国际经济秩序

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搞不动中国,美与日本谈判,石破茂态度突变,给了美“当头一棒”
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-06-09 03:11
Core Viewpoint - Japan is leveraging a cooperation proposal related to China in exchange for concessions on tariffs during the ongoing US-Japan trade negotiations, which have been stalled since the implementation of strict tariff policies by the Trump administration [1][3]. Group 1: Trade Negotiations - Japan's chief trade negotiator, Akizawa Ryo, is participating in the fifth round of tariff negotiations with the US, aiming to address the approximately $60 billion trade deficit between the two countries [1]. - The US has maintained a hardline stance on tariffs, particularly in the automotive and steel sectors, insisting on measures to eliminate the trade deficit [1][3]. - Japan's willingness to compromise has shifted due to changing international circumstances, indicating a more assertive negotiation strategy [1][3]. Group 2: Cooperation Proposals - Japan's cooperation proposal includes leveraging its advantages in rare earth processing and recycling to assist the US in utilizing globally sourced rare earth materials, as well as exploring collaboration in graphite and gallium [1]. - In the semiconductor sector, Japan plans to purchase billions of dollars' worth of semiconductor products from US companies like Nvidia and is considering assistance in producing materials needed for chip manufacturing [1][3]. Group 3: Energy and Shipbuilding - Japan is considering increasing imports of US liquefied natural gas and has proposed support for new projects in Alaska and increased production in Louisiana and Texas [3]. - In shipbuilding, Japan aims to collaborate with the US to build icebreakers, taking into account the influence of China [3]. Group 4: Internal US Dynamics - The US negotiation team is experiencing significant internal divisions, with differing views among key officials, complicating the negotiation process for Japan [3]. - The lack of coordination and information sharing among US officials has led to repeated discussions and delays in the negotiation process [3]. Group 5: Japan's Strategic Position - Japan holds significant leverage with its holdings of US Treasury bonds, and any large-scale sell-off could exert substantial pressure on the US economy [5]. - The dynamics of US-China relations have provided Japan with insights and confidence to adopt a firmer negotiating stance [5]. Group 6: International Implications - The outcome of the US-Japan trade negotiations will not only impact bilateral economic relations but also have broader implications for regional and global economic structures [5][7]. - Japan's strategy must consider the potential backlash from China if its cooperation proposals adversely affect Chinese interests, highlighting the risks involved in the negotiations [5][7].
兴证全球谢治宇:今年四月份以来,我们更有信心了
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2025-04-28 10:25
暌违数年,兴证全球基金副总经理谢治宇于日前在兴证全球基金中国投资人峰会上,做了个人主题演讲 ——"可为之年"。 在过去低调的两年中,谢治宇有过传言傍身,有过业绩波动、也有过深刻反思,但最终他在依然站立在 兴全这支价值投资团队的最中央。他目前是公司副总经理兼研究部总监、国际业务部总监、也是该公司 多只旗舰基金的基金经理。截至1季度末,在管规模依然超过397亿元。 谢治宇的所思所想,某种程度上代表了兴证全球投研团队的所思所想、布局和应对,因而格外引人关注 (下文,以第一人称)。 每天"撕"一份策略报告 这次演讲,我从很早就开始构思分享内容,在4月初,我把心里的稿撕掉了一份,4月的后半月的每一天 晚上都要撕一份,撕到最后,不撕了、就这么办。 讲这个段子是因为,现在我们处在一个未来回看非常动荡的时候,内外形势也是,经济接下来要面对的 挑战也是。 变化也有,我们更成熟了。 第一、我们现在不会像以前那样担心,不会每天夜里2:00起来看看发声了什么事。现在我们一般早上 6:00起来看或者9:00看就够了。 第二,我们应对的措施和手段会比以前更多,包括自己的心态,包括在心理层面上建设,都可以帮助我 们更好的处理接下来要面对的 ...