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锅圈(02517):深度报告:万店规模奠定龙头地位,爆品×会员×新渠道构建三维护城河
Guohai Securities· 2025-07-10 08:35
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The report provides an in-depth analysis of the company's sustainable growth logic in the "at-home dining" market, addressing three key questions: how the scale of 10,000 stores translates into competitive barriers, how to capture opportunities in a fragmented market, and how supply chain and channel innovations create differentiated advantages [8] - The company has established a leading position with a store count of 10,150, optimizing its cost structure through a vertical supply chain [8][11] - The "at-home dining" market is experiencing rapid growth, with a projected CAGR of 20.7% from 2022 to 2027, indicating significant opportunities in lower-tier markets [8][31] - The company employs a strategy of explosive products, membership ecosystems, and channel innovations to build a competitive moat [8] Market Data - As of July 9, 2025, the company's current price is HKD 3.39, with a market capitalization of approximately HKD 8,999 million [5] - The company has a retail market share of 3.0% in the "at-home dining" segment, ranking first in China [38] Financial Performance - The company achieved a revenue of RMB 64.70 billion in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 6.17% [16] - The projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are RMB 71.83 billion, RMB 80.36 billion, and RMB 90.80 billion, respectively [9] - The net profit for 2024 was RMB 2.31 billion, with forecasts of RMB 3.40 billion, RMB 3.96 billion, and RMB 4.63 billion for the following years [9] Competitive Advantages - The company has optimized its product offerings and channels, with a focus on explosive products and a robust membership system, resulting in a registered membership of 41.3 million by the end of 2024 [8][58] - The company has established six production facilities to enhance its supply chain capabilities, which helps in cost optimization and product quality [50][52] Growth Strategy - The company plans to add 10,000 new stores over the next five years, focusing on expanding into lower-tier markets [57] - The establishment of a new production base in Hainan is expected to enhance supply chain efficiency and support the company's growth objectives [57]