Macroeconomic Overview - In mid-January 2026, prices of 29 out of 50 monitored production materials increased, while 13 decreased and 8 remained stable [1][4] - As of January 23, 2026, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield decreased by 6 basis points to 4.24%, with the effective federal funds rate remaining stable at 3.64% [1][4] - In December 2025, the seasonally adjusted non-farm employment in the U.S. increased by 50,000, with previous months' figures revised downwards, totaling a downward revision of 76,000 jobs [1][4] - The unemployment rate in December fell to 4.4%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from November [1][4] - The Eurozone benchmark interest rate remains at 2.15%, while Japan's benchmark rate is at 0.75% [1][4] Bond Market Insights - The yields on both 10-year and 2-year government bonds declined last week, with the 10-year yield down by 0.95 basis points to 1.8298% and the 2-year yield down by 1.13 basis points to 1.3959% as of January 23 [2][5] - As of the end of December, the M2 money supply was 340.29 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 8.5% [2][5] - The People's Bank of China conducted a 125 billion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase operation on January 23, with a net liquidity injection of 38.3 billion yuan for the day [2][5] - The total social financing stock was 442.12 trillion yuan in December 2025, with a financing growth rate of 8.3%, narrowing the gap with M2 growth by 0.7 percentage points from November [2][5] - Last week, 308 credit bonds were successfully issued, with 135 classified as local government financing bonds, accounting for 43.8% of the total [2][5] Policy and Market Developments - The People's Bank of China aims to accelerate the construction of a cross-border payment system for the yuan and implement strict regulatory measures for payment institutions [3][6] - The central government has allocated risk-sharing funds to support bond issuance for private enterprises and private equity investment institutions [3][6] - The Governor of the People's Bank of China announced plans to establish a risk-sharing tool for technology innovation and private enterprise bonds, along with providing re-lending support [3][6] - The Ministry of Finance will conduct market support operations for government bonds with maturities of 3 and 5 years starting January 20 [3][6] - Recent announcements from local government financing entities involve equity transfers, asset disposals, and changes in control [3][6] Information from Far East Credit - Far East Credit published a guide on the application of large language models in corporate credit evaluation [3][6] - Far East Credit's rating facilitated the successful issuance of the first medium-term note for Zhejiang Jiaxing Lake District Science and Technology Control Group in 2026 [3][6]

Group 1: Domestic News - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) emphasizes accelerating the construction of a cross-border payment system for the renminbi, aiming for a diversified and multi-layered development by 2026 [2] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) reports that the industrial and information sectors contributed over 40% to economic growth, with a projected 5.9% increase in industrial value added by 2025 [3] - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development (MOHURD) plans to stabilize the real estate market by focusing on urban renewal, community construction, and improving housing sales systems [5] Group 2: International News - Former President Trump announces a framework agreement with NATO regarding Greenland, temporarily halting planned tariffs on European countries [6] - The U.S. Treasury yields show a general decline, with the 10-year Treasury yield down by 4 basis points to 4.26% [25] Group 3: Bond Market Dynamics - The bond market shows a strong performance with the 10-year government bond yield decreasing by 0.05 basis points to 1.8335% [10] - The credit bond market experiences significant price deviations, with some industrial bonds seeing price changes exceeding 10% [11] - Vanke announces a bondholder meeting where a proposal to extend the maturity of a portion of its bonds was approved [12] Group 4: Commodity Market - International crude oil prices rise, with WTI crude up 0.43% to $60.62 per barrel, and natural gas prices surge nearly 30% to $5.040 per million British thermal units [7] Group 5: Equity and Convertible Bond Market - The equity market sees a collective rise, with major indices increasing, and the convertible bond market also reflects this trend with major indices up by approximately 0.90% [21] - The convertible bond market records a trading volume of 912.89 billion yuan, with 308 out of 385 bonds rising in value [21]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - For the stock index, in the long - term, policies support the capital market, and the strategy is to buy on dips [4]. - For treasury bonds, in the context of weak domestic demand recovery, there is still room for reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts, and the bond market is expected to fluctuate [6]. - For precious metals, in the medium - term, there is a buying opportunity after the price correction [8]. - For non - ferrous metals, in the double - wide cycle, the bullish sentiment of commodities continues, with the main focus on precious metals and non - ferrous metals, and other sectors are affected by the spill - over of market sentiment [41]. - For black building materials, the prices of black series continue to oscillate in the bottom range, and attention should be paid to the inventory reduction progress of hot - rolled coils and relevant policies [30]. - For energy and chemicals, different varieties have different trends, such as rubber is expected to decline after consolidation, and some varieties have opportunities for long - term investment [51]. - For agricultural products, different products have different outlooks, such as short - term support for the near - month contracts of live pigs and eggs, but medium - term pressure on some products [78][80]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Stock Index - **Market Information**: Policies include solving abnormal low - price problems in government procurement, supporting the real estate market, and promoting cross - border payment systems [2]. - **Basis Ratio**: The basis ratios of IF, IC, IM, and IH for different periods are provided [3]. - **Strategy**: Adopt a long - on - dips strategy in the long - term, and pay attention to the market rhythm in the short - term [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: The prices of TL, T, TF, and TS contracts changed on Wednesday. Policies focus on urban renewal and real estate system construction. The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations with a net investment of 1227 billion yuan [5]. - **Strategy**: In the context of weak domestic demand recovery, there is room for reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts, and the bond market is expected to fluctuate, mainly affected by the stock - bond seesaw [6]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: The prices of gold and silver in domestic and foreign markets changed. The conflict over Greenland was alleviated, and the inventory of COMEX silver decreased [7]. - **Strategy**: In the medium - term, there is a buying opportunity after the price correction, with reference price ranges for Shanghai gold and silver contracts [8]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Information**: The price of copper followed the trend of gold and fell. LME copper inventory increased, and the domestic spot was at a discount [10]. - **Strategy**: The copper price is expected to oscillate and adjust in the short - term, with reference price ranges for Shanghai copper and LME copper [11]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: The price of aluminum fell slightly. The inventory of LME aluminum increased, and the domestic downstream procurement sentiment improved [12]. - **Strategy**: The decline of aluminum price is limited, and it is still supported in the short - term, with reference price ranges for Shanghai aluminum and LME aluminum [13]. Zinc - **Market Information**: The price of zinc fell. The inventory of zinc ingots increased, and the LME announced restrictions on some zinc brands [14]. - **Strategy**: Zinc has room for price increase compared with copper and aluminum, and follow - up attention should be paid to the leading varieties in the sector and the Shanghai - London ratio [15]. Lead - **Market Information**: The price of lead fell. The inventory of lead ingots increased, and the LME announced restrictions on some lead brands [16]. - **Strategy**: The lead price may oscillate and adjust, and follow - up attention should be paid to the leading varieties in the sector and the Shanghai - London ratio [17]. Nickel - **Market Information**: The price of nickel fluctuated slightly. The prices of nickel ore and nickel iron changed [18]. - **Strategy**: The Shanghai nickel is expected to oscillate widely in the short - term, and it is recommended to wait and see, with reference price ranges for Shanghai nickel and LME nickel [19]. Tin - **Market Information**: The price of tin rebounded. The smelting start - up rates in Yunnan and Jiangxi were stable, and the inventory increased [20][21]. - **Strategy**: The supply - demand of tin has improved marginally, and the price is expected to oscillate. It is recommended to wait and see, with reference price ranges for domestic and overseas tin contracts [22]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market Information**: The price of carbonate lithium rebounded. The spot index and futures contract price increased [23]. - **Strategy**: The supply contraction expectation has not been falsified, but there is a callback risk. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position, with a reference price range for the futures contract [23]. Alumina - **Market Information**: The price of alumina increased slightly. The inventory increased, and the overseas price decreased [24]. - **Strategy**: The ore price is expected to decline, and the over - capacity of alumina smelting is difficult to change in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see, with a reference price range for the domestic contract [25]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The price of stainless steel increased. The inventory decreased, and the raw material prices changed [26]. - **Strategy**: In the short - term, the market is expected to be strong, and the price may oscillate at a high level, with a reference price range for the main contract [26]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The price of casting aluminum alloy oscillated. The inventory decreased, and the trading volume increased [27]. - **Strategy**: The price is expected to oscillate and consolidate, with strong cost support and general demand [28]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils changed. The inventory and production of hot - rolled coils and rebar changed [30]. - **Strategy**: The prices of steel products continue to oscillate in the bottom range. Attention should be paid to the inventory reduction progress of hot - rolled coils and relevant policies [30]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The price of iron ore fell. The inventory increased, and the supply and demand changed [31]. - **Strategy**: The supply pressure eases marginally, and the price is supported in the short - term. Attention should be paid to the steel mill's restocking and iron - water production rhythm [32]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Information**: The prices of coking coal and coke changed. The technical forms and supply - demand structures are analyzed [33][34]. - **Strategy**: The prices of coking coal and coke are expected to oscillate strongly, and attention should be paid to market sentiment fluctuations [36]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass** - **Market Information**: The price of glass fell. The inventory decreased, and the trading volume changed [37]. - **Strategy**: The glass market is in a loose balance, and the price is expected to oscillate widely, with a reference price range for the main contract [38]. - **Soda Ash** - **Market Information**: The price of soda ash fell. The inventory increased slightly, and the trading volume changed [39]. - **Strategy**: The soda ash market is in a weak - oscillating pattern, and the price is expected to continue to be weak, with a reference price range for the main contract [39]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon changed. The technical forms and supply - demand structures are analyzed [40]. - **Strategy**: The supply - demand of manganese silicon is not ideal, and that of ferrosilicon is basically balanced. Attention should be paid to market sentiment and relevant factors, and there are opportunities for long - term investment [43]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon** - **Market Information**: The price of industrial silicon increased slightly. The supply and demand changed [44]. - **Strategy**: The price of industrial silicon is expected to oscillate due to news disturbances, and attention should be paid to the implementation of production cuts by large factories [45]. - **Polysilicon** - **Market Information**: The price of polysilicon fell. The supply pressure is expected to ease [46]. - **Strategy**: The market is in a wait - and - see state, and the price is expected to fluctuate in the short - term. Attention should be paid to spot transactions and exchange risk - control measures [47]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **Market Information**: The price of rubber oscillated and rebounded. The supply and demand, inventory, and spot prices changed [49][50]. - **Strategy**: Rubber is expected to decline after consolidation, and a short - on - rebound strategy is recommended [51]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The price of crude oil increased. The inventory of refined oil products in ports changed [52]. - **Strategy**: Take profit on heavy - oil spreads and go long on crude oil at the shale - oil break - even cost range [53]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The regional spot and futures prices of methanol changed [54]. - **Strategy**: The valuation is low, and there is room for long - term investment due to geopolitical expectations [55]. Urea - **Market Information**: The regional spot and futures prices of urea changed [56]. - **Strategy**: The import window is open, and it is recommended to take profit on rallies [57]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene changed. The supply, demand, and inventory are analyzed [60]. - **Strategy**: There is room for upward valuation repair of styrene non - integrated profit, and it is recommended to go long on non - integrated profit before the first quarter [61]. PVC - **Market Information**: The price of PVC fell. The supply, demand, and inventory changed [62]. - **Strategy**: The domestic supply is strong and demand is weak. In the short - term, there is support from electricity prices and export rush, and in the medium - term, a short - on - rallies strategy is recommended [63]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The price of ethylene glycol increased. The supply, demand, and inventory changed [64][65]. - **Strategy**: The supply - demand pattern needs to be improved by increasing production cuts. There is a risk of rebound in the short - term, and valuation compression is expected in the medium - term [66]. PTA - **Market Information**: The price of PTA increased. The supply, demand, and inventory changed [67]. - **Strategy**: PTA is expected to enter the Spring Festival inventory - accumulation period. There is room for valuation increase after the Spring Festival, and attention should be paid to long - term investment opportunities [68]. p - Xylene - **Market Information**: The price of p - xylene fell. The supply, demand, and inventory changed [69]. - **Strategy**: PX is expected to maintain an inventory - accumulation pattern before the maintenance season. There are long - term investment opportunities following crude oil after the Spring Festival [71]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: The price of PE increased. The supply, demand, and inventory changed [72]. - **Strategy**: The price of crude oil may have bottomed out. The supply pressure is reduced, and the price is supported by inventory reduction [73]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: The price of PP increased. The supply, demand, and inventory changed [74]. - **Strategy**: The supply - demand is weak, and the inventory pressure is high. There is no prominent short - term contradiction. There are opportunities for long - term investment in the PP5 - 9 spread [75]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - **Market Information**: The price of live pigs mainly declined. The consumption and supply situation is analyzed [77]. - **Strategy**: The short - term near - month contracts are supported, but the medium - term supply pressure is high [78]. Eggs - **Market Information**: The price of eggs was mostly stable. The supply, demand, and inventory are analyzed [79]. - **Strategy**: The near - month contracts are strong in the short - term, but the overall supply is sufficient, and the long - term outlook for the far - end contracts is uncertain [80]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: The prices of soybean and rapeseed meal futures changed. The supply and demand situation is affected by policies and imports [81]. - **Strategy**: The prices of protein meals have fallen to the previous low, with many negative news. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [82]. Oils - **Market Information**: The prices of oils futures changed. The supply and demand situation is affected by production, consumption, and policies [83][84]. - **Strategy**: The current fundamentals are weak, but the long - term outlook is optimistic. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [85]. Sugar - **Market Information**: The price of sugar fell. The supply and demand situation is affected by imports and production in different countries [86][88]. - **Strategy**: After the negative impact of production increase is realized, there may be a rebound in international sugar prices. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [89]. Cotton - **Market Information**: The price of cotton oscillated. The supply and demand situation is affected by imports, production, and consumption [90][91]. - **Strategy**: In the long - term, there is room for the cotton price to rise. It is recommended to wait for a correction and then go long [92].

Industry Insights - The People's Bank of China is accelerating the construction of a cross-border payment system for the renminbi, promoting interconnectivity in cross-border payments and aiming for a diversified and multi-layered development of the payment system [2] - The Ministry of Finance and four other departments announced the establishment of new duty-free shops at 41 ports to boost consumption, facilitating duty-free shopping for incoming travelers [3] - The demand for AI is driving significant revenue growth for several companies in the industry, with storage chip leader Demingli expected to achieve revenue of 10.3 billion to 11.3 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 115.82% to 136.77% [4] - The consumer electronics market is showing signs of recovery, with companies like Jin'an Guoji and Baiao Intelligent reporting impressive performance [4] Company Performance - Demingli, a leader in storage chips, anticipates a revenue increase of 115.82% to 136.77% in 2025, projecting revenues between 10.3 billion and 11.3 billion yuan [4] - Tianfu Communication, a core supplier of optical modules, expects a net profit growth of 40% to 60% in 2025 [4] - Jin'an Guoji forecasts a net profit of 280 million to 360 million yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 655.53% to 871.40% [14] - Daikin Heavy Industries projects a net profit of 1.05 billion to 1.2 billion yuan in 2025, indicating a growth of 121.58% to 153.23% [14]

Group 1 - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development supports reasonable financing needs of real estate companies and emphasizes the importance of the "white list" system for real estate financing [1] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology aims to achieve automated monitoring of computing power resources data across 31 provinces and key computing power enterprises by the end of 2026 [1] - The People's Bank of China is accelerating the construction of a cross-border payment system for the Renminbi, promoting interconnectivity in cross-border payments [1] Group 2 - The Ministry of Finance and four other departments are establishing new duty-free shops at 41 ports, including Wuhan Tianhe International Airport [1] - The Guangdong government is supporting the orderly opening of automated driving tests in multiple scenarios and expanding high-level automated driving application areas [1]

○寒潮致国家电网负荷承压产业链景气度持续提升 今日提示 ·国新办1月22日就加快农业农村现代化，扎实推进乡村全面振兴有关情况举行新闻发布会。 ·上海外滩数据智能科技创新论坛1月22日举行。 ·1月22日，1793亿元7天期逆回购到期。 上证精选 ·日前，住房城乡建设部党组书记、部长倪虹表示，我国新型城镇化仍在持续推进，城市存量优化调整 也有广阔空间，人民群众对高品质住房充满期待，房地产高质量发展仍有较大潜力。房地产是不动产， 房地产市场是以城市为单元的市场，城市政府应当充分用好调控自主权。下一步，将继续坚持因城施 策、精准施策、一城一策，控增量、去库存、优供给，发挥好房地产融资"白名单"制度作用，支持房企 合理融资需求，支持居民刚性和改善性住房需求，推动房地产市场平稳运行。 ·财政部、税务总局、中国证监会1月21日对外发布公告称，延续实施创新企业境内发行存托凭证（以下 称创新企业CDR）试点阶段有关税收政策。公告称，自2026年1月1日至2027年12月31日，对个人投资 者转让创新企业CDR取得的差价所得，暂免征收个人所得税。自2026年1月1日至2027年12月31日，对 个人投资者持有创新企业CDR取得 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. stock market saw collective gains with the Dow Jones up by 1.21%, Nasdaq by 1.18%, and S&P 500 by 1.16% [4] - Notable increases in storage stocks, with SanDisk rising over 10% and a year-to-date increase of over 111% [4] - International oil prices experienced slight increases, with light crude oil futures up by 0.43% to $60.62 per barrel and Brent crude up by 0.49% to $65.24 per barrel [4] Group 2 - The Chinese government announced a temporary exemption from personal income tax on capital gains from the transfer of CDRs for individual investors from January 1, 2026, to December 31, 2027 [6] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology emphasized the need for a safety monitoring platform for the operation of new energy vehicles [7] - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development plans to promote smart construction and new building methods during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [8] Group 3 - The People's Bank of China called for accelerated construction of a cross-border payment system to enhance connectivity in cross-border payments [9] - The State Financial Supervision Administration released new regulations on administrative licensing procedures to improve the efficiency and standardization of financial regulatory processes [8] Group 4 - Longfor Group responded to rumors about splitting its global telecommunications business for independent listing, stating no decisions have been made [13] - Temu's Turkish office faced a dawn raid, marking a second incident in Europe within a month, raising concerns about compliance risks for cross-border e-commerce [15] - Pinduoduo was fined 100,000 yuan for failing to report tax information as required, highlighting regulatory scrutiny in the e-commerce sector [17] Group 5 - Nike announced a leadership change in its Greater China region, with Angela Dong set to step down and Cathy Sparks appointed as the new vice president and general manager [22] - New Oriental launched a "retirement club" aimed at engaging retirees in educational and social activities, reflecting a trend in elder education and wellness [24] - Zhipu AI announced a temporary limit on the sale of its GLM Coding Plan due to increased demand and resource constraints [26]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the origins of currency, highlighting the "Saint King Creation Theory" as a historical perspective and contrasting it with Sima Qian's more analytical view that links the emergence of currency to the development of trade and commerce [4][6][7]. Group 1: Historical Perspectives on Currency - The "Saint King Creation Theory" posits that currency was initially invented by a wise king, a view prevalent in ancient civilizations including China [4][5]. - Historical records indicate that the earliest discussions on the origin of currency in China can be traced back to the time of King Jing of Zhou, where the opposition to the issuance of large denomination currency was based on the need to aid the people during disasters [5][6]. - This theory influenced later scholars, such as Du You and Hong Zun, who referenced it in their works, indicating its significant impact on the understanding of currency in ancient society [6]. Group 2: Sima Qian's Contributions - Sima Qian's insights on currency are primarily found in his works "Pingzun Shu" and "Huozhi Liezhuan," where he emphasizes that the rise of various forms of currency is fundamentally linked to the smooth operation of agricultural and commercial exchanges [7]. - He argues that the emergence of currency is a natural result of the interconnectedness of agriculture and commerce, marking a significant departure from the idealistic views of the "Saint King Creation Theory" [7]. - Sima Qian's perspective laid a scientific and objective foundation for the subsequent discussions on the essence of currency, challenging the previously dominant idealistic interpretations [7].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China emphasizes the importance of steadily advancing high-level financial openness while maintaining national financial security [1] Group 1: Financial Policy and Strategy - The meeting highlighted the need to actively participate in and promote global financial governance reform [1] - It was noted that practical financial diplomacy and multilateral currency and financial cooperation should be conducted [1] - The advancement of the internationalization of the Renminbi is a key focus [1] Group 2: Payment Systems and Digital Currency - There is a commitment to continuously build and develop a multi-channel, widely accessible cross-border payment system for the Renminbi [1] - The steady development of the digital Renminbi is also a priority [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the accelerated development and application of digital currencies globally, particularly focusing on the importance of establishing a self-controlled cross-border payment system for the Renminbi (RMB) to enhance financial security and support the internationalization of the RMB [2][4]. Summary by Sections Global Digital Currency Landscape - The global development and application of digital currencies have entered a fast track, with major economies accelerating their Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) layouts [4]. - The evolving international geopolitical landscape has made financial infrastructure security a crucial component of national security [4]. RMB Internationalization and Cross-Border Payment System - The 20th National Congress report of the Communist Party of China calls for the orderly promotion of RMB internationalization, while the 14th Five-Year Plan suggests enhancing capital account openness and building a self-controlled cross-border payment system for the RMB [4]. - A multi-channel and widely covered RMB cross-border payment system has been largely established, highlighting its strategic significance for financial security and international financial discourse [4]. Challenges in Cross-Border Payments - Cross-border payments face challenges such as high costs, low efficiency, lack of transparency, and limited access, primarily due to long payment chains, high compliance costs, and insufficient trust among entities [4]. - Ongoing geopolitical tensions further increase uncertainties in cross-border payments [4]. Strategic Importance of Self-Controlled Payment Systems - Establishing a self-controlled RMB cross-border payment system is crucial for ensuring financial security, supporting RMB internationalization, and enhancing international financial influence [4]. - In the context of global payment systems facing geopolitical risks, a self-controlled RMB cross-border payment system can inject new vitality into RMB internationalization [4]. Call for Contributions - The editorial team of Tsinghua Financial Review has initiated a call for papers to explore the strategic positioning, technological pathways, and institutional arrangements of digital RMB in the cross-border payment system [5]. - The aim is to provide forward-looking insights and policy recommendations for the stable and long-term internationalization of the RMB and participation in global financial governance reform [5]. Submission Guidelines - The submission should be original and unpublished, with a suggested word count of 4,000 to 6,000 words, including charts and graphs [8]. - The deadline for submission is December 15, 2025, with specific formatting and content requirements outlined [10].