Core Viewpoint The Central Economic Work Conference emphasizes the need for proactive macroeconomic policies to enhance economic stability and growth, focusing on expanding domestic demand, optimizing supply, and ensuring a strong start to the 14th Five-Year Plan. Group 1: Macroeconomic Policy Adjustments - The conference highlights the importance of increasing counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments to improve macroeconomic governance efficiency [2] - It is suggested that fiscal and monetary policies should work in tandem, with a focus on both existing and new policies to achieve stable growth and quality improvement [2] Group 2: Fiscal Policy - A more proactive fiscal policy is to be implemented, maintaining necessary fiscal deficits and total debt levels while optimizing expenditure structures [3] - Recommendations include raising the deficit rate to 4.5%-5% by 2026, with a broad deficit scale exceeding 16 trillion yuan [3] Group 3: Monetary Policy - The conference calls for a moderately loose monetary policy, utilizing various tools such as interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions to support economic growth [4] - It is anticipated that there may be 1-2 rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions in 2026, with a focus on maintaining liquidity and avoiding excessive asset price fluctuations [4] Group 4: Domestic Market Development - Emphasis is placed on building a strong domestic market, enhancing consumption, and optimizing the supply of quality goods and services [7] - The government aims to stimulate investment and improve the management of local government special bonds to invigorate private investment [7] Group 5: Innovation and Technology - The conference stresses the importance of innovation-driven growth, particularly in artificial intelligence and other emerging technologies [9] - Policies will be implemented to support high-value service industries and enhance the role of enterprises in innovation [9] Group 6: Capital Market Reforms - Continuous reforms in the capital market are highlighted, with a focus on enhancing the investment environment for long-term capital [10] - The aim is to improve the adaptability of listing standards for emerging industries and promote long-term investment products [10] Group 7: Green Transition - The conference outlines a commitment to a comprehensive green transition, focusing on energy efficiency and carbon reduction initiatives [13] - Plans include strengthening the carbon emissions trading market and promoting the use of renewable energy [13] Group 8: Real Estate Market Stability - The need to stabilize the real estate market is emphasized, with strategies to control inventory and improve supply [14] - The government aims to reform the housing provident fund system and promote the construction of quality housing [14]

Core Viewpoint - The analysis by Li Xunlei highlights potential investment opportunities arising from the "14th Five-Year Plan" and significant upcoming anniversaries, including the 105th anniversary of the founding of the Communist Party in 2026, the 100th anniversary of the founding of the People's Liberation Army in 2027, and the 80th anniversary of the founding of the People's Republic of China in 2029 [1][48]. Group 1: Highlights of the "14th Five-Year Plan" - The first highlight is the acceleration of technological self-reliance, with a focus on changing investment directions and targets in the manufacturing sector [41][22]. - The second highlight emphasizes the construction of a strong domestic market and the need to enhance consumption, particularly aligning with the preferences of the younger generation [42][66]. - The third highlight involves the establishment of a unified national market, aimed at removing policy and institutional barriers to facilitate resource flow and market efficiency [43][73]. Group 2: Economic Outlook - The economic growth target for 2026 is projected to be around 5%, with a general budget deficit rate of approximately 4.5% and a broad fiscal deficit expected to rise from 8.4% this year to 9% [45][79]. - Fiscal policy is anticipated to remain proactive, while monetary policy may have limited space due to the need for stability in the banking sector's net interest margin [80][81]. - The potential for structural investment opportunities is highlighted, particularly in high-tech sectors and the ongoing development of AI, which is viewed as having significant growth potential rather than being a bubble [86][85].