Core Insights - The company, Guoquan, has reported its best half-year results since its listing, achieving a revenue of 3.24 billion yuan and a net profit of 183 million yuan in the first half of 2025, marking a year-on-year growth of 21.2% and 113.22% respectively [1][7] - Following a decline in performance in the first half of 2024, Guoquan has successfully returned to growth, surprising the market amid the fading trend of the "stay-at-home economy" [1][6] Company Background - Founded by Yang Mingchao, Guoquan has evolved from a grassroots entrepreneur to a leader in the restaurant industry, with a valuation of over 10 billion yuan [1][2] - Yang's journey includes various entrepreneurial ventures, leading to the establishment of a successful hot pot brand, "Little Stool," which peaked at over 1,000 stores before facing increased competition [2][3] Business Model and Strategy - In 2015, Guoquan was established to provide raw materials for hot pot restaurants, and in 2017, it opened its first hot pot ingredient store, catering to the growing demand for home dining [3][4] - The company has seen rapid expansion, with store numbers increasing from 4,300 to over 10,300 between 2020 and 2023, primarily through franchise models [4][6] Recent Developments - After facing challenges post-pandemic, including a decline in customer spending and increased competition, Guoquan implemented a strategic adjustment known as the "seedling plan" to enhance customer retention and optimize store operations [6][8] - The company has resumed store expansion, targeting lower-tier markets, with plans to open an additional 10,000 stores over the next five years, focusing on China's rural areas [1][8] Financial Performance - Guoquan's membership base has grown significantly, reaching 50.3 million members, a 62.8% increase year-on-year, with prepaid card amounts also rising by 27% [8] - The company has diversified its product offerings, including a focus on barbecue products, which has helped stabilize seasonal revenue fluctuations [8] Future Outlook - Yang Mingchao is exploring international expansion, with teams assessing markets in Southeast Asia and Europe for potential growth opportunities [9]

Core Viewpoint - Guoquan Food (Shanghai) Co., Ltd. has regained confidence, reporting significant growth in revenue and profit for the first half of 2023, with a focus on solidifying its existing market base and preparing for future expansion [2][4]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2023, Guoquan achieved revenue of 3.24 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 21.6%; gross profit was 717 million RMB, up 17.8%, with a gross margin of 22.1%; net profit reached 190 million RMB, a substantial increase of 122.5% [2][4]. - Core operating profit also stood at 190 million RMB, reflecting a growth of 52.3% year-on-year [2]. Strategic Focus - The company has adopted a strategy of "rooting down and growing up," focusing on consolidating its existing stores, enhancing membership, and improving online operations [4]. - Guoquan plans to accelerate the opening of new stores, targeting various market scenarios, including community kitchens and new town models [7]. Product Development - The company has developed a barbecue product matrix over the past four years, which has helped mitigate seasonal performance fluctuations [6]. - Guoquan aims to continue leveraging its strengths in hot pot offerings while expanding its product range to include more barbecue options [6]. Membership Growth - As of June 30, 2025, Guoquan reported 50.3 million registered members, a year-on-year increase of 62.8%, with a prepaid card balance of 590 million RMB, up 37.2% [9][10]. - The membership system is seen as a key driver for future growth, with plans to increase membership to 60 million by the end of the year [10]. International Expansion - Guoquan is exploring international markets, particularly in Southeast Asia and Europe, with various potential models for expansion, including establishing supply chains and creating new brands [11]. - The company is currently in the exploratory phase for international expansion while maintaining a primary focus on domestic market growth [11].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking the first coverage of the stock [5][12]. Core Insights - The company is a leading one-stop solution brand for home dining in China, ranking first among all retailers. It focuses on hot pot and barbecue meal categories, providing diverse, high-quality, and cost-effective products through a franchise model, establishing a significant scale advantage with a community central kitchen concept. After experiencing operational fluctuations during the pandemic, the company has innovated its store model, implemented a best-selling product strategy, and strengthened its membership ecosystem, leading to a recovery in same-store sales and a return to growth. Looking ahead, the company is expected to achieve sustainable growth through "quality supply, cost-effectiveness, and food equity" [3][11][14]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has expanded its sales network from B2B to B2C since its establishment in 2015, growing from 1,441 stores in early 2020 to 10,150 stores by the end of 2024, covering all provinces in China [27][28]. Industry Analysis - The home dining market in China has seen rapid growth, with a market size increasing from 3,248.2 billion RMB in 2018 to 5,615.6 billion RMB in 2022, reflecting a CAGR of 14.7%. The proportion of home dining meal products is expected to rise from 4.55% in 2022 to 13.22% by 2027 [11][49][54]. Competitive Advantages - The company offers a three-pronged competitive advantage through products, channels, and supply chain integration. Its products are generally priced 60%-80% lower than social dining channels and about 20% lower than supermarket retail channels. The average profit margin for franchisees is between 8%-10%, indicating a healthy and sustainable model [11][12][14]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 71.2 billion RMB, 82.4 billion RMB, and 95.2 billion RMB, with corresponding growth rates of 10.1%, 15.6%, and 15.6%. The gross margin is expected to improve slightly, reaching 22.4% by 2027. The core operating net profit is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 20% over three years [12][16].