic and political landscape [13]

Market Overview - The trend of "de-dollarization" is strengthening, leading to a preference for non-USD assets, with Asian equities being steadily revalued[6] - The A-share market is heating up, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.21% to 3,519 points, while the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext Index fell by 0.11% and 0.45% respectively[17] - The Hang Seng Index and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index increased by 0.26% and 0.52% respectively, although market sentiment remains cautious[11] Commodity and Forex Insights - International oil prices fell by 2%, with NYMEX crude down 2.15% to $66.98 per barrel, and Brent crude down 1.63% to $69.21 per barrel[28] - The US dollar index slightly increased by 0.2%, while gold prices experienced a minor decline[28] - The Chinese yuan appreciated by 1.8% year-to-date against the US dollar, closing at 7.172[27] Fixed Income Market - US Treasury yields rose slightly, with the 30-year yield approaching 5%[5] - Asian bond markets showed cautious sentiment initially but improved later, with Chinese investment-grade bond spreads narrowing by 1-2 basis points[31] - The yield on Japan's 10-year government bonds reached its highest level since 2008, reflecting market concerns ahead of upcoming elections[31] Sector Performance - In the A-share market, sectors such as energy and utilities saw gains of 1.5% and 0.8% respectively, while real estate declined by 0.9%[17] - The healthcare sector in Hong Kong rose by 2.4%, while the financial sector remained flat[12] Key Economic Indicators - The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June is set to be released, which may influence market expectations regarding interest rates[5] - China's foreign currency deposits exceeded $1 trillion for the first time in over three years, indicating a strong capital inflow[6]

Core Viewpoint - Zinc prices experienced fluctuations in June, initially declining due to weak demand and increased supply, but rebounded later in the month driven by improved macro sentiment and disruptions in overseas smelters [2] Group 1: Macroeconomic Factors - The US dollar index has seen a significant decline since the beginning of the year, dropping to around 97, which has positively impacted dollar-denominated commodities [3] - Expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have increased, with potential cuts anticipated within the year [3] - Geopolitical tensions have eased, particularly in the Israel-Palestine conflict, leading to stabilization in oil prices [3] Group 2: Supply Dynamics - Global zinc mine production in April was 1.0192 million tons, a slight decrease of 0.6% month-on-month but an increase of 9.7% year-on-year [4] - Domestic zinc concentrate production in May rose by 9.2% month-on-month to 325,000 tons, while cumulative production from January to May saw a year-on-year decline of 3.4% [4] - Zinc processing fees have been rising, with July's average processing fee for domestic zinc concentrate increasing by 200 RMB per ton to 3,850 RMB per ton [4] Group 3: Domestic Production Expectations - China's refined zinc production in May was 583,000 tons, a slight increase from April but a year-on-year decline of 2.3% [5] - The expectation for increased domestic refined zinc production is strong due to improved smelter profits and reduced maintenance schedules [5] - The import of refined zinc has decreased slightly to 26,700 tons in May, with a cumulative decline of 16.65% year-on-year for the first five months [5] Group 4: Inventory and Pricing Trends - LME zinc inventory has decreased from 195,000 tons in mid-April to 119,000 tons, indicating a tightening supply [6] - Domestic refined zinc inventory initially increased but has since decreased, remaining at lower levels compared to previous years [6] - The current market shows a narrowing of the LME 0-3 zinc spot premium, which has implications for potential warehouse risks similar to those seen in copper [6] Group 5: Demand Conditions - The demand for zinc remains weak due to seasonal factors, with processing enterprises experiencing declining operating rates [7] - The operating rate for galvanizing enterprises dropped to 56.21%, indicating reduced orders and production [7] - Overall, construction and manufacturing sectors are showing signs of weakness, with real estate and infrastructure investment growth slowing [7] Group 6: Overall Market Outlook - The combination of a weak dollar, easing geopolitical risks, and expectations of Fed rate cuts has led to a recovery in the non-ferrous metals market [8] - The supply side remains relatively loose due to steady production from both domestic and international mines, while smelter profits are recovering [8] - Despite the positive macro factors, the seasonal demand weakness and inventory dynamics suggest a cautious outlook for zinc prices [8]

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 Mid-term Investment Strategy Conference held by CICC focused on the theme of "Resilience and Reconstruction," discussing key topics such as the outlook for the Chinese economy, global asset trends, and advancements in AI and high-end manufacturing [3][4]. Group 1: Geopolitical Economics - CICC's Chief Economist, Peng Wensheng, highlighted the shift towards geopolitical economics, emphasizing that the past 40 years of globalization and financialization are being reevaluated due to rising inequality and recent economic challenges in the U.S. [6][7]. - The macro impacts of geopolitical competition include increased supply constraints due to de-globalization, protectionism, and fragmented global supply chains, which harm economic efficiency [6]. - The importance of real assets is rising, driven by fiscal expansion and the need for de-financialization, with China holding unique advantages in green industries and AI [6]. Group 2: Monetary Order Reconstruction - Chief Strategy Analyst, Miao Yanliang, noted that the global monetary order is rapidly diversifying and fragmenting, which may reduce the impact of high U.S. Treasury yields on RMB assets [10]. - The anticipated influx of capital into Hong Kong stocks is supported by China's resilient fundamentals, trends in AI, low valuations, and under-allocation by foreign investors [10]. Group 3: Economic Recovery and Market Outlook - Chief Macro Analyst, Zhang Wenlang, observed a divergence in GDP growth and weak prices, attributing this to demand gaps and structural improvements in the economy [13]. - The outlook for the second half of 2025 suggests a continuation of "quasi-balance" growth, with potential structural highlights as the real estate sector's drag on the economy diminishes [13]. Group 4: U.S. Economic Rebalancing - U.S. Macro Chief Economist, Liu Zhengning, discussed the implications of U.S. tariff policies, indicating a shift from balanced to functional fiscal policies to stabilize the economy [16]. - The short-term effects of tariffs may lead to stagflation, with a potential for growth slowdown and temporary inflation increases in the U.S. economy [16]. Group 5: A-Share Market Resilience - Domestic Strategy Chief Analyst, Li Qiusuo, expressed confidence in the resilience of the A-share market, predicting a "steady then rising" trend in the second half of 2025, contingent on effective macro policies [17][21]. - Investment strategies should focus on certainty in uncertain environments, emphasizing opportunities in capacity cycles, high-growth sectors, and dividend-paying stocks [21]. Group 6: Global Market Trends - Overseas Strategy Chief Analyst, Liu Gang, noted a growing global consensus on "de-dollarization," although the extent may not meet expectations [22]. - The outlook for Hong Kong stocks suggests a structural market with potential for gains in sectors like technology and new consumption, despite overall index volatility [22]. Group 7: Digital Financial Services - CICC is enhancing its digital service capabilities through the "CICC Insight" platform, which provides comprehensive research and investment information to institutional investors [23]. - The company aims to leverage financial technology to improve service efficiency and support clients' investment decisions [23][24].

从市场反应看，投资者对美国通胀形势依然担忧。 21世纪经济报道特约撰稿王应贵 自特朗普政府宣布所谓"对等关税"以来，新关税政策要么暂停，要么对某些进口产品豁免，但是金融机 构和企业却依然担心关税政策大概率会推高通货膨胀。4月美国消费物价指数(CPI)报告显示，通货膨胀 形势呈良性态势。6月11日公布的5月美国CPI报告再度显示，通货膨胀低于预期值，且处于可控状态。 5月名义通胀环比增长0.1%，低于4月份的0.2%，而同比(与去年同期相比)增长2.4%，略高于4月份的 2.3%。剔除食品和能源商品与服务后的核心通胀率环比增长0.1%，同样低于4月的0.2%，环比增长为 2.8%，与4月持平，但低于市场预期的2.9%。 从市场反应看，投资者对美国通胀形势依然担忧。11日收盘时，标准普尔500指数较前一日跌了 0.27%；十年期国债利率收于4.42%，即跌1.23%；美元指数以98.627报收，即跌0.45%。市场不宜过度 解读通胀数据 5月份的报告较为温和，主要原因是肉食(在一篮子商品与服务中的权重为1.648，以下相同)、能源 (6.387)、服装(2.539)、新车(4.352)、二手车(2.385)和交通 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the impact of Trump's second term on global markets, particularly the decline of the US dollar, leading to a consensus on "de-dollarization" [1] - The dollar index has fallen from a peak of 110.18 on January 18, 2025, to below 100, raising questions about a potential long-term depreciation of the dollar [1] - A closed-door event featuring analysts will provide insights into the long-term trends of the dollar and its implications for global and Chinese assets [1] Group 1 - The dollar index's significant drop indicates a loss of market confidence in dollar assets, prompting discussions about a major bear market for the dollar [1] - The upcoming closed-door sessions will feature prominent analysts, including Kevin Wang from Clocktower Group, who will discuss the potential for the largest dollar bear market in history [1][2] - The sessions aim to help participants understand the broader trends in global assets and clarify investment strategies in light of the dollar's trajectory [1] Group 2 - Another closed-door event is scheduled for June 15, featuring economist Peng Fu, focusing on a review of key asset trends in the first half of 2025 and opportunities and risks for the second half [4] - Membership in the Alpha closed-door sessions provides access to a total of 13 online discussions throughout the year, enhancing participants' understanding of market dynamics [4]

Core Viewpoints - The current market lacks direction, but volatility in Q3 presents opportunities for allocation [1] - U.S. assets are not pessimistic, with potential for outperformance; U.S. stocks may provide buying opportunities upon correction [1][6] - The Chinese market focuses more on structural opportunities, with Hong Kong stocks outperforming A-shares [2][12] U.S. Market Insights - The U.S. credit cycle may restart, but Q3 is expected to remain chaotic, providing buying opportunities during volatility [6][9] - Tax cuts are expected to support consumer spending and stimulate corporate investment, with a projected deficit rate reduction in FY2025 [8][9] - The Federal Reserve may lower interest rates twice to 3.75-4%, supporting real estate and traditional investments [7][9] Chinese Market Insights - The Chinese credit cycle is still in a contraction phase, with high costs suppressing private sector leverage [10][11] - Structural market conditions lead to "asset scarcity," with investors seeking stable returns or growth-oriented assets [11][12] - The focus on Hong Kong stocks reflects a preference for quality assets amid limited growth expectations in the broader market [12]

Group 1 - The overall market is expected to maintain volatility in the third quarter, which may provide opportunities for asset allocation as major markets have already recovered from tariff impacts [1][2] - The U.S. market is not pessimistic, with potential for outperforming; U.S. Treasury bonds present trading opportunities, and the stock market may offer buy-in chances if it corrects due to tariffs and debt issues [1][3] - The Chinese market is characterized by structural opportunities, with Hong Kong stocks expected to outperform A-shares; the market may remain volatile, providing chances to buy quality assets at lower costs [2][11] Group 2 - The credit cycle in the U.S. has shifted from expansion to contraction, with expectations of a rebalancing in the second half of the year; key factors influencing this cycle include tariffs, fiscal policy, and AI [4][5] - The U.S. credit cycle may restart, primarily driven by private sector expansion, while fiscal policy is expected to slightly contract; this scenario is favorable for U.S. assets [9][10] - In contrast, China's credit cycle is still in contraction, with high costs suppressing the willingness of the private sector to leverage; the need for improved return expectations is critical for recovery [11][12] Group 3 - The current 10% tariff rate may represent the best-case scenario for the near future, with limited impact expected if it aligns with other markets [13] - The limited fiscal stimulus and localized boosts from technology and new consumption sectors are likely to prevent a full-scale recovery in China's credit cycle, leading to a structural market environment [14] - Investors are advised to focus on stable return assets or growth-oriented assets, with Hong Kong stocks being a primary focus due to the ongoing structural allocation trend [14]

Group 1: Dollar's Role and Challenges - The dollar has transitioned through various roles, from a dominant currency post-World War I to a key player in the Bretton Woods system, but its fundamental financing function is being misaligned [1][4] - The dollar is increasingly used as a tool for financial sanctions by a few countries, leading to a deconstruction of the credit preference associated with it [1][4] - Tariff policies under the Trump administration have negatively impacted the dollar's credibility, as increased tariffs create risks for global and U.S. economies, reducing the demand for dollars [2][3] Group 2: Economic Implications of Tariff Policies - Trump's tariffs aim to reduce trade deficits and encourage domestic manufacturing, but they may ultimately decrease dollar outflow and international demand for the dollar [3][4] - The focus on goods trade neglects the service trade, where the U.S. has a surplus, and retaliatory measures from other countries could further diminish dollar influence [3][4] Group 3: U.S. National Debt and Dollar Credibility - The U.S. national debt has surpassed $36 trillion, with interest payments becoming the fastest-growing part of government spending, raising concerns about the sustainability of U.S. fiscal policy [7][8] - The cycle of increasing fiscal deficits and national debt issuance is eroding the credibility of the dollar, as the government struggles to manage its financial obligations [6][8] Group 4: Global Shift Away from the Dollar - Countries are actively seeking alternatives to the dollar, establishing bilateral trade agreements and payment systems to reduce reliance on the dollar [10][11] - The trend towards "de-dollarization" is gaining momentum, with various nations exploring digital currencies and alternative payment mechanisms, indicating a shift towards a more diversified global monetary system [11][12]