Group 1 - The European Central Bank (ECB) is concerned that the strong euro may have negative consequences, with the euro rising 14% to 1.18 against the dollar, contrary to expectations of parity this year [2] - ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos stated that while the current exchange rate of 1.18 is manageable, a rise above 1.20 would complicate matters significantly [2] - The strong euro is lowering import prices, which could dampen inflation, while increasing export costs, impacting the trade-dependent European economy amid trade tensions with the US [2] Group 2 - Tomasz Wieladek, Chief European Economist at PIMCO, warned that if the euro reaches 1.25 against the dollar, the ECB may need to cut interest rates by 50 basis points to mitigate inflation and economic impacts [3] - The ECB has already halved interest rates to 2% since June 2024, but the Federal Reserve's rates remain significantly higher, leading to unusual capital flows towards Europe [3] - ECB President Christine Lagarde indicated that the dollar is facing issues, prompting investors to seek alternatives, although she did not directly address the impact on monetary policy [3] Group 3 - Concerns are rising within the ECB as inflation in the eurozone reached the 2% mid-term target in June, with expectations of a drop to 1.6% next year [4] - Pooja Kumra from TD Securities warned that a strong euro combined with US tariffs could lead the eurozone back into a deflationary environment similar to the 2010s [4] - There is a dilemma for the ECB regarding currency intervention, as unilateral actions could backfire, and a prominent decision-maker noted that global central banks generally avoid such interventions [4] Group 4 - Some investors remain optimistic, with Mike Riddell from Fidelity International stating that the EU's significant trade surplus supports the euro's strength, suggesting that policymakers' complaints about the strong euro are unfounded [4] - Croatian central bank governor Boris Vujcic remarked that the current exchange rate is not abnormal and has been stable compared to historical levels since the euro's inception [4]

Group 1 - The international gold price continues to rise amid a stable background, but the upward momentum is limited, facing technical resistance at the $3400 level [1] - The OECD has downgraded global economic growth forecasts, predicting a growth rate of 2.9% for both 2025 and 2026, lower than previous estimates of 3.1% and 3.0% [1] - The ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, have heightened market risk aversion, further supporting gold prices [1][2] Group 2 - Concerns over economic recession, the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, and the escalation of the US-EU trade war are providing support for the gold market [2] - The current gold price is in an adjustment cycle after reaching a high of $3500, with resistance still present at the $3400 level [2] - The price range of $3325-$3335 is identified as an important support level, which if maintained, could allow gold to challenge the $3400 mark again [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing US-EU trade war, highlighting the implications of tariff changes and the role of the Sina Finance APP in providing timely information and analysis to investors during this turbulent period [1][2][3]. Group 1: Trade War Developments - On June 1, President Trump threatened to impose a 50% tariff on EU goods, later postponing the start date to July 9 after a call with EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen [1]. - Since the trade war began, the Sina Finance APP has been actively tracking key developments, including the US imposing a 25% tariff on EU steel and aluminum, and the EU's response with counter-tariffs on $26 billion worth of US goods [2]. Group 2: Economic Context and Analysis - The article provides insights into the economic background of the trade war, noting that in 2023, the EU had a trade surplus of €155.8 billion with the US, but a deficit of €104 billion in services [3]. - It details the timeline of tariff implementations and negotiations, including the phased approach of the EU's countermeasures and the specific products affected [3]. Group 3: Market Impact and Investor Tools - The trade war has significant effects on financial markets, with the Sina Finance APP offering comprehensive market data across various sectors, including stocks, futures, and foreign exchange [4][5]. - The APP provides real-time updates on market fluctuations, such as the performance of major US stock indices and the euro to dollar exchange rate, allowing investors to adjust their strategies accordingly [5]. Group 4: Features of the Sina Finance APP - The APP includes smart alerts and event notifications for critical financial indicators related to the trade war, helping investors stay informed and prepared [6]. - Additional features like AI stock analysis and fund flow tracking assist investors in navigating the complexities of the market during the trade war [6].

Core Points - Germany plans to impose a 10% digital services tax on major online platforms like Google and Meta, citing tax avoidance and the need for these companies to contribute more to the local economy [1][2] - The German government is dissatisfied with the lack of taxation on substantial profits earned by tech giants in the country, which they believe creates monopolistic structures and threatens free speech [1][3] - The proposed tax could generate hundreds of millions of euros in additional revenue, but there are concerns about whether this tax burden will be passed on to advertisers and users, potentially increasing costs for digital services [5] Group 1 - The German culture minister, Wolfram Weimer, is drafting legislation for a 10% digital services tax targeting large online platforms [1] - The German government has previously agreed to such a tax in coalition talks, indicating a commitment to proceed despite potential trade tensions with the U.S. [1][4] - The tax proposal aligns Germany with other countries like the UK, France, and Italy that have implemented similar measures [2] Group 2 - There are concerns that the tax could escalate trade disputes with the U.S., as past actions have led to investigations and potential retaliatory tariffs against countries imposing digital taxes [3][4] - The tax could have broader implications for the global profitability of tech giants, with potential stock price volatility if other nations follow suit [5] - Alphabet and Meta have not yet responded to the tax proposal, but market sentiment is already adjusting to the uncertainty surrounding it [5]

Core Points - The U.S. court ruling deemed Trump's reciprocal tariff plan illegal, yet EU and U.S. trade negotiators will still meet as scheduled next week [1] - The ruling pertains to a 10% baseline tariff announced by Trump on April 2, but does not affect the 25% tariffs on EU automobiles, steel, and aluminum [1] - The ruling comes at a critical juncture, as Trump had previously threatened a 50% tariff on EU goods, which he later retracted after a call with EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen [1] - The EU is reportedly prepared to accept a 10% reciprocal tariff rate, indicating a shift from a more hardline stance [1] - The 10% reciprocal tariff impacts approximately 70% of EU exports, valued at around €380 billion [1] Negotiation Strategies - A former EU trade official suggests that if the EU uses the U.S. court ruling as an excuse to withdraw from negotiations, it would be a mistake [2] - The focus of negotiations should fundamentally center on steel, aluminum, and automobile tariffs, while seeking solutions for affected industries [2] - There is a concern that if the EU withdraws from negotiations, it could lead to an escalation of the U.S.-EU trade conflict [2] - The EU Commission is advised to capitalize on the current U.S. vulnerability to minimize tariff losses [2] Timing and Strategy - An EU diplomat indicated that the court ruling provides the EU with additional time, suggesting there is no immediate need for action [3] - The EU Commission has refrained from commenting on the U.S. court ruling [3]

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views - The US "soft data" has significantly recovered, with the May consumer confidence index and Dallas Fed business activity index exceeding expectations. Market risk appetite has been boosted, leading to a strong rebound in US stocks, a rise in the US dollar index, and a decline in gold, copper, and oil prices. In China, industrial enterprise profits have shown a weak recovery, and the A-share market has been volatile and differentiated [2][3]. - Precious metal prices are under pressure due to the easing of the US - EU trade war and the return of market risk appetite. Gold and silver futures closed lower on Tuesday [4]. - Copper prices are expected to oscillate at a high level. The rebound of the US dollar index puts pressure on copper prices, while disruptions in overseas mines and low domestic inventories provide support [5][6]. - Aluminum prices are expected to continue to oscillate. Low inventory provides support, but the expectation of the consumption off - season exerts pressure. Attention should be paid to inventory changes [7][8]. - Alumina prices are expected to oscillate with both support and pressure. The reduction of imported bauxite in Guinea provides bottom - price support, while the resumption of production in domestic southern enterprises limits the upside [9][10]. - Zinc prices are expected to return to low - level oscillation. The market has digested the news of extended maintenance in South China, and supply is expected to recover [11]. - Lead prices are expected to maintain range - bound oscillation. Tight lead ore supply and cost support limit the adjustment space, but weak consumption lacks a strong rebound driver [12]. - Tin prices are expected to continue high - level adjustment. Supply and demand are relatively balanced, and the market is waiting for more driving factors [13][14]. - Industrial silicon prices are expected to continue to decline. Supply is tightening, but demand is weak, and social inventory has decreased slightly due to reduced production [15][16]. - Lithium carbonate prices are experiencing a large - scale position - changing. Short - term long - short competition may intensify. Attention can be paid to the effectiveness of the bottom signal of the 09 contract [17][18]. - Nickel prices are expected to oscillate at a low level. Although macro - economic data is better than expected, weak demand drags down prices [19][20]. - Oil prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term. OPEC + is expected to maintain significant production increases in July, and the US - Iran negotiation has eased contradictions [21]. - Steel prices are expected to run weakly. Spot trading volume has increased slightly, but demand is weak, and the market sentiment is poor [22]. - Iron ore prices are expected to run weakly. Supply pressure is emerging, and demand is weakening as the steel market enters the off - season [23][24]. - Bean and rapeseed meal prices are expected to oscillate. US soybean sowing progress is slightly lower than expected, and Brazilian exports are normal. Rapeseed meal prices are supported by tight supply [25][26]. - Palm oil prices are expected to continue to oscillate. There is no clear driving factor, and the market is waiting for new information [27]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Metal Main Varieties Yesterday's Trading Data - SHFE copper closed at 77,900 yuan/ton, down 0.47%; LME copper closed at 9,596 dollars/ton, down 0.19% [28]. - SHFE aluminum closed at 20,040 yuan/ton, down 0.57%; LME aluminum closed at 2,483 dollars/ton, up 0.69% [28]. - SHFE zinc closed at 22,330 yuan/ton, up 0.65%; LME zinc closed at 2,709 dollars/ton, down 0.13% [28]. - SHFE lead closed at 16,825 yuan/ton, up 0.18%; LME lead closed at 1,989 dollars/ton, down 0.28% [28]. - SHFE nickel closed at 122,310 yuan/ton, down 0.38%; LME nickel closed at 15,380 dollars/ton, down 1.22% [28]. - SHFE tin closed at 264,050 yuan/ton, down 0.21%; LME tin data was not available [28]. - COMEX gold closed at 3,327.40 dollars/ounce, down 0.90%; SHFE silver closed at 8,217.00 yuan/kg, down 0.76%; COMEX silver closed at 33.39 dollars/ounce, down 0.76% [28]. - SHFE rebar closed at 2,980 yuan/ton, down 0.80%; SHFE hot - rolled coil closed at 3,111 yuan/ton, down 0.86% [28]. - DCE iron ore closed at 698.5 yuan/ton, down 1.13% [28]. 2. Industrial Data Perspective - For copper, SHFE copper主力 was at 77,900 yuan/ton, down 370 yuan; LME copper 3 - month was at 9,596 dollars/ton, down 18 dollars. LME inventory decreased by 2,575 tons to 162,150 tons [29]. - For nickel, SHFE nickel主力 was at 122,310 yuan/ton, down 470 yuan; LME nickel 3 - month was at 15,380 dollars/ton. LME inventory was 199,998 tons [29]. - For zinc, SHFE zinc主力 was at 22,330 yuan/ton, up 145 yuan; LME zinc was at 2,709 dollars/ton, down 3.5 dollars. LME inventory decreased by 2,350 tons to 151,150 tons [30]. - For lead, SHFE lead主力 was at 16,825 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; LME lead was at 1,988.5 dollars/ton, down 5.5 dollars. LME inventory decreased by 1,650 tons to 292,375 tons [30]. - For aluminum, SHFE aluminum连三 was at 19,925 yuan/ton, down 105 yuan; LME aluminum 3 - month was at 2,483 dollars/ton. LME inventory decreased by 3,000 tons to 381,575 tons [30]. - For alumina, SHFE alumina主力 was at 3,018 yuan/ton, down 42 yuan; the national average spot price of alumina was 3,275 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan [30]. - For tin, SHFE tin主力 was at 264,050 yuan/ton, down 550 yuan; LME tin data was not available. LME inventory decreased by 2,665 tons to 0 tons [30]. - For precious metals, there were no significant changes in SHFE gold and silver prices on May 27 compared to the previous day. COMEX gold and silver inventories had some changes [31][34]. - For steel products, the rebar主力 was at 2,980 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan; the iron ore主力 was at 698.5 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan [34]. - For lithium carbonate, relevant price data on May 27 was not fully available [34]. - For industrial silicon, the industrial silicon主力 was at 7,610 yuan/ton, down 305 yuan [34]. - For beans and rapeseeds, CBOT soybean主力 was at 1,061.75 cents/bushel; the bean粕主力 was at 2,966 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan; the菜粕主力 was at 2,599 yuan/ton, up 33 yuan [34][36].

Group 1 - The core point of the news is the unexpected shift in the U.S.-EU trade negotiations, where President Trump agreed to extend the deadline for tariff discussions to July 9 after a phone call with EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen [1][2] - Trump had previously threatened to impose a 50% tariff on EU goods starting June 1, citing a lack of progress in negotiations and accusing the EU of taking advantage of the U.S. in trade [1][3] - The EU's new trade proposal aims to address tariffs and non-tariff barriers, as well as enhance economic security and cooperation on global challenges [3][4] Group 2 - The White House expressed frustration over the EU's lack of substantial proposals, particularly regarding the U.S. demand for a digital tax to be included in negotiations [4] - The U.S. Treasury Deputy Secretary highlighted the complexity of negotiating with the EU as a whole while also addressing non-tariff barriers with individual European countries [4] - If no agreement is reached, the EU has prepared a list of retaliatory tariffs valued at €21 billion, including U.S. corn, wheat, motorcycles, and clothing, and is discussing another list worth €95 billion targeting Boeing aircraft, cars, and bourbon whiskey [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - In the coming week (May 26 - May 30), both the prices of Dalian soybean meal and soybean futures are expected to fluctuate. For soybean meal, the negative factors have been priced in, and there is limited downside, but there is no clear positive driver, so the price is expected to oscillate, and the focus will gradually shift to the weather in the U.S. soybean - producing areas. For domestic soybeans, the limited remaining supply and firm spot prices are supportive, while the potential state reserve release is a resistance, so the price is expected to trade in a range [6]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Price Movements Last Week (May 19 - May 23) - **U.S. Soybean Futures**: The U.S. soybean futures prices first rose due to concerns about floods in Argentina and slow spring - sowing progress, as well as short - covering, and then fell due to concerns about an escalating U.S. - EU trade war. The weekly increase of the U.S. soybean main 07 contract was 0.93%, and that of the U.S. soybean meal main 07 contract was 1.47% [1]. - **Domestic Soybean Meal and Soybean Futures**: Domestic soybean meal futures prices first fell due to weak spot markets and then rose because of the rebound of the spot market, the reduced marginal impact of previous negative factors, and the rebound of U.S. soybeans. The weekly increase of the domestic soybean meal main m2509 contract was 1.83%. Domestic soybean futures prices first rose and then fell. The support came from the firm spot price and limited remaining supply, while the resistance was the expected state reserve release. The weekly increase of the domestic soybean main a2507 contract was 0.10% [2]. 2. International Soybean Market Fundamentals Last Week (May 19 - May 23) - **U.S. Soybean Sales and Shipment**: The net sales of U.S. soybeans decreased week - on - week, in line with expectations. In the week ending May 15, the 2024/25 U.S. soybean export shipment was about 250,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of about 42%, and the cumulative export shipment was about 44.15 million tons, a year - on - year increase of about 12%. The shipment to China was 0, and the cumulative shipment to China was about 22.41 million tons (compared with about 23.7 million tons last year). The total weekly net sales of the current and next market years were about 325,000 tons (compared with about 770,000 tons the previous week) [2]. - **U.S. Soybean Planting Progress**: As of the week ending May 19, the U.S. soybean planting progress was 66% (market expectation: 65%), 52% last year, and the five - year average was 53%, which was slightly bearish [2]. - **Brazilian Soybean CNF Premium, Import Cost, and Crushing Margin**: As of the week ending May 23, the average CNF premium of Brazilian soybeans for July - August delivery increased slightly week - on - week, the average import cost decreased slightly, and the average crushing margin increased [2]. - **U.S. Soybean Main - Producing Area Weather Forecast**: From May 25 to June 7, the precipitation in the U.S. soybean main - producing areas will be slightly above normal, and the temperature will be low first and then high, which will mainly have a neutral impact on the planting progress [2]. 3. Domestic Soybean Meal Spot Market Last Week (May 19 - May 23) - **Trading Volume**: The trading volume of soybean meal increased week - on - week, mainly due to the large - scale trading of far - month basis futures. The average daily trading volume of mainstream oil mills was about 390,000 tons, compared with about 80,000 tons the previous week [4]. - **Pick - up Volume**: The pick - up volume of soybean meal increased week - on - week. The average daily pick - up volume of major oil mills was about 179,000 tons, compared with about 157,000 tons the previous week [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of soybean meal (Zhangjiagang) decreased week - on - week. The weekly average was about - 4 yuan/ton, compared with about 168 yuan/ton the previous week and about - 89 yuan/ton last year [4]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of soybean meal increased week - on - week and decreased year - on - year. As of the week ending May 16, the inventory of mainstream oil mills was about 100,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of about 34% and a year - on - year decrease of about 83% [4]. - **Crushing Volume**: The soybean crushing volume increased week - on - week and is expected to increase slightly next week. The weekly crushing volume was about 2.21 million tons (compared with 1.91 million tons the previous week and 2.01 million tons last year), and the operating rate was about 62% (compared with 54% the previous week and 57% last year). Next week, the crushing volume is expected to be about 2.25 million tons (compared with 2.16 million tons last year), and the operating rate will be 57% (compared with 61% last year) [4]. - **Imported Soybean Auction**: The成交 rate of the imported soybean auction was about 32%, and the成交 price decreased. On May 21, the planned auction volume was about 266,700 tons, the actual成交 volume was about 85,600 tons, and the average price was about 3,540 yuan/ton (compared with about 3,643 yuan/ton on May 13) [4]. 4. Domestic Soybean Spot Market Last Week (May 19 - May 23) - **Soybean Price**: The soybean price was firm. In Northeast China, the purchase price of clean soybeans was 4,180 - 4,280 yuan/ton, basically flat or up 40 yuan/ton in some areas; in the Inner - Pass region, it was 5,100 - 5,240 yuan/ton, flat; in the sales areas, the price of Northeast edible soybeans was 4,580 - 4,820 yuan/ton, up 60 - 100 yuan/ton [5]. - **Northeast Production Area Situation**: Most of the new - season crop sowing in the Northeast has been completed. Some farmers are reluctant to sell, and traders are facing difficulties in sourcing, so they are turning to platform auctions. The market is still waiting for the state reserve release [5]. - **Sales Area Situation**: The soybean price in the sales areas increased due to the increase in the origin price, but the demand is weak due to seasonal factors, and the trading volume of dealers is slow [5].

Report Title - EU Carbon Market Market Briefing (Issue No. 55, 2025) [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - EUA has re - linked with TTF, and its price has rebounded significantly. The report suggests interval operation, with a pressure level of €75 and a support level of €66 [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Conditions - **Primary Market**: The auction price is 66.71 euros/ton (-0.13%), and the bid coverage ratio is 1.55 [2] - **Secondary Market**: The closing price of EUA futures is 70.1 euros/ton (2.94%), and the trading volume is 35,600 lots (0.05) [2] Strategy - It is recommended to conduct interval operations, with a pressure level of €75 and a support level of €66 [2] Core Logic - **Likely Positive Factors**: Tensions between Russia and Ukraine may bring geopolitical risk premiums; new sanctions on Russia by US senators; European major stock indices closed higher [2] - **Likely Negative Factors**: Trump's "Freedom Day" tariff plan may suppress the European economy; the end of the heating season and increased renewable energy generation are unfavorable to carbon prices; the EU may weaken its 2040 climate goals; Finland will close a coal - fired power plant [2][3]