以下文章来源于中国金融 ，作者陈四清 中国金融 . 中国人民银行主管的中央级财经媒体，以"权威、专业、理性、前沿"为理念，以"高端权威、高层读者、高效传播"为特色，以宣传金融政策、分析金融运 行、报道金融实践为主旨，是国内外了解中国金融的重要载体 文/第十四届全国政协外事委员会副主任、中国工商银行原董事长 陈四清 2 全球跨境支付体系变革为人民币跨境支付体系建设带来新机遇 近年来，随着全球治理变革、经贸格局调整和科技革命突破，全球跨境支付体系加快变革，日益呈现多元化、区域化、数字化特 征。 全球治理变革推动跨境支付体系走向"多元化"。 当前，新兴市场经济体逐步崛起，占全球GDP比重突破60%，推动传统治理格局 从"主导式"向"共治式"发展，跨境支付体系也呈现相同的变化趋势。一方面，越来越多的国家加速布局平行系统，推进本国支付体 系的自主可控，例如欧洲中央银行即时支付结算系统（TIPS）、俄罗斯金融信息传输系统（SPFS），以及我国的人民币跨境支付 系统（CIPS）等。"十四五"时期，CIPS处理跨境人民币业务规模年均增长40.3%，人民币成为全球第三大支付货币。另一方面， 国际社会在二十国集团（G20）、金融 ...

Group 1 - Shanghai's GDP growth target for this year is set at around 5%, with a focus on enhancing the capabilities of the "Five Centers" [3] - The Shanghai government aims to strengthen the international financial center by advancing financial system reforms and improving cross-border financial services [3][4] - There is a push for the development of offshore financial functions to enhance Shanghai's global competitiveness in the financial sector [5][6] Group 2 - The Shanghai government is initiating a pilot program for purchasing second-hand homes to expand the supply of affordable rental housing, with support from China Construction Bank [7] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange has announced adjustments to margin levels and price limits for silver and other futures contracts due to significant price volatility [9] - The Shanghai Stock Exchange is working on creating a multi-layered ETF market, with projections indicating that the domestic ETF market will exceed 6 trillion yuan by 2025, surpassing Japan [10] Group 3 - The People's Bank of China reported that cross-border RMB transactions reached 32.4 trillion yuan in 2025, marking a 9% year-on-year increase [10] - The first commercial real estate REITs projects have been accepted for review, indicating an expansion of the REITs market into commercial properties [10] - A biodiversity loan for forest economy has been successfully issued, supporting the construction of a world-class ecological island in Chongming [12]

登录新浪财经APP 搜索【信披】查看更多考评等级 2月3日，上海市第十六届人民代表大会第四次会议开幕，市长龚正作政府工作报告。在部署"着力加强 核心功能建设，持续提升'五个中心'能级"时，报告明确指出，要深化国际金融中心建设，配合中央金 融管理部门加强科创板制度建设，更大力度培育壮大长期资本、耐心资本，探索构建离岸金融体系，加 快建设自主可控的人民币跨境支付体系。这为上海国际金融中心在"十五五"时期的功能升级指明了方 向。 "十四五"期间，上海国际金融中心建设活力迸发，金融市场规模与能级持续提升。数据显示，2025年前 三季度，在沪主要金融要素市场合计成交2967.8万亿元，同比增长12.7%。 与此同时，上海金融业对外开放在国内引领潮头，是外资金融机构进入中国市场的首选地。截至2024年 底，上海各类持牌金融机构达到1782家，其中外资金融机构占三分之一，全球主要跨国金融机构基本在 上海设有分支机构。 "十五五"是上海国际金融中心功能全面提升的关键五年。上海的目标是明确的，经过5—10年的建设， 基本建成与我国综合国力和全球影响力相匹配的国际金融中心。 这意味着上海将不仅是中国的金融中心，更将成为全球金融治 ...

上海2026年GDP增长目标定了。 报告提出，今年要建设国家服务贸易创新发展示范区，培育高端设计、研发等知识密集型服务贸易，支持跨境 电商、保税维修、再制造、二手车出口等新业态新模式发展。 深入实施"人工智能+"行动 2月3日，据上海发布，上海市第十六届人大四次会议2月3日上午在世博中心开幕。上海市市长龚正作《政府工 作报告》。龚正说，综合各方面因素，建议今年全市经济社会发展的主要预期目标是：全市生产总值增长5% 左右。 报告明确，在集成电路、生物医药、人工智能等领域加快实施一批重大产业项目，积极支持智能网联新能源汽 车、海洋经济、低空经济、航空航天、卫星互联网等产业发展，培育特色数字产业集群，大力推动服务业扩能 提质、集聚发展。 上海最新发布 今日（2月3日）上午，上海市市长龚正作《政府工作报告》。龚正说，综合各方面因素，建议今年全市经济社 会发展的主要预期目标是：全市生产总值增长5%左右，地方一般公共预算收入增长2%，全社会研发经费支出 相当于全市生产总值的比例达到4.6%左右，城镇调查失业率5%以内，居民人均可支配收入增长与经济增长保 持基本同步，居民消费价格涨幅2%左右。 报告指出，今年全年要完成重大 ...

Macroeconomic Overview - In mid-January 2026, prices of 29 out of 50 monitored production materials increased, while 13 decreased and 8 remained stable [1][4] - As of January 23, 2026, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield decreased by 6 basis points to 4.24%, with the effective federal funds rate remaining stable at 3.64% [1][4] - In December 2025, the seasonally adjusted non-farm employment in the U.S. increased by 50,000, with previous months' figures revised downwards, totaling a downward revision of 76,000 jobs [1][4] - The unemployment rate in December fell to 4.4%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from November [1][4] - The Eurozone benchmark interest rate remains at 2.15%, while Japan's benchmark rate is at 0.75% [1][4] Bond Market Insights - The yields on both 10-year and 2-year government bonds declined last week, with the 10-year yield down by 0.95 basis points to 1.8298% and the 2-year yield down by 1.13 basis points to 1.3959% as of January 23 [2][5] - As of the end of December, the M2 money supply was 340.29 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 8.5% [2][5] - The People's Bank of China conducted a 125 billion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase operation on January 23, with a net liquidity injection of 38.3 billion yuan for the day [2][5] - The total social financing stock was 442.12 trillion yuan in December 2025, with a financing growth rate of 8.3%, narrowing the gap with M2 growth by 0.7 percentage points from November [2][5] - Last week, 308 credit bonds were successfully issued, with 135 classified as local government financing bonds, accounting for 43.8% of the total [2][5] Policy and Market Developments - The People's Bank of China aims to accelerate the construction of a cross-border payment system for the yuan and implement strict regulatory measures for payment institutions [3][6] - The central government has allocated risk-sharing funds to support bond issuance for private enterprises and private equity investment institutions [3][6] - The Governor of the People's Bank of China announced plans to establish a risk-sharing tool for technology innovation and private enterprise bonds, along with providing re-lending support [3][6] - The Ministry of Finance will conduct market support operations for government bonds with maturities of 3 and 5 years starting January 20 [3][6] - Recent announcements from local government financing entities involve equity transfers, asset disposals, and changes in control [3][6] Information from Far East Credit - Far East Credit published a guide on the application of large language models in corporate credit evaluation [3][6] - Far East Credit's rating facilitated the successful issuance of the first medium-term note for Zhejiang Jiaxing Lake District Science and Technology Control Group in 2026 [3][6]

Group 1: Domestic News - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) emphasizes accelerating the construction of a cross-border payment system for the renminbi, aiming for a diversified and multi-layered development by 2026 [2] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) reports that the industrial and information sectors contributed over 40% to economic growth, with a projected 5.9% increase in industrial value added by 2025 [3] - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development (MOHURD) plans to stabilize the real estate market by focusing on urban renewal, community construction, and improving housing sales systems [5] Group 2: International News - Former President Trump announces a framework agreement with NATO regarding Greenland, temporarily halting planned tariffs on European countries [6] - The U.S. Treasury yields show a general decline, with the 10-year Treasury yield down by 4 basis points to 4.26% [25] Group 3: Bond Market Dynamics - The bond market shows a strong performance with the 10-year government bond yield decreasing by 0.05 basis points to 1.8335% [10] - The credit bond market experiences significant price deviations, with some industrial bonds seeing price changes exceeding 10% [11] - Vanke announces a bondholder meeting where a proposal to extend the maturity of a portion of its bonds was approved [12] Group 4: Commodity Market - International crude oil prices rise, with WTI crude up 0.43% to $60.62 per barrel, and natural gas prices surge nearly 30% to $5.040 per million British thermal units [7] Group 5: Equity and Convertible Bond Market - The equity market sees a collective rise, with major indices increasing, and the convertible bond market also reflects this trend with major indices up by approximately 0.90% [21] - The convertible bond market records a trading volume of 912.89 billion yuan, with 308 out of 385 bonds rising in value [21]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - For the stock index, in the long - term, policies support the capital market, and the strategy is to buy on dips [4]. - For treasury bonds, in the context of weak domestic demand recovery, there is still room for reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts, and the bond market is expected to fluctuate [6]. - For precious metals, in the medium - term, there is a buying opportunity after the price correction [8]. - For non - ferrous metals, in the double - wide cycle, the bullish sentiment of commodities continues, with the main focus on precious metals and non - ferrous metals, and other sectors are affected by the spill - over of market sentiment [41]. - For black building materials, the prices of black series continue to oscillate in the bottom range, and attention should be paid to the inventory reduction progress of hot - rolled coils and relevant policies [30]. - For energy and chemicals, different varieties have different trends, such as rubber is expected to decline after consolidation, and some varieties have opportunities for long - term investment [51]. - For agricultural products, different products have different outlooks, such as short - term support for the near - month contracts of live pigs and eggs, but medium - term pressure on some products [78][80]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Stock Index - **Market Information**: Policies include solving abnormal low - price problems in government procurement, supporting the real estate market, and promoting cross - border payment systems [2]. - **Basis Ratio**: The basis ratios of IF, IC, IM, and IH for different periods are provided [3]. - **Strategy**: Adopt a long - on - dips strategy in the long - term, and pay attention to the market rhythm in the short - term [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: The prices of TL, T, TF, and TS contracts changed on Wednesday. Policies focus on urban renewal and real estate system construction. The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations with a net investment of 1227 billion yuan [5]. - **Strategy**: In the context of weak domestic demand recovery, there is room for reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts, and the bond market is expected to fluctuate, mainly affected by the stock - bond seesaw [6]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: The prices of gold and silver in domestic and foreign markets changed. The conflict over Greenland was alleviated, and the inventory of COMEX silver decreased [7]. - **Strategy**: In the medium - term, there is a buying opportunity after the price correction, with reference price ranges for Shanghai gold and silver contracts [8]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Information**: The price of copper followed the trend of gold and fell. LME copper inventory increased, and the domestic spot was at a discount [10]. - **Strategy**: The copper price is expected to oscillate and adjust in the short - term, with reference price ranges for Shanghai copper and LME copper [11]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: The price of aluminum fell slightly. The inventory of LME aluminum increased, and the domestic downstream procurement sentiment improved [12]. - **Strategy**: The decline of aluminum price is limited, and it is still supported in the short - term, with reference price ranges for Shanghai aluminum and LME aluminum [13]. Zinc - **Market Information**: The price of zinc fell. The inventory of zinc ingots increased, and the LME announced restrictions on some zinc brands [14]. - **Strategy**: Zinc has room for price increase compared with copper and aluminum, and follow - up attention should be paid to the leading varieties in the sector and the Shanghai - London ratio [15]. Lead - **Market Information**: The price of lead fell. The inventory of lead ingots increased, and the LME announced restrictions on some lead brands [16]. - **Strategy**: The lead price may oscillate and adjust, and follow - up attention should be paid to the leading varieties in the sector and the Shanghai - London ratio [17]. Nickel - **Market Information**: The price of nickel fluctuated slightly. The prices of nickel ore and nickel iron changed [18]. - **Strategy**: The Shanghai nickel is expected to oscillate widely in the short - term, and it is recommended to wait and see, with reference price ranges for Shanghai nickel and LME nickel [19]. Tin - **Market Information**: The price of tin rebounded. The smelting start - up rates in Yunnan and Jiangxi were stable, and the inventory increased [20][21]. - **Strategy**: The supply - demand of tin has improved marginally, and the price is expected to oscillate. It is recommended to wait and see, with reference price ranges for domestic and overseas tin contracts [22]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market Information**: The price of carbonate lithium rebounded. The spot index and futures contract price increased [23]. - **Strategy**: The supply contraction expectation has not been falsified, but there is a callback risk. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position, with a reference price range for the futures contract [23]. Alumina - **Market Information**: The price of alumina increased slightly. The inventory increased, and the overseas price decreased [24]. - **Strategy**: The ore price is expected to decline, and the over - capacity of alumina smelting is difficult to change in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see, with a reference price range for the domestic contract [25]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The price of stainless steel increased. The inventory decreased, and the raw material prices changed [26]. - **Strategy**: In the short - term, the market is expected to be strong, and the price may oscillate at a high level, with a reference price range for the main contract [26]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The price of casting aluminum alloy oscillated. The inventory decreased, and the trading volume increased [27]. - **Strategy**: The price is expected to oscillate and consolidate, with strong cost support and general demand [28]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils changed. The inventory and production of hot - rolled coils and rebar changed [30]. - **Strategy**: The prices of steel products continue to oscillate in the bottom range. Attention should be paid to the inventory reduction progress of hot - rolled coils and relevant policies [30]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The price of iron ore fell. The inventory increased, and the supply and demand changed [31]. - **Strategy**: The supply pressure eases marginally, and the price is supported in the short - term. Attention should be paid to the steel mill's restocking and iron - water production rhythm [32]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Information**: The prices of coking coal and coke changed. The technical forms and supply - demand structures are analyzed [33][34]. - **Strategy**: The prices of coking coal and coke are expected to oscillate strongly, and attention should be paid to market sentiment fluctuations [36]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass** - **Market Information**: The price of glass fell. The inventory decreased, and the trading volume changed [37]. - **Strategy**: The glass market is in a loose balance, and the price is expected to oscillate widely, with a reference price range for the main contract [38]. - **Soda Ash** - **Market Information**: The price of soda ash fell. The inventory increased slightly, and the trading volume changed [39]. - **Strategy**: The soda ash market is in a weak - oscillating pattern, and the price is expected to continue to be weak, with a reference price range for the main contract [39]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon changed. The technical forms and supply - demand structures are analyzed [40]. - **Strategy**: The supply - demand of manganese silicon is not ideal, and that of ferrosilicon is basically balanced. Attention should be paid to market sentiment and relevant factors, and there are opportunities for long - term investment [43]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon** - **Market Information**: The price of industrial silicon increased slightly. The supply and demand changed [44]. - **Strategy**: The price of industrial silicon is expected to oscillate due to news disturbances, and attention should be paid to the implementation of production cuts by large factories [45]. - **Polysilicon** - **Market Information**: The price of polysilicon fell. The supply pressure is expected to ease [46]. - **Strategy**: The market is in a wait - and - see state, and the price is expected to fluctuate in the short - term. Attention should be paid to spot transactions and exchange risk - control measures [47]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **Market Information**: The price of rubber oscillated and rebounded. The supply and demand, inventory, and spot prices changed [49][50]. - **Strategy**: Rubber is expected to decline after consolidation, and a short - on - rebound strategy is recommended [51]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The price of crude oil increased. The inventory of refined oil products in ports changed [52]. - **Strategy**: Take profit on heavy - oil spreads and go long on crude oil at the shale - oil break - even cost range [53]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The regional spot and futures prices of methanol changed [54]. - **Strategy**: The valuation is low, and there is room for long - term investment due to geopolitical expectations [55]. Urea - **Market Information**: The regional spot and futures prices of urea changed [56]. - **Strategy**: The import window is open, and it is recommended to take profit on rallies [57]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene changed. The supply, demand, and inventory are analyzed [60]. - **Strategy**: There is room for upward valuation repair of styrene non - integrated profit, and it is recommended to go long on non - integrated profit before the first quarter [61]. PVC - **Market Information**: The price of PVC fell. The supply, demand, and inventory changed [62]. - **Strategy**: The domestic supply is strong and demand is weak. In the short - term, there is support from electricity prices and export rush, and in the medium - term, a short - on - rallies strategy is recommended [63]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The price of ethylene glycol increased. The supply, demand, and inventory changed [64][65]. - **Strategy**: The supply - demand pattern needs to be improved by increasing production cuts. There is a risk of rebound in the short - term, and valuation compression is expected in the medium - term [66]. PTA - **Market Information**: The price of PTA increased. The supply, demand, and inventory changed [67]. - **Strategy**: PTA is expected to enter the Spring Festival inventory - accumulation period. There is room for valuation increase after the Spring Festival, and attention should be paid to long - term investment opportunities [68]. p - Xylene - **Market Information**: The price of p - xylene fell. The supply, demand, and inventory changed [69]. - **Strategy**: PX is expected to maintain an inventory - accumulation pattern before the maintenance season. There are long - term investment opportunities following crude oil after the Spring Festival [71]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: The price of PE increased. The supply, demand, and inventory changed [72]. - **Strategy**: The price of crude oil may have bottomed out. The supply pressure is reduced, and the price is supported by inventory reduction [73]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: The price of PP increased. The supply, demand, and inventory changed [74]. - **Strategy**: The supply - demand is weak, and the inventory pressure is high. There is no prominent short - term contradiction. There are opportunities for long - term investment in the PP5 - 9 spread [75]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - **Market Information**: The price of live pigs mainly declined. The consumption and supply situation is analyzed [77]. - **Strategy**: The short - term near - month contracts are supported, but the medium - term supply pressure is high [78]. Eggs - **Market Information**: The price of eggs was mostly stable. The supply, demand, and inventory are analyzed [79]. - **Strategy**: The near - month contracts are strong in the short - term, but the overall supply is sufficient, and the long - term outlook for the far - end contracts is uncertain [80]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: The prices of soybean and rapeseed meal futures changed. The supply and demand situation is affected by policies and imports [81]. - **Strategy**: The prices of protein meals have fallen to the previous low, with many negative news. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [82]. Oils - **Market Information**: The prices of oils futures changed. The supply and demand situation is affected by production, consumption, and policies [83][84]. - **Strategy**: The current fundamentals are weak, but the long - term outlook is optimistic. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [85]. Sugar - **Market Information**: The price of sugar fell. The supply and demand situation is affected by imports and production in different countries [86][88]. - **Strategy**: After the negative impact of production increase is realized, there may be a rebound in international sugar prices. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [89]. Cotton - **Market Information**: The price of cotton oscillated. The supply and demand situation is affected by imports, production, and consumption [90][91]. - **Strategy**: In the long - term, there is room for the cotton price to rise. It is recommended to wait for a correction and then go long [92].

Industry Insights - The People's Bank of China is accelerating the construction of a cross-border payment system for the renminbi, promoting interconnectivity in cross-border payments and aiming for a diversified and multi-layered development of the payment system [2] - The Ministry of Finance and four other departments announced the establishment of new duty-free shops at 41 ports to boost consumption, facilitating duty-free shopping for incoming travelers [3] - The demand for AI is driving significant revenue growth for several companies in the industry, with storage chip leader Demingli expected to achieve revenue of 10.3 billion to 11.3 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 115.82% to 136.77% [4] - The consumer electronics market is showing signs of recovery, with companies like Jin'an Guoji and Baiao Intelligent reporting impressive performance [4] Company Performance - Demingli, a leader in storage chips, anticipates a revenue increase of 115.82% to 136.77% in 2025, projecting revenues between 10.3 billion and 11.3 billion yuan [4] - Tianfu Communication, a core supplier of optical modules, expects a net profit growth of 40% to 60% in 2025 [4] - Jin'an Guoji forecasts a net profit of 280 million to 360 million yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 655.53% to 871.40% [14] - Daikin Heavy Industries projects a net profit of 1.05 billion to 1.2 billion yuan in 2025, indicating a growth of 121.58% to 153.23% [14]

Group 1 - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development supports reasonable financing needs of real estate companies and emphasizes the importance of the "white list" system for real estate financing [1] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology aims to achieve automated monitoring of computing power resources data across 31 provinces and key computing power enterprises by the end of 2026 [1] - The People's Bank of China is accelerating the construction of a cross-border payment system for the Renminbi, promoting interconnectivity in cross-border payments [1] Group 2 - The Ministry of Finance and four other departments are establishing new duty-free shops at 41 ports, including Wuhan Tianhe International Airport [1] - The Guangdong government is supporting the orderly opening of automated driving tests in multiple scenarios and expanding high-level automated driving application areas [1]

○寒潮致国家电网负荷承压产业链景气度持续提升 今日提示 ·国新办1月22日就加快农业农村现代化，扎实推进乡村全面振兴有关情况举行新闻发布会。 ·上海外滩数据智能科技创新论坛1月22日举行。 ·1月22日，1793亿元7天期逆回购到期。 上证精选 ·日前，住房城乡建设部党组书记、部长倪虹表示，我国新型城镇化仍在持续推进，城市存量优化调整 也有广阔空间，人民群众对高品质住房充满期待，房地产高质量发展仍有较大潜力。房地产是不动产， 房地产市场是以城市为单元的市场，城市政府应当充分用好调控自主权。下一步，将继续坚持因城施 策、精准施策、一城一策，控增量、去库存、优供给，发挥好房地产融资"白名单"制度作用，支持房企 合理融资需求，支持居民刚性和改善性住房需求，推动房地产市场平稳运行。 ·财政部、税务总局、中国证监会1月21日对外发布公告称，延续实施创新企业境内发行存托凭证（以下 称创新企业CDR）试点阶段有关税收政策。公告称，自2026年1月1日至2027年12月31日，对个人投资 者转让创新企业CDR取得的差价所得，暂免征收个人所得税。自2026年1月1日至2027年12月31日，对 个人投资者持有创新企业CDR取得 ...