以下文章来源于申万宏源策略 ，作者申万宏源策略 申万宏源策略 . 我们强调体系性、实战性 一、投资者普遍对牛市有期待，但对短期市场的分歧有所加大。总结短期市场面临的阻力： 1. 25Q3市场预期经济回落 + 政策重点是调结构，宏观环境暂时不支持指数向上突破。2. 牛市结构主线尚未确立。牛市中要做动量，但最强动量 应该从牛市的核心叙事中诞生。医药和海外算力是独立高景气，但牛市主线需要内涵外延更大纵深，国内科技突破、全球市占率高的制造业反内 卷，才是潜在的牛市主线方向。 牛市行情逐步启动正在成为市场共识，但对短期市场，投资者仍有较大分歧。我们总结短期市场面临的阻力：1. 反内卷强化了2026年中游制造供 给出清的预期，但市场对需求侧信心仍明显不足。市场预期25H2经济弱于25H1，且政策重点偏向调结构。2026年需求改善线索仍不清晰。这个 宏观组合可能暂时不支持指数向上突破。2. 牛市结构主线尚未确立。牛市中要做动量，但最强的动量应该与牛市核心叙事直接相关。医药更偏向 于独立的产业趋势。而海外算力链是全球AI扩散行情的一部分，但对于A股而言，海外算力链的投资机会是收敛的，分化的。而能够作为牛市主 线的结构线索，应 ...

Group 1 - Investors generally expect a bull market, but there is increasing divergence regarding the short-term market outlook. Key short-term obstacles include economic downturn expectations for Q3 2025 and a policy focus on structural adjustments, which temporarily do not support an upward breakthrough of the index. The main bull market structure has yet to be established, with potential directions being domestic technological breakthroughs and high global market share manufacturing reversing inward competition [1][5][6] Group 2 - The bull market atmosphere is unlikely to disappear easily. Although the macroeconomic combination in Q3 is unfavorable, it will not affect the expected improvement in the supply-demand structure in 2026, only leading to minor adjustments. Key factors that could genuinely impact the bull market atmosphere include significant demand decline around mid-2026 and the competitiveness of Chinese manufacturing. If the competitive advantage of Chinese manufacturing is constrained, it could undermine the bull market atmosphere [7][8][9] Group 3 - Even if the market experiences adjustments, there will still be opportunities. Before the bull market main line is established, the market can maintain characteristics seen in recent times, such as sector rotation and high micro-activity, with small-cap growth continuing to outperform. This environment is characterized by a lack of demand highlights, a need for time in supply adjustments, and controllable risks in the stock market [9][10] Group 4 - The core view of the market remains unchanged: A-shares may experience fluctuations before early September, with inherent adjustment pressures afterward. Policies to stabilize capital market expectations may be re-initiated. Time is a friend of the bull market, as it supports fundamental improvements and incremental capital inflows. The expectation is that Q4 2025 will perform better than Q3 2025, with 2026 showing further improvements [10][11] Group 5 - Short-term strong sectors such as pharmaceuticals and overseas computing are high-prosperity directions that reflect market expectations for the bull market. However, the relative cost-effectiveness of these sectors has decreased, indicating that future performance may align more closely with the overall market. New consumption is currently a relatively high-cost-effective direction that may see a rotation in the near term [10][11]