文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人： 文若愚（微信 LRsuperdope） 事项 2025 年 5 月，新增社融 2.29 万亿（前值 1.16 万亿），新增人民币贷款 6200 亿（前值 2800 亿）。社融 存量同比增长 8.7% （前值 8.7% ）， M2 同比增长 7.9% （前值 8% ），新口径 M1 同比增长 2.3% （前 值 1.5% ）。 核心观点 1 、在海外关税政策不确定性的影响下， 4 月和 5 月企业存款回落，企业现金流或承受一定程度的冲击。 2 、但在国内稳定资本市场政策的确定性的影响下，新增非银存款持续抬升， 4 月 5 月非银存款新增规模 是 2016 年以来同期最高值。 3 、政府层面，政府加速发债的背景下，新增存款规模相对偏慢，从这个视角来看政府债的下拨也相对偏 快，不过要关注后续政府债接近发行规模后的续航问题。 4 、从领先指标来看，企业居民存款剪刀差自 2024 年 9 月以来仍在持续改善，外部环境的不确定性并未打 破这一趋势，这或许意味着国内政策的确定性当下或是影响经济循环行为更重要的变量。 报 ...

Group 1: Financial Data Overview - In May 2025, new social financing (社融) reached 2.29 trillion RMB, up from 1.16 trillion RMB in the previous period[1] - New RMB loans amounted to 620 billion RMB, an increase from 280 billion RMB previously[1] - The year-on-year growth of social financing stock remained at 8.7%, consistent with the previous value[1] - M2 money supply grew by 7.9% year-on-year, slightly up from 8% previously[1] - New M1, under the new calculation, increased by 2.3% year-on-year, compared to 1.5% previously[1] Group 2: Deposit Trends - Non-bank deposits increased significantly, with a new scale of approximately 2.8 trillion RMB in April and May, the highest since 2016[7] - Corporate deposits fell by about 1.7 trillion RMB in April and May, indicating a potential cash flow impact due to external uncertainties[4] - The proportion of new household deposits and cash in M2 has been decreasing, suggesting a gradual "unfreezing" of liquidity[3] - The government accelerated bond issuance, with a net expenditure of approximately 1.1 trillion RMB in April and May, significantly higher than the average of 0.1 trillion RMB from 2017 to 2024[8] Group 3: Economic Implications - The improvement in the corporate-resident deposit gap since September 2024 suggests that domestic policy certainty is a crucial variable influencing economic behavior[2] - The current trend indicates that while household liquidity is gradually being released, corporate cash flow remains weak, potentially affecting production capabilities[26] - The government’s proactive fiscal measures and the increase in non-bank deposits are expected to support ongoing economic recovery despite external uncertainties[26]