Core Viewpoint - The market consensus is gradually shifting towards the initiation of a bull market, but there are significant short-term divergences among investors regarding market conditions and expectations [3][4]. Short-term Market Challenges - The market faces several short-term challenges, including expectations of economic slowdown in Q3 2025 and a policy focus on structural adjustments, which may not support a breakout in indices [2][3]. - The main structural narrative of the bull market has yet to be established, with current high momentum sectors like pharmaceuticals and overseas computing being seen as independent trends rather than the core narrative of the bull market [3][4]. Potential Bull Market Directions - Two potential directions for the bull market structure include: 1. Breakthroughs in domestic technology, particularly in AI and robotics, which could lead to a broader market expansion across infrastructure, hardware, software applications, and business models [3][4]. 2. High global market share manufacturing engaging in anti-involution strategies, which could enhance industry concentration and pricing power [3][4]. Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The bull market atmosphere is expected to persist despite unfavorable macroeconomic conditions in Q3, as the long-term supply-demand dynamics are projected to improve by 2026 [4][5]. - Key factors that could impact the bull market sentiment include significant demand declines around mid-2026 and constraints on China's manufacturing competitiveness [5][6]. Sector Performance and Investment Opportunities - Short-term strong sectors include pharmaceuticals and overseas computing, which reflect high growth expectations but may face challenges in maintaining independent performance [7][8]. - The defense and military sector is anticipated to have repeated opportunities before early September, while new consumption sectors may see rotational gains [8][10]. - The Hong Kong stock market is highlighted as a potentially leading market in the bull cycle, with a focus on pricing trends that align with fundamental expectations [8][10].

8月9日，申万宏源在发布的研报中表示，牛市行情逐步启动正在成为市场共识，但对短期市场，投资者 仍有较大分歧。申万宏源总结认为，短期市场面临的阻力有： 一是第三季度市场预期经济回落 + 政策 重点是调结构，宏观环境暂时不支持指数向上突破。二是牛市结构主线尚未确立。牛市中要做动量，但 最强动量应该从牛市的核心叙事中诞生。医药和海外算力是独立高景气，但牛市主线需要内涵外延更大 纵深，国内科技突破、全球市占率高的制造业反内卷，才是潜在的牛市主线方向。 ...

Group 1 - Investors generally expect a bull market, but there is increasing divergence regarding the short-term market outlook. Key short-term obstacles include economic downturn expectations for Q3 2025 and a policy focus on structural adjustments, which temporarily do not support an upward breakthrough of the index. The main bull market structure has yet to be established, with potential directions being domestic technological breakthroughs and high global market share manufacturing reversing inward competition [1][5][6] Group 2 - The bull market atmosphere is unlikely to disappear easily. Although the macroeconomic combination in Q3 is unfavorable, it will not affect the expected improvement in the supply-demand structure in 2026, only leading to minor adjustments. Key factors that could genuinely impact the bull market atmosphere include significant demand decline around mid-2026 and the competitiveness of Chinese manufacturing. If the competitive advantage of Chinese manufacturing is constrained, it could undermine the bull market atmosphere [7][8][9] Group 3 - Even if the market experiences adjustments, there will still be opportunities. Before the bull market main line is established, the market can maintain characteristics seen in recent times, such as sector rotation and high micro-activity, with small-cap growth continuing to outperform. This environment is characterized by a lack of demand highlights, a need for time in supply adjustments, and controllable risks in the stock market [9][10] Group 4 - The core view of the market remains unchanged: A-shares may experience fluctuations before early September, with inherent adjustment pressures afterward. Policies to stabilize capital market expectations may be re-initiated. Time is a friend of the bull market, as it supports fundamental improvements and incremental capital inflows. The expectation is that Q4 2025 will perform better than Q3 2025, with 2026 showing further improvements [10][11] Group 5 - Short-term strong sectors such as pharmaceuticals and overseas computing are high-prosperity directions that reflect market expectations for the bull market. However, the relative cost-effectiveness of these sectors has decreased, indicating that future performance may align more closely with the overall market. New consumption is currently a relatively high-cost-effective direction that may see a rotation in the near term [10][11]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⾦融衍⽣品策略⽇报 2025-07-02 股市情绪偏暖，债市情绪有所企稳 股指期货：政策开始关注制造业利润 股指期权：备兑防御为主 国债期货：债市情绪有所企稳 股指期货方面，政策开始关注制造业利润。新的热点主题接力，恒科 创新药指数剔除CXO公司，光伏玻璃推进减产，指向产能出清加速，推动 医药、有色行业领涨。另外，中央财经委会议强调治理低价无序竞争、 推动落后产能有序退出、树立正确政绩观，或指向制造业部分行业"反内 卷"，有望推动产业链利润触底，利好通胀链，观察进一步落地措施。 在中报预告的背景下，或强化对业绩预增的关注。情绪偏暖环境下，保留 多头配置，操作上，继续配置IM多单。 ⾦融衍⽣品团队 研究员: 康遵禹 从业资格号:F03090802 投资咨询号:Z0016853 股指期权方面，备兑防御为主。期权方面，我们昨日重点关注的市场 成交额出现持续回落，交易流动性不及预期。在流动性低迷的衍生品市场 环境下，情绪指标展示同步性而并未指引性，同时隐含波动率的变化也仅 仅对应行情当日涨跌，各个品种平均隐含波动率下行0.52%。当前期权流 动性和波动率的 ...