Report Title - Glass: Low-level Volatility Continues, Focus on Peak-season Demand; Soda Ash: Supply Pressure Remains, Adopt Rebound Shorting Strategy [1] Report Core Views - For soda ash, the production remains at a high level, downstream low-price replenishment occurs but overall consumption fluctuates little, and the absolute inventory is high with limited fundamental drivers. In the short term, affected by market sentiment changes, the soda ash futures price rebounds and then falls. Overall, with a supply-demand imbalance, the strategy is to sell on rebounds. For glass, there is a slight inventory reduction in the short term, but demand has not significantly improved. Attention should be paid to the intensity of the next round of restocking [4][38]. Summary by Industry Soda Ash Price - This week, the spot price remained stable, and the price difference between heavy and light soda ash remained stable. The mainstream trade areas had North China heavy soda ash at 1325 (unchanged) and East China heavy soda ash at 1250 (unchanged). Last week, the prices of heavy and light soda ash slightly decreased, with the national heavy soda ash market price at 1285 and the light soda ash market price at 1245, and the heavy-light soda ash price difference at +40 (unchanged). The futures price rebounded slightly. The closing price of the main SA2501 contract was 1318 (+28), the 1-5 spread was -89 (-11), and the basis of the main 01 contract was -32 (-23) (using the national heavy soda ash average price) [5][10]. Supply - Last week, the soda ash production was 74.57 tons (-1.54, -2.02%), including 32.80 tons of light soda ash (-1.14) and 41.77 tons of heavy soda ash (-0.40). The operating rate was 85.53% (-1.76%), with the ammonia-soda method at 88.87% (-1.97%) and the combined soda method at 75.53% (-1.87%) [4][14]. Demand - Last week, the soda ash enterprise shipment volume was 78.76 tons, a week-on-week increase of +0.24%; the overall production-sales ratio was 105.62%, a week-on-week increase of +2.39%. Last week, the soda ash demand remained stable, and downstream enterprises mainly purchased based on rigid demand. Next week, the float glass is expected to increase slightly, while the photovoltaic glass is expected to decrease. In August, the soda ash imports were 0.03 tons, a month-on-month decrease of -0.29 tons; exports were 21.54 tons, a month-on-month increase of +5.41 tons, resulting in an increase in net exports [4][23]. Inventory - Last week, the soda ash enterprise inventory was 175.56 tons (-4.19, -2.33%), including 74.95 tons of light soda ash (-1.35) and 100.61 tons of heavy soda ash (-2.48). Both light and heavy soda ash inventories decreased [4][30]. Cost and Profit - Last week, the profit of the combined soda method (double tons) was -70.5 yuan/ton (-16); the profit of the ammonia-soda method was -36.75 yuan/ton (-0.45), showing overall stability [4][35]. Strategy - Given the high soda ash production, low-price downstream replenishment with little overall consumption fluctuation, and high absolute inventory, the fundamental drivers are limited. Considering the supply-demand imbalance, the strategy is to sell on rebounds [4]. Glass Price - Last week, the glass spot price remained stable with a slight increase. The ex-factory price of Wuhan Changli 5mm glass was 1160 (+40), and the ex-factory price of Shahe Anquan 5mm glass was 1088 (+12). The price difference between Changli and Shahe was +72 (+28). The futures price also rose. The closing price of the main 2601 contract was 1216 (+36), the 1-5 spread was -127 (-23), and using the Wuhan Changli ex-factory price as the spot benchmark, the basis of the main 01 contract was -56 (+4) [39][44]. Supply - Last week, the daily output of float glass in production was 16.02 tons, a week-on-week increase of +0.0%. The float glass production was 112.12 tons, a week-on-week increase of +0.0%. The operating rate of float glass was 76.01%, a week-on-week increase of +0.0%, and the capacity utilization rate was 80.08%, a week-on-week increase of +0.0%. Last week, there were 296 domestic glass production lines after excluding zombie lines, with 225 in production and 71 cold-repaired and shut down [38][50]. Demand - As of early September, the order days of deep-processing enterprises were 10.4 days, an increase of +0.75 compared to the previous period. The downstream demand recovery was slow. The real estate end-recovery situation was still weak, with the cumulative year-on-year decline of the completion end from January to August at -17%, and the front-end new construction willingness still low, with the cumulative year-on-year decline from January to July at -19.5%. According to CAAM data, in August, the automobile production and sales were 281.5 million and 285.7 million respectively, with month-on-month increases of +8.65% and +10.18% and year-on-year increases of +12.96% and +16.14%, respectively, which were at relatively high levels in recent years [38][59]. Inventory - Last week, the total inventory of the national float glass sample enterprises was 60.908 million weight cases, a week-on-week decrease of -1.10%. Different regions had different inventory changes, with North China increasing by 3.34%, East China decreasing by -1.35%, Central China decreasing by -5.41%, South China decreasing by -1.44%, Southwest increasing by 0.45%, Northeast decreasing by -2.27%, and Northwest decreasing by -6.25% [38][65]. Cost and Profit - Last week, the profit of coal-gas-fired float glass was +94.03 yuan/ton (-6.37); the profit of natural-gas-fired float glass was -164.84 yuan/ton (+9.29); the profit of petroleum-coke-fired float glass was 41.37 yuan/ton (+11.43). The industry profit remained stable in the short term [38][79]. Strategy - There is a slight inventory reduction in the short term, but demand has not significantly improved. Attention should be paid to the intensity of the next round of restocking [38].

玻璃：需求仍偏弱，预防宏观事件扰动 纯碱：基本面偏空，轻仓参与 正信期货玻璃纯碱周报 20240623 首席研究员：徐婧 投资咨询编号：Z0012091 Email: xujing@zxqh.net Tel：027-68851659 首席研究员：赵婷 投资咨询编号： Z0016344 Email: zhaot@zxqh.net Tel： 027-68851659 1、纯碱内容要点 | 因素 | 因素综述 | 驱动方向 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供应 | 上周纯碱产量75.37万吨（+1.36，+1.80%)，其中轻碱产量33.84万吨（+0.41），重碱产量41.53万吨（+0.95）。纯碱开 | 中性 | | | 工率86.46%（+1.56%），其中氨碱86.57%（+6.53%），联产80.59%（-0.47%）。 | | | 需求 | 上周纯碱企业出货量为71.43万吨，环比上周+4.92%；纯碱整体产销率为94.65%，环比上周+2.61%。上周纯碱需求略有转 | 中性 | | | 弱，下游企业以刚需拿货为主。下周浮法预期略有增量，光伏玻璃有减量预期。5月纯碱进口0.15万吨， ...

文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人： 文若愚（微信 LRsuperdope） 事项 2025 年 5 月，新增社融 2.29 万亿（前值 1.16 万亿），新增人民币贷款 6200 亿（前值 2800 亿）。社融 存量同比增长 8.7% （前值 8.7% ）， M2 同比增长 7.9% （前值 8% ），新口径 M1 同比增长 2.3% （前 值 1.5% ）。 核心观点 1 、在海外关税政策不确定性的影响下， 4 月和 5 月企业存款回落，企业现金流或承受一定程度的冲击。 2 、但在国内稳定资本市场政策的确定性的影响下，新增非银存款持续抬升， 4 月 5 月非银存款新增规模 是 2016 年以来同期最高值。 3 、政府层面，政府加速发债的背景下，新增存款规模相对偏慢，从这个视角来看政府债的下拨也相对偏 快，不过要关注后续政府债接近发行规模后的续航问题。 4 、从领先指标来看，企业居民存款剪刀差自 2024 年 9 月以来仍在持续改善，外部环境的不确定性并未打 破这一趋势，这或许意味着国内政策的确定性当下或是影响经济循环行为更重要的变量。 报 ...

Group 1: Financial Data Overview - In May 2025, new social financing (社融) reached 2.29 trillion RMB, up from 1.16 trillion RMB in the previous period[1] - New RMB loans amounted to 620 billion RMB, an increase from 280 billion RMB previously[1] - The year-on-year growth of social financing stock remained at 8.7%, consistent with the previous value[1] - M2 money supply grew by 7.9% year-on-year, slightly up from 8% previously[1] - New M1, under the new calculation, increased by 2.3% year-on-year, compared to 1.5% previously[1] Group 2: Deposit Trends - Non-bank deposits increased significantly, with a new scale of approximately 2.8 trillion RMB in April and May, the highest since 2016[7] - Corporate deposits fell by about 1.7 trillion RMB in April and May, indicating a potential cash flow impact due to external uncertainties[4] - The proportion of new household deposits and cash in M2 has been decreasing, suggesting a gradual "unfreezing" of liquidity[3] - The government accelerated bond issuance, with a net expenditure of approximately 1.1 trillion RMB in April and May, significantly higher than the average of 0.1 trillion RMB from 2017 to 2024[8] Group 3: Economic Implications - The improvement in the corporate-resident deposit gap since September 2024 suggests that domestic policy certainty is a crucial variable influencing economic behavior[2] - The current trend indicates that while household liquidity is gradually being released, corporate cash flow remains weak, potentially affecting production capabilities[26] - The government’s proactive fiscal measures and the increase in non-bank deposits are expected to support ongoing economic recovery despite external uncertainties[26]